What about THIS guy? The Chris Smith edition
by Kyle Lobner on Sep 29, 2009 12:48 PM CDT
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PrintDuring spring training and the early portion of the 2009 season, Chris Smith wasn't even mentioned as a possible contributor to this team. He went down to AAA and earned a shot, though, posting a 1.27 ERA in 28 appearances for Nashville, picking up 17 saves with a 0.867 WHIP in the process.
And, as a Brewer, he's been pretty good. He's also been used in a bunch of different roles. He's thrown two or more innings in nine of his 32 outings, and posted a 2.61 ERA in that role. He's also been called upon to pitch an inning or less in 20 outings, and posted a 2.89 ERA in that role. He's been called into games as early as the fourth inning, and has finished 12 games.
Opposing batters are hitting .196/.284/.405 off of him this season, and he's shown acceptable control (3.5 BB/9) while striking out enough batters (6.8 K/9, not as many as Todd Coffey's 7.1 but more than Seth McClung's 5.4), but the home run ball has been the one chink in his armor: He's allowed 9 long balls in 44 major league innings: That's 1.8 HR/9, higher than everyone on the team not named Braden Looper. Because of his tendency to allow home runs his FIP is 5.62, suggesting he's been exceptionally lucky.
Smith is 28 years old and will finish 2009 with less than a full season of service time, meaning he's under team control for at least five more seasons and can be paid the league minimum or close for both 2010 and 2011. He's also significantly outperforming his career numbers (he has a 4.33 career ERA in AAA, compared to 1.27 this season), making him a candidate to regress.
So, to sum up:
Pros:
- Smith is very flexible, can pitch multiple innings and early or late in games.
- He's been very effective in AAA and the pros this season.
- He's under team control for five more seasons and available really cheap for two of them.
Cons:
- His numbers this season are much better than his career numbers, suggesting he may regress to the mean.
- He's allowed an inordinately high number of home runs in the majors, and FIP suggests he's been very lucky.
- Even combining AAA and the majors, he's only thrown 86.2 innings this season, and it's tough to get a full evaluation with a sample size that small.
So, what should the Brewers do with him?
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Luck on homeruns?
What would Smith’s numbers look like if he’d only given up 7 HRs or 6 HRs? It’s not like there’s no luck in giving up homeruns, especially with such a small sample. One crazy good catch by Cameron at the wall and a pitcher that “should” have 9 HRs, only gives up 8 HRs. Is a ball hit to the deepest part of the park any better than a ball hit just as hard to left-center? I have a hard time putting much leverage on his HR figures over 44 innings. I’m in favor of keeping him around, because he doesn’t seem a likely candidate to be a 2010 Jorge Hoolio.
Luck on home runs
I didn’t look them up individually, but I’m guessing some of the FIP difference is based on the fact that he’s giving up solo home runs.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
But it's also a sample size issue, you're right.
If one of those balls is caught it would dramatically alter his FIP, because we’re talking about slightly more than 40 innings.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
But wouldn't him giving up
an inordinately high number of home runs suggest he has be UNlucky? His HR/FB rate shoud regress towards league average which would bring his FIP down.
Maybe
But if he’s giving up a ton of hard hit balls, it could also suggest he’s going to start allowing more 2 and 3 run shots.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Bring him back if and only if
he starts bending the brim of his hat.
by thefreewheelin76 on Sep 29, 2009 1:11 PM CDT reply actions
Counterpoint!
I like his style because it plays counter to the stereotype of whites bending their brims, while (again, gross oversimplification alert) blacks and latinos don’t. It’s turning into a racial marker that I don’t think baseball needs, so anyone who plays against type is all right by me.
I think he deserves a chance next year, but here's what I see.
LD% – 16.2%
GB% – 33.8%
HR/F – 15.4%
LOB% – 93.9%
The line drive numbers are about average, I believe the GB numbers would indicate he’s a fly ball pitcher, but I’m not certain on that. The 15.4% HR/F is actually about average, so I wouldn’t say he’s been “unlucky” on giving up home runs. HR/F is actually a rather consistent pitching statistic, so that does seem a little daunting.
But his LOB% is absurd. I believe the average is close to 75%, and LOB% has not been shown to be a stat that correlates well from year to year. So next year, he could expect to regress to the mean which would be ugly.
A look at his graphs shows that lately he’s been inducing more ground balls and giving up less fly balls, which is a good sign though. I say give him a shot, but I would expect he would be in the range of a 4.5 ERA. And with Suppan in the rotation, the BP needs all the replacement level or better pitchers it can get.
LOB%
how many of those runners were someone else’s? I would assume a reliever coming into someone else’s inning has a higher-than-average LOB%, as they might not have allowed the runners themselves and often have fewer outs to get.
Let him compete for a spot in 2010
His flexibility if he makes it would allow coffey to focus more on being a setup man, I think.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Sep 29, 2009 1:58 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Also, what I am really curious about is narveson
I know one spot start does not a statistic make, but 11 punch outs in 70 pitches makes me wonder if maybe he would be a better (and for sure cheaper) option than looper. Plus having another lefty in the rotation I would like.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Sep 29, 2009 2:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I think it would be silly to not bring him back
He’s at least earned the right to compete in ST for a spot. Its probably unlikely he would make it anyway, but at least let him try and send hm back to AAA as depth.
Aside from some inconsistency w/Villa, Stetter and McClung, I think our bullpen has been great this year. I’d be pretty happy with Coffey, Hoffman, Stetter, Villa, McClung, DiFelice, and Vargas next year.
"my goodness"
Same here, and speaking of Hoffman
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/free-agent-market-closers.html
I was a little blown away by these numbers – Trevor is MILES ahead of any of the other guys on the market.
I don't really ever get the "flexibility" thing
is there a type of pitcher that can’t pitch early or late in games? If you throw out lefty/righty specialists of course. If anything, he’s maybe less flexible because he’s been a 1 or 2 inning reliever. He’s pretty much your typical guy that bounces between AAA and decent middle reliever.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Early/late in games, maybe not
But there’s certainly value in the ability to pitch multiple innings and/or be effective in short bursts. There are a lot of one inning only relievers out there, not a lot of guys who can consistently be effective for 2 or more.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
finally, an entire Chris Smith post
So posting this link is finally not off-topic. (Pics of Smith not wearing the flat hat, and that’s all I’m sayin’.)
He’s certainly been better than I had expected.
I don't understand
any argument for not bringing him back. It’s not like we’re overstocked with pitching.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Yeah, exactly
That’s my argument for pretty much anyone with a pulse and an arm: at least give them a chance in Spring Training.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
I think you're missing the point.
Obviously, bringing him back adds an arm in spring training. He’s exactly the kind of guy teams love to sign on minor league deals to bring in to compete. The 40-man spot is the difference, though: Smith isn’t on a minor league deal anymore. It’s possible a better option to fill his spot could come along, and there’s only so many spots.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
There are other spots opening up, though
Vargas, Weathers, Kendall, Rivera, Counsell, Lopez, Cameron, Catalanotto and Patterson are all free agents. Burns, Dillard, and Iribarren may be nontendered. Even if some of those guys come back, the team won’t be hurting for roster spots right away.
“It’s possible a better option to fill his spot could come along, and there’s only so many spots.”
Well, then, release him. It would be foolish not to and I don’t think anyone voting to give him a shot would argue otherwise. Might as well hold onto Smith until the move is forced, and that won’t happen for months, if at all. It’s not like he’ll be expensive to release off the 40-man roster in spring.
You know me Al.
Agreed.
But the thing about all those roster spots opening up is twofold:
1) The team will presumably re-sign or bring someone in to replace a fair number of those guys, and
2) Some guys will have to be added from the roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. (Another topic to discuss soon, I guess.)
So, there’s three possible uses for Smith’s roster spot:
1) Chris Smith, obviously
2) Free agent, someone waived to make room on someone else’s 40 man, etc
3) One more minor leaguer to protect from the Rule 5 draft.
So, the question becomes: Is Smith, a minor league journeyman who’s had one good year, worth more or less to you than the fringe guy that’ll have to be left exposed in the Rule 5 draft so he has a roster spot?
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
I don't really think that's the question
Many (most?) free agents don’t sign until after the Rule 5 draft is done with anyway, so there will be spots open in late November and early December.
I guess I (probably not alone) am reading the story and poll as a keep him or cut him right after the season. With that in mind, yeah, keep him until you have to let him leave.
It sounds like you’re intending it to be a referendum on him in January and beyond. So many things can happen by then that there’s really no way to come off the fence on a 20-30th man on the 40-man roster. Chances are there will be a number of players out there like him that can be signed as NRIs at that time.
PS: I think you’re underselling him a bit, he has done pretty well since converting to a reliever.
You know me Al.
Maybe this question won't actually have to be answered for a while
But I need content NOW, damn it! :-)
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
KL just wanted to lord this over us
Sure, now I understand the poll question. Thanks for making me feel stupid KL. Now that I’ve cast my vote for apparently leaving Fielder off the 40-man roster and losing him in the Rule 5 draft, I’ll go to my corner and be glad once again I’m not actually a GM.
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