Colome up, Swindle DFA'd
Via McCalvy:
The team purchased right-hander Jesus Colome's contract from Triple-A Nashville earlier in the day, less than two weeks after picking him up as a Minor League free agent. To clear a spot for Colome, 31, the Brewers designated R.J. Swindle for assignment.
almost 3 years ago
Kyle Lobner
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This the end of Swindle?
Will he ever get back to the majors besides the September roster expansion?
Has done nothing in the majors to show he deserves it
But has done plenty in the minors.
If anyone who has some pitch-f/x-fu happens to read this, I think we need an analysis of whether or not there’s something that makes Swindle scary-effective in the minors, and crap in the majors. It could easily be small sample size, but given he’s such an outlier (e.g., 55-mph curve), it makes me wonder if there’s something else at play here.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Let me guess, that’s the same kind of analysis you gave BAlfour when he was traded away. He sure worked out well for the Rays in pro ball.
Evaluating pitchers on less than 7 innings or so is a terrible way to make baseball decisions.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Don’t forget most of his work was simply to eat up innings in blow outs. It feels like he’s just being Yosted by the FO like Grant did.
Sooo...
Balfour was Yosted by being thrown into high-pressure situations too quickly, and Swindle by not being put into high-pressure situations? That’s somewhat confusing.
There's a reason we refer to Swindle as a lefty one-out guy
7, 5, 3, 7, 6, 9 total batters faced in his outings. That’s using him the exact opposite of how he should be used.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
But then, you're angry about us losing a guy with loogy as his *upside*?
Talk about misplaced priorities…
I think he is a damn good loogy at the major league level
To give him away is kinda foolish, especially when he’s in an option year and there’s an easy way to get him to AAA.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
But to play devil's advocate
His minor league performance suggests that he should be able to get righties out very well, too. He faced plenty of batters in AAA, and responded with a 2.65 FIP. The way I see it, either he is the player he was in AAA, and just got extremely unlucky in a small sample, or he’s, for some reason, a player whose skills just don’t translate to the big leagues. If it’s the former, you can’t really blame how he was used, because from what I understand, he was used similarly in AAA (e.g., IIRC he had a three-inning stint in one game)
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
FWIW...
quick’n’dirty combination of Swindle’s AAA splits from LeHigh last year and Nashville this year (SLG might be understated as Minor League Splits doesn’t list triples), plus MLE’s of same and his small-sample major league numbers:
vs. AAA-LHB: .150/.220/.168 (118 BF)
vs. MLE-LHB: .154/.246/.173
vs. MLB-LHB: .364/.462/.591 (26 BF)
vs. AAA-RHB: .254/.289/.335 (197 BF)
vs. MLE-RHB: .258/.305/.341
vs. MLB-RHB: .406/.457/.813 (35 BF)
Dramatic differences, of course, but indeed it’s not like he’s significantly more worse against one side of the plate at MLB.
If he keeps getting lit up as a Ray
I expect to see super hardcore stat-mining going on at Fangraphs and BtB.
And having typed that, I realize:
Yankees and Red Sox:ESPN::Rays and Mariners:Fangraphs/BtB
Funny how that works :-p.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
To be fair
He crammed a heck of a lot of batters faced into those innings.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Well, it's harder now.
Previously, I had been expecting him to be optioned down and called back up in September. Problem is, the Brewers also needed to clear a spot on the 40 man roster for Colome. Now that he’s off the 40, he’d have to be added again (and someone else DFA’d) to get a September callup, and I see that as unlikely.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
I’m not sure what that comment means… “Balfour-type future”.
Balfour had a very good season with the Rays last year, but this year has struggled. His strikeouts are down quite a bit and his ERA is up.
Swindle is a finesse pitcher who had great success in the minors, but not in the majors… not exactly something unusual. Could it be that the scouting is better in the majors, so hitters are better prepared to adjust to them? Could it be that Castro was unable to coach him… unlike Bosio?
Only time will tell. Maybe he’ll find success with the Rays or maybe it’ll be his last stop before he hangs it up.
I think he's more likely to follow the path of fellow ex-Brewer Joe Thatcher
Thatcher was always good in the minors, had a bad year in the majors, now is a decent lefty reliever.
Swindle just didn’t have the two good months in the majors before the bad year.
Then again, maybe Swindle will just keep on getting hit hard and will develop into a sabermetric Corey Patterson type – keeps getting chances despite not doing well because stat guys like what he brought in the minors.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
I think there's a good chance, but
It all depends on the scenario I outlined above. Either he needs to be given a chance and he’ll start producing like he did in the minors, or there really is something about the lefty/eephus pitch/etc. mold that just doesn’t translate to the major leagues.
Sadly, I think the former is more likely, but we’ll see.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Would I be way out of line to suggest that it's not quite such a safe assumption?
The occasionally bordering-on-silly Swindle hype around here notwithstanding – relief pitchers are getting DFA’ed every day, and most of the time they’re not picked up by anybody. And Swindle doesn’t hit any of the usual checkboxes – not an otherwise promising player DFA’ed due to a roster crunch, not an “all stuff, no control” guy who might become effective with some fine-tuning, not a guy who can immediately fill a team’s position of need (even IF you’re desperately looking for a loogy, Swindle’s not the guy you’re going to trial for that position). Sure, the AAA numbers are there, but August isn’t the time where people will pick you up for a 25-man spot based on that if you’ve put up such sucky numbers in the majors.
oh, wow...I thought SgtClueLs was just speculating above.
Those wacky Rays. How long ago was Swindle DFA’ed that the Rays’ waiver claim has already been granted? /head-scratcher
I wonder if Dixie had something to do with this one.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
I'd like to think so
There are a lot of very smart people in the front office. I envy Rays fans.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I think it's a compliment to the Brewers' FO, honestly
Arguably the most statistically savvy front office in the league thinks we pick up a lot of good players.
Of course, it’s maybe an insult that we keep giving them away…
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Dillon, Kapler and Gross are nothing more then bench/platoon players… and the Rays are using them that way.
Shouse is having a horrible season, and Balfour has come back to reality after having a great 2008 season.
Choate is having a good season, but he never threw a pitch for the Brewers thanks to injury problems.
Yeah, I agree that
the former Brewers the Rays have picked up really aren’t worth getting upset over, it just occurred to me while I was typing that maybe it isn’t best to describe, “Those are some great players you got there…now they’re ours!” as a compliment :-p
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
He was probably put on waivers two days ago
Wasn’t there a discussion once before about how you can put guys on waivers before you designate them? I forgot how that ended though.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
8 year olds dude
8 year olds
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
I AM SO ANGRY RIGHT NOW
ANGRY RANT FORTHCOMING BUT IT MIGHT NOT BE TODAY MAYBE TOMORROW BECAUSE I AM BUSY BUT AAAAAAAARGHHHHHHHH
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
is it really that big of a deal?
the dude got shelled in the majors, every time he’s been up. either it was just a small sample size (with horrific results,) he was used improperly (entirely possible, but what’s to say he’d ever be used properly,) or he just didn’t have it.
Carlos Corporan is on the 40-man roster right now
I don’t really mind him going down, I mind the Brewers screwing him over because he had a bad 6 2/3 innings in which he was used improperly. It’s just more my frustration with the front office overall with this symbolizing it than it being a terrible move to drop Swindle.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I don't complain about our FO. It could be way worse.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
But his minor league numbers are so good
Not just in terms of ERA, but in terms of controllable skills. He has a stupid high K:BB ratio (211:34), and he’s only ever given up 2 home runs, and none to lefties. That said, clearly he seems like a completely different pitcher in the major leagues. Almost no one seems that different between the minors and the majors, so it’s probably just a small sample size thing. That said, if anyone were to have that huge of a talent difference, I would expect it to be someone so unlike the average major leaguer. I’m very eager to see what happens with him in Tampa Bay.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
But isn't one of the main characteristics that...
distinguishes ML-capable batters from the rest a significantly better ability to make solid contact? I.e., captured in the idea that BABIP is a useful thing to know for analyzing ML players because everybody with bad on-contact skills has already been selected out before making the show, and so low BABIP in the majors is likely to be a sign of bad luck rather than bad skills? If so, I’d sure think it conceivable that a guy with Swindle’s rare and specialized skill set would do fine in the minors but get hit hard all over the place in the majors.
Well, but BABIP doesn't tell you much for pitchers
The reason Swindle excels in the minors is because of his controllable skills; he strikes tons of guys out, hardly walks anyone, and doesn’t give up homers. The only way major leaguers making solid contact would come into play there is if he’s suddenly giving up more homers ‘cause major leaguers hit harder, but even that doesn’t make much sense, ‘cause sustainable home run prevention skills are almost invariably linked to ground ball skills, and ground ball skills don’t really seem to change when facing better hitters. That said, again, Swindle is an outlier, so maybe there is something like that going on here.
To put it another way, as you say, it’s definitely conceivable that a guy like Swindle would do fine in the minors and get hit hard in the majors, but it’s really weird if it is the case.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
by Lefti on Aug 7, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Speaking of this
Does anyone know if gb/fb/ld numbers are available for Swindle in the minor leagues? They don’t have them on Fangraphs, and my minor-league research skills are essentially nil.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Well that's interesting
I didn’t realize that his minor league career HR/FB rate is 2.5%. That’s got to be unsustainable. (Granted, his Brewers major league HR/FB rate of 50% is also completely unsustainable, but still). I figured that his low home run rate was a result of being a groundball machine, but he actually gives up grounders and fly balls at the same rate. Maybe there is something about his pitching that makes minor leaguers more susceptible to not be able to hit him out of the park…I don’t know why that would be, but I think that might explain something.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
He pitches slower than BP
I would think that’s gotta contribute to it
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Totally, but
Why does that stymie minor leaguers and entice major leaguers? Obviously major leaguers are better, but it’s rarely that huge of a talent gap.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
FWIW, I didn't mean to imply that Swindle's BABIP is the one at issue here.
And by solid contact I don’t only mean harder contact, but also the ability to make some contact at all rather than whiff altogether. (Which for a 50-odd mph pitch may be all that’s needed…) What I’m trying to get at is that Swindle’s “controllable” skills may be exploiting exactly what minor league batters are most deficient in compared to major league batters, and thus the qualitative difference of opposition between MLB and AAA would be amplified for Swindle in a way that generic MLEs are unable to capture.
I see
That seems unlikely, but at the same time, I get the feeling that Swindle just doesn’t fit into the usual molds of analysis that we use.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
It's a valid theory
but impossible to really conclude after 11 1/3 career innings.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
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