Game Thread #153: Phillies (88-63) at Brewers (75-77)
by Kyle Lobner on Sep 24, 2009 6:00 PM CDT
in Game Threads
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PrintPhiladelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, Sep 24, 2009 7:05 PM CDT
Current Series
4 game series vs Phillies @ Miller Park
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Philadelphia Phillies Thursday, Sep 24, 2009, 7:05 PM CDT Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70. |
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| Fri 09/25 | 7:05 PM CDT | |
| Sat 09/26 | 6:05 PM CDT | |
| Sun 09/27 | 1:05 PM CDT | |
If you want to shed a tear for the end of the 2009 season, here's one of several upcoming opportunities: Tonight is the start of the final home series of the season at Miller Park.
Follow the jump for tonight's pitching matchup, lineup and conversation on tonight's game!
J.A. Happ (10-4, 2.77) will likely be near the top of the list when Rookie of the Year voting comes out after the season, and deservedly so: He's posted a sub-3 ERA, a sub 1.2 WHIP, and 6+ strikeouts per nine innings this season, with three complete games and two shutouts in just 20 starts. With that said, tonight will be just his third start in September, and he only went three innings last time out, throwing 51 pitches and allowing an earned run on five hits. Prior to that, he had averaged 113 pitches per start in each of his last six appearances. In fact, he threw 100 pitches or more in 15 of his 16 starts in June, July and August.
Jeff Suppan (7-10, 4.76) will likely finish the season with single digit wins for the first time since 2002 and only the second time in his last eleven seasons. He's been pretty good lately, posting a 2.35 ERA in his last five starts, and he struck out a season high seven batters last time out. With that said, the Phillies aren't a very good matchup for him: Of the eight Phillies that have faced him at least ten times, three (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Eric Bruntlett) have OPS'ed over 1.000, and Jimmy Rollins is also over .900.
If the Brewers played Opening Day all over again, this is probably what their starting lineup would like: (h/t JS)
2B Felipe Lopez
RF Corey Hart
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
3B Casey McGehee
CF Mike Cameron
SS Alcides Escobar
C Jason Kendall
RHP Jeff Suppan
And in the bullpen:
Claudio Vargas pitched one inning (5 pitches) last night, and also pitched on Tuesday.
Todd Coffey pitched .1 innings (11 pitches) last night, and also pitched on Tuesday.
David Weathers pitched one inning (19 pitches) last night.
Trevor Hoffman pitched one inning (14 pitches) last night.
John Axford pitched .2 innings (5 pitches) Tuesday.
Chris Smith pitched 2.2 innings (42 pitches) Tuesday.
Mike Burns pitched two innings (28 pitches) Tuesday.
Josh Butler has not pitched since Monday.
Seth McClung has not pitched since Monday.
Mitch Stetter has not pitched since Monday.
Carlos Villanueva has not pitched since Sunday.
Enjoy the game!
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So I was perusing Fielder's numbers this year and while doing so...
… and I carried away for a moment by the fact that Prince is gaining on Pujols league leading total of HRs, and the fact that Fielder is leading the league in RBI’s, and I started to think that maybe Prince really should be the NL MVP in 2009.
Then I looked at Pujols numbers in comparison and… well holy shit. But if Prince doesn’t finish 2nd I’m gonna be pissed.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 24, 2009 6:29 PM CDT reply actions
I would think he should finish 2nd...
but with all the talk of Jeter being in the running for AL MVP over Mauer, who knows?
by Braunstalker on Sep 24, 2009 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Hanley Ramirez will probably finish 2nd for playing short and being the only guy to hit better than Pujols
You know me Al.
Yeah I know..
… but I’m still gonna be pissed.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 24, 2009 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I wrote about him on Ladies... the other day
When you look at his numbers, it just really sucks that he has to deal with Pujols. Prince’s #‘s throw a long shadow over Pujols’ numbers last season and Rollins from 2007. Poor Prince
Wi-fi from go-go
this is on all the air-tran ads. is this considered a differentiator? i was on an american airlines flight sunday and they had wi-fi… i don’t get these ads.
30
30 pitch 1st inning for Suppan (well, 29, but I’m a pessimist) over/under 3.5 innings tonight?
Personally, I think we got hosed on that one! - Harry Doyle
Is it wrong that the guy in the neck brace (holding a rookie sign) made me laugh?
battlekow: Bill is having an oppo-gasm
Since it's National Punctuation Day
I’m going on a rant – BA constantly talks about how a guy has “over” a number of things — he has over 40 home runs, he has over 130 RBI – but over is a spacial term – the cow jumped over the moon – You don’t use over with numbers. The correct usage would be “more than 40 home runs” and it drive me nuts
endrant
Yeah
what is that? It’s like he’s too embarrassed to say it correctly.
by Nicole Haase on Sep 24, 2009 7:52 PM CDT up reply actions
i, hAte--punctuation...
-A Witrado
battlekow: Bill is having an oppo-gasm
by Michael M on Sep 24, 2009 7:52 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
does "flied" bother you?
it should be “flew out to left”, but common baseball usage is “flied out to left”. it bothers me, but i figured i’m in the minority. but then, i am a minority…
by Capt Science on Sep 24, 2009 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions
It didn't
But it will now
Thanks a lot!!!!
by Nicole Haase on Sep 24, 2009 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions
end thine rants
flied  /flaɪd/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [flahyd] Show IPA
Use flied in a Sentence
See web results for flied
See images of flied
–verb a pt. and pp. of fly 1 .
flied (flīd)
intr.v. Past tense and past participle of fly1.
also
11. Baseball. a. to bat a fly ball: He flied into right field.
b. to fly out.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 24, 2009 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions
twas a correct usage (source: dictionary.com)
3. above in authority, rank, power, etc., so as to govern, control, or have jurisdiction regarding: There is no one over her in the department now.
13. in excess of; more than: over a mile; not over five dollars.
14. above in degree, quantity, etc.: a big improvement over last year’s turnout.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 24, 2009 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions
personally i'm a bigger fan of hustle and flow
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Sep 24, 2009 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions
It only takes 4 hours to set up what WMC has ready in 10 minutes.
But you have the satisfaction of saying “Screw You” to Microsoft.
I tell ya, if I knew anything about setting up a computer
I’d set up the mythtv…sadly that’s not going to happen.
battlekow: Bill is having an oppo-gasm
Still hope they can keep Lopez
And find a position for him to play since Weeks will most likely be back at 2nd
Everything is just swell :)
Wow, what a Suppanesque performance
I’m really surprised he’s managed to keep his ERA under 5 this year….
Personally, I think we got hosed on that one! - Harry Doyle
that's one thing I'll miss about JJ
he very rarely made throws like that
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 24, 2009 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Prince's defense will suddenly look a lot worse next year
Instead of throws from McGehee/Counsell/Hall, Hardy, and Lopez, he’ll have Gamel, Escobar, and Weeks making him stretch all over.
You know me Al.
There's no way the Brewers can let Suppan pitch for two more years is there?
I have a feeling it might turn into a Jeffrey Hammonds situation
battlekow: Bill is having an oppo-gasm
he's only under contract for 1 more year
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 24, 2009 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Honestly, I'd be surprised if he pitches for the team next year.
Eating one year of terrible contract should be doable. Going into the season with Gallardo, Parra, Bush, one acquired starter of very high quality, and one 4th/5th starter type guy (maybe Looper, maybe not) would be fine. I’m not OK with having Suppan as the 4/5 guy again, and I’m not ok with Doug keeping Soup AND getting another 4/5 guy like Looper.
you're not okay with soup
but you’re okay with looper?
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 24, 2009 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, Looper doesn't cost 12 million per year.
Plus, we’ve had 3 years now for the suck fatigue to accumulate on Suppan.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 24, 2009 9:27 PM CDT up reply actions
but suppan still does cost
regardless of if you suit him up. and looper will cost a few million if you DO sign him to a contract.
If we’re throwing away 1 start in 5, I’d rather have that be with no additional cost
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 24, 2009 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Managed to raise his ERA a quarter of a run in late September
It’s tough to do that.
You know me Al.
This seems like a good time for Butler to pitch
Is he still with the team? I heard they were sending him home so he could get a little rest before the AFL
"my goodness"
If you need a break from tonight's game
Now seems like a good time to remind you that it could be worse: you could be a Cubs fan.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Kendall is only a double and HR away from the cycle
He got his second-hardest out of the way already.
You know me Al.
That's not the second hardest for Kendall.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Since 2005:
5 triples, 6 homers. Dang, Kendall.
by Braunstalker on Sep 24, 2009 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I was just about to ask.
Chorizo is on a roll!
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Fielder's 97th run scored
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
with three more, he'd have the ninth 100 R-100 RBI season in team history.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
And the only 100R-100RBI-100BB in team history!
Personally, I think we got hosed on that one! - Harry Doyle
Someone's brat swinging a thunderstick in the Best Seats in the House
And, of course, the little douchebag is wearing a Happy Youngster shirt.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
You really don't like kids do you?
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 24, 2009 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Typically, no.
This week, even more no.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
if you're that opposed
you should get the snip snip.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 24, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions
hey...
do they ever do pythagorean wins for individuals pitchers (based on his team’s average offense for all pitchers)? if so…what’s loopers?
geeking out for a minute
looper is 13-7 (0.650 win percentage).
based on information from fangraphs’ game logs, he’s allowed 112 runs and had 143 runs of support. so if you use the basic “2” exponent, he should have a .620 winning percentage. if you use the “1.83” exponent suggested by baseball-reference, you’d get a .610.
if you decide earned runs are more important than runs allowed (which i’m not sure would be true in this case), it goes up to .654 or .642, depending on your exponent. which is shockingly close to the actual result.
by Capt Science on Sep 24, 2009 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions
neutralize the support based on team-average
so…how many runs this season have we generated, multiplied by the innings (games?) he’s appeared in, divided by the number of innings (games) total we’ve played in
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 24, 2009 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions
well, i think there is something to run support
though that seems to have fallen out of favor.
also, that requires me to do slightly more work.
oh wait, baseball-reference makes it easy to get to. so, the brewers have scored 722 runs in 152 games, or roughly 4.75 runs per game. looper’s started 32 games, so that’s 152 “neutral” runs (which means looper’s run support is kinda low, i guess). that makes the pcts .681 or .667, using looper’s runs (not earned runs).
by Capt Science on Sep 24, 2009 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions
shocking
…but i guess that’s because you should do based on innings or extrapolate his runs allowed per full game (8.75 innings?)
otherwise you’re counting whole-game run support, but only penalizing for the runs he allows when he’s in (and assuming he wouldn’t have given up any more the rest of the game).
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 24, 2009 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions
assuming he pitches 6 innings per 9 inning game
(which is high for him and low for the average length of game) he should have 3.125 runs per game – so 100 runs of support.
so…runs allowed of 112 and runs scored of 100.
Yes, it’s possible that certain pitchers “inspire” the players to put up more runs, opposing managers pull their starter earlier when they’re up gobs of runs, or certain teams play from behind better than when they’re ahead, but I doubt that accounts for over 1 run per game on average
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 24, 2009 10:29 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm glad Davey Lopes is good at something.
Because managing certainly wasn’t it.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
just what i was thinking
and…if the phillies stole first there how mad would lopes be…
battlekow: Bill is having an oppo-gasm
Hey, yet another Kendall HBP!
Tune in tomorrow morning for Plunk Everyone’s notes in the Mug.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
current gameday ad
“can’t find the MLB tickets you want? try stubhub
Mavericks at Wizards
Nets at Wizards
Heat at Wizards
The official fan to fan ticket marketplace of MLB"
MLB logs abound
So I finally get home (8:00 here on the West Coast), turn on the DVR, and what do I see?
More of the same. Sigh. It’s just been one of those seasons. Like most of the previous 27.
Given Braun's strange timing for stolen base attempts
Maybe he’ll try to steal third here, even though Lopez is there.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
He's probably ticked that he didn't get a SB for that last one
Defensive indifference? Ya think? Up by 7?
Post game thread
is open.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.13.2012 at 7:02 AM CST)
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