When do you throw in the towel?
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 20, 2009 1:16 PM CDT
34 comments
The Brewers are at about the 3/4 mark of the season, and with 42 games left their playoff chances don't look very good. Let's assume, for a moment, that tomorrow night is the start of the biggest hot streak to close a season in Brewer history. The Brewers are about to go 32-10 (.762 winning pct) the rest of the way, and will finish the 2009 season with 88 wins. They would then win the NL Central if:
- The Cardinals went 18-22 or worse, and
- The Cubs went 26-18 or worse, and
- The Astros went 29-13 or worse.
Or, they would win the wild card if:
- The Rockies went 20-22 or worse, and
- The Giants went 21-21 or worse, and
- The Marlins went 23-19 or worse, and
- The Braves went 24-18 or worse, and
- The Cubs went 26-18 or worse, and
- The Astros went 29-13 or worse.
Bear in mind, for any of this to be relevant, the Brewers would have to win slightly more than three out of four games the rest of the way, and at the moment they're really struggling to get back to .500 in a month against bad teams. With that said, there's still an extremely outside shot they could get really hot, hotter than they were in August last season, and have no one else in front of them play well, and they could make the playoffs. Depending on who you ask, the chance is around 1% or less.
So, where do you stand on this season?
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I would like to add
that although I voted ‘I gave up weeks ago,’ I still watch and enjoy almost every game.
Ditto.
For the record, getting swept by the Pirates ended it for me, although it has been on life support for about a month.
by kingcharlesxii on Aug 20, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Hope is a nebulous concept
I lost hope that they’d make the playoffs a while ago
I still have hope that this season will end positively (as positively as not making the playoffs can end I guess) and that 2010 will look promising
same here
If “hope” means “hope to make the playoffs” I gave that up in October ’08.
I just hope they finish over .500, that’s all. I’ve come to realize that I really don’t expect much from this team at all except, perhaps, not to finish in 6th.
I Posted in the Fantasy Baseball Update about Fantasy Football
that should tell you all you need to know about my hope. And I’m on strike
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
I was losing hope
But the realization and actual numbers of this post put it in perspective. So I voted just recently meaning like 30 seconds ago.
I won't give up hope until the season's over!
Ruben Flores is the new CC Sabathia.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Anyone else have so little hope...
… that they think backtocali’s right and they should try to get Cam and Hoffman through waivers? I hate to say it, but I’m starting to see some sense in that idea, though they might not get enough in exchange to make foregoing the draft pick compensation worth it.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 20, 2009 2:00 PM CDT reply actions
There's some sense in it
But what would it mean for the marketing of the team? At least the Hoffman bobblehead night was earlier in the season. I’m sure a lot of tickets have been sold already but conducting a fire sale of the remaining halfway decent players not on the DL isn’t any way to sell any more tickets.
Sorry I hit return too soon...
This is something people often forget when suggesting blowing everything up. That loss of revenue is a huge deal in this market. Selling everyone might be logical, but fans aren’t logical.
by Zorakathura on Aug 20, 2009 2:10 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I realized that isn't clear.
I mean fans won’t come and blow money at the stadium if there is a feeling that management has dumped the season.
by Zorakathura on Aug 20, 2009 2:12 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
My concern
I’m worried they won’t get compensation for Hoffman.
Assuming the team offers him arbitration and he rejects it (which isn’t a given), he’ll be a Type A free agent and it’ll cost someone a draft pick to sign him.
Now, he’s a very good closer, but he’s also old and not an elite one, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he has a hard time finding a suitor that’s willing to pay what he’s worth and sacrifice the pick. I’m not sure what happens from there, maybe he ends up taking a pay cut and coming back to Milwaukee, but I worry that the market won’t buy him if the cost is an early pick.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
Waivers
Couldn’t they put them both out there, then pull them back if they don’t get any decent offers.
It makes for a strange environment
You make a great point about the compensation picks. Hoffman might actually be best to accept arbitration. He would certainly rather have a multi-year contract , except how many teams would be willing to offer both a 2-year contract and give up a draft pick? If he rejects arbitration and the feelers just aren’t there, he’s left the Brewers in a pretty dominant negotiating situation – they’re his only option and with Coffey in the bullpen they won’t need a closer. Then Hoffman ends up signing with the Brewers for $500-750k less than he would have gotten in arbitration.
Did MLB design this system to give teams a chance to retain their free agents or is it meant primarily to compensate teams with a draft pick when they can’t afford to pay a free agent?
I think I’d be pretty happy with an arbitration contract for his services next year.
Well, the pendulum has kind of swung the other way.
Draft pick compensation was meant to be just that, compensation to teams that couldn’t afford to retain free agents.
Because the balance of the game has shifted towards developing young talent, though, that draft pick compensation now means teams are effectively trading a stud prospect for a Type A free agent, plus committing to the contract, and even the most money-flush teams see the value in keeping that pick.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
Simple rule:
Backtocali is never right.
by Zorakathura on Aug 20, 2009 2:05 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 4 recs
I was holding out just a little bit of hope for a while
but I’ve recently lost what little was left of that hope. But I would like to echo Braunstalker’s statement in saying that I will continue to watch every game and cheer on the Crew (and look forward to a higher draft pick next year).
"my goodness"
I'm still watching the games, and will continue to do so
but I gave up hope for the postseason around the end of July, when we hit the soft part of our schedule (post ASB – Aug 20) and showed no sign of turning it around, even though we were playing very poor to mediocre teams.
All I can say is thank the FSM for netflix
As much as I like the Brewers they are entertainment and watching them play bad baseball is not the best use of my time, I usually start the game either on TV or on my IPhone and as soon as it looks like they are going south I check out. Now there are nights like the come back vs Cleveland or the night the Dodgers closer blew up where that tactic does not work but 85% of the time turning the game off to read a book or watch a movie is the right choice
The Cult of Cameron Live it Love it never question your love for our Center Fielder.
Greatest Brewers to ever lace them up.
I lost hope in the Cincinnati series after the AS break. The way that they played going into the break and then came out of the break was the beginning of the end for me… or at least when I started giving up hope.
by Saberilliterate on Aug 20, 2009 8:46 PM CDT reply actions
It has happened though...
Since 1901, twenty-three teams have won 3/4 or more of their games after August 20. These teams include the most famous comeback teams in baseball history — the 1914 Miracle Braves, the 1951 “Shot Heard Round the World” Giants, and the 1978 Bucky Dent Yankees.
Most recently in 2004, Houston was 60-61 on August 20. They were 19.5 games out of first and 6.5 games behind in the wild card. They proceeded to go 32-9 the rest of way under Phil Garner and made the playoffs.
In 1993, it happened twice. Montreal and Atlanta both went 30-9 after August 20. Atlanta won the NL West and Montreal finished second in the East in baseball’s last non-wild-card season. Atlanta had been 7.5 games behind on August 20.
The storied 1969 Mets were 7 games behind the Cubs on August 20. They didn’t quite win 3/4 of their games, finishing out the season with a .744 post August 20 record of 32-11, and going on to be World Champs.
Another team that went 32-11 after August 20 was the 1982 Baltimore Orioles, but fortunately that wasn’t quite good enough.
The Brewers are unlikely to make baseball history this season, but they shouldn’t give up. When you are selling 3 million tickets a year, you can’t just pull the rug out from under your fans, for whatever you can get from Cameron and Hoffman (which wouldn’t be that much, anyway).
Hey, the Brewers need to sign this guy!
Baseball Superstar Accused of Performance-Enhancing Genie Use
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I've seen this before...
32 wins down the stretch? Isn’t that the streak that the Indians needed to make the playoffs in Major League? Maybe we just need a peel-a-section cutout of our b*tchy showgirl owner to “bring it all together”.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
57 | 46 | .553 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
56 | 46 | .549 | 0.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
48 | 55 | .466 | 9 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
46 | 56 | .450 | 10.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
42 | 59 | .415 | 14 | Won 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
36 | 65 | .356 | 20 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.30.2010 at 4:51 AM CDT)
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