Monday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Sep 14, 2009 9:58 AM CDT
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while getting the perfect shot.
The Brewers finished off a sweep in Arizona with something that's been increasingly unlikely lately: a Sunday day game victory. The Brewers actually gained three games on the Cardinals this weekend, as they were swept in Atlanta while the Brewers were in Arizona. If that had happened a month ago, it'd be relevant.
The Brewers also recorded several milestones over the weekend: Ryan Braun picked up his 100th home run and Felipe Lopez collected his 1000th hit on Friday, and on Saturday Prince Fielder's solo home run tied Cecil Cooper's franchise record with 126 RBI. Several notes on Fielder today:
- Keith Law doesn't like the Brewers' 2010 chances, and thinks they should trade Fielder this offseason and make an effort to rebuild.
- Casa de Machado thinks Fielder will only hold the franchise RBI record until Ryan Braun hits 158 next year.
- Since Fielder plays and bats fourth every day, he's singlehandedly responsible for the fact that the Brewers have received more production from the cleanup spot than any other team in baseball.
Casey McGehee also had a pretty good weekend. He reached base nine times over three days, and his 4-for-5, two home run performance Friday night tied a rookie franchise record with 6 RBI. I've been accused of loving McGehee since long before it was cool to do so, but I still hope he's building his trade value for the offseason, and not cementing himself at third base for the 2010 Brewers.
Trevor Hoffman said over the weekend that he's hoping to return to the Brewers next season, meaning he would likely record his 600th career save as a Brewer. Hoffman's been a pretty bright spot for the Crew this season and I'd welcome him back, as long as the Brewers don't have to go significantly over his $6 million 2009 salary.
Again, if you're trying to decide on a particular method for evaluating hitters, Jason Kendall is an excellent "smell test." Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases attempted to identify 2009's least valuable hitters, and Jason Kendall checked in at ninth.
In the minors:
- The Brewer minor league season officially concluded yesterday, as the Huntsville Stars lost to Tennessee, and were eliminated 3-1 in the Southern League playoffs. The Stars went just 1-12 in their final 13 games.
- The Brewers are going to spend some time this winter considering alternative methods of developing young pitchers. Gord Ash said the team is planning on holding a pitching symposium this winter with pitching coaches from all of the minor league affiliates to consider new ideas.
- The Brevard County Manatees had the best season of any Brewer minor league affiliate, and they also swept the Brewer postseason awards, with Amaury Rivas and Logan Schafer winnning the Robin Yount Performance Awards given annually to the club's top minor leaguers (FanShot). The award is, of course, named after a player who
never playedappeared in just 64 games in the minors. - Brett Lawrie and the other Brewer minor leaguers playing for Team Canada in the Baseball World Cup suffered their first setback yesterday, as they were held to just one hit and shut out by team USA. Former Brewer R.J. Swindle is also a member of Team Canada, for whatever that's worth.
- Prospects Paradise did a hypothetical 2009 draft, selecting as the Angels, and drafted two players who ended up getting drafted by the Brewers in the real draft: Del Howell (Brewers drafted in the 15th round) and Brandon Sizemore (drafted in the 30th round).
The Brewers held steady at #19 in Baseball Digest Daily's ASTRO Rankings.
Just one roster note around baseball today:
Mariners: Released reliever Stephen Kahn.
Sometimes a player comes along and puts everything in perspective. Take Miguel Olivo, for example. As Driveline Mechanics notes, he nearly never walks, swings and misses at 45% of pitches outside the zone, and as a batter, he's still much more valuable than Jason Kendall.
Here's another potential replacement to consider: Brian Schneider doesn't expect to return to the Mets next season.
I'm not sure which of these stories is stranger: A man arrested in Arizona for impersonating journeyman reliever Kiko Calero or Jeff Francoeur offering to trade his talent for a career as a country singer.
Here's an interesting note from the weekend: Will Carroll cited health as the best predictor of success, noting that seven teams will finish the season with at least six players with 500 plate appearances, and six of them are playoff bound. The Brewers narrowly miss the cut, with five players on pace and Craig Counsell and Corey Hart just below.
Meanwhile, the Yankees are on pace to become just the third team ever with seven players with 400+ PA and OPS+ over 120. The two previous teams to do it were the 1993 Tigers and 1978 Brewers. Both teams missed the playoffs.
Here's a cool idea I wish the Brewers would replicate: The Astros held a Fan Recipe Cook Off on Saturday, with the winner getting their recipe served at the ballpark next season. I'd love to compete in a contest like that. Or judge a contest like that.
On this day in 1975, the Brewers lost to the Red Sox 8-6, but the story of the day was Robin Yount, who went 1-for-5 while appearing in his 242nd game before his 20th birthday, setting a new major league record.
On this day in 1977, Ken McMullen, pinch hitting for Jim Gantner, homered in his final major league at bat as the Brewers beat the Mariners, 8-5. And in 1991, Cecil Fielder hit a home run out of County Stadium.
Happy birthday today to Joe Winkelsas, who appeared in seven games for the 2006 Brewers and turns 36.
That's all I've got today, unless you'd like to hear more about my new cell phone cover.
Drink up.
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Last nite it came to me
The team should start selling spots as ‘Vargas Runners’ for next season. The team has three fans dress in the opposing team’s uniform and simulate a bases loaded situation whenever Vargas enters a game. Increased revenues, a truly unique fan experience and Claudio has 0.00 WHIP for the season. I don’t see a downside.
by Getting Yosted on Sep 14, 2009 10:15 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Yount
Did play one season in the minors.
by Infield Fly Rule on Sep 14, 2009 10:45 AM CDT reply actions
Fixed
Thanks
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by Kyle Lobner on Sep 14, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions
BP
Has an article from last Friday talking about FA pitchers available.
Wonder if the Brewers would offere a “Suppan-like” deal to John Lackey, and whether he would take it. At least this time around there would be a history validating the offer, and a much higher expected return.
He’d look pretty nice in that #2 spot in the rotation.
article on lackey from a few days ago
Dave Cameron at fangraphs (and USS Mariner) thinks Lackey is just fine.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
While I'd love to see Lackey in a Brewers uni
It isn’t going to happen. He’ll be seeking more than they’re willing to pay in years and $$. I think the Angels would be willing to pay him as much as the Brewers can afford. They’ll both get outbid by somebody, since Lackey’s about the only legit #1 starter on the market this off-season.
Why is Will Carrol even looked at as an expert any more?
Good teams have good players that play a lot, and backups that play little. Bad teams might decide a guy sucks halfway through the year and play someone else. Maybe health is the predictor, but that’s a terrible way to measure it.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
yeah
First off, it’s not a “predictor,” it’s something that correlates. You couldn’t use health to predict team success in advance, though I suppose if you had good enough predictions of healthiness (like will’s red/green lights) you could do a prediction-once-removed.
Other than that, yes, Jordan is right. Generally the players who have 500+ PA are good. There are plenty of exceptions, both bad players who get that many PA and good players who don’t, but odds are, if you have six players with that many, you have at least four or five good, healthy players.
So basically: Teams with lots of good, healthy players tend to win. Quick – I hope somebody tells Melvin about this!
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 14, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions
I wonder why he used the phrase
“is health the best predictor of success?” Even the concept just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
exactly
you can’t exactly predict something based off of something that, itself, cannot be predicted.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
New playoff predictor
If you look at the teams that are in first place at the end of the season. You can predict which teams make the playoffs
by Junked on Sep 14, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
i think maddon said something like
“The team with the most points at the end of the day….[trailing off] That team with the points is your winner. Unless you’re the loser, but then you’re not the winner.”
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 14, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Is PA really the best proxy for "health"?
Wouldn’t total time that teams players spent on the DL be a better proxy for a “health” variable, since individual skill (simply, is that player good), relative skill (do we have someone better), platoons, and any number of factors (statistically unfounded managerial love/hatred for a given player…COUGH GAMEL COUGH) can determine total PA in a season.
not necessarily
I know that Justin Morneau, Joe Crede and Josh Hamilton have missed time this year without going on the DL for it. I think Denard Span may be included in that, but his DL stint may have been retroactive.
Also in the cases of Morneau and Span, health doesn’t mean “injuries”—both of them had inner ear infections.
(not saying that Carroll is right, mind you; health may be an indicator, but it sure as heck isn’t a “predictor”)
DL time is about as good as you'll get
but you’re right, it isn’t perfect.
Ultimately though, it’s impossible to separate health from performance. Every year, there are guys who get 600 PA but played through some or all of that in pain … are they having a down year because of bad luck, age, or health?
Also, one of Will’s better observations is that “health is a skill.” Of course you’ll have freak injuries like Gallardo’s last year, but some guys are a lot better at staying healthy than others.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 14, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I would call it an ability before I would call it a skill
I feel like a skill can be practiced, while an ability is more of a given-from-birth type of deal. Then again, those are both pretty arbitrary.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
health is not just something you're born with
a lot of guys with recurring injury problems have them because they don’t take sufficiently good care of themselves and/or manage previous injuries.
It’s tough for us to know who, because we don’t have every player’s workout logs, but to take just one example, it was clear that the Brewers weren’t thrilled with Sheets’s offseason workout plan. On the flip side, Ichiro is known to be fanatical about that sort of thing, and he hardly ever misses time.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 14, 2009 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions
He nearly threw everything out of wack when he ate 2 ice creams.
But I have to disagree to an extent. Certain people just have tougher frames. Can you build your body to be healthier? Yes. But I believe that the room for improvement is pretty limited. Just as some people have stronger immune systems, some people have stronger bones and joints.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
So can we call it an ability *and* a skill, then?
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
Undersampling
I should clarify what I was trying to say.
Logical Statement:
If a player receives 500 PA in a year, there is a high probability he is skilled and healthy.
I agree with this statement, however I see problems with making any further distinctions.
“If a player receives less than 500 PA in a year, he is probably bad, or not healthy.”
Last year Jayson Werth had 482 PA, primarily due to a platoon IIRC. However he hit 24 HR, had 20 SB, and a line of .273/.363/.498
He was good, healthy (I think), and undoubtedly was a huge part of the Phillies’ success.
Then you get into the issue of the free agent clock, where prospects don’t get called up until mid-year for business reasons, and therefore don’t get 500 PA.
PA, particularly using a cutoff (why 500, what about 450, or 400, etc.) is a weak proxy for health. Additionally, as has already been mentioned there is the danger of co-correlation, with skilled ballplayers being significantly more likely to make the PA cutoff. OPS+ or some other measure should be used in order to get a better look at the true predictive power of “Players getting X PA” in teams making the playoffs.
Additionally, PA is pretty much the WORST possible predictor of Pitcher’s health. The brewers have had a lot of pitchers on the DL, and the DBacks losing Brandon Webb for the season dramatically changed their team.
My formula for the regression…
Total number of wins = a + b * (Some metric that weights players contribution, such as predicted OPS+ or WAR) * (player’s time on DL).
The weight, because losing Brandon Webb for even 15 days is a lot different than losing Jeff Suppan for 15 days. Predicted, because obviously if they’re injured we can’t keep use their actual stats. Each one would be averaged over the whole team, but that would still give you an overall idea of how much damage was done to their season by injuries.
Sigh…take a couple of classes on econometrics and linear regressions and spend the rest of your life debating about their use. It’s a curse.
semi-thinky thots on pitching
as one pitcher gets broken, another gets fixed: McClung may be activated on Friday, but I will do the believing when I do the seeing.
I shouldn’t be spreading my arguments all over this blog network, but the note on Yount made me think of it all over again. What is too small of a sample size over one season to determine if a recently drafted pitcher is ready for the major leagues or not? Relatedly, is there really such a thing as being “rushed?” (Friend of mine complains about this in regards to Craig Hansen and Clay Buchholz a lot)
Rushed
Yes, I think there are cases where a player would be more successful if given more time to develop (either in the minors or college). There are many players who people think were “rushed” into the majors (including Weeks), while there are other players that need minimal time and are ready to play MLB ball (e.g. Yount, Pujols, Upton, Gooden).
I don’t think anyone knows when the “right time” is.
Wrigley this week
Some ridiculous deals available on StubHub for anyone in Chicago who wants to see the games. You can get Upper Deck tickets for as low as $1.50 each. We ended up getting seats in Section 131 (behind the Brewers’ dugout) for $30/each.
Tweeted this earlier.
UPDATE: I have just sold my rights to the MIller Park Drunk site. The new editors will be posting shortly. I will maintain this twitter.
yep
his awesome guest columnist will be the original owner, who will hijack the site and things will magically return to “normal”
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 14, 2009 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions
You didn't laugh at all?
Naming the new owner “Chad,” talking about his prized, autographed Sosa jersey, Chad buying the site for a Playboy featuring Sable from WWF … I thought it was pretty good.
Not really...
but then again, it’s obvious it’s a joke. Probably something to drum up traffic since the Packers’ season has started and the Brewers’ season is just about over.
Yeah
I wasn’t really all that amused either.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
Chad? Sable? Sosa?
is there a connection here that I’m missing?
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 14, 2009 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions
2B Felipe Lopez
SS Craig Counsell
3B Casey McGehee
1B Prince Fielder
CF Mike Cameron
RF Jody Gerut
C Jason Kendall
LF Frank Catalanotto
P Jeff Suppan
Isn't Dempster the one that gave up the homer
when Braun airplaned around 1st base?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Brandon Webb may be available on the market
it’s a slim shot, but it was reported at MLBTR, so there’s something…
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
If true...
…That has to say something about his injury progress.
If true, it’s certainly good news for the Brewers,as he would draw interest away from other pitchers we could go after. I’m a HUGE Brandon Webb fan, so I’d love to see him in a Brewers uniform, but idk if he’s the guy we should break the bank for.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Cecil Fielder's HR
I was at the Stadium covering the game when Fielder hit his HR. It just may be my most memorable moment of my 20 years covering big league baseball.
It was a Saturday night, fan appreciation night, so it was a bigger crowd than usual for a late September game. When Fielder launched his shot I said to Gregg Hoffmann, my colleague to the left, I think that might get over the bleachers. Well it did, I can still see the ball leaving the stadium just to the left of the B section sign in the bleachers.
The crowd was initially stunned, but as Fielder approached third base on his home run waddle the crowd began to realize what happened and gave him a rousing ovation.
Dan Plesac gave up the HR and after the game had this quote, " I haven’t been hit that hard since I took a $20 bill out of my dad’s wallet.
by statsllc on Sep 14, 2009 5:48 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
It's been a while
Since I heard tell of the Good King Winkelsas! Happy birthday indeed!
C. Magruder scored, R. Weeks to second on balk
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Chicago
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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