2010 Roster Construction
by tcyoung on Aug 17, 2009 5:32 PM CDT
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PrintEDIT: I added the spreadsheet to googledocs. If you want, you can now access it here, edit it how you would like to see each position filled, and then paste it in the comments below. (Be sure to preview your post, the comments don't like excel formatting so much)
With the demotion of JJ Hardy, and the DFA of Bill Hall, the Brewers fan base has begun to discuss plans for 2010. This 20-minute interview with Doug Melvin focuses, in large part, on the upcoming offseason, while this fanpost by sowingwildoats focuses on 2010 lineup construction. When it comes to transactions and roster-building, money is half of the equation. Unfortunately, it’s very difficult to think of the big fiscal picture when there are 25-40 different contracts compiled into the payroll. Cot’s has a nice spreadsheet showing payroll obligations through 2013. However, it doesn’t count players in arbitration years towards the payroll, leaving it difficult to project how much money will be available in any given offseason.
So I made my own spreadsheet, using information from Cot’s and filling in the gaps with arbitration estimates. I tried to be conservatively accurate, as I don’t want to overestimate how much money will be available in the offseason.
So here it is:
|
Position |
Name |
2010 Estimated Salary |
|
C |
||
|
1B |
Fielder |
$11,000,000.00 |
|
2B |
Weeks |
$3,500,000.00 |
|
SS |
Hardy |
$5,500,000 |
|
3B |
Gamel |
$500,000.00 |
|
LF |
Braun |
$1,000,000.00 |
|
CF |
||
|
RF |
Hart |
$4,500,000.00 |
|
Bench |
Escobar |
$500,000.00 |
|
Bench |
McGehee |
$500,000.00 |
|
Bench |
Rivera |
$1,000,000.00 |
|
Bench |
||
|
Bench |
||
|
SP1 |
Gallardo |
$500,000.00 |
|
SP2 |
Parra |
$500,000.00 |
|
SP3 |
Suppan |
$12,500,000.00 |
|
SP4 |
Bush |
$5,500,000.00 |
|
SP5 |
||
|
SP6 |
||
|
Pen |
Coffey |
$2,000,000.00 |
|
Pen |
Villanueva |
$1,000,000.00 |
|
Pen |
McClung |
$2,500,000.00 |
|
Pen |
DiFelice |
$1,000,000.00 |
|
Pen |
Riske |
$4,500,000.00 |
|
Pen |
Stetter |
$500,000.00 |
|
CL |
||
|
Other |
Hall |
$8,400,000.00 |
|
Total |
$66,900,000.00 |
The last two years, the Brewers have started the season with an $80MM pay roll. I’m going to assume that this number will rise. At the beginning of the season, it seemed like management was throwing this team out there, and banking off the idea of adding a player at the deadline if they’re still in it. I think Mark A. learned his lesson, and will be willing to add some payroll. Even though I’d like to see a $90MM figure, in my attempt to be conservatively accurate, I’m going to interpolate and assume an $85MM payroll for 2010.
That gives us roughly $20MM to work with as we enter free agency, with holes at C, CF, 2 SP, and CL. I think it’s safe to say that either Hardy or Escobar will be moved. If you’re curious, dealing Hardy would leave us with roughly $25MM (minus whatever contracts we take on) to spend.
So how would you allocate that money? Who would you like to see us trade for? Who would you like to see us sign? What does your 2010 roster look like?
For a comprehensive list of this offseason's free agents, see Cot's
100 comments
|
1 recs |
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Comments
McGehee on the bench?
Either at third as a the prime starter or gone for pitching help
"At times I'm emotional," --Ryan Braun, 7/7/09
by heybatterbatter on Aug 15, 2009 8:06 PM CDT reply actions
David Weathers?
He’s not going to be a free agent. He’s on our roster. He’s overpriced. There’s 3-4 mil down the drain the you forgot.
There is a $3.7MM club option for 2010
with a $0.4MM buyout.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
That's possible
I tried to keep my biases out of the actual fanpost. Going into the offseason, we’re looking at 2 3rd basemen on the team. Gamel will be the starter.
If Counsell retires, I’d like to see McGehee be the new utility man
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
but then again
if we can trade him for a decent prize, I’d be all for it. I don’t think his value can go much higher
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Package McGehee with Hardy
That should bring what Hardy alone last year might have, possibly even better.
McGehee just doesnt have anywhere to play next year.
If Counsell doesn't come back
I think we’ll need McGehee on the bench.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Even more than that
We could platoon Counsell and McGehee at third and keep Escobar at SS. It’s stupid to get rid of a player like McGehee who is doing really well right now.
CounsellWSMVP10!
Even if the right deal comes along?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Well, with Counsell's knee
And McGehee’s recent problems, I don’t think it’s wise to trade one and lose the other. Why not keep them both? When they aren’t playing third, they can rest or help give someone else a day off. If we rest some of the team a little more, it might be beneficial.
CounsellWSMVP10!
Its just like you say elsewhere though
If you believe that McGehee is at his peak, as do I, dont you think its better to get full value for him in a trade, than to have him sit on the bench an be an occasional player? With his value as high as it is right now, I think it would be silly to hang onto a guy like that for the bench next year, when you might actually get a starter (position player or pitcher (if packaged with Hardy) or very nice prospect in return for him.
Its just like the Bill Hall situation after his 35 HR year. There just wont be anywhere to put him next year. I would deal him, he has no big time future with the team. Bench players come and go and can be picked up off of the scrap heap for nothing, as the Brewers have shown. Why not make a deal when his value is high and get the maximum return.
Good point, however...
they may end up needing McGehee to play or even start next season… at either 2B or 3B.
There’s a very good chance that Weeks will not be fully recovered from his surgery. When he had the surgery on his other wrist, the following season he still had lingering problems with it. Plus, there’s always the chance that he may revert back to the Weeks from the last two season, instead of the one from this season.
It also seems like Gamel is who the Brewers have tagged to start at 3B next season, but who knows how his fielding is going to be as a regular starter. Plus, his hitting is still an unknown. His BA in 1+ seasons in Triple-A is .286… not exactly tearing it up.
It depends on a few factors
1) What is the other utility infield option?
2) What can you get in return for him.
3) If his value is at its highest, how far is he going to regress?
I think we should shop him around, but he might be more valuable to our team than he would be in a trade. Just because his value is at its highest, doesn’t mean that he has a lot of weight in a trade. His year has been nothing like Bill Hall’s 35 HR year. Hall hit .291 the year before with 17 HR. Casey doesn’t have a previous year to fall back on to make his value as high as Bill E. Hall’s was after the 35 HR season.
Perhaps we would be able to shop him around with JJ, but guys like Hart or Weeks would probably get us a better return package.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
And as far as bench players being picked up off the scrap heap for nothing
Sure they can, but it’s not so easy to find good ones. Look at the luck we had this year. Nelson looked like he was gonna be valuable. So did Duffy. Gerut? Where would this bench be without Counsell and McGehee?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
C: the best free agent is molina but he is mid 30’s and will cost a pretty penny. I Think it may be best to give more time to Rivera and sign another back up catcher. There may be a chance for salome to get some playing time if he prove he can handle major league pitching.
CF, if the rays dont use the option on crawford. sign him 3yrs 36 million.
(still offer arb to cam hoping he turns it down.)
B1: CC, craig counsell, 2 mil
B2: dip into AAA for iribarren or heether 400k
SP1 sign Davis to a 2 yr deal with option or washburn, which ever one cost less
SP2 Duchscherer , has the stuff of an ace or number 2 picture.
closer, move coffee into that roll
bullpen, let mevin work his magic like he always does
those moves will probably take up all of the 25 mil, yikes
I would absolutely love this offseason
I never really thought about Crawford as an option and Im not sure if we could actually get him for 3yrs 36 mil but he would be a very good young addition for the center field and I i have been a big proponent in signing Washburn as a good 3 and Duscherer being the only viable 2 we would have a shot at because of him being devalued with his injury status I really feel that we could make noise next year with that lineup and starting 5
Ring Out Ahoya!
by bleedbluegold03 on Aug 15, 2009 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Wow, you're really reaching for the stars there
This would be one fantastic offseason. Just a few problem I see.
Carl Crawford? Yes please. But I highly doubt that the Crew would be able to pick him up for that cheap. Plus, he’s a left fielder, and we’ve already got one.
If Duchscherer is healthy, he’ll probably be in high demand and too expensive for the Brewers.
I’m not comfortable with Coffey as closer. I’d rather have Hoffman back.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Aug 15, 2009 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Crawford has played some center field.
In a small sample size, he has been below average defensively, but only slightly. But it’s a moot point either way—the Brewers aren’t going to sign him to a big contract (he will certainly get more years and more money, I think) when they have to focus on signing gap players in the bullpen, and possible (probable) long term extensions to some of Milwaukees own players like Hardy, Weeks, Gallardo, Fielder, etc.
shoot for the starts
as tcyoung pointed out that the brewers mang. learned from not signing free agents. also considering how the attendance has been this year ( even week day games when they were 7 games out of playoff race) has been outstanding. I have a strong feeling they they will make some big moves if possible. they need to either add a good outfielder or a catcher, i think molina is the only good one. they also NEED 2 quality starting pitchers.
Crawford is the best LF in the league.
I’m pretty sure he could handle a move to CF.
---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com \ twitter
For what its worth
You’re probably right and I hope we get him. My hopes aren’t high, but I would love for Carl Crawford to be a Brewer.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Aug 16, 2009 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Duchscherer is a decent pitcher but "the stuff of an ace" is misinformation
He throws in the mid 80s.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Has it been suggested somewhere that the Rays won't pick up Crawford's option?
It’s only 10 or 11 Mil. I don’t see why they wouldn’t pick it up.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Good point...
His $10M option is only $1.75M more than his current salary. With attendance up this season, they should be able to easily afford him.
si suggested it
I believe he would be a B type free agent!
My thoughts
I’d like us to leave the Catcher situation alone and go with Rivera/Salome.
I’d like to see us offer Cam arbitration, and then let him go. If he signs, trade him away. At least we’ll be getting some sort of return for him, no matter what. To fill his spot, I’d like to see them sign Scott Podsednik (yeah, i’ll probably take some heat, but he’s looking like he’s fixed whatever went wrong) and mix him in with Gerut.
I think we should trade away Hardy for a pitcher. Even if that pitcher is simply a prospect who won’t be able to help us in 09, having 25 Million to spend on pitching would be incredible. Two starters are necessary, as Bush or Suppan can move to the bullpen, and used as injury depth. Duscherer should definitely be the target as teams swoon for John Lackey. From there, the prospects aren’t special, but most would make for a good #4 or 5 starter: Washburn, Davis, Contreras, Harden, Bedard, Escobar, Wellenmeyer, Piniero…
Gallardo, Duscherer, Parra, Davis, Bush. I like that rotation, and I think we would have the money available to make a serious push for those guys, even if we have to overpay a bit.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Oh yeah, and a closer
If there’s money left over, it would obviously be great to sign Hoffman back. But if there’s not, I’d be OK with trying Coffey there. He’s certainly been our best and most consistent non-career-saves-leader out of the bullpen
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
After this year and his contract, does Hardy even have much value?
I agree with you though. We need at least one starting pitcher and I would love to have Hoffman back.
I'm not sure how much major league talent he's worth
but I still think there’s some value there. Even if we’re trading him for a prospect pitcher, I’m sure there’s a team that will need a short stop next year. He could be packaged with a reliever, or Hart, or Weeks…
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Podesdnik isn't a CF.
He’s got a career -5 UZR/150 in CF, and he’s not as good of a hitter as he’s shown.
I mean, I see him as a 4th OF who’d be useful in a pinch, but no thanks as a starter.
---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com \ twitter
He should platoon with Roger Cedeno
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Escobar
In what world would the Brewers put a gold glove caliber defender on the bench. This would only hurt his growth as a player and kill his confidence. If you need an example look at what happened to Gamel this year. Far and away Escobar will be the starting shortstop next year and Hardy will not be on this team.
agreed
i think that the only way Hardy will be on the team is if they either a) elect to give escobar more seasoning in AAA or b) if Weeks’s rehab is taking longer than anticipated and they feel like seeing how well Hardy will stick at second (or first)
Also, I don’t see Gamel actually starting the season on the squad. He hasn’t done much recently at AAA and was somewhat of a bust on the big squad (other than defensively, where he was surprisingly adequate)
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 16, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't say he was a bust in the big leagues
He just didn’t get enough ABs. A young player like him needs consistent playing time to be productive. Casey McGehee didn’t do anything while being a bench player but really turned it on once he got a chance to play every day.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Aug 16, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
true that
but Gamel has tended to have a dropoff in the 2nd half of the season, so he might need MORE rest and LESS day-to-day play down the stretch.
If he is better than the other 3B candidates, no reason to not have him start the season. But I think we should be prepared to burn an option on him lickity-split if he can’t handle the day-after-day duty in the bigs.
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 16, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Re: the tending to drop off thing
Gamel was hurt the second half of last year and didn’t bother telling anyone and he was just fine in the 2nd half of seasons before that. After not playing much in July this year and not having hits fall in (BABIP of .235 in his brief AAA July), he’s doing alright in August.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
thanks for correcting the misconception
as you know, I go off “gut” here often;)
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 16, 2009 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I wrote this lineup to show what we have entering the offseason
And we have both Hardy and Escobar on the lineup, going into the offseason. It wasn’t a matter of who I think should be playing, but rather a matter of who we have to pay.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Agreed
If Escobar continues to play like he has for the rest of this season, there’s no reason to believe he isn’t ready to be the starting SS next season. Hardy will be worth some decent pitching… even multiple prospects would be good.
I wasn’t that impressed with Gamel with his limited time with the team. Yes, I know you could argue that he needed regular playing time to get into a rhythm (hitting wise), but that doesn’t excuse his defense, which isn’t very good (.918 fld pct in Triple-A… the same as it was last season when he had 30 errors in Double-A). I see him as another Braun at 3B. Might be worthwhile to get him an OF glove and have him start learning RF. Braun made the transition during the off-season, so Gamel might be up to the task as well.
Of course, that means Hart becomes expendable. They could try shifting him to CF (which is probably not a very good idea) or trade him.
For 3B, if McGehee’s knees can hold up, I’d give him a shot at being the starter. Another idea would be to put Hardy at 3B if they think he can turn his hitting around and keep McGehee around as a utility player. They might actually need McGehee at 2B if Weeks isn’t able to play like he had been.
I really can't believe the number of people throwing dirt on Gamel based on the extremely limited and sporadic action Macha gave him
I thought he was decent defensively at third given his past performance in the minors. I don’t really understand the notion that Gamel’s defense at 3rd means he has to be moved when you think McGehee, who has struggled at 3rd defensively, should be given a shot at starting. I can see the argument that McGeehee should play 3rd and Gamel RF in 2010 if your point is to get the best bats in the lineup every day, but pinning that on Gamel’s so-called unimpressive performance at the ML level this year seems pretty foolish to me.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 16, 2009 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Seems like McGehee would be equally likely (if not more so) to be able to adequately play RF next year.
---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com \ twitter
with a bum knee?
or are you counting on offseason rehab?
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 17, 2009 5:26 AM CDT up reply actions
so we should go all Tonya Harding on Kendall's ass?
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 19, 2009 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think it's a safe to assume McGehee is going to be a quality starter
I see him regressing to the mediocre player he’s been all his career. His trade value will be as high as ever following this season, so if the right offer is on the table, I wouldn’t mind trading him. If not, I would be more than fine with him as a utility backup.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Regressing? Based on what?
This is his first season at the MLB level. In Triple-A in 2008, he hit .296 with 12 HRs and 92 RBIs.
It’s not like the team is offering him a giant contract (like Bill Hall). I think they’ll give him a shot at 3B during spring training… just like Gamel and anyone else.
.296 in AAA
McGehee is playing out of his mind right now. The fact that he has a higher BA than he ever had in AAA is evidence. When he hit .296, he hit with a BABIP of .341. It’s possible that .341 is sustainable, as he currently has a BABIP of .341 in the majors, but that .296 AAA average holds a MLE of .242.
Zips projects him as hitting .260 for the rest of the season. I don’t think he’ll fall that far, but we’d be fools not to expect any dropoff.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Yeah, I see a sophomore slump coming, too
Probably still a decent player, but I doubt his value will get much higher than it is right now.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
MLE's aren't 100% accurate
I’m not saying we should expect this sort of production out of McGehee every season, but I think his play has earned him a shot to start.
MLEs aren't 100% accurate
but I wish when people said that, they gave me a reason to think that some other numbers are more likely.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 18, 2009 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions
How about because he's doing better than his MLE right now?
I think that’s a pretty good reason in this instance. I have no idea if McGehee will regress next year or not but I’d say his performance this season should at least be seen as evidence as credible as his MLE based on his minor league numbers.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 18, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions
That's not how MLEs work at all, though
The MLE is saying, if McGehee played the same as he did in 2008 AAA in the major leagues in 2008, he would have hit about .250/.310/.380ish. This year if he had performed the same way as he has in the majors but in AAA he might have hit .340/.410/.600. Last year’s MLE is not a projection for this year. In a way there’s no way to measure it because you’re looking at what a player would have done, not what he will do.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I know that.
Look I’m not saying I understand the models used by the folks who do this kind of analysis, let alone to the level that Sackmann does. I think everyone knows that. But I know that the MLEs aren’t designed to predict of future performance. The problem is that they get tossed out fairly frequently, as they were here, as a way to try to predict future performance even though they weren’t designed to be used that way. My point was that I think his actual performance at the ML level this year should be seen as credible evidence of how he’s likely to do next year. That’s all. I really don’t know if he’ll regress next year or not, but I don’t think his 2008 MLE is all that useful in trying to figure that out.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 19, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions
The problem is that they get tossed out fairly frequently, as they were here, as a way to try to predict future performance even though they weren’t designed to be used that way.
No they weren’t. I used zips projections to project his future performance. I used MLE’s to say that his .296 AAA batting average isn’t as impressive as it looks.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
You did use Zips, at the end, to predict a regression.
But before that you typed the following:
“The fact that he has a higher BA than he ever had in AAA is evidence. When he hit .296, he hit with a BABIP of .341. It’s possible that .341 is sustainable, as he currently has a BABIP of .341 in the majors, but that .296 AAA average holds a MLE of .242.”
I’m sorry if I misunderstood you, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to interpret those sentences, given the content of the comment to which you were responding, to conclude that you’re basing your belief that he’s hitting over his head on his 2008 MLE.
What a fun conversation.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 19, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the most important sentence is this one:
The fact that he has a higher BA than he ever had in AAA is evidence.
I wish I would have elaborated on that more. The very fact that he’s hitting for a better average at the major league level than he had ever hit at AAA should be proof enough that he his hitting over his head. Regardless of how accurate MLE’s might be, one shouldn’t expect a player to hit better in the majors than he did in AAA.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
And I don't really disagree with that point at all.
Though I suspect there are exceptions to that rule, as there always are. I’m not sure his numbers at this point are all that far out of line with his AAA numbers from last year, though they were much higher a few weeks ago. So maybe that regression you’re expecting is already in the works.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 19, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Exceptions...
Pujols
Hit .314 in his only year in the minors. .314 is the lowest he’s ever hit in the majors.
Holliday
He played 9 season in the minors… only four of which he played a full season (> 500 PAs). In each of those four, he never hit better than .276. In each of his MLB seasons, he’s never hit lower than .286.
Granted, I’m not saying McGehee will be nearly as good as either of these guys. These are the couple players that I could think of off the top of my head that I found to be exceptions. I’m sure there are lesser known players who have done the same (played better at the MLB level than in the minors).
Bringing it back to the topic at hand
Do we want to put that much faith into our starting 3B not regressing? I certainly hope he can maintain it, and I’m more than comfortable with him as a utility man. But I’d rather have Gamel starting at 3rd.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
3B
I’m not saying that the Brewers should immediately hand the starting job over to McGehee for next season.
Why not go into spring training and see who the best player is between McGehee, Gamel and anyone else?
If nothing else, I think they may need McGehee at 2B if Lopez is gone and Weeks isn’t back to the 2009 version (pre-DL).
Because you can't really determine who the best player is by 50 spring ABs?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I know I've said this before, repeatedly
but something in me wants to believe McGehee has figured something out. Since winter ball and spring training, he’s been mashing whenever he gets regular play time. Maybe they just haven’t figured out how to pitch him, and certainly you’re not always facing major league-quality pitching in winter/spring ball, but it’s an awful long time to be ‘on a hot streak’.
Something in you
That would be the Brewer fan in you
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
everything will always happen as it has happened before
any deviation from projections, no matter how long, is due to chance
the cake is a lie
Gamel
I think you’re looking at things a bit unequally. You state that you thought Gamel’s defense was “decent” in this limited playing time (which is a fair assessment) but then give him a break on his hitting over the same limited playing time? Seems to me that if you think his hitting will improve with regular playing time, then it would be a equal assumption to state that we’d see his fielding suffer because of the additional fielding opportunities.
I’m not considering Gamel’s limited playing time while with the Brewers this season… I’m basing it on his minor leage numbers this season and last. Yes, he has been hitting the ball well in the minors (Triple-A this season and Double-A last season), but he’s also averaging over 30 errors in a full season.
Then go ask a ballplayer how much of an impact that irregular playing time has on their hitting.
So I’m looking at things a bit unequally, but you’re unimpressed because he didn’t hit and you disregard the small sample that suggests that his defense was improved?
Pot…. kettle….
Tell you what. I’ll admit that I don’t know what I’m talking about in my evaluation of his play at the MLB level if you admit the same. I won’t, however, change my mind that anyone who thinks that Gamel’s short time in the MLB this year gives a fair reading on his ability to produce at this level. That’s just foolishness because there were too few opportunities to realistically conclude much of anything.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 18, 2009 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Would Gerut or Catalanatto be brought back as the 4th OF?
There is not that many options at AAA to start next season.
Also I think that Hoffman should be brought back for something similar to this year ($4-5million). 2nd options for closer could be either Soriano or Gonzalez from the Braves but that may need a longer contract. I would not spend the money needed to get Valverde unless it was 1-2 years which is unlikely.
As for catcher assuming that Rivera is brought back how about a left hand catcher to platoon with? Somebody like Schneider?
As for CF Cameron is worth trying to bring back, I think abritration might not treat his average and strikes too kindly.
There is any number of starters that I would be happy for the Brewers to get. The might not be may star names – Lackey could well get the biggest contract – but there is alot options which may mean that if the Brewers are willing to wait they could pick up a bargin.
Obviously alot depends on what happens with JJ and Escobar, if JJ is traded I would hope that we would get somebody that would make the 25 man roster so may well fill 1 of the gaps at the moment. Also if JJ is traded I would image that the chances that Councell is brought back is increased.
I think Gerut will be around next year.
I just get the impression that Melvin really likes him. (that’s completely unfounded; simply a gut-feeling)
As for waiting for a bargain SP, I don’t think that’s the proper way to go about it. It didn’t work last year, and I think we should at least sign one guy while teams are waiting for Lackey to make his decision.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I think waiting is fine if the rotation hole is merely something like "serviceable 5th starter".
There’s usually somebody like Looper available. But for what’s needed for the Brewers rotation next year (and really, was probably needed this year, too), i.e. something better, you probably need to act faster, I agree. Let’s hope there’s more pitching on the market than there was last off-season…
BTW, did blog semi-favourite Odalis Perez not catch on with anybody in the end?
Another puss who hides behind crap.
It's quantity over quality this year
Last year, the big pitchers were available (CC, Burnett, Lowe). This year there’s plenty of mediocre, middle of the rotation guys
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I'd like to see if we can get a few injury guys for cheap
Kelvim Escobar, Tim Hudson, and maybe Billy Wagner. Escobar can start or relieve, which is nice
Signed with the Nats then backed out of the deal I think and no one would touch him
heard some rumors about him at the deadline but I don’t think anyone picked him up.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I think the best guy you'd get for Hardy that would make the 25-man in 2010 would be a 4th-5th starter
I’d rather them get someone who may not be able to contribute in 2010 but projects as a 1 or 2 in a few years in a trade for Hardy, and spend money on someone who can fill #4/#5 for the next two years.
same here
Not only would they not be able to contribute in 2010, but they wouldn’t add to our payroll in 2010. We’d still be able to go out and sign 2 SP.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
tc, really appreciate this
and rec’d.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
I think you look towards 2011, starting now
Dont try and touch all of the holes now, take a noticeable step forward and bank on the fact that we have $25M+ coming off the books with Hall, Suppan, and Riske after the 2010 season.
Another mediocre season is going to only bring down Hart’s value. A 27 year old with 2 years left of arbitration and an all star game under his belt is the highest his value is going to get, sadly. Move him after this offseason, along with Hardy.
With Hart gone, that $25M is now $30M with an extra hole in the OF. As tough as it may be, make a push for Crawford with the bulk of that money. 3 years for $36M has been shot down here already, would 3 for $48M get him? 16M each year would leave us 14M left for 2010, good enough to at least patch work CF and fill a couple of pitching positions (im assuming Rivera behind the plate).
Going into 2011, we would have $25M coming off the books from the trio of suck-titude and a core of Braun, Fielder, Crawford, Gallardo and Parra, with Escobar and Gamel each having a full year under their belt. I don’t know what sort of pitchers are coming off the market during that time, but that is enough money and talent to turn some heads.
by LosinCatmansLove on Aug 17, 2009 11:51 AM CDT reply actions
$16M for CF seems awfully high for the Brewers
That amount would put him into the top 10 highest paid OFs (using 2009 numbers)…
1. Ramirez (LAD) – $23.9M
2. Beltran (NYM) – $19.2M
3. Lee (HOU) – $19M
4. Ordonez (DET) – $19M
5. Hunter (LAA) – $18M
6. Suzuki (SEA) – $18M
7. Soriano (CHC) – $17M
8. Guerrero (LAA) – $15M
Not saying he isn’t worth it… just not sure if the Brewers would be willing to offer than kind of money.
Also, don’t forget that by 2011…
1. Fielder’s contract will be up, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration.
2. Parra and Gallardo will be eligible for arbitration.
Potential Free Agents for 2011
Bronson Arroyo CIN *
Josh Beckett BOS
Joe Blanton PHI
Jeremy Bonderman DET
David Bush MIL
Daniel Cabrera WAS
Matt Cain SF *
Jorge De La Rosa COL
Jeff Francis COL *
Jon Garland ARI
Roy Halladay TOR
Aaron Harang CIN *
Tim Hudson ATL
Cliff Lee CLE
Ted Lilly CHC
Braden Looper MIL
Noah Lowry SF
Kevin Millwood TEX
Jamie Moyer PHI
Vicente Padilla TEX
Tim Redding NYM
Nate Robertson DET
Ian Snell PIT *
Jeff Suppan MIL *
Willy Tavarez CIN
Javier Vazquez ATL
Brandon Webb ARI
Jake Westbrook CLE
Dontrelle Willis DET
Chris Young SD *
Players with *’s have an option. Some of these players have options for 2010 that won’t get picked up, and will become free agents this offseason.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
grab a good one in 2010, a better one in 2011
What about 2 years for $8-10M for Duchscherer after this year, followed by a big push for Brandon Webb or Cliff Lee in 2011? I would just have to think that having the level of talent on the team during the offseason pre 2011 would really make these marquette names take a good hard look. Halladay may even be had for cheaper because of his age, may not demand more than a 3 year contract.
With Prince, Braun, Crawford, Rickie, Escobar, Gamel, Gallardo, Webb/Lee/Halladay and Parra, I could pitch in the 4 and 5 slots and we would still make the playoffs.
by LosinCatmansLove on Aug 17, 2009 1:08 PM CDT reply actions
NOOO
after 2011, there is no garuntee prince will be a Brewer.
So the Brewers must put themself in a postion for the world series the next 2 years while they still have prince and ryan.
With Fielder and Braun batting 3 and 4, this team should always be in the playoff race.
And considering Gallardo is good #1 pitcher all the brewers need to do is sign a number 2 and 3 type pitchers to go along with parra and “bush/suppan type”
Brewers should sign a quality #3 pitcher that is close to a for sure thing
Doug Davis
Joel Pineiro
Jarrod Washburn
Jon Garland
here are several top of the rotation pitchers that had injury problems in 2009 that may have a good 2010
- Doug Melvin also said in a recent interview that 25 starts by Ben Sheets went a lot farther than 35 starts of a sub par pitcher.
Justin Duchscherer
Kelvim Escobar
Ben Sheets
Tim Hudson
John Lackey is also a free agent but i see him to pricy for the brewers
Here is a look at what an affordable and more importantly competitive rotation will look like.
Gallardo
Justin Duchscherer or Tim Hudon
Doug Davis or Jarrod Washburn
Manny Parra
Dave Bush
Jeff suppan in the bullpen
Ducscherer
After the frustration of Sheets in the past, I highly doubt the Brewers would gamble any significant money on a guy with a history of injuries.
or if they really wanted to they could just gamble some more on sheets.
by Trent Durrington on Aug 18, 2009 4:18 AM CDT up reply actions
See the Edit above
I added the spreadsheet to googledocs, so you can edit it as you please, and repost it here.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Why not bring Catalanotto back?
I realize I like this player more than anyone else here, but he’s currently hitting .368 in his starts, seems like a nice 2-spot guy. Trade Corey Hart. You know some team is going to overvalue the guy.
captainbok: What do you like the most about milwaukee
Jeff Suppan: Captain Bok, that is a great question. Does "Bok" mean Book of Knowledge? My favorite thing about Milwaukee are the Brewers.
I wouldn't mind seeing the Catman back.
I enjoy singing, SKEEE BOP DOH BAH DOP BOP
It woudln’t surprise me if he and Gerut are on the bench.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Cat's contract
Since the Rangers released him this season, the Brewers are paying him a small percentage of his $4M. He has a $5M club option for 2010. If the Brewers picked up his option, would they be on the hook for the full amount?
If so, then my guess is that they’d let him go to free agency, but then offer him a contract for a lesser amount. I doubt if the Brewers would be willing to pay a backup OF $5M.
Gerut, on the other hand, could probably be had for $2M/yr or less.
2010 and 2011 totals
if you plan on everything from the spreadsheet above, minus hart and hardy but plus ducscherer for 2 years at $4m each and Crawford at 3 years $16 each, then 2010 payroll would be $76.9M with no closer (put coffee in there?) and no starting RF (assuming crawford goes to CF, maybe put catalanatto in right?) and no backup catcher (time for salome?). Ducscherer slides into the SP5 role. If you really want to be safe, take Looper’s option and let Duchscherer start in the bullpen where he has exceled in the past. That would bring the total opening day to $82M, which is right in line with recent years.
2011 comes along and you are left with Fielder, Weeks, Escobar, Gamel, Braun, Crawford, Gallardo, Parra, Duchscherer, Coffey, Stetter, Difelice and Villanueva. Fielder will get about $15M in arb, Gallardo about 3.5 and Parra about 2.5 (Verlander and Wandy Rod. got 3.6 and 2.6 in Arb 1, as comparison). That brings the total only to $55M when you bump up the others salaries a bit for arb years. After that you would need to get 2 SP, a RF, and fill the bench and a couple bullpen guys. If you move Coffey to the closer, lets say the bench and remainder of the bullpen cost you $5M, rounding the total to $60M so far.
Lets say you get a Looper quality guy for one of the SP roles, throw in $6M (6 rather than 5, maybe Bush could be had for 6 in first year of FA? 2 year deal? only 31? dont know where the info is from up top, but he doesnt have 2010 at 5.5M, only this year at 4 and next year is arb 3. he could be had for $6M in 2011).
$66M, need a right fielder and a stud pitcher. Thats a lot of room to wiggle with. Would an internal option be ready by 2011 for RF? Would you throw a Cattalanatto type guy in there and try and get a Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, or Brandon Webb? The timing could work out perfect, because that is three GREAT pitchers that need a home, and FA Josh Beckett will cast a shadow over all of them (if he hasnt resigned by then).
All in all, you can’t just say the money isn’t there without digging down into it. The small market card is unacceptable because we are paying Ryan Braun and Yovanni Gallardo peanuts for the next couple of years compared to their true worth. If you stretch yourself and commit to a 80M payroll in 2010 and a $90M in 2011, this team could be really, really scary.
Escobar
Weeks
Braun
Fielder
Crawford
Gamel
Rivera
RF
P
pretty decent lineup for $90M
by LosinCatmansLove on Aug 18, 2009 12:21 PM CDT reply actions
The info up top
That’s my estimate for arbitration. I tried to shoot a little higher so that I wasn’t entirely overestimating how much money will be available entering FA.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I think you're being overly optimistic...
First off, what makes you think they are interested in Duchscherer? He has been pitching in the minors since recovering from elbow surgery, but he has yet to come back to MLB. If he does pitch with the A’s with some effectiveness this season, then he’ll likely cost more than 2 yrs/$4M.
Secondly, a couple relievers and filling the bench (8 players total) seems underpriced for $5M?
Finally, don’t forget that they are still on the hook for $2M for Suppan and $250k for Riske (to buyout their options if they don’t pick them up).
We'll be ok as long as we get Fielder
captainbok: What do you like the most about milwaukee
Jeff Suppan: Captain Bok, that is a great question. Does "Bok" mean Book of Knowledge? My favorite thing about Milwaukee are the Brewers.
2010 transactions
Trade Hall for Harang and buyout Looper, additional cost 6.75 Mil. (73.65)
Assume JJ Hardy is traded. (68.15)
Rivera starting catcher and Corporan or Salome are backups .4 Mil. (68.55)
For infield Bench pay Counsell 2 Mil. (70.55)
For outfield bench sign Catalanotto 2 mil. (72.55)
The last outfield spot can go to Iribarren or Bourgeois .4Mil. (72.95)
• Suppan would move to the long relief and Coffee would be closer, no cost but we may want to resign Weathers, Colme or Vargas. Also note promotions could come from Smith, Dillard or even Braddock, Aguilar, and Axford.
This will leave 17 Million for one starting pitcher and a center fielder.
CF: Offer arb to Cam and hopefully he turns it down than the best outfielders would be Bay, Dye, Ankeil, and hopefully Crawford.
If Crawford is available for 3 yrs 42 Mil or 14 per year. (86.95)
I have already gone over the budget of 85 but I’m just going to assume make will spend some more on a risky number 2 pitcher.
SP: Gallardo, ____, Harang, Bush, Parra
Possible choices are: Duchscherer, K. Escobar, Hudson, Sheets, Davis, or Washburn. I wonder if any of these pitchers will cost less than 10 mil per year? And Melvin did say in an interview the brewers will need to get SP the next 3 years.
Wait for 2011 to grab that extra pitcher
I dont see the Brewers making two large moves in the same offseason (Crawford and #2 pitcher). Plus, in 2011 you get a crack at Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb with extra money to play with as Suppan, Harang/Hall, and Riske come off the books.
If if we don’t do anything, I’ll look forward to the 2011 offseason because we will be rid of all of our bad contracts. Being a small market team, its a surprise we have been contending with Suppan, Hall and Riske stealing money from us.
by LosinCatmansLove on Aug 20, 2009 9:32 AM CDT reply actions
Brewers can't afford Lee, Halladay, or Webb
no matter how much money comes off the books with Hall and Suppan
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Aug 20, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions
I think I'm on board with the few of you who say Endy Chavez CF '09
How much do you think he would cost?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
He signed a 2 year/$3.85 million contract that expires after this year.
In 2009 he is making $2.05 million. He also only played 54 games this season because he injured his knee and is out for the seaason. His value lies in his defense, which is greatly enhanced by his speed, so signing a guy who tore both his ACL and MCL this season is kind of risky. That does make him a prime candidate to sign a one-year deal, though, and probably for no more than he is making this year.
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