Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are Really Good

by Jordan M on Aug 2, 2009 7:00 PM CDT

A projection is not only a best guess at future production but also a good estimate to the true talent level of a player. It basically averages out a player's past performance, with an emphasis on what he has done most recently, and a few adjustments for age and park and such.

Fangraphs has a neat projection feature, Rest-of-season ZiPS (rzips or ROS in the player columns). It changes daily based on performance so far, and it will give you the cumulative stats and the rate stats.

So if you head on over to fangraphs and click the "ZIPS (ROS)" tab under projections, you will see a list sorted by wOBA that gives you the hitters projected to be the best in baseball from today until the end of the year. That also can be looked at as a true-talent estimate. And if you're unfamiliar with wOBA, all you have to know is that it takes each event-- home run, double, strikeout-- and assigns the run value that the event produces in an average situation. It's then scaled to OBP, where league average is about .333. It's the best overall measure of hitting we can create.

So to get to the point here, Braun is second in projected wOBA behind Pujols (and it's a wide margin, .447 to .412). Fielder is tied for third with Chipper Jones at .411. The next pair of teammates is Chase Utley at #8 and Ryan Howard at #12.

Fielder and Braun are each projected to hit 15 homers, behind only Howard's 17. Pujols is projected for 14 more.

You can legitimately make the case that with Braun and Fielder, the Brewers have 2 of the top 3 hitters in baseball right now. That's incredible. I don't know whether to be extremely happy that they're both under team control for the next two seasons, or to be a little sad that this pitching staff has bailed out on them and a year of them mashing together might not be enough to get the Brewers in the playoffs. I'll choose to focus on the part where they're under control for 2010 and 2011.

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I wish I had something more to add

other than, “Damn, that’s really awesome.”

Seriously, though, I’ve been thinking for a while that Braun is probably the best hitter in the NL, non-Pujols division. It’s pretty cool to see that,

a) ZiPS agrees with me, and even removes the “in the NL” qualifier, and

b) Prince is right up there with him.

Also, is it just me, or is it kind of weird that, at least according to that projection, the best hitters in baseball are overwhelmingly in the NL? Maybe it’s just a coincidence, or maybe it suggests that NL teams try to find better hitters to make up for the pitcher having to bat? Then again, you would think that AL teams would have better hitters, ‘cause they have a DH slot where they can stick a guy who’s just good at hitting and nothing else. It’s pretty weird.

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Aug 2, 2009 7:46 PM CDT reply actions

the DH often goes to players who can still hit

but have seen their better days, the proven hitters who don’t have much left to give in the way of defense, because if they were good defenders, they’d be out there and freeing up the DH for someone who can hit but can’t do much else

by pharom on Aug 2, 2009 8:02 PM CDT up reply actions

AL vs NL

I think hitters are rated better in the NL, not because they are better hitters, but because the pitching in the AL is so much better that the hitters there aren’t projected to do well the rest of the season.

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 4, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions

At what point

Do they trade Fielder away for a boatload of prospects?

I agree that he is one of the best players in the league right now. It will be interesting to see how much MVP attention he will get if the Brewers finish under .500.

But this years team is a glaring example of why all offense and little pitching doesnt work very well. The best long term solution for the team come next August, or after 2010 will probably be to trade Fielder and get at least two very nice, mlb ready pitching prospects, in addtion to a couple of other very nice players.

Even with the improvements in the pitching depth in the system, the organization is pretty short on front line rotation type of guys. A move involving Fielder could change that very fast.

I am willing to bet that Braun stays with the team even past the end of his contract, unless they go into all out rebuild mode in the next 3 to 4 years.

by backtocali on Aug 2, 2009 9:14 PM CDT reply actions

flipping fielder for prospect pitchers

is that necesscarily a good idea? What would be the average difference between the performance a pitcher in our minor league system or that we pick ourselves in the draft can do vs this solid prospect of which you speak? Can we necesscarily rely on that pitcher being “front line rotation” (which i assume means #1 or #2) in a reasonable period of time?

What is the difference between Fielder and the next-guy-on-the-depth-chart?

Might we be throwing away fielder for nothing more than a bag of potato chips?

From what I’ve observed in my years of fandom (so…basically take this with a grain of saltmachhia) – pitchers have sucked ever since the teams were expanded to 30 (pitchers dilute more than hitters). Moreover, many of the top pitching prospects get injured or decide to revert to a primordial state of suckitude.

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 3, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Would you accept

A deal with the Red Sox, where Clay Buchholz AND Daniel Bard came on board, as well as a couple of position level prospects in a deal for Fielder? If the Sawx were to bite?

You could of course replace Casey Kelly for Bard perhaps (two guys, who if signability werent an issue the Brewers should have drafted over different players imho).

Of course this also works with any other high budget team with pitching prospects aplenty.

The Padres just gave up Peavy for two MLB guys. Would you have accepted Fielder for Poreda, Richard and a couple of position players type of deal when Fielder gets closer to his FA time? I think its the smart thing to do to build the pitching depth.

by backtocali on Aug 3, 2009 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions

Is there really a dramatic difference

between trading a player with 1 year of service left vs 2? Would the gain offset the loss in production for that year?
I wonder this whenever the subject of trading Prince early is mentioned.
Just curious any good examples of the hauls for 1 year vs 2 year vs half season rental.

by Zorakathura on Aug 2, 2009 10:15 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

Look at Johan, Lee and CC as examples

Twins got what they thought was 4 very good prospects. Yankees and Sox were rumored to have thrown in at least 4 names apiece of highly ranked prospects for Johan Santana for 1 year.

Carlos Lee was just dealt for 1.5 years and it took 4 top prospects to get him.

And the Brewers, in the mad dash to get a playoff spot, probably overpaid for a 1/2 year for CC, but they gave up 3 players.

Just imagine if Prince were dealt next offseason, that would be 1.5 years of a power hitting, every day player. They probably get a haul just like the Rangers got for Teixeira, 4 highly ranked, B level prospects. Saltamacchia, Andrus, Harrision were all B graded by John Sickels at the time. The Brewers could really stock the upper levels of the organizational pitching depth with a trade involving Fielder, if they felt the time was right.

by backtocali on Aug 2, 2009 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions

I disagree with backtocali. Personally I do not feel that the crew overpaid for CC at all. LaPorta was rated as the #1 prospect by Baseball America and other sources but it was clear that the organization didn’t feel that way as they made Escobar and Gamel untouchable in the same trade. This has also been backed up by LaPorta’s struggles in the bigs this year. Sure we traded 4 prospects to ensure the teams first playoffs in years and with the way the fans responded I would be hard pressed to ever say they overpaid, but Bryson just started a rehab assignment after missing the entire year, Brantley has been struggling all season, and Zach Jack is surely not missed. None of the prospects he mentioned are excelling. LaPorta could still turn out to be great or he could be the next Will Inman. If the trade turns out to be LaPorta and 3 people that didn’t make it I think the crew has a good grasp on values.

Secondly, the Carlos Deal is an extremely bad reference in comparing a Prince trade, we were all here and all saw it. That team was in transition just like the Mariners this year trying to be buyers and sellers at the same time. They didn’t want to show the fanbase that they just weren’t good enough while acquiring pieces that could help them in the near future. This would not be the case for Prince.

Third everyone knew the Twins got a bs package from the Twins but where are you going to trade a guy with a no trade clause demanding a $120 million extension. The twins shot themselves in the foot passing on earlier packages from the Yanks and Red Sox and had to settle the same as the Blue Jays would have had to do with Halladay but refused.

by Menace II Sobriety on Aug 3, 2009 1:10 AM CDT reply actions

Cliff Lee

Not Carlos…

At the time the Brewers could have never imagined that CC would be 7 WAR for the last part of 08. I simply meant that it was an overpay to give up 3 guys, for a 3 month rental. And two of them top 10, with LaPorta being a top 50 guy in the league.

by backtocali on Aug 3, 2009 6:11 AM CDT up reply actions

Yes the pitching has been awful lately

But the Brewers have lost a fair share of game where the offense did not make it to 3 runs even that first game with the Padres was not that good of a performance by the bat. Yes they scored 7 runs but they also got very lucky if Looper does not get a hit to start that big inning with 2 outs they get zilch and most likely get shut out since they did not score another run the rest of the game?

It is a shame they cannot get both sides of the game synced up give up 7 runs on the nights they cannot hit. lol

it is still amazing that this team is still in the hunt for the division the way they are playing

Let me spell it for you Cub fans O N E H U N D R E D A N D O N E Y E A R S

by WSB Chris on Aug 3, 2009 9:13 AM CDT reply actions

It's pretty depressing

To have 2 of the best hitters in all of the major leauges and were not even viewed as a playoff threat to any baseball experts.

by PrinceforPrez on Aug 3, 2009 9:20 AM CDT reply actions

Think of How

The Nationals Feel…

They have 3 of the best hitters in baseball this year and have been killed by the injury to C Jesus Flores. But they have, according to BA’s Equivalent Average, 3 of the best 10 hitters in the game (and the top 2 are better than Braun/Fielder) in Josh Willinham, Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman.

by backtocali on Aug 10, 2009 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Really?

We all know that you go around and talk down the Brewers to every other team in the league, but do you have to talk up the other teams here?

"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender!"

RIP Nick Adenhart - Stop Drunk Driving

by kirbir on Aug 10, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions

I think the projections are broken

They have Kendall pounding out an unholy 621 OPS the rest of the way. That would put him at muscular 595 OPS for the season in 476 ABs.

by Getting Yosted on Aug 3, 2009 10:22 AM CDT reply actions

Projection systems are pretty bad with outliers

The system probably wasn’t designed with that many ABs and that low of an OPS. No one should have that many at bats and that low an OPS. Kendall broke it.

by ecocd on Aug 3, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions

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