Tuesday's Frosty Mug
by KLSnow on Sep 29, 2009 8:54 AM CDT
in News
40 comments
Two weeks ago, Mark Attanasio told Telly Hughes the Brewers don't need a major overhaul and he didn't see any major moves on the horizon this offseason. Apparently a lot can happen in two weeks, because Attanasio has changed his tune and now says the Brewers will "explore every avenue" this offseason, including the possibility of trading Prince Fielder.
There would likely be howls of protest if this deal went through: The Baseball Opinion speculates that the Brewers could trade Fielder to the Braves for Javier Vazquez. Vazquez would be a one-year rental for the Crew, and his $11.5 million salary would mean the Brewers would actually be spending more than they'd spend to keep Fielder, who is due $10.5 million.
Elsewhere on the market, Brewers Daily has a list of potential free agent pitchers this offseason, and looks at which ones might be candidates for the Brewers. If the Brewers, or any other team, are planning on signing a free agent pitcher to save them, they should read this post at FanGraphs which notes that just three of the top 30 starting pitchers in baseball were acquired via free agency. Eleven were acquired by trade, and 13 were drafted.
By the way, Jason Marquis is another name that will likely come up at some point. Jorge Says No! thinks he'll get 3 years, $24 million.
For many Brewers, the day off yesterday gave them an opportunity to take a break and refocus before opening tonight's series in Colorado. For Mat Gamel, though, it was more of the same: He got zero at bats yesterday, the same number he's been given most days in September. Adam McCalvy takes a look at the season that was for one of the Brewers' top prospects, and Gord Ash steps in to stick up for the kid a bit.
No, Rickie Weeks is not moving to center field. Repeat it as many times as required to make it sink in.
In the minors, Jake Odorizzi (#2), Eric Arnett (#10) and Nick Bucci (#17) cracked Baseball America's list of the top 20 prospects in the Pioneer League (FanShot). One can probably expect all three of them to open the season in Wisconsin next spring.
The Brewers dropped one spot to 18th in The Sporting News' Power Rankings.
Around baseball:
Red Sox: Designated outfielder Chris Carter for assignment.
There haven't been as many complaints about it this year, but it's a pretty good year to be a large market team. Unless the Twins or Braves make a late charge and unseat the Tigers or Phillies, six of the top eight 2009 payrolls will be represented in the postseason. The Mets and Cubs are the only top-8 teams missing out.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham recently visited Miller Park for the first time, and has a relatively quick review. Not to be outdone, Babes Love Baseball has an even quicker review of Robinade.
Happy birthday today to Ken Macha. Would you have guessed he's only 59? Also, happy birthday to Rob Deer, who turns 49.
That's all I have for you today, unless you're looking for panoramic views of Israel set to Ryan Braun home run calls.
Drink up.
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I am sorry but if they trade Prince
For a one year rental I do not care who it is I will turn my back on them. I do not have a problem letting Prince go if they can break the bank getting players back for him but trading him for a guy we could lose in one year is just plain stupid.
I will be honest Prince won me back this season with his play and effort I would not have an issue if they decided to try and shoot the moon and lock him up for a while. I understand that with the Prince of Darkness as his agent that will be tough but try and if they will not do it trade him.
Everything is just swell :)
by WSB Chris on Sep 29, 2009 9:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I concur. A one year rental would be about the dumbest thing they could do. While he’ll be the biggest trade piece, see what I did there, this offseason for us, it’s a double edge sword where we can improve the pitching by trading him, but we’ll lose out so much on offense it wouldn’t even matter, especially given Prince plays 162 games a year verses a pitcher, any pitcher, who can never be a lock to make every start.
PensBurgh penalty - Lavender - 2 Minutes for Excessive Stanley Cup Raising.
by Lavender on Sep 29, 2009 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree for the reasons listed above
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Sep 29, 2009 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not only that
But it wouldnt improve the team. You take away Fielders wins and just replace them with Vazquez’ and then you miss out on one year of a player.
My personal opinion, posted on behind the box score, as well as a post over at the Orioles board, is that if they move Prince they have to do it for a prospect haul, and have to wait for a couple of years for the rewards to come.
Fielder for a current MLB pitcher doesnt help the team long term and probably doesnt improve them for next year.
The way a modest improvement comes next year comes by trading Hardy and McGehee for pitching, maybe including Hart, and then getting a healthy Weeks back. If by June its not working out, then Fielder gets dealt, and you get the prospect haul and go into semi-rebuild mode with an eye on 2012.
No way Fielder signs here long term, nor should the Brewers risk that much money on one player, potentially bankrupting the teams future to retain anyone, much less bring in guys to improve year over year.
by backtocali on Sep 29, 2009 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That guy doesn't really know what he's talking about considering his comments about Gamel
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Sep 29, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow. Yes.
Being a 33 year old Brewer fan, I have watched some crap trades, but trading Prince for a one year rental would make me angry to the point of not being a Brewer fan. Luckily, this will never happen.
by Braunstalker on Sep 29, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
DM isn't stupid
MA can talk about trading Fielder all he wants, but the decision is Melvin’s and he’s not stupid. He may not be hitting 1.000 on his free-agent acquisitions, but only a moron would get 75 cents on the dollar for Prince Fielder. We’re fortunate to be fans of a team that doesn’t have a moron for a GM.
by ecocd on Sep 29, 2009 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
At the start of last year, that is WHY I became a Brewers fan.
I was fed up with the Dodgers making boneheaded signings, like Juan Pierre and Jason Schmidt, let Jayson Werth go, and blocked their minor leaguers with veterans. And then when they showed no class in dealing with Grady Little, so I went looking for a team with a front office I could respect.
by Yar Nivek on Sep 29, 2009 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But what if
.75 cents ont he dollar is the best he can get? I think you need to look at a time value of money type of calculation here to get best value for Fielder.
Vazquez for Fielder is a bad move. No doubt about it.
But DM might have to make the tough, albeit, right choice to get 0.25 on the dollar with the expectation that that $0.25 will be worth $1.50 in 3 years.
He may not be stupid, but he. like all of his, values self preservation. Whatever Mark A says is going to go.
by backtocali on Sep 29, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But $0.25 that's worth $1.50 in three years
Isn’t $0.25 right now…it’s the present discounted value of $1.50 3 years from now, plus an adjustment for risk. Granted, for a risky asset, that could very well be $0.25, but that’s the whole point—Fielder has a ton of value, and doesn’t need to be traded for a risky asset.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
by Lefti on Sep 29, 2009 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Furthermore
You don’t trade $1 for something that might be worth $1 in three years. You trade a dollar for something that’s worth a dollar now, and might be worth more down the road, so you earn a return on your investment.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by KLSnow on Sep 29, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats what I'm saying
$1 now for $1.50 later, there is always going to be risk involved and the return may not be $1.50, but the alternative is that in 2 years, that $1 we have today is going to be worth $0.
by backtocali on Sep 29, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it possible
That Fielder is being over valued by the organization and the fans? i agree that he has value, in fact $28 million worth as a fair estimate.
It seems like its kind of like owning a home on the lake, that you can barely afford, and then the taxes kick in and put you into debt.
Or to take that further, if you own that home on the lake, only someone with the resources to pay for the home, and the taxes (and maybe improvements) is going to be willing to buy it from you for its fair value. And, if you have those resources, why buy the home for what you are asking for it, when in 2 years you can go and buy it for whatever price you feel like paying for it?
by backtocali on Sep 29, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
over valued?
.297, 3rd most HR in the league (43), MOST RBI in the league (137).
He’s putting up MVP-type numbers. How much more can you ask of a player?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 29, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
exchange value
Peformance wise, he is great. Having a great year, a top 10 year offensively in the league.
But when you talk about getting equal value in a trade for him (perhaps), 1) current, equal value is not going to help the team. If they give up Fielder for a 6 WAR pitcher, you just replace his wins with the guy you pick up, 2) he is going to be due about $26 million over the next 2 season and any team trading for him will most likely be on the hook for that, and 3) to get maximum return for him, you have to forgo some current results, in exchange for cheaper, riskier, higher upside talent.
When the Rangers traded Tex to the Braves, they got 4 B grade prospects in return. That is exactly what the Brewers are looking at right now with Fielder. Fans will probably hate it, but if they make the right move, in 2011 or 2012, they become a very good team, with a good solid core of young players, and instead of having a one or two year playoff window, they now have a 4 or 5 year playoff window.
If they wait too long, and hold out for too much, they have happen to them the same exact thing that happened with the Twins and Johan Santana.
by backtocali on Sep 29, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The return for Prince should be higher than the return for Tex
Simply for the fact that Prince’s rental would be for a minimum of 2 years, Tex was for a year and 2 months. Simple conversion (1 B grade prospect for every 2 months of rental) states we should get 6 B grade prospects.
In other words, there is little return I’d be interested in, so keep him and get the pitching necessary to make a couple runs before he departs, or re-ups.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Sep 29, 2009 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry
there is return I’d be interested in, that return will not be offered.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Sep 29, 2009 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand that point
but his performance these next two years could outweigh (No Pun Intended) the future value of our return.
We were a very good team with a very solid core of young players a couple years ago. Now let’s finish the job while Prince and Braun are still here.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 29, 2009 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would simply keep Fielder
I understand what you’re saying, but if the best offer the Brewers get is 75 cents for 2010 OR 2011, then they’re just going to keep him until he’s a free agent. Maybe you move him for 50-75 cents as an 80-game rental in 2011. They still get a compensation pick for him so they’re not leaving entirely empty-handed after 2011.
by ecocd on Sep 29, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's only been an hour
but today’s mug already has half of the action of yesterday’s.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 29, 2009 10:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
if you are constantly rebuilding, ala the Pittsburgh Pirates, you have no future to mortgage.
by tannerboyle on Sep 29, 2009 10:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not if youre doing it right
All teams are in a state of rebuilding no matter how they do in the standings. Thats the way the small market teams have to do it to compete and survive. The Marlins seem to pull of a major rebuild every year and have been very successful at it. The Oakland A’s were quite successful for a while doing the same.
What’s the alternative? Holding Fielder, being static in the standings, and then letting him walk in 2 years for a draft pick or 2 that it takes another 2 to 3 years to develop?
I think that if you traded Fielder now for a prospect package (as well as the Hardy/McGehee trade) you maintain stability in the standings for next year, and then the year after that going forward you go into a big upswing making the playoffs in perhaps 3 years and staying there for a few straight years.
by backtocali on Sep 29, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In Surgical NEws
Surgery yea or nay? Yes for #Brewers Casey McGehee (after the season), maybe for Burns, no for DiFelice
by SgtClueLs on Sep 29, 2009 10:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Fielder for Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury
How’s that for a slice of fried gold?
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 29, 2009 11:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great trade for the Brewers
But they would justifiably have Theo Epstein publicly executed in Boston Common if he accepted it.
Ellsbury is the only one of that group that has lower surplus value than Fielder. One for one for either Lester or Buchholz is a grand larecny by the Brewers.
by backtocali on Sep 29, 2009 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Bucholz would be "grand larceny"
but a pretty good deal. There are maybe 2 or 3 players in baseball that he would trade that package for. Maybe Longoria, maybe Hanley Ramirez, probably the two most valuable assets in the game.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Sep 29, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Lester for Fielder straight up...
Totally insane!!! Good grief, man.
by Braunstalker on Sep 29, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In which way
Insane for the Brewers or insane for the Red Sox?
Fielder approximately $28 million value (according to Behind the Box Score Trade Value Calculator)
Lester even using very conservative estimates for WAR (4,4, 3, 3, 3) his value is $41 million approximately.
To get Lester the Brewers would have to throw in Hardy as well as a player like Salome (along with Fielder) to make it worth the Sawx while.
by backtocali on Sep 29, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure I trust that calculator
are you saying Prince will be a $14 million player the next 2 years? Considering he’s going to be 26, and under team control for 2 years, I think that’s a VERY conservative estimate. Even if Fielder is 75% of his current value, that’s still $42 million of value.
Now with that being said, I do think Lester for Prince is a fair trade. Lester has been a 5-6 win pitcher the past 2 years, and is locked up for the next 4 (club option at $13 million for a 5th). The problem is that pitching is so volitile health wise, and the risk is much more on the Brewers than the Sox. I’d say throwing in a hitting prospect (Lin or Rizzo since Kalish is too much to ask for) and a pitching prospect (Doubront is the one I’d target) and you probably have a deal
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Sep 29, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be clear
He’s not saying Fielder’s raw value will be $28 million over the next two years; he’s saying his surplus value, i.e., his raw value minus the size of his contract, will be $28 million over the next two years.
As a side note, I’m not entirely convinced that’s the best way to determine value for a trade, and I’ve been meaning to write about that for a while, but it’s definitely an established method and has its uses
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
by Lefti on Sep 29, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just got my Winchester t-shirt in the mail on Saturday.
How’s that for a slice of fried gold?
Having troubles with wrapping my mind around Kirbir listening to T.I.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Sep 29, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
:-)
I really just wanted to quote Shaun of the Dead.
But that’s about the only trade I would make for Fielder. It’s hard to overvalue Prince, imho. Prince for Vazquez stright up is insanity.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 29, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We need to sic Zombie Dalton on Theo Epstein
He’d trade us Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury to avoid having his brain eaten.
Don’t stop me now!
by Brew Angel on Sep 29, 2009 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hilarious
But the wrong Winchester
Having troubles with wrapping my mind around Kirbir listening to T.I.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Sep 29, 2009 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't think about that
Both of my teams involved in a trade I’d hate. Uggggh. The Sox can just wait and sign Fielder as an FA. If there’s one thing the team isn’t lacking, it’s corner infielders.
by morineko on Sep 29, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sox are my other team too
but that’s a trade I wouln’t hate because the Brewers are waaay ahead of the Red Sox on my baseball priorities list. I more or less made that comment just to be ridiculous because I know it would never happen.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 29, 2009 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll have to sic Zombie Dalton on both of you
Since, if you’re Sawx fans, you’re obviously not making use of your brains, so you won’t miss them when he eats them. :-p
by Brew Angel on Sep 29, 2009 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crazy to trade
The Brewers need to keep Fielder, if at all possible. The management is crazy to even consider trading him. The pitching has been horrible this year, but the management should not try to correct one mistake by making another. Parra may have had a bad year, but it is the long standing mediocrity of Suppan that drives me nuts. He was 5th on the list for all time worst WHIP for his efforts this season. How much do we pay him? Trading Fielder would be like the Phillies trading Howard. Instead, the Philles paid Howard and got creative to get the pitching they needed.
by geodan on Sep 30, 2009 9:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.20.2009 at 10:30 PM CST)
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