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Batting Order - Switch Braun and Fielder?

After Prince's four-walk game, which KL gave some good info on, I got to thinking about the batting order.

Clearly, Prince is having a career year, and if not for Albert Pujols, he'd be the lead candidate for MVP, so maybe we shouldn't be messing with what works, but with Prince's increased on-base percentage, I wondered if it wouldn't make sense to switch Braun and Fielder in the batting order.

With all the other lineup and position shakeups, it might make sense to try this in a limited sense here at the end of the season.

Prince is protecting Braun, forcing teams to pitch to Braun. But with the constant lineup flux, there hasn't been a solid #5 guy and therefore there's been no one in the middle of the lineup that scares teams into pitching to Prince. They can be careful or intentionally walk him. 

If the two are switched, then Braun gets the protection and because of Prince's numbers, teams would have to be careful about pitching to him, as well.

Batting in the four hole would also open up Braun's running game. The theory that there's no point risking an out on the bases with Prince up to bat has really stymied Braun's ability to steal bases. He's got speed and is a legitimate SB threat, but that's a facet of his game the team never gets to take advantage of.

It would make a difference later in games when the Brewers force a team to go to their bullpen. By protecting Fielder with Braun, there's a possibility of  forcing teams to head to their bullpen earlier than they might have otherwise. It also forces the team to use two guys immediately, as they won't likely leave the LOOGY in for Braun. It would be forcing the hand of teams who may try to push a pitcher or fudge things a little when their bullpen is tired.

A lot of the possible arguments for switching the two are intangible - there's no stat to quantify one protecting the other, so it's an argument based on possibilities and feeling - but it seems like an idea that at least merits some discussion.

0 recs  |  Comment 26 comments |

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It's really crazy

but the main reason this hasn’t happened is because of the poor performance both Fielder and Braun put up when batting 3-4 last year under Yost to start the season. The sample size is incredibly small but both sluggers publicly said they preferred Braun in the 3 spot and Fielder in the 4 spot. Yost caved, and I doubt we ever see it again.

by UWbrewball on Aug 24, 2009 7:47 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Because the rest fo the season is about "mess[ing] with it"

Give them a low-pressure month to get accustomed to it or put the renewed discussion to bed before the 2010 season even begins.

by ecocd on Aug 24, 2009 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blog discussion?

Moving them up a slot to 2-3 is more interesting to me. More AB’s for both.

by Zorakathura on Aug 24, 2009 9:01 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

As cool as it would be

I just don’t think it would ever happen. Macha (and pretty much everyone else, for that matter) doesn’t seem that interested in bucking conventional baseball wisdom.

by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 24, 2009 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well we are batting the pitcher 8th these days.

It seems like it sets up a move to 2-3 even more. Of course as you said they’ll never do this. The same way teams will still put the shift on & send LOOGYs against Prince, no matter how pointless it becomes.

by Zorakathura on Aug 24, 2009 9:46 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

as i recall, wasn't there also talk on the board of moving braun into the 2 hole?

and fielder to 3?

"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin

by sowingwildoats on Aug 24, 2009 8:20 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Why?

Seems like it would be less RBIs for both of them.

by sjlee on Aug 24, 2009 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not if you stick with the pitcher in the 8 spot.

More AB’s would compensate for the 1 inning without the extra hitter. Then again, most likely it’s a statistical wash.

by Zorakathura on Aug 24, 2009 9:52 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

one more at-bat every 9th game

vs fewer runners to drive in the first (1 of 4 or 5 PAs) every day.

I know which I pick;)

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 25, 2009 6:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like a good idea to me.

I’d love to see Prince get more hittable pitches.

by Legend54321 on Aug 24, 2009 9:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Despite my comment above,

I’m not against this, but I wonder wouldn’t a change in order simply make Brauns obp go up & Princes go down?

by Zorakathura on Aug 24, 2009 9:18 PM CDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Confused

For starters, the Brewers already tried this a few times last season with poor results.

Secondly, this would force pitchers to pitch to Fielder, but who would protect Braun? Sounds like you’re really just going to swap their numbers around.

by sjlee on Aug 24, 2009 9:47 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well that would still

Open up the running game for Braun and making it harder to use LOOGYs against Prince. If the worst case is that it would be a wash, I think it’s worth a shot.

It’s funny, btw, that managers continue to bring out lefty relievers to face Prince when he’s proven this year that he mashes them about just as well as right-handed pitchers. That said, much like I don’t expect Macha to go too crazy with the lineup ‘cause it’s just not how things are done, I don’t expect managers to stop bringing out a LOOGY to face Prince…‘cause that’s just what you do against a big lefty slugger…

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Aug 24, 2009 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If I recall correctly

Historically, Fielder hits lefties okay, but not nearly as well as righties.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=fieldpr01&year=Career&t=b#plato

This year his slugging and BA are pretty comparable, but he’s getting on base less against lefties since his walk totals are down.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=fieldpr01&year=2009&t=b#plato

The advantage may not be as large as against some hitters, but it’s still worthwhile bringing in a LOOGY against Fielder.

by ecocd on Aug 24, 2009 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But- do you burn your lone lefty in the pen to face fielder (when he is hitting both RH & LH equally) – or do you burn your lone lefty against another LH brewer?

There are times in which I can visualize a manager using his LOOGY on someone other than Prince because he has a higher chance of getting that out in that situation than he does getting Prince out.

by Saberilliterate on Aug 25, 2009 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

a couple of teams have burned their LOOGY vs Counsell so far.

then there’s also the issue that a couple point drop in slg for fielder is perhaps more significant than a couple point drop for another leftie.

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 25, 2009 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This would work in theory

but Braun and Fielder are very different players. Braun would be pitched around more often just like Fielder is now. Braun, however, does not have the same batter’s eye as Fielder and many of the walks that Fielder is getting now in the cleanup spot would turn into pop-ups and groundouts for Braun in that same spot. Sure Fielder’s HR’s and Runs would go up, but his OBP would likely see a small dip and his batting average would stay about the same assuming he shows the same plate discipline. Braun’s numbers would go down as the extra walks he would be taking would easily be wiped out by the extra outs he would be making on pitches out of the zone. While Fielder may see a slight increase in his production by batting third, Braun’s production would undoubtedly decrease dramatically to the point that overall this change would likely have a negative impact. Even though there really would be “nothing to lose” by trying this for the rest of the season, Braun’s and Fielder’s confidence levels could be affected in such a way that their production next year could be hurt (look at Bill Hall and JJ Hardy as guys that put too much pressure on themselves).

by diegop89 on Aug 24, 2009 10:24 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

nothing wrong with the idea

however, as others have said, this was tried before. mainly early in 2008. both guys were struggling and after they were switched back (Braun to 3rd, Prince to 4th) they both stated that they preferred the order we see now. so given their preferences I don’t see it changing.

by Tristram28 on Aug 24, 2009 10:42 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Fielder #2

Braun #4

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Aug 25, 2009 2:36 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

i hear you

but what about the “clogging the basepaths” theory – which although typically invalid has some weight here.

Prince isn’t incredibly likely to be able to break up a double-play, especially with a hardy-esque player hitting #3.

Also, Prince would get a lot of IBBs (due to the potential for the double-play) which might throw him a bit off his hitting game.

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 25, 2009 6:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about Mat Gamel?

We know that Mat Gamel will probably be up and playing most days next year. Anybody think he can hit in the 2 hole? Then you would have Gamel, Braun, Fielder, forcing the other manager to either burn his bullpen or have a lefty pitch to Braun.

You also might be able to argue for 3. Fielder, 4. Braun, 5. Gamel and get the same thing.

by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 25, 2009 7:35 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

3. Fielder, 4. Braun, 5. Gamel should be the order next year

by Saberilliterate on Aug 25, 2009 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd love to see

1. Weeks
2. Escobar
3. Braun
4. Fielder
5. Gamel

"Cubs suck. I own them" -Doug Davis

by Metagen on Aug 25, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A few thoughts
  • Fielder almost certainly has a platoon split. The fact that he hasn’t had much of one this year is more than likely just a fluke. Perhaps his platoon split is below average but it takes many years before one could conclude it with any certainty.
  • The whole protection thing has little statistical evidence to back itself up with. At the very least, the debate is still wide open. IBB’s go up, certainly. That’s not always a bad thing, however.
  • I think it would make very little difference who bats first in the long run. It’s probably not even worth messing with.

by rluzinski on Aug 25, 2009 12:41 PM CDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

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