Some incomplete thoughts on the Brewers' 2009 Draft
by KLSnow on Aug 18, 2009 12:00 PM CDT
in Statistical Analysis
17 comments
The deadline has passed with the Brewers signing each of their first 23 picks in the 2009 draft, and 32 of 53 overall. I'm not a draft expert by any stretch of the imagination, but I did notice some interesting trends, and I'd like to take a moment to go over them. Join me after the jump to read more.
Pitching
The Brewers drafted 25 pitchers (47.1% of picks), and signed 14 of them (26.4% of picks, 43.8% of signees). Of the 25, just seven (and only one of the team's first 25 picks) were high school pitchers, and Brooks Hall, who agreed to terms yesterday, was the only one who signed (signees in bold):
Brooks Hall, 4th round
Austin Pressley, 23rd round
Lex Rutledge, 26th round
Brady Rodgers, 39th round
Kyle Hansen, 40th round
Brad Schreiber, 42nd round
Jordan Wong, 46th round
Eighteen of the pitchers drafted pitched in college, and of those, thirteen of them signed:
Eric Arnett, 1st round
Kyle Heckathorn, Supplemental
Hiram Burgos, 6th round
Jon Pokorny, 9th round
Andre Lamontagne, 11th round
Rob Currie, 12th round
Del Howell, 15th round
Tyler Cravy, 17th round
Caleb Thielbar, 18th round
Mike Fiers, 22nd round
Ryan Platt, 27th round
Jose Oviedo, 31st round
Mike Ojala, 34th round
Matt Costello, 35th round
Cullen Sexton, 37th round
Kyle Hansen, 40th round
Andrew Morris, 44th round
Reynaldo Cotilla, 48th round
For whatever it's worth, the Brewers drafted nineteen right handed pitchers (signing ten) and six lefties (signing four).
Outfielders
The Brewers drafted 12 outfielders (22.6% of picks) and signed nine of them (28.1% of signees, 16.9% of picks). Only three of those outfielders were high schoolers, and only one of them was drafted in the first 24 rounds:
Max Walla, 2nd round
Demetrius McKelvie, 25th round
Chandler McLaren, 29th round
The other nine, and most of the early picks, were collegiate players:
Kentrail Davis, Supplemental
D'Vontrey Richardson, 5th round
Khris Davis, 7th round
Chad Stang, 8th round
Scott Krieger, 19th round
Franklin Romero, 20th round
Chris Ellington, 32nd round
Steven Sultzbaugh, 41st round
Trevor Kirk, 47th round
Infielders:
The Brewers drafted eleven infielders (20.7% of picks), and signed seven of them (21.8% of signees, 13.2% of picks). Of them, four were high schoolers, none drafted before the 16th round, and if Scooter Gennett hadn't reached a deal right before the deadline yesterday, none of them would have signed:
Scooter Gennett, 16th round
Brian Vigo-Suarez, 21st round
Jacobbi McDaniel, 33rd round
J.J. Altobelli, 49th round
Vigo-Suarez was the Brewers' highest pick who didn't sign, and the team's only unsigned pick from the first 25 rounds.
Meanwhile, six of seven collegiate infielders signed, including Kyle Dhanani, the only Brewer signee drafted after the 35th round:
Josh Prince, 3rd round
Sean Halton, 13th round
Mike Brownstein, 14th round
Peter Fatse, 24th round
Brandon Sizemore, 30th round
Casey Stevenson, 38th round
Kyle Dhanani, 43rd round
Of those seven picks, Prince, Fatse and Dhanani have already been promoted to Wisconsin, and Brownstein was promoted today.
Here's the positional breakdown for those players:
Four second basemen (three signed)
Four shortstops (two signed)
Two third basemen (one signed)
One first baseman (one signed)
Catchers
The Brewers drafted five catchers (9.4% of picks) and signed two (6.3% of signees, 3.7% of picks). Interestingly enough, all five of the draftees were high school players:
Cameron Garfield, 2nd round
Tyler Roberts, 10th round
Geno Escalante, 28th round
Richard Stock, 45th round
Darren Farmer, 50th round
Conclusions
It's hard to draw definitive conclusions from one draft, even for someone with a much deeper draft background than I have. With that said, coming off the first draft in the post Jack Z. era, here's what I noticed:
Drafting pitchers still does not appear to be a priority. Despite a real lack of pitching prospects in the organization, the Brewers drafted just five arms in their first thirteen picks in the draft, and significantly less than 50% of both their picks and signings were pitchers.
College players appear to be preferred over high school players at all positions except catcher. The Brewers drafted two high school players in the second round and another in the fourth, but just five high school players with their first 23 picks. I would guess most teams end up with a draft board with half a dozen or more unsigned pitchers, but the Brewers signed just one of seven, compared to thirteen of eighteen collegiate arms.
On the other side of the coin, the Brewers drafted five catchers, all of which were high schoolers, and signed two of them.
The team added a lot of organizational depth here. Opening the franchise wallet to pay all of these picks, some of them significantly above slot, demonstrates a commitment to building the right way that should not go unnoticed. If this draft doesn't work out, it won't be because the Brewers went cheap.
0 recs |
17 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
“Opening the franchise wallet to pay all of these picks, some of them significantly above slot, demonstrates a commitment to building the right way that should not go unnoticed. If this draft doesn’t work out, it won’t be because the Brewers went cheap.”
Let us hope these above slot picks want to play some actual baseball.
by Braunstalker on Aug 18, 2009 12:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Still the best way to get talent
Even with the above-slot bonuses, they Brewers added a bunch of talent to their system at a cheap price. The draft is still the best and cheapest way to do that.
by kingcharlesxii on Aug 18, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if I'd say
drafting pitching wasn’t a priority. I mean, we drafted 4 pitchers in the first 6 rounds, including our top two picks, and three of the four are college guys. Seven pitchers after 12 rounds seems like a decent pitching haul.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 18, 2009 1:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Two of the top three picks were pitchers. Davis was drafted before Heckathorn.
They did draft four pitchers in the first six rounds, but that’s out of nine opportunities.
Whether the philosophy is right or wrong, they seemed to stick with the logic that position players are a better bet because they’re more projectable. I don’t have the numbers in front of me to know if the Brewers drafted more or less pitchers than other teams, but the number they signed seems low to me, as a non-expert.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Aug 18, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's also the seemingly little-known fact that the Brewers drafted 19 pitchers in their first 28 selections *last* year...
Another puss who hides behind crap.
by Zeyes on Aug 19, 2009 7:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking around the division
The Cubs drafted 23 pitchers in 50 picks, and signed 11 of them. (46%, 22%)
The Reds drafted 23 pitchers in 51 picks, and signed 16 of them (45%, 31%)
The Astros drafted 25 pitchers in 51 picks, and signed 16 of them (49%, 31%)
The Pirates drafted 32 pitchers in 51 picks, and signed 14 of them (63%, 27%)
The Cardinals drafted 29 pitchers in 50 picks, and signed 27 of them (58%, 54%)
So, of the five other teams in the division, three of them drafted more pitchers (by percentage of picks) than the Brewers did, but only the Cardinals signed more.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Aug 18, 2009 1:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Anyone see impact talent?
I hope Davis is worth the headache he put the front office through, and by no means we didn’t go cheap (spent the 10th most in baseball).
Anyway, I think we need clarity from crazy women obsessed with Ferrets
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Aug 18, 2009 2:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
On spending the tenth most in baseball
How is that calculated? The Brewers spent a lot of money on picks this year, but they also had five picks before the end of the second round, so it makes sense that they would.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Aug 18, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
From the Baseball America Draft Blog
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Aug 18, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh
and that’s the 1st 10 rounds
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Aug 18, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of BA
In today’s chat , Jim Callis reiterated that he liked the Brewer draft:
I liked their draft a lot. Their top three picks—Arnett, Davis and Heckathorn—were good talent values for where they went. Max Walla can really hit, they spent to add Brooks Hall’s upside in the fourth round and Del Howell was a steal in the 15th round. Ditto for Scooter Gennett in the 16th.
- Jim Callis, Baseball America
by Capt Science on Aug 18, 2009 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oops...
looks like someone else fanshotted this. apologies for being redundant.
by Capt Science on Aug 18, 2009 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Collegiate vs. HS
In the past, the Brewers have focused on HS pitchers. The philosphy, according to interviews I read with Doug Melvin, was that although the risk was higher, the upside was also higher with HS pitchers. The higher risk is because there are more unknowns. HS players in general have not played against better talent. Many have dominated lesser talent. Work ethic, dealing with adversity, dealing with leaving home, dealing with outside pitfalls (marijuana, for example), pressure of performance are all things which are more at risk. They also may have not entirely matured physically. The other downside is that they are 2-4 years away from the majors. It was never clear to me why there was more upside in HS pitchers, but that was what I had heard Doug M. say.
Other organizations have been very successful picking college pitchers. The upside is that they are more polished and much closer to ML ready. Top picks can be within a year or less of the majors. There is less risk, especially pitchers from top schools, as they have faced top competition for a couple years. College level coaching is often very solid. The A’s are one organization which had the opposite philosophy as the Brewers and had success in the past (Hudson, Zito, Mulder, etal.). I don’t have any data, but there are certainly examples of college pitchers in the recent past who have as much upside as any HS school pitcher. Lincecum, David Price, Dan Haren, Cliff Lee, and Jason Verlander are all former college players.
There are certainly HS (or foreign players) who skipped college and are top pitchers (Zambrano, Johan, Felix Hernandez, Carpenter, Cain, Halladay, Sabathia).
It seems, based on KLSnow’s data, that the Brewers changed their philosophy and focused on drafting pitchers over HS pitchers. I wonder if it is a short term thing because there is not much ML ready pitching in the system and they are looking to fast track guys to Milwaukee. Or is this the philosophy going forward in the future?
by jimf on Aug 18, 2009 2:34 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
College vs high school
The A’s have actually taken the opposite tact in recent years, drafting more high school arms, partly because college pitchers became overvalued after Moneyball.
Rany Jazayerli did a 12-part epic evaluation of this very topic in 2005 for Baseball Prospectus and showed that whether a high school or college hitter or pitcher was more valuable swung throughout the years. As of 2005, the high school pitcher, on average, was a more valuable pick than a college one. Whether that is still true is tough to say – there isn’t enough data on recent picks yet to be sure. The general rule that I think is that you should just choose the guy you think is better and not worry if he’s a college or high school pitcher – each has their own inherent risks (college pitchers often get overused, high school pitchers usually have bad secondary stuff and haven’t faced tough competition).
by kingcharlesxii on Aug 18, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've always assumed that...
“college pitchers have less upside” is just shorthand for “for any given level of ‘upside’, there are fewer college pitchers than HS pitchers” (and so are harder to draft in large quantities), simply because a significant percentage of players who used to have such upside before entering college have already lost it by the time they’re draft-eligible again three years later.
Another puss who hides behind crap.
by Zeyes on Aug 19, 2009 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or the 18 year olds with high upside have already been drafted
Leaving the remainder to go to college.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Aug 19, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
there's probably some truth to that....
…or at least that might be the belief leading to the statement “college pitchers have less upside.”
To me, “upside” is a term to put positive spin on an unknown variable. So when Zeyes says college players lost it (upside) three years later, I would say the unknown of how much they might improve is now known to be “not enough.”
A couple other thoughts I had about college vs. HS. Another risk about HS kids is that you may end up wasting a pick on a HS kid who may not sign. He has college as an option. (see the Rangers top pick who turned down $4mil.) Furthermore, because of that leverage HS kids often get more money to sign to sway them away from going to college. In general, a kid serious about going to college gets at least the value of their scholarship to sign (> $400k). I know first hand of a kid a couple years ago who was drafted in a 20-something round mostly because he indicated his (and his family’s) preference to go to school. It turned out that the team that drafted him did not sign a couple top picks. So they came back and offered him $500k including a college fund for him when baseball was over.
College kids have no such leverage (unless you hire Scott Boras apparently). So it would seem to be cheaper to draft college players.
by jimf on Aug 19, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.22.2009 at 4:31 AM CST)
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
