On draft positioning

by KLSnow on Aug 28, 2009 12:02 PM CDT in Statistical Analysis Comment 11 comments

Last time we checked in with Andy Seiler, he had the Brewers projected to pick 12th in the 2010 June Draft. They've gone 1-3 since then to fall to 61-66, giving them a firmer grip on that spot. At present, they're still two games better than Toronto, who has the 11th spot, and a game worse than Houston, who holds pick #13.

With 35 games left to play, now seems like as good a time as any to take a look at how the Brewers can change their draft standing in the remaining month of the 2009 season. Follow the jump for the full table, but first, a few notes and disclaimers:

For the purpose of projections, I assumed every major league team except the Brewers would continue on their current pace. This obviously won't happen but it gives us a basic starting point.
Assuming teams continue on their current pace, the Brewers cannot finish with baseball's best or worst record. Going 35-0 the rest of the way would leave them at 96-66, five games back of the Yankees, who project to win 101 games. Going 0-35 would leave them at 61-101, three games better than the Nationals, who project to go 58-104. All other outcomes are possible, at least mathematically.
2010 draft order will be determined by 2009 record, with 2008 record being used as a tiebreaker. Because the Brewers had baseball's sixth best record in 2008, they only have a tiebreaker advantage over five teams.
The Rangers (#15) and Rays (#31) will receive compensation picks in next year's draft for failing to sign this year's first round picks, so the final pick in the first round will be #32.

Follow the jump for more, and the table of outcomes.

Brewer record	Draft Pick
3-32 or worse	2
5-30 or 4-31	3
6-29	4
8-27 or 7-28	5
9-26 or 10-25	6
11-24 or 12-23	9
13-22, 14-21 or 15-20	11
16-19	12
17-18	13
18-17	14
19-16 or 20-15	16
21-14	17
22-13	18
23-12	20
24-11	21
25-10, 26-9 or 27-8	22
28-7	23
29-6 or 30-5	24
31-4	26
32-3 or 33-2	27
34-1	28
35-0	30

I know this table is a confusing, jumbled up mess, so if someone has a better idea for how to display it, I'm open to suggestions.

Worth noting, though: Picks 1-16 (the first 15 picks, plus the Rangers' compensation pick) in the 2010 Draft will be protected, meaning the Brewers could not lose it as compensation for signing a Type A free agent. The Brewers will stay in the protected picks with a record of 19-16 or worse the rest of the way.

And, of course, this is not an excuse to root against the Brewers the rest of the way, just a nice silver lining to look at if they continue to play as they have lately.

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One way to clean it up

Would be to eliminate the loss figures and just list wins. You could label it as “wins over the last 35 games.” Then “13-22, 14-21 or 15-20” becomes “13-15.”

by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 28, 2009 1:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Right

But when I tried it that way, it looked like a record. 13-15 becomes “13 wins and 15 losses.”

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by KLSnow on Aug 28, 2009 1:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

how about "13 to 15"

or “between 13 and 15”

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 28, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Assuming teams continue on their current pace

I think it is more likely that the brewers finish 35-0 then everyone else finishing exactly as they currently are. even if you give everyone a 50-50 shot of finishing with the same winning percentage that’s a likelihood of .5^29, or .0000002% chance.

Ok, so the brewers chance of going 35-0 is about the same as everyone else’s winning percentage staying the same. i think you can probably throw that table out the window tomorrow, so the formatting is not going to matter much.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2009 1:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I know that's unlikely, that's why I said:

This obviously won’t happen but it gives us a basic starting point.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by KLSnow on Aug 28, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i was just showing off my math skills.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and your charm.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 28, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

i understand why you said that, and i forgive you.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is the basic starting point, right?

   Team   W   L    WPCT  GL
1   WSN   46  82  0.359  34
2   KCR   49  78  0.386  35
3   BAL   52  76  0.406  34
4   SDP   54  75  0.419  33
5   PIT   53  72  0.424  37
6   CIN   55  71  0.437  36
7   ARI   56  72  0.438  34
8   OAK   56  71  0.441  35
9   CLE   57  70  0.449  35
10  NYM   58  70  0.453  34
11  TOR   58  67  0.464  37
12  MIL   61  66  0.480  35
13  HOU   62  65  0.488  35
14  MIN   63  64  0.496  35
15  CHW   64  64  0.500  34
16  CHC   63  62  0.504  37
17  SEA   66  62  0.516  34
18  ATL   67  60  0.528  35
19  FLA   67  60  0.528  35
20  DET   67  59  0.532  36
21  SFG   69  59  0.539  34
22  TBR   69  57  0.548  36
23  COL   72  56  0.563  34
24  TEX   71  55  0.563  36
25  STL   74  55  0.574  33
26  BOS   73  54  0.575  35
27  PHI   73  52  0.584  37
28  LAD   76  52  0.594  34
29  LAA   75  51  0.595  36
30  NYY   79  48  0.622  35

I dont think your table adds any new information

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

...and the chance of brewers going 35-0 the rest of the way

is about .49^35, which is lower than .5^29

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 28, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

you’re right (that’s why i tried to sneak in the “about the same” comment, they’re both about zero.)

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Aug 28, 2009 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	83	78	.515	7.5	Lost 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	80	82	.493	11	Won 3
Cincinnati Red Reporter	78	84	.481	13	Won 2
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	74	88	.456	17	Lost 3
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	62	99	.385	28.5	Lost 2