Why We Are So Lousy
by roguejim on Aug 12, 2009 8:24 AM CDT
50 comments
| Starting Pitcher | 2008 ERA | Career ERA | 2009 ERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yovani Gallardo | 1.88 | 3.45 | 3.54 |
| Jeff Suppan | 4.96 | 4.67 | 5.27* |
| Braden Looper | 4.16 | 4.06 | 4.99** |
| Dave Bush | 4.18 | 4.56 | 5.67*** |
| Manny Parra | 4.39 | 4.98 | 6.26*** |
| Seth McClung | 4.02 | 5.48 | 5.03 |
| Carlos Villanueva | 4.07 | 4.31 | 6.05*** |
Not that this is a surprise, exactly --- we all knew that our starting pitching had been a major disappointment. However, I was a little surprised to learn that every one of our starters is pitching worse than last year, every single one of them. Moreover, every one of them not a Klingon is also pitching worse than their career numbers (and McClung only gets a break because his numbers in Tampa were just God-awful). Even worse, only YoGa and McClung are not having their worst seasons in the past 6 years.
A while ago we were talking about the surliness of Doug Melvin. I feel bad for the guy. In the offseason, he tries to build a pitching staff, and figures, "well, we lose Sheets here, but we bring Gallardo back; we lose CC, let's try Looper," blissfully unaware that his entire starting rotation is going to tank, and tank hard.
(You know...this doesn't reflect particularly well on Bill Castro, either.)
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It may have been that the biggest loss we suffered this off-season
was Mike Maddux. Someone will take the fall for this, and while Melvin’s poor off-season does not reflect well with the results, I’m thinking Stan Kyles is out with Castro going back to his role as a bullpen coach.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Aug 12, 2009 9:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm starting to rethink my whole "Mike Maddux" was over-rated belief. I still think he was, just maybe not as much as I thought...
by Mykenk on Aug 12, 2009 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you
I thought he was overrated too, but man, it’s hard to explain everyone sucking at once.
Plus, I’d like to point out that Gallardo is not an “ace,” not yet anyway. Maybe he’ll get there someday, but he’s still a #2 pitcher. (One, I hastily add, that we’re lucky to have. Otherwise, our “ace” is Braden Looper and his 4.99 ERA.)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 12, 2009 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm curious
Is there a way to approximate the Brewers record if we were able to replace each pitcher’s ERA this year with either last year, career or projected 09, whichever is higher?
by Getting Yosted on Aug 12, 2009 9:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know...
but I’d be curious too.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 12, 2009 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's too many variables, IMO.
If our pitchers had a lower era (or last years ERA, or whatever), then, most likely, they’d be pitching more innings than they’ve actually thrown in 2009. That’d lead to fewer bull pen innings, which would likely lower the bullpen ERA, so we’d probably have to adjust that as well.
Plus, ERA doesn’t give a good measure of “runs/game,” it’s an average, so we’d have to figure out what to plug in, simply throwing a 4.5 ERA for every game in place of actual results is going to result in bad results, especially for a small sample size like a single season. That’s potentially statistically feasible over, say, 100 seasons, but a single season will have too much random variation in the formation of a person’s ERA that it’d be way too much work, and I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t be statistically tractable.
by Mykenk on Aug 12, 2009 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why We Are So Lousy
I don’t think Mike Maddux, Bill Castro would make a difference. Are pitching woes have not been addressed in the last 3 years. Doug Melvin has been given more success credit than he deserved. I think he has hurt our farm system especially through the Limbrick trade and that the CC trade last year was more of a marketing ploy for ticket sales this year. It never helped our situation but temporarily. We need to stay patient with YoGa and Parra. We gave up to soon on De La Rosa who is having a very good year for Colorado. These guys are all in mid 20’s and dangerous.
by aotm19 on Aug 12, 2009 9:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That Limbrick trade
really brought in some valuable Limericks, though
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Aug 12, 2009 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There once was a southpaw from Nantucket...
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 12, 2009 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, DLR is tearing it up for the Rockies... wait. no he's not.
by Mykenk on Aug 12, 2009 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually he kinda is.
Remember that he’s playing in Colorado and that defense isn’t great anymore. He’s more his 4.0 FIP than has 4.7 ERA.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Aug 12, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, serviceable 3-4 starter. He's also 28, I don't really think we gave up on him too soon, as hanging on to him and letting him develop for 4 more years would have gotten in the way, more than likely.
by Mykenk on Aug 12, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry "back of the rotation starter," I know you don't like the arbitrary slotting.
by Mykenk on Aug 12, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's cheaper than Looper is filling the same spot, isn't he?
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 12, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he might be
Or he might not.
It’s not incorrect.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Aug 12, 2009 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's also not informative...
… and therefore not much of a response.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 12, 2009 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Information is for the weak!
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Aug 12, 2009 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
And the CC deal really hurt our farm system. Wouldn't it be great to be able to plug in Matt LaPorta... no where on our current roster?
by Mykenk on Aug 12, 2009 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
When you trade 9 Laportas, you’re not going to have much left.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Aug 12, 2009 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stands to reason
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 12, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can agree with some of that
It’s true, we haven’t really addressed our pitching that much in recent drafts, and a lot of our pitchers had gotten hurt while in the minors. However, it’s too early to say that the CC and Linebrink trades have been devastating to our farm system. So far, the pitchers we have given up for Linebrink haven’t amounted to much (yet), and remember we got two picks when Linebrink left.
As for De La Rosa, although I wish we still had him, I think it’s a stretch to say he’s having a “very good year.” He has a 4.78 ERA so far in 2009, and even outside of Colorado, it’s still 4.53 (with a 1.42 WHIP). He’d be a good, cheap arm to have, but it’s not like he’s a worldbeater.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 12, 2009 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The CC Trade
I guess what I meant was CC was more of a marketing ploy in the sense you get in the playoffs brings tix sales for next year. He really has not cost us in the farm system. Though it cost Yost his job and almost Melvin last tear I think the owner made a lot of the decisions than Melvin at the end of the year. DLR is pitching in the worst Pitchers stadium and he’s been healthy throughout his career. He would be a good 4 or 5 here. He’s still having a better year than 3/4’s of our staff
by aotm19 on Aug 12, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't getting into the playoffs and selling tickets the goal?
You make it sound like that’s a bad thing.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Aug 12, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Playoffs is not a bad thing
It’s not a bad thing. I guess I am a baseball pureist and I look at the longevity of this ball club. The CC trade was good for this tix sales for this season alone and did not really help the ballclub . I would like to see attendance numbers though in September. Especially if this pitching staff continues to give up double digit runs as they have more recently.
by aotm19 on Aug 12, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not to mention the extra revenue, that helps build the team future?
by Mykenk on Aug 12, 2009 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did it though? I hope we see some of that revenue spent in Winter Meetings this year because they sure didn’t last year. Except for Braun. ( I would like to see them try to lock up Fielder for some more years after this season)
by aotm19 on Aug 12, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know
Firefox is free and comes with a spellchecker.
by Getting Yosted on Aug 12, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So we should not try to get in the playoffs and sell lots of tickets this year, because we are trying to get in the playoffs and sell lots of tickets next year?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Aug 12, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I've said it before and I'll say it again
I would trade one World Series for 4 or 5 years of being the Pirates.
In a heartbeat.
It is what it is.
by coolig on Aug 12, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So basically...
you’d be happy with a higher-level version of the Pirates’ Drive for 75 approach – keep managing with both eyes on the long-term future in perpetuity and who cares if the team always finishes between 80 and 85 wins and never makes the playoffs? Nobody’s saying you should wreck the farm system for no reason, but sometimes you just have to take some risks when the potential payoff justifies it, and the Sabathia trade was an excellent example. (Would have been even if it hadn’t worked out.)
by Zeyes on Aug 12, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still not sure it's Bill Castro being poor
so much as Mike Maddux being so good. Bill Castro may very well be a replacement-level pitching coach, but he replaced a +4 pitching coach (to misuse the terminology). He could very well be merely poor in comparison.
Someone will have to take the fall at the end of the season. It’s either Doug Melvin or Bill Castro and it will probably be Castro, but I’m not convinced its deserved.
by ecocd on Aug 12, 2009 10:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The fall for what?
Expect Gallardo to be an ace = FAIL
Expect Parra to be a #2 = FAIL
Expect Bush to be a #3 = FAIL
Expect Looper to be a #4 = FAIL
Expect Soup to be a #5 = Slighly less of a FAIL
Every single member of our starting rotation is drastically underperforming, and the team isn’t anywhere near last place somehow. That’s a minor victory, isn’t it?
Actually, probably not.
by Mykenk on Aug 12, 2009 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not just luck or defense
Almost every starting pitcher they’ve run out there this year has been below average. The only expections are Parra and Gallardo.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Aug 12, 2009 10:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
How does PRAA compare to ERA+, just different measures against different bases?
by Mykenk on Aug 12, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's tRA
So it’s the expected amount of runs allowed based on walks, strikeouts, groundballs, line drives, and fly balls. The tRA number isn’t scaled to ERA, it’s runs per 9 innings including errors. The average is in the high 4 range. To get pitching runs above average, you figure out the number of runs per inning expected to be allowed compared to the average inning, and then multiply the difference between those by how many expected innings the pitcher pitched based on how many outs he got.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Aug 12, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You just keep that in mind.
It doesn’t work all the time, though. Yesterday I suggested to Garry Howard (I think that’s his name) in his JS Online chat that Anthony Witrado be moved to the comics section of the paper, but I don’t think that’s happened.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 12, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so much for my comment about how its not all Castro's fault
I guess Doug/Mark disagree
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Aug 12, 2009 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Although I feel bad for Castro…really, what’s the worst that can happen, teamwise? It’s a pretty low-risk move.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 12, 2009 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
those stats say it all
And you can’t even say that McClung is regressing to the mean because we have no way of telling if 2008 was an outlier season or not—because everyone is sucking compared to last year.
Also, as I think I brought up in the last “they shouldn’t have let Maddux go” thread, Looper was working with Dave Duncan last year, who also is probably a few wins above replacement coach. ;)
If anything, both McClung and Parra liked working with Bosio, so there is that….
by morineko on Aug 12, 2009 12:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My Expectations Are Largely Based On Projections
PITCHER: ERA / MARCEL/ZIPS
Yovani Gallardo: 3.54 / 3.59 / 3.73
Jeff Suppan: 5.27 / 4.82 / 5.04
Braden Looper: 4.99 / 4.42 / 4.53
Dave Bush: 5.67 / 4.29 / 4.50
Manny Parra: 6.26 / 4.44 / 4.57
Bush was doing just fine until he decided to start playing hurt. Suppan is pretty much just Suppan. Looper Parra have been major disappointments (especially Parra, obviously). Suggesting that Yo has underperformed doesn’t make much sense to me.
by rluzinski on Aug 12, 2009 8:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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