Saved for Saturday: Build the All-Hindsight Team
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 15, 2009 11:06 AM CDT
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PrintYesterday, I used the advantage of hindsight to look at what might have happened if the Brewers had signed CC Sabathia over the offseason. Today, let's take it one step further.
Imagine, for a moment, that you woke up this morning and discovered it's November 1, 2008, and you're Doug Melvin. Once you get over the initial shock of having a mustache and being magnetically attracted to former Rangers, you realize that you can use the benefit of hindsight to rebuild the 2009 Brewers into a World Series contender.
So, here's your challenge. I've included a poll with some suggestions, but what would you, as Doug Melvin, do differently as you work to construct the 2009 Brewers? Can you operate within the Brewers' current budget and build a team to contend?
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I considered doing the trade JJ for pitching option
but then I figured it’s better to have let Escobar get seasoning in AAA…honestly, it might be better for him to still be down there.
So I picked the skipping Looper for Penny or Wolf option, but that’s a pure hindsight move
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Not really.
Looper was clearly worse than both of those guys if you look at peripherals.
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http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com \ twitter
Exactly.
In the case of both Penny and Wolf, they took cheaper deals to go somewhere they wanted to go. The Brewers would have had to overpay (maybe $8-10 million, maybe a two year deal) for either one.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 15, 2009 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Right, I understand that.
But I think you don’t need hindsight to say that Penny/Wolf would’ve been worth an extra 2-4 million dollars.
---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com \ twitter
Wolf yes, Penny no.
Penny posted a 6.27 ERA in 94.2 innings in 2008. And btw – he’s posted a 5.16 ERA for the Red Sox this season.
I think there might have been howls of outrage if Melvin had given Penny the $8-10 million or two year deal it would’ve taken to get him in Milwaukee.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 15, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Amen to that!
Every time I see a “wrist-waggler” at the plate, I wonder what’s going through the mind of the manager.
"At times I'm emotional," --Ryan Braun, 7/7/09
by heybatterbatter on Aug 15, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions
If you really want hindsight, here's a move that could have been made for nearly free and solved some problems:
I think Randy Wells was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
So you're saying
If we could’ve predicted the future, we could’ve helped ourselves and hurt the Cubs?
That’s it, go call up Doc Brown and grab the DeLorean. We’ve got work to do.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
If that's true, I'd go with picking up Wells
I wouldn’t have traded JJ because I think it was important for Escobar to remain in AAA and because I heard that Melvin was only getting offers of a number 4 or 5 type starting pitcher in exchange for JJ. Granted we’de probably be lucky to get such a deal now, but who knows, maybe he can turn around his season after a few weeks in AAA.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Aug 15, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
On the flip side
Is there any team in baseball who doesn’t wish they were paying Casey McGehee $400,000 for his production?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
The Cubs.
According to their fans, this is all just a fluke and he’s still worthless.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 15, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions
So you'd trade McGehee
for the Cubs third base starter today?
Maybe you could share that poll you are referring to?
"At times I'm emotional," --Ryan Braun, 7/7/09
by heybatterbatter on Aug 15, 2009 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Uh...
… I’m not really sure you how concluded that my opinion was that McGehee was worthless. RJ asked a rhetorical question and I was simply pointing out the fact that I’ve heard a ton of Cubs fans say that McGehee’s production this season is a fluke.
Maybe you should chill out a little.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 15, 2009 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions
The Cubs third base starter is Aramis Ramirez.
And if the Cubs would take that trade, I would do that in an instant.
Neyjer Morgan
If I only have one option: I would have traded for Neyjer Morgan for our CF for the future.
Secondly, I would have:
- Traded JJ for pitching. Mariners, Red Sox, Twins and Giants would have all listened.
- Told Macha to play Rivera more
- Traded for Sherrill while we still had the chance. The Dodgers got him for not very much. Now we don’t have a closer for the future and our bullpen stinks. He’d been a guy I would have went after.
- Addendum to JJ in relation to Sherrill: Trade JJ for Morrow and whomever else from the Mariners.
speculation
There was talk of a Matt Cain-for-Escobar or Gamel and some C+ prospects. I don’t know how serious that was, but I was in favor of it at the time. Now that trade would seem absurd of course. But I don’t see the Crew with a shot at the title without a true stud ace to go along with YoGa. Bring back Sheets for 2010?
Resign Russell the Muscle!
His average has dropped quite a bit over the last couple months, but he’s till having a big season. Not saying there’d be a huge difference in the team’s performance at this point – McGehee et al. have performed quite well – but it was still the dumbest move Melvin made this season, even at the time.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Agreed.
I never did hear any coherent explanation (from the club or anyone else) as to why we didn’t even seem to think about resigning Branyan.
by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 15, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Kapler was the same as Branyan
wanted to go somewhere he could play every day
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Aug 15, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions
also, discard to-do list
that has “trade tony gwynn for jody gerut” on it.
eh...
we should have just asked more in return for gwynn;)
keep in mind he was DFAd before the season, so it’s not like the padres would have bit on a trade at all involving him.
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 15, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions
buy lottery tickets
would i know the winning numbers in this scenario? if so, it sounds like early retirement.
baseball wise, i agree with the wells and wolf discussion above.
branyan re-signed to play 3b every day.
DFA hall right away, so i only owe him this year’s salary.
i thought the giants wanted fielder and hardy for cain . but if we could replace fielder with hart and, say, jeffress or another prospect, that would be worth doing. i was going to say we can then try to sign ibanez, but that wouldn’t work – he’s getting 3 years/ $31.5M. i guess, then, just find a good defensive OF for RF. (ideally endy chavez, but that was just a complicated trade. i suppose gerut’s fine.)
i don’t know what i’d do at catcher, but that would be different. sigh.
lineups posted for today
McCalvy says
Milwaukee
Felipe Lopez 2B
Craig Counsell 3B
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Mike Cameron CF
Frank Catalanotto RF
Jason Kendall C
Mike Burns RHP
Alcides Escober SS
Houston
Michael Bourn CF
Miguel Tejada SS
Lance Berkman 1B
Carlos Lee LF
Geoff Blum 3B
Hunter Pence RF
Ivan Rodriguez C
Kazuo Matsui 2B
Brian Moehler RHP
The excuse for Kendall is he has (historically) owned Moehler. I hope we win but with Rivera’s recent contributions (2 HRs two days ago + .500 BA and .800 OBP yesterday) still having more weight than Kendall’s performance today
Grrrr
No Rivera…?! What happened to the Machian “These guys play themselves on to the starting lineup.”?
Kendall better go 3 for 4….
"At times I'm emotional," --Ryan Braun, 7/7/09
by heybatterbatter on Aug 15, 2009 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
If Rivera started 108 games in a season would you be okay with it?
Two out of three games is pretty normal for a starting catcher.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Melvin would have done well to
rethink the philosophy that Weeks, Hardy, Hart and Hall should be hitting home run hitters. Rather the goal for the year should have been to up their OBPs significantly. To some extent, it happened with Weeks and Hart. But Hall and Hardy didn’t read the memo.
All four of these guys have proven they can drive the ball, but they somehow were convinced (along the way) that swinging for the fence is the better approach. Their swings are all large, round house affairs that pitchers can exploit, and have. The strikeout numbers are downright embarrassing and they have killed scores of potential rallies. Sveum’s edict “keep the line moving” is the right message. Melvin would do well to feature that in his chats with players and agents. He has a role to play here.
Escobar looked good in AZ this spring, but I’m glad they didn’t push him into the lineup in April.
There, now I feel better….
"At times I'm emotional," --Ryan Braun, 7/7/09
by heybatterbatter on Aug 15, 2009 3:47 PM CDT reply actions
No hindsight on my part
I was advocating a trade of JJ Hardy for pitching with anyone who would listen. I also would have traded Sheets the year before in the 07 offseason, Jenkins in 06 and Hall in 05.
Well we can't all be as smart as you.
You also suggested that they call up Yunel Escobar months ago. If only Doug would have listened.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 15, 2009 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, I said selling Babe Ruth was a bad move for the Sox.
by Zorakathura on Aug 15, 2009 5:20 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 8 recs
i'm just angry i can't rec that more than once
"This one means 'Kill Kirk!!!!'... And also, 'hallelujah'... Depending on the context."
by trippingandy on Aug 15, 2009 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions
And we really would have needed that pitching, too.
I mean, what with signing Chad Gaudin and dumping Coffey and DiFelice.
Another puss who hides behind crap.
by Zeyes on Aug 15, 2009 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Trading Hall in 05 would have been pretty stupid, and thus kind of a silly thing to brag about.
Since Hall hit 35 HRs and his OPS was 60pts higher in 2006.
But who can fathom the mind of backtocali.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 15, 2009 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Actually
I forgot how prescient you are. Did you also advocate drafting Albert Pujols, Roy Haladay, draft Johan Santana in the rule 5, David Wright, and Jon Papelbon? just curious.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Aug 15, 2009 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
At the very least
There would have been no Braun.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Aug 15, 2009 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Ah yes.
Who would want Braun and his ROY, two all-star appearances, 96HRs including his playoff clinching slam in 2008 and 6 more years of control when you could have Maybin lighting it up at AAA four years after he was drafted?
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 15, 2009 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Or Fielder either.
Too lazy too look for a link, but backtocali has been pretty clear that he would never have drafted Fielder at the spot the Brewers did.
So we would have neither of our 3-4 hitters.
But we would have Scott Kazmir!
1. Draft Kazmir, keep Overbay
2. ???
3. Playoffs!
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Oh! What do you know?
Scott Kazmir career WAR 16.2
Prince Fielder career WAR 12.9
I have grown to like Fielder, but to this point, Kazmir would have been the better choice. Even with Prince’s 4.4 this year, the Brewers still probably miss the playoffs and are probably a shade above .500 at best.
Pitchers TEND to flame out earlier than position players
(of course Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan are exceptions)
So, if they AREN’T significantly over replacement level they ain’t worth it.
Prince’s 18M / 2 yr is roughly contract-equivalent to Kasmir’s 28.5M / 3 yr contact, except the brewers signed prince a year later than Kasmir – and were thereby paying league minimum a year longer.
Kasmir’s WAR is probably close to nil or negative this year. By the end of their respective contracts, Prince will likely be adding to his career WAR, while Kasmir will be stalled. Win to Brewers.
Yes, a couple wins in 07 would have been handy and helped propel us to the playoffs, but that WAS fielder’s 50 HR year where he came in 3rd in MVP vote. So, I don’t think Kasmir over Fielder would have helped us there. Last year we made the playoffs without Kasmir and Fielder was hitting rather well, so I wouldn’t have taken a substitution there either.
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 16, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Holy cow, you actually responded to something
How about Kazmir and Prince’s WAR in 2007? How about their WAR next year and beyond?
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
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| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
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Chicago
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Cincinnati
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Houston
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