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Around SBN: Africa Cup Of Nations Semifinal: Black Stars Ripe For Upset?

Monday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while getting your vitamins and minerals.

Yovani Gallardo came into yesterday's game saying he was still feeling strong and he showed it on the mound, needing just 77 pitches to complete five innings and pick up his 13th victory in his final start of the season. Gallardo says he will accept the role as ace of the Brewers' staff next season, when he will still be just 24 years old.

Perhaps Trevor Hoffman will still be closing out Gallardo's wins in 2010. A few days after Hoffman said he'd like to remain a Brewer, Doug Melvin confirmed his interest as well. Perhaps the two sides will work something out soon.

Hoffman is still projected to be a Type A free agent in the most recent Elias Rankings, as is Felipe Lopez. Here's something I don't think we've discussed before: David Weathers projects to be a Type B free agent. It probably doesn't matter, though, as the Brewers would have to decline his option and offer him arbitration to receive any compensation for him. Weathers is making $3.9 million this season, and likely won't receive much less than that in arbitration.

Speaking of free agents, Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases is ranking the 111 free agents-to-be this offseason, and Jason Kendall checks in at #109. David Weathers and Craig Counsell are ranked 86 and 85, respectively.

It was a big weekend for Prince Fielder, who picked up his franchise record 127th RBI on Saturday night, and followed it up with his 40th home run and 100th walk on Sunday. The entire team was on the field for a ceremony honoring Fielder before yesterday's game, as was Astros manager and previous record holder Cecil Cooper.

Seth McClung has been activated from the DL but has yet to appear in a game. In the meantime, he's been passing the time on Twitter (FanShot). He's only been active for a few days, but he's already posted his thoughts on waiting to get into games, nicknames, Prince Fielder, Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey's contract incentives, the fans in Milwaukee, living with dyslexia, fantasy football, and this site. He's already much better with Twitter than Nick Barnett.

We might see McClung tonight, but we won't see Milton Bradley. The Cubs suspended Bradley for the remainder of the season for conduct detrimental to the team after he told a reporter "you understand why they haven’t won in 100 years here." Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald says the Cubs feel like a great weight has been lifted off their shoulders.

I looked at these numbers yesterday and can't decide if they're worth anything: maybe you can help me. Yovani Gallardo and Jeff Suppan are among the bottom ten in baseball in percentage of two-strike pitches fouled off. Any thoughts on how/why that happens?

In the minors:

  • The future of baseball in Huntsville remains in question, but Mark McCarter of the Huntsville Times asked some tough questions of Stars GM Buck Rogers in an attempt to shed some light on it. The interview gives a nice feel of the challenges facing the Stars and the small staff they have facing them. (h/t Rattler Radio)
  • Caleb Gindl may have vaulted into the upper echelon of Brewer prospects this season, but hopefully he learned something as well. Gindl missed Brevard County's brief playoff appearance with a broken hand, and it was recently revealed that the broken hand was sustained punching a door in frustration after grounding into a double play.

Since moving on with the Mariners, Bill Hall has hit just .221/.262/.379, and now he's starting to draw negative attention from people you don't want to draw it from: U.S.S. Mariner called out Hall for a lack of effort on a fly ball over the weekend.

From a past bad contract to a potential future one: Joel Pineiro is one of the free agent pitchers the Brewers may look into this offseason, but Jorge Says No! thinks he'll get a four year/$40 million deal, which is an awful lot to commit to a guy who's had one good season in his last five tries.

You probably didn't need a reason to be depressed on a Monday morning, but if you did, here's one: MLB Playoff Odds has released their most recent projections, and they give the Yankees and Red Sox a combined 51.2% chance of winning the World Series. Once the Brewers are eliminated and the playoffs begin, I'll be rooting for everyone else.

If that didn't depress you, perhaps your surprising lack of baseball knowledge will. It was pretty early this morning (and before caffeine) when I took this quiz, but I was still only able to name five of the 25 MLB win leaders by last initial. And, after seeing the results, I wouldn't have gotten several of them even if I'd had all day.

Zack Greinke isn't on that list but, as Joe Posnanski notes, he's on a better one: He's one of just nine pitchers in MLB history to pitch 200 innings with an ERA+ over 200 and 200 strikeouts. He's in incredibly elite company in that club.

The Reds have a nice group of young pitchers, and a manager with a reputation for ruining them. So how is it possible that Homer Bailey wants to pitch more? That one blew my mind.

Today we have another sad reminder that, no matter how excited you are about a prospect, and no matter how "can't miss" he is, something can always go wrong. Giants prospect Angel Villalona is a suspect in a murder in the Dominican Republic. Villalona is 19 years old and was given a $2.1 million signing bonus in 2007.

On this day in 1998, Jason Kendall stole his 26th base, setting a new National League record for catchers. The Pirates lost anyway, 8-1 to the Giants.

What do you give the man who could have had everything but smoked it all away? Today is Jeremy Jeffress' 22nd birthday. Also, happy birthday to Doug Davis, who seems like he should be much older than 34.

Oh, and maybe MS Word knows something the Royals don't.

Drink up.

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Re: Weathers

I thought that if the team declines the option, they can’t offer arbitration. I thought there was conversation about this with another Brewer in the same situation (Looper?) earlier in the season.

by NoahJ on Sep 21, 2009 9:54 AM CDT reply actions  

I think you can decline an option and offer Arbys...

not 100% sure — but reasonably sure

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Sep 21, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

I believe the conversation did take place about a month ago

And I believe that was the conclusion.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

That's correct

The Brewers faced a similar situation with Mike Cameron last season. They could have declined his option, but would have had to offer him arbitration (and a potential raise over $10 million) to get compensated for him.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Sep 21, 2009 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions  

Also, I took the sporcle quiz a few days ago.

I think that I only got four of them. I’m ashamed to say I hadn’t even heard of most of them.

by NoahJ on Sep 21, 2009 9:57 AM CDT reply actions  

I got 5 of them

but one was by mistake. I didn’t realize that it was by initial, so I figured Randy Johnson would be on it. Walter Johnson came up. I knew he was good, but can never think of him unless I see his name. I’m disappointed I didn’t get Eck. It was funny to see Izzy on there, too!

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

looks like I'm the current BCB leader in the clubhouse

with 7

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Sep 21, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

yep, that would be a dick move

at risk of giving something away, There aren’t many that have pitched in the RotoSheet era. That would be post ’54 for everyone else

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Sep 21, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions  

10 for me too

When I was in junior high and a big baseball history dork, I probably would’ve done better … now there are only a few I’m surprised I didn’t get.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 21, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

I got twelve

Yay Eddie Plank and Tom Zachary

You know me Al.

by TheJay on Sep 21, 2009 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

I suppose I gave 3 of them away...

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

2 strie fouls

I can’t speak on Suppan, but I’ve noticed Yovani do this throughout the season. When he has 2 strikes, he beats around the strike zone and tries to get the batter to chase a bad pitch. I’ve seen him run many 0-2 counts up to 3-2. It’s tough to foul off a pitch when you don’t swing at it.

Maybe somebody with more time can check out gameday or pitch fx data and see if that’s really the case, or just something I’ve noticed.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 10:02 AM CDT reply actions  

That makes sense...

particularly since his PC got so high by the 5th inning in most of his games this season.

by sjlee on Sep 21, 2009 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

I've noticed it too

And hopefully it’s something he’ll figure out soon. Getting ahead of batters is good, but futzing around and running up your pitch count is not.

by Brew Angel on Sep 21, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think your boy, Scott Kazmir, had a similar problem when he was coming up in the minors.

He said the resolution had to do with learning ot pitch to contact, and that you don’t have to get a strikeout every single time.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

conversely

200 Ks is all the more impressive, considering he only goes 5-6 innings per game. I think it’d be interesting to look at K/AB ratios among starters.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Top 10 in Strikeouts Per Batters Faced for starters with >25 starts

K/BF BF/K Name
0.290 3.445 Tim Lincecum
0.281 3.561 Rich Harden
0.275 3.641 Justin Verlander
0.272 3.671 Javier Vazquez
0.268 3.737 Zack Greinke
0.267 3.740 Jon Lester
0.257 3.887 Yovani Gallardo
0.255 3.916 Clayton Kershaw
0.251 3.981 Jonathan Sanchez
0.244 4.101 Danny Haren

0.2438 Danny Haren

by Mykenk on Sep 21, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Interestingly (maybe not)

There’s almost no correlation among starters between K’s per BF and BB per BF.

by Mykenk on Sep 21, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wow

For batters, strikeouts are arguably no less productive than any other given out, right?

Some pitchers on that list however, are amongst some of the best in baseball. Are strikeouts just a proxy for pitching talent? So it’s not the K’s so much as the stuff it takes to get the K’s in the first place?

by ecocd on Sep 21, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

“For batters, strikeouts are arguably no less productive than any other given out, right?”

What about sacrifices?

by sjlee on Sep 21, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's situational

Ignoring Sac bunts, because the batter isn’t trying to get a hit in that case, the strikeout is rarely any worse than any other kind of out.

I won’t go through all of it here, but take all of the situations in which a runner could advance a base. Then go through what happens on a ground out or fly out. Making a “productive out” isn’t nearly as common as one would think. Sprinkle in the possibility of double plays and on average, strikeouts don’t really have a worse impact than an out from a ball put into play.

by ecocd on Sep 21, 2009 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

It is indeed something of a proxy.

Look at it this way…to get a strike out the batter has to accumulate two strikes, and then not swing at a strike, or else swing and miss.

To accumulate two strikes, the pitcher has to be putting pitches around the strike zone to either get the call or the swing, so in one sense strikeouts are correlated with “control” (weakly though, I know).

Once the batter has two strikes, the pitcher has to get a batter to take a strike or swing and miss (not counting bunts foul). This requires either having stuff so filthy it looks like a ball until it’s too late, stuff the batter can’t successfully hit, or the ability to mess with the batter’s head.

So basically the “pitcher characteristics” in order of importance I would correlate with Ks are: stuff, control, and intelligence (setting the batter up for a given strikeout pitch).

by Yar Nivek on Sep 21, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly!

I love it when it clicks for people!

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Sep 21, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good call on Gallardo's balls thrown after 2 strikes

Gallardo has thrown 354 balls to batters after 2 strikes, which ranks 2nd in the majors, behind only Justin Verlander (365). So you’re right – he’s not letting batters waste pitches by fouling them off, he’s wasting them on his own by throwing balls instead of challenging a batter with 2 strikes.

Suppan, on the other hand, has avoided giving up 2-strike fouls by avoiding 2-strike counts. Only 40.6% of the batters he faces get to 2 strikes this year, which is 15th lowest among guys who have faced 300 batters or more. For comparison, Gallardo gets 2 or more strikes on 52.6% of the batters he faces, which is 25th highest.

by plunkeveryone on Sep 21, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

“he’s wasting them on his own by throwing balls instead of challenging a batter with 2 strikes.”

I’m fine with a pitcher throwing a ball after getting ahead with 2 strikes, but only if that pitch occasionally gets the batter to swing at it. Seems to me that Gallardo’s third pitch is usually so far out of the strikezone that batters are laying off.

Now, is this Gallardo’s or Kendall’s fault?

by sjlee on Sep 21, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'd like to say Kendall

but it’s happned when both he and Rivera were catching, and it doesn’t happen when other pitchers are pitching.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

On Suppan

The stat says that a lowpercentage of his 2 strike pitches are followed off. So it doesn’t matter how many counts are worked to 2 strikes, as we are throwing all other pitches out.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

No...

the stat listed on the plunkeveryone site is 2 strike fouls as a percentage of total pitches thrown. Or, pitches that don’t get counted in the ball-strike count as a percentage of pitches that get counted in the total pitch count, or the amount a pitcher gets his pitchcount inflated just because he lets batters foul off a lot of pitches. (I’m fairly certain of this because I write the site that the link connects too)

by plunkeveryone on Sep 21, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think I'll wait for a more reliable source

I interpreted

percentage of two-strike pitches fouled off.
wrong. Sorry about that. I’m going to follow the link and give you some hits… After I wipe the pie off my face, of course.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

I figured that was probably it

I have a lot of trouble with readers confusing my really obscure stats with other really obscure stats – or even slightly less obscure stats. It’s a major hazard of the really obscure stats field!

by plunkeveryone on Sep 22, 2009 5:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

Incorrect Arby statement

Weathers is making $3.9 million this season, so the least he could receive in arbitration is $3.12 million (80% of the previous season’s salary), and the Brewers probably shouldn’t be spending that much on him.

This is not true — The Brewers can submit any offer to Weathers in the Arby process — The 80% rule only applies to dudes that have never been FA’s — like JJ, Hart, Yo, etc…

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Sep 21, 2009 10:09 AM CDT reply actions  

On this day in 1998, Jason Kendall stole his 26th base, setting a new major league record for catchers.

This is incorrect as well — John Wathan stole 36 in 1982 as a Royal… Kendall may hold the NL record.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Sep 21, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

Im a big jerk

by the way.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Sep 21, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

yeah, you are

but good pull on facts

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Sep 21, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

your avatar cracks me up

by the way

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Sep 21, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

Both fixed

Thanks for the corrections.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Sep 21, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

No Problem

I do agree that Weathers is unlikely to get a paycut…

If Topps thinks it’s important, I think it is important.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Sep 21, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

So what's to keep the Brewers from offering $1MM

Weathers denying it, and signing elsewhere, and us getting a draft pick?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

Thats not how it works

Here is how Arbys works in a nutshell….

1.) Both parties agree to the process
2.) Both parties submit a salary amount to the Arbynator.
3.) The Arbynator then chooses one side or the other.

Weather’s does not have a chance to decline the Brewers Arby offer — once he accepts the process, he has to take what the Brewers offer him, or what he submitted.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Sep 21, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

wait...i don't think arby is an either-or situation

doesn’t the arbitrator decide what middle ground is appropriate based on the offers on the table as well as the going rates for others of that skill set?

by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 21, 2009 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

No

Usually each side finds out the other’s number, and they agree to a figure somewhere in between. If it actually goes to the hearing it’s one or the other.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Sep 21, 2009 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Nope... at least not in MLB.

Both sides submit a number, and the arbiter picks one of them.

by sjlee on Sep 21, 2009 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

BTW

I just noticed our 5 game winning streak… is that close to a season high?

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Sep 21, 2009 10:53 AM CDT reply actions  

Close...

They had a 7 game winning streak from May 12-19.

by sjlee on Sep 21, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

Bruce Miles

“Bradley was being disingenuous when he sold himself to the Cubs last winter.”

Yeah, and Chicago saw the sun rise over Lake Michigan, too.

You know me Al.

by TheJay on Sep 21, 2009 10:55 AM CDT reply actions  

Unless Milton Bradley spoke the words "I will behave myself and be a role-model for the children. I'm a changed man!"

Then I have to think he didn’t say anything he didn’t believe. I fault the Cubs for thinking things would be different this time. Or more likely, assuming nothing had changed, but that it wouldn’t be that big of a deal.

by Yar Nivek on Sep 21, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

"A great weight has been lifted off their shoulders"

And hooked around their ankle until his contract runs out. Multi-year deal to somebody not worth it? Enjoy eating that salary, Cubbies. Mmmm…. Tastes like Soup!

by Brew Angel on Sep 21, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

The only things that are on the top of Canada...

Are the French, snow, and Moose poop

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Sep 21, 2009 11:02 AM CDT reply actions  

speaking of moose poop

I think I ran over some bear crap on my way into campus this morning on my bike, not 100 yards from my apartment. I shit you not.

by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 21, 2009 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

"bear crap"... "I shit you not"

Was that a clever pun?

Also, how often do you come in contact with bear crap that you can tell it from another animal’s crap?

"my goodness"

by BrewHaHeather on Sep 21, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe he caught the bear in the act

You never know what’s going to happen when Pags is around

Your values is in disarray, prioritizin' horribly
Unhappy with the riches 'cause you're piss-poor morally
Ignorin' all prior advice and forewarnin'
And we mighty full of ourselves all of a sudden, aren’t we?

by kirbir on Sep 21, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

and ewwww...

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Sep 21, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Dude --

What the hell campus are you going to that has bear shit on it?

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Sep 21, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Penn State

Live next to a large park where they allow gun hunting during the appropriate season. A bit over 3 miles from campus.

by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 21, 2009 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

He is a faker by the way

So sad

Your values is in disarray, prioritizin' horribly
Unhappy with the riches 'cause you're piss-poor morally
Ignorin' all prior advice and forewarnin'
And we mighty full of ourselves all of a sudden, aren’t we?

by kirbir on Sep 21, 2009 6:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

it was an intentional not-clever pun, yes

It seems the most likely animal based on the size and general shape. I know what a bunch of animal crap looks like, and the contrasts between carnivores and omnivores. Thanks mom.

I admit, I went past it fairly quickly, being on a bike and all, so maybe my first impression was mistaken.

by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 21, 2009 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

If you feed your dog cheap dog food with a lot of filler

their body doesn’t accept the filler..

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

quite possibly

but that would have to be both the largest dog on record as well as the largest single-day output of fecal matter I’ve yet witnessed from a dog.

I haven’t seen any St. Bernards around.

by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 21, 2009 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Horse?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Sep 21, 2009 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

The walk of shame was just too scary?

Your values is in disarray, prioritizin' horribly
Unhappy with the riches 'cause you're piss-poor morally
Ignorin' all prior advice and forewarnin'
And we mighty full of ourselves all of a sudden, aren’t we?

by kirbir on Sep 21, 2009 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Heh, don't make fun...

I had a housemate in college who had to go on his way back from the bar, so he just dropped his pants and squatted on the sidewalk. Luckily I wasn’t around when he did it, but I heard about it from my other housemates.

by sjlee on Sep 21, 2009 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hi Seth.

That is all

Imagine the Brewers offense without Bill Hall. Wait. What?

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Sep 21, 2009 5:01 PM CDT reply actions  

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