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What if the Brewers had signed CC Sabathia?

Doug Melvin is taking some heat lately for sending the Brewers into the 2009 season without the pitching depth necessary to reach the heights many fans expected. Hindsight is 20/20, but there's a relatively common sentiment among fans that Melvin should have seen the ineptitude of this pitching staff coming and made more moves to improve it.

Today, I want to take a look at one of the moves he tried to make, re-signing CC Sabathia, and see where that would have left the Brewers in 2009 and beyond.

What would the Brewers have gotten from Sabathia?

Let's assume, for the moment, that Sabathia would have accepted a five year, $100 million deal from the Brewers despite the fact that it would have been significantly below market value in both years and total dollars. Sabathia is having a pretty good season as a Yankee, posting a 3.64 ERA in 170.2 innings of work. FanGraphs estimates his value at 4.1 Wins Above Replacement for 2009.

I'll take the optimistic approach and assume that Sabathia would have performed somewhat better against weaker competition in the NL, and I'll even give him an added bonus for being better than the average pitcher at the plate. Let's say he would have been worth roughly 4.5 wins to the 2009 Brewers, to this point.

Star-divide

What would they have had to give up?

Paying $20 million per season to CC Sabathia would almost certainly have meant the end of their offseason spending, and probably created a need to cut some payroll. Here are three players that likely would not have been Brewers in 2009 if Sabathia had signed:

Braden Looper. Of the three players the Brewers would have missed out on, Looper is the one that would not have been missed. Looper has actually been worth -.6 WAR in 2009, so by replacing him with Sabathia, the Brewers gain roughly 5.1 wins. With that said, replacing Looper with Sabathia would have improved the top of the rotation but not its depth: guys like Mike Burns, Seth McClung and Carlos Villanueva would still have been forced into action in the rotation.

Trevor Hoffman. It's unlikely the Brewers would have had $5 million to give to Hoffman after paying Sabathia. Hoffman has been as good or better than any of us could have expected from a 41 year old closer coming into the season, and has been worth 1.1 WAR. Since the back of the bullpen has been really weak this season, it's possible the arm that replaced Hoffman might actually have been significantly below replacement level (Jorge Julio, anyone?).

Mike Cameron. With CC Sabathia on the roster and an Opening Day payroll projected for $100 million, the Brewers probably wouldn't have been able to resist the temptation to trade Cameron and his $10 million salary to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera. Cameron has been one of the most valuable Brewers this season at 3 WAR. Assuming the Brewers got Cabrera in return, they would have saved about $8 million, but Cabrera has only posted 1.1 WAR.

Where does that leave them?

By adding Sabathia and Cabrera and losing Looper, Hoffman and Cameron, the Brewers would have added 5.6 WAR and lost 3.5, for a net gain of 2.1 wins. Adding two wins to the current Brewer team would make them 58-56, half a game behind the second place Cubs and five full games back of the Cardinals. As of this morning, Baseball Prospectus gave the Brewers a 3% chance of making the playoffs. The Cubs, who are slightly ahead of where the Brewers would be with Sabathia, are given an 18% chance. So, the Brewers would have committed $100 million to improve their 2009 playoff chances by roughly 12-14%.

Also worth noting: When Sabathia left for the Yankees, the Brewers received a supplemental draft pick and the Yankees' second round pick in the June draft, used to select Kentrail Davis and Max Walla. So, by signing Sabathia the Brewers would have lost both of those picks and the organizational depth that came with them.

Moving forward

Looper, Hoffman and Cameron represent roughly $22 million in salary that will be off the books after this season. Even with that salary gone, the Brewers already have roughly $75-80 million owed to players under contract or arbitration eligible for next season.

If Sabathia had signed, the Brewers would have already had between $95-100 million committed for 2010, creating the very real scenario that they'd need to cut even more payroll to avoid operating at a loss. J.J. Hardy probably would have been traded either way, but Prince Fielder may have had to join him if the Brewers were to have any kind of payroll flexibility to make a move this offseason.

Summing up

As I mentioned in the open, hindsight is 20/20 and we all wish the Brewers had more pitching. With that said, adding the best pitcher on the free agent market this offseason, even at below market value, would only have improved the Brewers by roughly two wins, and cost them a significant amount in flexibility down the road.

Doug Melvin is taking some heat for not doing more to shore up the pitching staff, but given the options he had, I think he did the best he could, given what he had to work with.

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What if they didn't sign Sabathia

And instead traded Cameron for other pieces and used the $20 million dollars to sign multiple other pitchers?

Oh, and if I remember correctly, Hoffman being out (injured) is why Julio was on the team in the first place.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 14, 2009 12:45 PM CDT reply actions  

What pitchers?

Burnett? Lowe? Both of those pitchers went for a very high price and would have been roughly equal to the WARs of the other players we picked up.

by zzzmanwitz on Aug 14, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Lame copout: I don't know

Just thinking it’s another angle that could have been explored.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 14, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Especially if we're using the WAR people have actually put up this year

Is there a way to spend/trade those guys to get enough WAR to get to a 50% or greater chance of the playoffs?

Really, we should be looking at what the projections were at the time the guys were signed, I think, since I doubt Looper was slated for -.6 WAR when they signed him, and so on. But if we are looking in hindsight assuming everyone does exactly what they’ve done so far this year, let’s try and find the best possible way to spend that $20+ million.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 14, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

That'd be an interesting study.

I think I have an idea for a post for tomorrow.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 14, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

I know...

and i feel that that option has been explored. The point is, the only 3 pitchers in the market wouldn’t have added that much value to the team for the price tag that was being asked. And by signing those high end FA we would have not only given up a 1st round pick, we would have been hand cuffed financially for the next few years.

I don’t disagree with looking at situations in a new way, but it really comes down to one thing. For a team like the Brewers to compete year in and year out, they need to do a better job developing pitching.

Average pitching costs too much to sign (look at Jeff Suppan). Above average pitching is INSANELY expensive to sign on the FA market.

by zzzmanwitz on Aug 14, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Vazquez

If we’re going by this year’s stats, Vazquez was the best deal of the offseason. He would have been the most efficient expediture.

by cwolf20 on Aug 14, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wait no, I'm an idiot.

He was traded for. For some reason I thought he was a free agent.

by cwolf20 on Aug 14, 2009 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

another thought...

This may not add much to the equation, but, without Cameron we would probably be plus 1 TGJ and minus one Jody Gerut.

by familyguy01 on Aug 14, 2009 12:59 PM CDT reply actions  

I think it's a lame premise.

Half a dozen teams in the MLB would have signed CC for 5yr/100 million dollars. Heck, the Indians were rumored to offer nearly the same deal in the 2007 offseason.

by Toxicadam on Aug 14, 2009 1:06 PM CDT reply actions  

As long as it's only used to support the notion that even the best-possible outcome wouldn't have been all that great.

Once we’re getting into something like TheJay’s idea above, finetuning the whole thing until – maybe – actually being able to prove that there was some ideal configuration that would have made the Brewers into current playoff contenders, then it becomes a bit counter-productive. Because there will be people who will run with the idea and turn it into “Melvin didn’t do enough!!”, completely ignoring how utterly far-fetched that potential scenario would have been.

Another puss who hides behind crap.

by Zeyes on Aug 14, 2009 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Did you read the "Summing up" paragraph?

I acknowledge that the deal suggested would have been below market value to make a point, that even if Sabathia had signed really cheap, getting him might not have improved the Brewers enough to make them a contender.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 14, 2009 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think they would have dealt Cameron if they had signed Sabathia.

They purposely left some flexibility in the payroll, once Sabathia didn’t sign, for the purpose of adding a player at the trade deadline. Just because they didn’t actually make a signficant move doesn’t mean the dollars available to do it were gone. It’s pretty obvious they wouldn’t have signed Hoffman or Looper, but I don’t think the 20 million salary of Sabathia would have had to be offset dollar for dollar. They might not have brought Counsell back and they might not have been able to deal for Lopez, though, and with as valuable as Counsell has been this year the point might be valid anyway.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 14, 2009 1:31 PM CDT reply actions  

I disagree. Missing out on CC was a blow to Milwaukee.

However, by resigning CC Sabathia, bigger named free agents would be more open to sign with Milwaukee. Kind of like if CC was resigned, it was a sure thing Ben Sheets would take a pay cut and resign with Milwaukee. Also, with CC here, more games would be sold out and plenty of CC jerseys would be sold to bring in extra revenue. If needed, the Brewers could possibly raise ticket prices. Would we have been able to sign Trevor Hoffman? Possibly, cause he wants a World Series ring and with CC on the rotation, we would have better odds. Without CC, we were projected to finish .500 at best. With CC, we were predicted to return to the playoffs. So, my point is, with his salary, there are other marketing and sales that would be adjusted and the Brewers would be better situated. I will say this though, at least Milwaukee tried to resign CC Sabathia and gave him a great offer.

by Jabooty on Aug 14, 2009 1:36 PM CDT reply actions  

As Idealistic as your post is...

Lets get real. Its all about the money. Signing CC would have really constrained the brewers payroll, making it very tough for the Brewers to sign many other key FAs.

by zzzmanwitz on Aug 14, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's not all about the money

I read an interview when CC left about how he wanted to be a part of a team that was going to win championships. Apparently the Brewers didn’t do it for him.

"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender!"

RIP Nick Adenhart - Stop Drunk Driving

by kirbir on Aug 14, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Blah blah blah.

I’m sure he said it. I’m also sure that it’s pretty convenient to conclude that the only team to offer him 160 million was also the team most likely to get him rings. Concluding that the Yankees were more likely to compete for titles than the Brewers is fine, and probably correct given the financial disparity between the teams. But as I’m quite certain there were teams more than willing to pay him 20 million per year for 5 years (like the Brewers were) that had better teams and rotations than the Yankees, I have to conclude that CC is full of crap. He picked the team he picked because they offered him the biggest pile of cash with a solid chance to win titles over teams that would have given him smaller piles of cash and better chance to win titles. That means that in the end the money mattered more.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 14, 2009 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

Who?

Please name these teams that had better rotations and better chances to win titles than the Yankees and would be willing to offer Sabathia $20M/yr for 5 years.

by sjlee on Aug 14, 2009 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

At 20M/yr for 5 years...

… I think the list of teams that would have been interested would have been much longer than it was once it became clear that the Yankees were putting a 7 year offer on the table. But, even among the teams that showed interest in Sabathia at the onset of free agency (or at the trade deadline in July), the teams that I think had better rotations than the Yankees at the time (which was prior to their other FA acquisitions) included the Dodgers, the Phils, the Angels, and if you look at rotation only, the Giants. Their pursuit of Sabathia at free agency became luke-warm (or worse) only after Sabathia turned down the 5 year 100M offer from the Brewers and the Yanks announced that their initial offer was 7 years and 140M, which they later upped to the 160M/7yr deal he eventually signed.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 15, 2009 4:06 AM CDT up reply actions  

Eh, I'm skeptical

“Kind of like if CC was resigned, it was a sure thing Ben Sheets would take a pay cut and resign with Milwaukee.”

Well, first of all, I didn’t get the impression at all that that was a sure thing, and second of all, we should be glad it didn’t happen…

Also, I don’t think the extra jerseys and stuff would be bringing in that much more revenue. Yeah, we’d sell more tickets, but we’re already selling a ton anyway; I think the overall difference would be fairly negligible.

Furthermore, I don’t think big free agents aren’t open to signing with Milwaukee; we just can’t afford them.

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Aug 14, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm going to have to disagree

The amount of revenue generated by Sabathia jerseys and tickets still wouldn’t allow them to sign any big free agents. We would never have been able to sign Hoffman would have tried Villanueva and McClung as closer.

As much as I would like to have CC back, I wouldn’t want him at the price it would cost. I don’t think you can take payroll flexibility for granted with a small market team.

"my goodness"

by BrewHaHeather on Aug 14, 2009 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Interesting point

However, you’re making a couple big assumptions:

1. Sabathia on the roster will attract big name free agents. Yes, it would have made the Brewers an automatic playoff contender, but don’t forget that the Brewers would still need to pay for these guys. Players sometimes take a paycut to play for a contender, but it only goes so far.

2. More revenue. Milwaukee is a small-market… the revenue ceiling isn’t unlimited. In addition, the increased revenue will not impact a team right away. It would take at least an entire season before management would be able to put the additional revenue to good use.

by sjlee on Aug 14, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

Does it matter that the Loopster has 10 wins?

Or that the Brewers are 14-10 in Looper starts? When you say that the Brewers gain 5.1 wins by replacing Looper with CC, are you saying the Brewers would have been 19-5 if CC started those games?

Maybe I don’t understand WAR so much, but for this exercise, isn’t it more accurate, if talking about wins, to look at how many wins Looper actually has? He certainly doesn’t deserve the run support he’s gotten, but nevertheless, in the June 3 game against Florida, if we score 9 runs, it doesn’t matter if CC pitches a gem or if Looper doesn’t make it out of the 5th.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 14, 2009 1:50 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Not really...

What if CC was pitching the games that the brewers lost when Looper was pitching?

5-6 @ Cincy
4-10 @ Detroit
8-12 vs LA Dodgers
7-11 @ San Diego
6-13 vs San Diego

There is a good chance we would have won at least 4 of those games.

by zzzmanwitz on Aug 14, 2009 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sure

On the other hand, CC has 10 games this season where he didn’t provide a quality start. A 3.64 ERA is great, but he’s not pitching this season like he did for us last season.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 14, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

He's also in the AL East

On average, he’s facing a lot tougher teams than the he would if he were in the NL Central. He wasn’t going to have a sub-2 ERA this year but I could see him easily putting up a sub-3 ERA in the NL Central.

One interesting note – when you breakdown by catcher, he has been much worse with Posada as his battery-mate versus the other Yankees catchers. It’s very possibly small sample-size (11 games with Posada, 15 with others) but it’s interesting.

by kingcharlesxii on Aug 14, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe they want Kendall to catch for him?

You know, since they worked so well together last year and everything.

by NoahJ on Aug 14, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Statistically

this is an insignificant discussion.

Sabathia was NOT NEVER coming back to Milwaukee. And it wasn’t Melvin’s fault, you can bet. Had Melvin been the Yankee GM, he would have been “successful.”

End of story….

"At times I'm emotional," --Ryan Braun, 7/7/09

by heybatterbatter on Aug 14, 2009 1:57 PM CDT reply actions  

I couldn't agree more

with the last sentance in the “summing up” paragraph. I was listening to the radio after Tuesday’s game and somone called in and wondered why Melvin didn’t sign Derek Lowe. I don’t know where people (not necessarily anyone here) get the idea that the Brewers can just go out and sign the most expensive free agents out there. We aren’t the Yankees with a bottomless checkbook and Melvin did the best with what he had.

Melvin probably wouldn’t be taking as much heat for this season if Weeks was healthy and Bush hadn’t been hit by Hanley Ramirez. Our record would probably look a bit different.

"my goodness"

by BrewHaHeather on Aug 14, 2009 2:21 PM CDT reply actions  

Replacement value

I’m not sure about this ‘wins replacement value’ and other new fangled stats you kids come up with. It sounds like an interesting stat, but does it include the tendency for Sabathia to be the medicine for what ails a tired bullpen? He’s pitched 33 more innings than Looper so far, about the equivalent of never having had to use Mike Burns.

But I think the overall argument is solid – we couldn’t afford him no matter how good he is.

by nullacct on Aug 14, 2009 2:23 PM CDT reply actions  

In this case

Hindsight is more like 20/60.

He should have seen the entire starting pitching staff having the worst year of their careers, many of them by wide margins? If the pitching staff just performs to their career norms or preseason projections the team is probably around or ahead of where KL projects the team with the signing of CC, without having a huge chunk of their payroll tied up for the next 4 years. Melvin made the right bet.

by Getting Yosted on Aug 14, 2009 2:34 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

One oversight

The Starting pitchers struggles have leaked to the bullpen as they’ve had to carry more and more of the load. Having a workhorse like CC could have helped perserve the bullpen to add more WAR to the pen.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Aug 14, 2009 2:42 PM CDT reply actions  

If CC had resigned with Milwaukee

Our bullpen wouldn’t be as exhausted as it is today. If you want to go on about Looper’s wins, that’s fine. That’s the reason I don’t give him such a hard time, but it’s not strictly because of his performance. As of 2 weeks ago, Looper lead all MLB pitchers in run support. Maybe it’s a superficial thing, I don’t know. As far as Sheets resigning, that’s what I heard. It was a rumor, not a fact. Also, if CC had resigned, ticket prices would be increased and as loyal fans Milwaukee has, the seats would still be filled up. Especially if we wanted to watch CC pitch. Our bullpen is struggling largely because we are lucky if we can have our starting pitcher get through the 6th Inning!!!

by Jabooty on Aug 14, 2009 2:54 PM CDT reply actions  

Yes, people seriously thought a package of Bill Hall and Jeff Suppan would land a Cy Young winning pitcher.

this is why I only listen to sports radio for a laugh

"my goodness"

by BrewHaHeather on Aug 14, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sadly...

There are more than a handful of fans who think the same way.

by sjlee on Aug 14, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

even more sadly

I think my dad thought along those lines too

"my goodness"

by BrewHaHeather on Aug 14, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cameron/Cabrera trade

I thought the trade fell through because the Brewers weren’t willing to pay a portion of his contract… not because they didn’t want to make the trade.

by sjlee on Aug 14, 2009 3:02 PM CDT reply actions  

I think it's probably some of both.

But the Yankees wanting money from the Brewers was the nail in the coffin.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 14, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes.

This and the Yanks asking for the Crew to pay part of the contract really pissed off Doug, so he ended things there, a wise choice, IMO.

by C* on Aug 14, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

nice crystal ball you got there.You cant just add and subtract and have two more wins this season.Noone can possible buy into this dribble.This team we have now was asked to give more than they were expected,because the pitching was weak.With a CC,..that doesnt happen.We have a healthy staff,and more than your two wins more.Chemistry is a huge factor as well.Confidence.Would CC have attracted a few players,that we couldnt attract this year,…would they have came here for less?

 Bunch of what ifs…..but dont you go trying to sell people that Melvin does no wrong.Hes human.And right now,that team is in fact making alot of money,selling a mediocre product……so hes doing his job,…just not in the direction the fans would like.
 Castro as pitching coach?Macha and Randolph sharing the bench?Was there really anything that Wrong with Yost?These are questions you should be addressing now,not what could have happened…but what did in fact happen,and how it was a mistake.

by bog_72 on Aug 14, 2009 3:58 PM CDT reply actions  

Wouldn't it take a crystal ball to know whether or not what happened was a mistake?

Maybe things had to happen in a certain way to get us to the World Series next year so Counsell can be MVP.

"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender!"

RIP Nick Adenhart - Stop Drunk Driving

by kirbir on Aug 14, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes, if only we'd signed Sabathia other free agents would have stampeded towards Milwaukee.

And the Brewers would carry a $140 million payroll right now, or something, I guess.

Another puss who hides behind crap.

by Zeyes on Aug 14, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Brewers would have signed them cheap

just the Yankees did with Burnett and Teixeira

also. C.C. poops gold, solving all the budget problems

by CheezeconQueso on Aug 14, 2009 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

I know gold is somewhat maleable

but that sounds really painful

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Aug 14, 2009 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

Perhaps

Perhaps you are correct that the team would be much better with CC this year perhaps you are wrong and the article is right. I wouldn’t say Melvin can do no wrong. What I would say is he probably did the best with what he could. Signing another big name pitcher at 20 million per year would have handicaped us. I wouldnt have wanted to spend a ton on Lowe given his age and the likelyhood that by the time the contract expired we would be wasting the money on him and that is not something Milwaukee can afford. The Brewers needed a pitcher not in his 30s if they were going to throw tons of money and a long term deal at the player.

Also for everyone saying the Brewers are making a ton of money. They most certainly will make money but not a whole lot. With the current payroll Mark A. said they would have to sell 2.8 Million tickets in order to just break even this season. We don’t have a huge media contract so most of our money comes from ticket sails. Currently 2.1 Million have gone to the ball park and while it looks like we will get at least 2.8 its doubtful the team will make millions of dollars in profit this year.

by Flanyboy on Aug 14, 2009 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

According to everything I've seen, they've already sold 2.8 million tickets...

… with two months to go. Now some of those pre-sold tickets may go unused if the team contiues to implode and that will cost them money, but this team is already profitable in 2009. I’ve got no idea if they’re making huge profits, but I think “millions of dollars in profit” is a safe bet unless they add significant payroll in the next two weeks.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 14, 2009 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Interesting

Before yesterday’s game, they were at 2.1 or 2.2MM in attendance. I projected that out and found that they’d need to have attendance of about 38k per game the rest of the way. I think that’s very attainable, considering that most of the weekend games should be practically sold out, and the Cubs come in during the week.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Aug 14, 2009 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Millions?

I doubt it will be more than a couple million…

They wont make 16 million like they did in 2007. So basically I am saying without alternative sources of revenue Melvin is a bit handicapped as far as what he can go out and get. They made a huge deal about CC being an exception. The amount of national media revenue and a huge increase in local media revenue that would come from having CC on your team is the only way they could have afforded a much larger payroll and even then they probably would have been in the red a bit.

Not looking to forward into the future but 2011 will be an interesting year. Prince’s 2 year deal will be up but he will have one final year under Brewers control. Suppan will be gone freeing 12 million. Lopper gone freeing 6 million. Hall’s contract will be paid out for 8 Million. They will have an additional 24 Million in payroll flexibility heading into 2011. Yes a lot will go to Yovanni who will be arb eligible. Hopefully 5 million or a little more will go to keeping Prince. I mean 5 million onto of the 10 million he gets next year. IE they could afford a 15 million dollar deal for prince. However they will still have significant payroll to play with.

by Flanyboy on Aug 14, 2009 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Woah

Your projection of wins added by CC is for an entire season, not up to date. So the Brewers wouldn’t be 2.1 wins ahead of where they are right now. They would only be 2/3 of the 2.1. That is 1.38 wins.

Also you are forgetting that the Brewers just offered a contract just to say they tried. If 20 million a year would get the job done then many other teams would have submitted that offer as well.

by gizmo6d9 on Aug 14, 2009 5:28 PM CDT reply actions  

Actually,

My projections are based on WAR accumulated so far this season by the players in question. So the 2.1 figure is accurate.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 14, 2009 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Just my opinion:

I do think that the pitching staff this year, in spite of the fact that so many guys are having their worst years simultaneously, was pretty obviously deficient at the beginning of the year. I also think that its obvious deficiency and eventual implosion are pretty damnin indictments of Melvin’s work as a GM in Milwaukee.

But I don’t think it has much of anything to do with mistakes made by Melvin this past offseason. There just weren’t a lot of good choices to be made once CC went to New York and even if, in some alternate universe, CC had resigned with Milwaukee, Bush would have gotten hurt, Suppan would have been Suppan, and Parra would have been Parra. It’s not like his signing would have been a panacea for the rotation, though it certainly would have delayed (though probably not eliminated) the implosion of the pen.

The rotation problem this year are Melvin’s fault because (aside from YoGa and Parra, at least arguably) this organization has been terrible at selecting and developing starting pitchers. It’s not unreasonable to expect that over the course of 5 years and 250 or so draft picks that at some point Melvin would hit on a guy in the middle or late rounds who could turn into Dave Bush at least and suck of some innings with slightly above replacement level pitching. This team hasn’t done that under Melvin’s watch, and it’s his responsibility. If they had done that, even twice in Melvin’s time, It wouldn’t have been necessary to throw cash at Suppan or even Looper and we wouldn’t have to rely on guys like Villy or Burns to bail us out when injuries occurred. Worst of all, Melvin’s long history of failure to select and develop rotation prospects in house meant that in one of the few years where the heart of this team, Fielder and Braun, was together and playing at a high level, the rotation just wasn’t good enough to keep us competitive let alone give those championship quality 3 and 4 hitters the chance to compete for a title.

That’s why I’m mad at Melvin about this season. And that’s why you should be too.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 14, 2009 5:56 PM CDT reply actions   2 recs

That's fair.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 14, 2009 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

I may be showing my ignorance here but...

based on your theory, doesn’t some of the blame land on Jack Z and Reid Nichols? Its their job to draft and develops prospects.

"my goodness"

by BrewHaHeather on Aug 14, 2009 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sure.

But it’s Melvin’s show. They were his guys and its his department.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 14, 2009 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

This is fortunate

We now get to see what Jack Z does on his own. Melvin says he left Jack to do whatever he wanted in the draft, but that always seemed far-fetched to me.

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 15, 2009 6:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks

I was reading this thread wondering if I would have to make this point.

by Marty McSuperFly on Aug 15, 2009 6:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

Why do so many people like Dave Bush?

Isn’t his ERA in the 5 range? He’s cheap, but he’s not that good.

by Jabooty on Aug 15, 2009 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

Aside from this season, he's been reliable and near league average.

180 innings or so of ERA around 4 is a lot more valuable than you’d thing.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 15, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

Or think.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 15, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's not fair

He says aside from 2/5 of the starting staff we haven’t home grown any talent. Hell the phillies only had 2 home grown starters on last years team. Hamels and Myers. The Yankees have only 2 home grown starters. That’s where money plays the big part. Developing pitching is hard. That’s why teams with money spend for it. The original objective of this post was great because KL tried to quantify what might have happened. Too many people got all bent out of shape on it. I commend your work KL and am always pleased to read something that has something to back it up more than"If we had CC we would be the bomb"

by Junked on Aug 14, 2009 6:55 PM CDT reply actions  

I sorta agree, but...

a related issue is that not only don’t we have a surplus of home-grown starting pitchers, what guys we did develop to some level also weren’t used to trade for established starters. I’m loathe to jump on the recurring “the Linebrink trade sucked” bandwagon, because that always struck me as coloured by hindsight, but you do have to wonder if the three pitching prospects couldn’t have been used towards acquiring a semi-decent starter (perhaps in an expanded package) rather than a bullpen rental bandaid.

Another puss who hides behind crap.

by Zeyes on Aug 14, 2009 7:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good point

Hard to say who the Brewers could’ve gotten for Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher. At the time, Inman was ranked the #3 prospect for the Brewers, with Garrison at #23 and Thatcher at #27.

I think at the time, Melvin was doing what he thought the Brewers needed most to get them into the playoffs that season… acquiring veteran help for the bullpen. They didn’t need a starter at that point… with four 11+ game winners (Vargas, Sheets, Suppan and Bush), plus Capuano and Gallardo. All six had contracts going into the next year.

If the Brewers would’ve made it into the playoffs in 2007, I doubt anyone would’ve questioned the move.

by sjlee on Aug 14, 2009 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

fun exercise ... trading for pitching

It’s a fun exercise, and definitely highlights the kind of tradeoffs a GM has to make when choosing strategies and how to execute them, especially given a limited payroll.

The big question for me is: where are the Brewers going to get starting pitching? It seems we are lacking at least one or two impact starters this year as well as 2010, and we’ve had had a ton of success developing pitching in-house.

I think Doug Melvin’s done a tremendous job, but when this year began I thought we should have been looking to trade JJ Hardy if we could get pitching for him. Now I’ll also admit at the time I was willing to trade Fielder for a top starter too, which would have been premature given that Gamel’s in no position to fill his shoes (not yet at least).

by BrewersLoyalty on Aug 15, 2009 1:36 AM CDT reply actions  

Hindsight being 20/20

I agree with most of what’s been said by most of you. I also wish that Melvin coulda/woulda/shoulda done more about the bottom-feeding starting pitching we’ve had this year. One thing it does is that it makes us more appreciative of his AWESOME deal to pick up CC last year. One of the best deals I’ve ever seen in my lifetime as it turned out in the results. How many other guys picked up at the deadline did as much for their new team to make the playoffs as CC did for the 2008 Crew. The other thing this year’s pitching situation does is it makes us appreciate Ben Sheets and what he brought to the team. He was no where near my favorite Brewer. But he was a quality starter when healthy. When he was on, he was on. Man, what a curveball!!! My other thought, however, on the current situation with the Brewers is that, yes, I wish DM could have gotten more pitching without emptying the barns down on the farms. But did anyone foresee our offense being as anemic as it has been. Yes, RB and PF are having great seasons for us, as they should. But who else has done much with maybe the exception of an occasional good game by Counsell or McGahee? Go down the list: Weeks (injured), Hart (disappeared/now injured), Cameron (ok numbers for him, still WAY too many whiffs), Hall (adios buddy, my 13-yr-old hits better than you do), Kendall (who’s this guy kidding when he says he thinks he can still hit .290 or .300??? if it weren’t for his catching skills he’d be outta the game), and Hardy (has reality hit you between the eyes down in AAA JJ?). If anyone other than Ryan (I can’t keep my mouth shut long enough to swing the bat) and Prince (show me the quickest route to the opposing team’s clubhouse) could actually help offensively, we might be able to overcome the lack of solid starting pitching. But we have become way to dependent on the home run, and not enough guys are hitting them. My only complaint against KM is that I wish he’d let our guys run more (with the exception of Ryan “why do they always INTBB Prince after I steal a base” Braun). That’s my take on our current state of the BREWCREW nation.

by FLATandWARMBREWCREW on Aug 15, 2009 3:31 PM CDT reply actions  

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