What should the Brewers do with Manny Parra?
by Kyle Lobner on Sep 30, 2009 2:13 PM CDT
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PrintLater this week, Manny Parra will make his last start of the 2009 season, giving him one last chance to maintain some momentum heading into the offseason and spring training of 2010. I don't think anyone got the season they were hoping for from Parra, who's spent part of 2009 in AAA due to ineffectiveness, part of it on the shelf with a stiff neck, and the remainder being either infuriatingly inconsistent or simply infuriating.
Nearly every projection for the 2010 Brewer roster includes Parra in the rotation, and certainly, if he can bounce back from a rough season, he would be one reason to predict a major improvement over 2009. The problem is, Manny Parra hasn't just had a bad season, he's had a historically bad season.. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 120 innings, Parra's 6.16 ERA is the third worst in franchise history:
| Pitcher | Year | ERA |
| Glendon Rusch | 2003 | 6.42 |
| John Snyder | 2000 | 6.17 |
| Manny Parra | 2009 | 6.16 |
| Allen Levrault | 2001 | 6.06 |
| Gene Brabender | 1970 | 6.02 |
He also has the worst WHIP:
| Pitcher | Year | WHIP |
| Manny Parra | 2009 | 1.784 |
| John Snyder | 2000 | 1.764 |
| Glendon Rusch | 2003 | 1.751 |
| Jeff Suppan | 2009 | 1.692 |
| Jimmy Haynes | 2000 | 1.645 |
And the third most hits per nine innings:
| Pitcher | Year | H/9 |
| Glendon Rusch | 2003 | 12.48 |
| Mike Caldwell | 1984 | 11.43 |
| Manny Parra | 2009 | 11.34 |
| Scott Karl | 1999 | 11.20 |
| Larry Sorensen | 1980 | 11.13 |
There are a lot of names on those lists that no one should be proud to be listed next to. Even while playing for a franchise that's had more than it's share of terrible pitching in the past, Parra's 2009 season is arguably one of the worst in franchise history.
Obviously, Parra is still young, left handed, and has tremendous stuff when he's on. But it might be time to stop making excuses for him: He'll be 27 years old in October (he's only ten months younger than Chris Narveson), and if the Brewers are serious about contending in 2010, then they could be seriously hindered by a decision to keep trotting him out there and seeing if he can work through his troubles.
If I ran the Brewer front office, there are several courses of action I'd have to seriously consider taking with him. Follow the jump to read about them.
I'll start with the controversial one:
Urge him to play winter ball. After pitching 166 innings in 2008, Manny has thrown 162 this season (including 24.2 in AAA), and will likely finish 2009 with under 170. Without overextending himself too far, Parra could probably make somewhere in the range of 5-6 starts for a winter league team, and those additional starts would give him an opportunity to work things out and potentially build some momentum for 2010. If he can make a few good starts this winter, maybe he'll bring some confidence with him to camp. Even if he struggles in winter ball, he won't have much less momentum than he has now.
Get him a psychiatric evaluation. If you've watched Manny pitch more than one time this season, you've probably seen him pout his way through a rough outing at least once, or sit on the end of the bench and look like he's about to cry after getting pulled. Parra is routinely accused of having a lack of mental toughness, but maybe there's more to it than that.
It wasn't that long ago that Jorge de la Rosa was in a similar situation with the Brewers - great stuff, poor command, "mental toughness" issues. The Brewers eventually traded JDLR to the Royals for Tony Graffanino, and he struggled for parts of two seasons there before being dealt to the Rockies. He struggled there too until he started seeing a sports psychologist. Read through that article and tell me JDLR's problems don't sound a lot like Manny's problems. De la Rosa has made 31 starts for the Rockies this season and is right around league average.
Write him onto the 2010 roster in pencil, not ink. After the season he's had, Parra hasn't earned any favors and should have to earn his way onto the team and into the rotation next season. Even if no one else is brought in to compete for a spot, Parra should have to beat out the likes of Chris Narveson and Chase Wright to be a part of the rotation next spring.
As I mentioned above, Parra is left handed and has great stuff when he's on, but he's also been wildly inconsistent and he'll turn 27 before next season. It's time to stop treating him like a kid and hold him accountable if he's not capable of performing at the expected level.
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Interesting read on George of the Rose.
I’ve always said the most frustrating thing about Manny is that, based on his post-game quotes, he knows EXACTLY what he’s doing wrong and what he needs to do to be successful — command his fastball, attack hitters instead of nibbling at the outside corner, etc. But then, the next game comes and he does the same stuff, all over again.
If a sports psychologist can help him actualize what he can verbalize, I’m all for it.
Who the heck
Is John Snyder? Never heard of him. I was living in Minneapolis at the time that that season took place so that maybe explains part of the unfamiliarity, but its pretty rare if there is a guy out there who ive never heard of, especially one who pitched over 120 innings for any team.
The thing with Parra for me is that I have the sense he is just a start away from a major arm injury, given his past. Thats the big problem with imo.
He has great stuff as you say, and even if he pitches horribly, still deserves a shot in the rotation given his stuff. I wouldnt send him to winter ball given the strain put on his arm the past two seasons.
The head thing you just never know. He’s got to work that out for himself. There may be a trade market out there for him if they dont feel like hanging on to him.
I make him the #3 or #4 starter next year and live or die with what happens.
I would disagree with any of the three options you listed
If I were Parra, I’d be insulted if I were asked to see a psychologist. Having below-average control is not the same thing as being an idiot. Some people are apparently under the impression that he thinks it’s a good idea to throw a fastball down the pipe 2-0. Maybe have a conference working on pitch sequencing and game theory, but to pretend a psychologist is going to get him to hit corners seems to be a foolish hope. Did anyone suggest this after last year? No… and do those .07 more walks per inning this year really have that much of a change?
I’m barely concerned about him. He was slightly worse than in 2008 at the things that are within his control. 8 to 7.3 K/9, and 4 to 4.7 walks per 9. And a couple less groundballs. He was phenomenally unlucky this year— he deserved about a 4.80-5.00 ERA.
Would anyone seriously be OK with a scenario that involved Chris Narveson or Chase Wright in the rotation to start 2010 and Manny Parra not in the rotation?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I don't think asking him to see a sports psychologist is telling him he's an idiot.
Plenty of intelligent people see psychologists for a variety of reasons.
yes
but most people who have never seen a shrink (a sports-based shrink or not) and who don’t have any family members who have seen a shrink, are opposed to being told they should see one.
Jordan’s got a point.
However KL does too: I think it WOULD benefit Parra to see a psychologist IF he’s a willing participant at the sessions.
As to the 3rd point, I’d go a step further. Start him out at AAA, even if he throws fire. Bring him up after a couple of weeks if he did well in spring AND his first 2-3 AAA/extended spring outings.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 30, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, legitimately, why don't we send all the pitchers to see a sports psychologist if we think it will help their control?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Greinke
No offense but when a pitcher has pitcher’s block (or the pitcher is as dense as a block in Parra’s case), it isn’t the worse thing to “clear the mechanism” completely. He’s obviously got some issues and Prince doesn’t like his attitude.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
It's obvious?
I don’t think so. At all. Greinke had clinical depression.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Yeah, you're way off base
Did you even read the article, because your comments seem to indicate you neither read the article nor know anything at all about (sports) psychology. It’s hardly worth responding to the first paragraph at all.
As far as the numbers, if he deserved an EAR of 4.80-5.00 that still means he could be outpitched by a Chris Narveson or Chase Wright over the course of the season so I’m not sure why you seem to be opposed to him having to perform to retain his spot in the rotation.
I'd be fine with Narveson getting the spot
If Narveson beats him to earn it.
I didn’t suggest he’s an idiot. I suggested he may not be completely right mentally. There’s a major difference.
I’m not convinced he’s “slightly worse” than he was last year. I know his FIP suggests he’s unlucky and all that, but he doesn’t look like a guy with poor control. He looks like a guy that’s lost out there.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
So you'd prefer to let a 5 or 6 spring training starts decide who pitches?
I’d use that as a tiebreaker only. And I think there’s a sufficient enough gap— in talent projection and upside— that Parra shouldn’t be allowed to use a spot. I’d argue any time that Parra is the second-best starter the Brewers have right now.
I don’t mean to imply that suggesting a pitcher see a psychologist means you are suggesting he is stupid. Maybe I’m mixing this with the Rambling Al assertation that he is an idiot, but I don’t think walking 4.7 guys per 9 means he has significant mental issues. Gallardo walked 4.56 per 9. Doug Davis walked 4.65. Now maybe there’s an argument that all pitchers (or athletes in general) should work with sports psychologists to improve there performance. I could understand that.
Did he look like a guy who was lost out there last season? That’s a legitimate question. I just have never seen it.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
End of paragraph 1
that should say, “Parra shouldn’t be allowed to lose a spot”. Not shouldn’t be allowed to “use” a spot.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I'm curious...
… when you say “having below-average control is not the same thing as being an idiot”, are you suggesting that you have to be an idiot to benefit from seeing a shrink? Because that’s wildly inaccurate. If he were deliberately throwin 2-0 pitches down the middle he wouldn’t need a shrink. He’d need a good kick in the ass. The fact that he throws those pitches down the middle when he knows he shouldn’t do that is a problem that could be related to his mental processes that prevents him from developing consistant mechanics. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time an athlete’s brain has prevented his body from fulfilling its capabilities. And I suspect there are more athletes that consult with sports pyschologists than many of us realize.
I’m not that worried about Parra either, mostly for the reasons you cite in your second paragraph, but that doesn’t keep me from thinking that Parra has a tendency towards the self-destructive.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 30, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Seriously,
All this talk about him having mental issues is probably giving him some sort of mental issue. It’s like with Khalil Greene’s problem earlier in the season. Any time the Cardinals played, the announcers would talk about him as if he was this total nutcase who learned how to play short stop while wearing a straitjacket. When, really, I’m sure all he wanted was for people to stop talking about it.
So, if Manny does have something going on mentally that is affecting his pitching, it’s between him, his family, and the team. Absolutely no good can come from publically (yes the internet is public) making wild accusations about somebody’s mental health. From now on, I’m going to flag posts that suggest Manny Parra has mental issues.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I don't even know how it started, it's so weird.
Does Doug Davis have mental issues? He walks just as many as Parra. Strikes out fewer batters, gets less groundballs. I really have no clue, it’s like someone started it and it spread.
Parra is a average-ish pitcher with a lot of upside. If he gets his control back to his minor league levels he’s a top-notch pitcher, if it stays where he is he’s still pretty dang good. If we want to go back to extremely basic levels of baseball analysis we can point to his ERA and WHIP and say he’s crap. Fortunately we have far better methods for evaluating pitchers based on things they can control. Seems like we’ve been ignoring them lately.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
The pouting about...
after a bad performance leads me to believe that he takes his performance more personally and harder than a majority of the athletes out there.
When he has that look DURING a game, it hasn’t corrected his abilities – therefore it’s not productive for him (I’m there are some athletes who play better pissed off – I’d suspect Fielder is one of them).
Does DD exhibit the same expressions? I’m guessing not. The only other Brewer pitcher (I know DD isn’t one now) that MIGHT have this issue – due to press comments – is Weathers. Hardy might as well (he whines about his place in the order and goes through prolonged slumps where he looks lost and presses too hard).
I guess the psychologist could conclude that Parra wouldn’t really benefit from multiple sessions with him, but unless said psychologist is on salary from the Brewers (s)he’s unlikely to make that assessment, for purely finacial reasons.
Yes, Parra might need pitching advice/training as well, but why not attack a problem from multiple fronts.
So, to clear this up, the problem is...
that Parra looks sad when he is pitching?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
And if this is indeed the problem...
not looking sad might lower his BB/9 from 4.7 to 4?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Strawman: meet your creator Jordan
Jihad: I’m saying if he’s externalizing his inner turmoil that means that he has inner turmoil. It doesn’t mean that a player that doesn’t have external symptoms DOESN’T have some of the same issues.
I personally started having a better life after I made a conscious effort to “be more happy,” which had external projections as well as made my performance at work, school, and in life better. Is it such a fantastic leap-of-faith to believe that others might also benefit in their job performances from an altered outlook and attitude?
I’m not saying it will improve any one particular stat, but I’d bargain that something would improve (BB rate, strand rate, K rate, innings pitched, or even pitch movement and velocity) and overall he’d be better, even if only slightly.
by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 1, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Probably
First of all, I don’t understand why Parra is singled out.
I’m with you on attitude and everything. Probably would become a better pitcher. Again, maybe all of our pitchers should see psychologists and try to have positive attitudes?
I genuinely want to know why everyone thinks Parra has a bad attitude. There weren’t extensive discussions about his attitude after last season. Are people fooled enough by team/luck stats like ERA to think that something drastic has changed?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
How is he being singled out?
I’ve seen every pitcher in the rotation ripped on this site, even Gallardo.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 1, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah but Parra is the only one who needs to undergo a psychiatric evaluation, apparently
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
As I said before I don't know if he needs one or not...
… but I think the speculation (and that’s all it is) isn’t out of line when a guy gets sent down for a few weeks and then when he’s called back up those in a position to know talk about the differences in his approach and his attitude. Obviously the organization thought his mindset was a problem or they wouldn’t have talked about it as much when he came back.
I see your point (and I’m sorry if I should have seen it earlier), but in a way it’s a compliment. You could Suppan on the couch for years and he’d still suck. :)
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 1, 2009 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Makeup
What you are referring to there is called makeup. Its one of the key things scouts look at for every player, regardless of ability. How a player carries himself is pretty important.
Bad makeup/focus/mental toughness spells trouble for any baseball player. These things affect the outcomes on the field, and once agan, even if youre an all star type guy, bad makeup affects the team and the players around you.
So how do we know he has bad makeup exactly?
I agree there is some value to being a good person/bad person. Why does everyone think Parra is such a bad guy? It’s like 1 person started it and everyone just jumped on?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Who said he was a bad guy?
Again, you seem to think that the mere suggestion that he might benefit from talking to a sports psychologist as a comment on his value as a person or his intelligence. It’s neither. The very good and very bright can sometimes benefit from seeing a shrink.
Does Parra need to see one? Beats the hell out of me. But I don’t think he’s a bad or dumb person if he does.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 1, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
A lot of it has to do with being able to
guage a players reactions.
For all players it comes down to how well they deal with stress, whether internally or externally.
For a pitcher if he screams at his infield after an error, or an umpire for making bad calls, thats bad makeup. But you also have to see how they deal with adversity. If a guy (like Parra) gives up a HR or a 2 run double, and mopes around the pitchers mound, or storms around the field afterward, again thats bad news. You want to see a guy who carries himself professionally, even under the worst circumstances. Give up a 3 run HR, go right back to work as if it didnt even faze you, or affect you. And you have to pitch that way as well. One pitch to the next.
Gallardo for example has great makeup. Watch how he reacts when he has a bad inning of gives up a game winning HR. His reaction is the same whether first pitch of the game, or inning ending strikeout, or game winning play, he is calm and collected.
On the batter/fielder side, bad reactions like throwing helmets, screaming at umpires, etc. are all bad signs. Blaming other players is bad.
Something as simple as a guy who slumps his shoulders coming on and off the field.
Scouts look for confidence (not arrogance or cockiness) in how they play catch before the game, their attitudes during batting practice, even how a guy walks off of the team bus. Scouts see all of that, and it goes into their evaluation.
Parra has to be in the rotation next year
He wasn’t very good, but he was also terribly unlucky this year. More of a sign of how shitty the rotation was this year, but if you take out Chris Narveson’s four starts, the only starter on the team with a better FIP than Parra was Gallardo. Among starters with 110+ IP, Parra is tied with Dave Bush as the fourth unluckiest in the major leagues (based on ERA-FIP).
Obviously, he was still bad this year by any metric. But unless the Brewers can add 4+ better starters this offseason to fill out the rotation behind Gallardo, Parra ought to stay there. Besides, it was his awful walk-rate this year that inflated his WHIP and did the most damage. If he can work on his control/focus in the offseason – hey, even if he just performs at the “true” level he did this season – then he’s a decent middle-of-the-rotation guy to have. Add to that his youth and potential, and it’s a no-brainer that we should look forward to improved results from Manny in 2010.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
How about another option
J.J. Hardy will most assuredly see the door this off-season, and I hope his new team loves him as much as the ladies do in Milwaukee. But, what will he net? Unquestionably Hardy’s trade value has declined, though the shrewd business move The Mustache made with regards to playing time does a little to offset his putrid 2009 campaign.
Perhaps trying to package Manny Parra in with James Jerry will net a better haul. Well…of course it would, but perhaps it will net a better central piece coming back. I’m frankly done with Parra. I’m tired of the Front Office’s obsession with ‘upside’ (see also: Weeks, Rickie; Hart, Corey). We’ve got 4 #4 or #5 pitchers on this team right now, and a guy who’s more of a 1.5 than a 1.
Fine I’ll do it:
The Red Sox are clearly in the market for a SS. No, Clay Buchholz will not be coming to Milwaukee. Its highly improbable that Daniel Bard would. Its possible the Sox would think about moving Papelbon since they may believe Bard is the future closer, but I don’t want to pay an arm and a leg for that nut.
It would be intersting to see if the Brewers offered Hardy and Parra if it could net Michael Bowden and a couple of other lower prospects like Derrick Loop or Richie Lentz. In all honesty Bowden couldn’t be much worse than Parra has been.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
I'd be VERY wary about including any cost controlled starter in a trade.
That’s even without considering that Parra’s way better than this by any and all advanced metrics.
http://statcorner.com/team.php?team=MIL&year=2009&leag=N_L
tRA especially liked Parra this year. Seriously, do people believe that Suppan, Bush, or Looper were any better than Manny this year?
Apparently.
I try to fight the good fight but things don’t seem to be clicking lately.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
There's the straw man again.
I don’t think he’s worse than any of those guys and I don’t think many here do. I do think he needs to get himself right by whatever means necessary, but I don’t think he’s an idiot, a bad guy, or worse than those guys.
What other ways would you like to mischaracterize KL’s point?
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 1, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I actually wanted to know.
I don’t read many brewers blogs besides this, and I actually want to know if the average fans think those three were better than Manny this year.
Seriously, do people believe that Suppan, Bush, or Looper were any better than Manny this year?
Oh come on, Jack, you’re smarter than that.
As far as cost-controlled pitchers, Michael Bowden would certainly fall into that category, and has significantly less service time than does Manny Parra.
tRA especially liked Parra this year
Just for comparison’s sake, here is Bowden’s stat corner page. His tRA is right in line with Parra’s.
I’m looking for the bandage on the gunshot wound, here. If you can get a 3 for 2 giving up Hardy and Parra, I say yes. If it can be done without Parra, even better. If you looked at my post about 2010 payroll, you’ll see that I anticipate Parra will be on the roster and pitching for the Brewers. Still, that doesn’t change the fact that I would not be averse to trading him for the right player(s).
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Sep 30, 2009 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Right, I'm not saying he's an untouchable by any means.
We all should know by now the dangers of taking chances on pitchers over 30. If we could get back a guy like Bowden, sure. I really don’t think that’s feasible at this point, though. Trading Manny would be the exact definition of selling low. Now, maybe some of the smart GMs would see Manny as an interesting project, but right now that’s all he is, and we have absolutely no leverage in terms of trading him.
Fair enough
Just don’t let me catch you talking about Manny as a “guy who has no hit potential, is a lefty to boot who can touch 94 with his fastball and has wicked stuff”.
I can hit a 100 MPH fastball out of PNC Park. If I’m lucky enough make contact, after all.
I don’t believe that Parra will actually be going anywhere. I don’t think Bowden is as near untouchable as you might think, but it really depends on whether the Red Sox and Brewers are a fit, and whether Theo’s sabr folks believe that 2009 is the anomaly in J.J. Hardy’s career.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 1, 2009 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions
If parra is cut while guys like suppan or looper stay
Then I am seriously not watching a single game next year.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Oct 1, 2009 10:18 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
I would hunt down manglement if Suppan and Looper stay and Parra was cut
by Saberilliterate on Oct 1, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
When was that ever proposed as a possibility?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 1, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions
i didn't mean it as though i felt anyone on here was proposing that
but i recall melvin saying he felt good about looper’s mutual option, and well, suppan for another year, just makes me worried about his getting shuffled around in the off season.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Oct 1, 2009 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Ah point taken.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 2, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
What to do with Brewers' pitchers
Send Parra and Suppan to the showers…in someone else’s clubhouse! This miserable bunch of failures need to be dumped and new blood purchased if possible. The Brewers really can’t compete, and they will ALWAYS be an also-ran. The sad economic facts of big league sports.
Parra is our 2nd best starter.
Just unlucky. I am not worried about his control either; the best thing about Parra in the minors was his 3:1 SO:BB. He’ll have an era under 4 next year; book it.
Noted.
I’m sure KL will do the off-season predictions like he did last year again. You can put in your projection for Parra.
I, on the other hand, would assume it will be more mid to upper-4 range.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 2, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Pretty sure I ran that
If I ever get time I will do a recap
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
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