When do you throw in the towel?

The Brewers are at about the 3/4 mark of the season, and with 42 games left their playoff chances don't look very good. Let's assume, for a moment, that tomorrow night is the start of the biggest hot streak to close a season in Brewer history. The Brewers are about to go 32-10 (.762 winning pct) the rest of the way, and will finish the 2009 season with 88 wins. They would then win the NL Central if:

  • The Cardinals went 18-22 or worse, and
  • The Cubs went 26-18 or worse, and
  • The Astros went 29-13 or worse.

Or, they would win the wild card if:

  • The Rockies went 20-22 or worse, and
  • The Giants went 21-21 or worse, and
  • The Marlins went 23-19 or worse, and
  • The Braves went 24-18 or worse, and
  • The Cubs went 26-18 or worse, and
  • The Astros went 29-13 or worse.

Bear in mind, for any of this to be relevant, the Brewers would have to win slightly more than three out of four games the rest of the way, and at the moment they're really struggling to get back to .500 in a month against bad teams. With that said, there's still an extremely outside shot they could get really hot, hotter than they were in August last season, and have no one else in front of them play well, and they could make the playoffs. Depending on who you ask, the chance is around 1% or less.

So, where do you stand on this season?

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