2010 Roster Projection with Salary Dollars
by Charlie Marlow on Sep 30, 2009 5:31 PM CDT
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PrintEDIT: I will include the actual arbitration dollars and the date on which they are agreed after the estimates I have given when they are final. Until then, I will list the CLUB/PLAYER submissions.
I was bored yesterday, so I put this stuff together using information from Cot's, and best-guesses on arb awards. Really, the point is to create discussion. Understandably some folks won't agree with some of what I've got, and that's OK with me. The first paranthetical is the arbitration year the player is in going into 2010. The second is last year's arbitration award. The total adds up to about $75.84M, $82.893M but that could be subject to change as I'm not entirely familiar with league minimum contracts based on service time and etc., and the Brewers internal rules for renewing contracts.
C - Gregg Zaun - $1.9M
C - George Kottaras - $400k
1B - Prince Fielder - $11M
2B - Rickie Weeks - $2.85M (arb 2) ($2.45M) ($2.75M on 1/18)
SS - Alcides Escobar - $400k+
3B - Casey McGehee - $400k+
IF - Adam Heether - $400k
IF - Craig Counsell - $2.1M
LF - Ryan J. Braun - $1.29M
CF - Carlos Gomez - $1.5M (arb 1) ($437.5k) ($1.1M on 1/18)
RF - Corey C. Hart - $4M (arb 2) ($3.25M) ($4.15M/$4.8M)
OF - Jody Gerut - $2M (arb 2) ($1.775M) ($2M on 1/18)
OF -
SP - Yovani Gallardo - $450k
SP - Dave Bush - $4.25M (arb 2) ($4M) ($4.215M on 1/25)
SP - Manny Parra - $450k
SP - Randy Wolf - $5.25M
SP - Jeff Suppan - $12.5M
SP - Doug Davis - $4.25M
RP - Trevor Hoffman - $7.5M
RP - David Riske - $4.5M
RP - Todd Coffey - $2M (arb 2) (900k) ($2.025M on 1/23)
RP - LaTroy Hawkins - $3.5M
RP - Mitch Stetter - $413k
RP - Carlos Villanueva - $1M (arb 1) ($800k/$1.075M)
RP - Claudio Vargas - $900k
2010 commitments to others:
David Weathers (option buyout): $400k
Bill Hall (estimate left on contract less Mariner's contribution): $7.15M
Braden Looper: $100k
More after the jump, if you care to read on!
I am assuming J.J. Hardy will get traded. No I didn't include the player who will take his place anywhere, since I've no idea who it will be. I also didn't include Hardy's salary dollars in this estimate.Hardy was traded for Gomez. Noted above.- Obviously, the arb awards/agreements could be higher or lower than what I have, but I have a hard time justifying much higher. But I could see this going up to a total of about $79M.
- The only spots open on the roster are
32 bench positions. That is, if Gerut is going to play CF next season. Hopefully Jason Kendall is shown the door. Otherwise, you're looking at increasing this payroll by probably around $3-$5M, depending on how idiotic The Mustache proves to be this off-season.Welcome, Triple G.- I don't have Craig Counsell or Mike Cameron returning either, to round out the 3 open roster slots. I think Cameron will end up too expensive, and they'll choose to go with something internal or on the cheap in FA. Its possible Counsell comes back to fill a utility role again, but I'd assume The Mustache would show him his appreciation for this career season and throw another $1-$2M at him if he does.
- I don't have Mat Gamel on this 25 man roster. It appears the organization is going to do everything it can to make sure Casey McGehee starts at 3B every day. That leaves Gamel as an odd man out. Unfortunately if they do not find a different position for him to play, it looks like the club may need to find him a new team.
- So...with that all said and done, how much can the FO spend?
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tcyoung posted something similar a little while ago.
Otherwise, if I calculated right, your total amount invested right now is about $75M. Given that the Brewers have started the season at $80M the last two seasons, I would guess that they have aound $5 million to spend, barring trades, etc. Though, I guess Hoffman is a free agent, too (you have him on your list), so that would give you an extra $8.5M, making it a total of around $13-14M to spend.
For the record, I voted $10M
I think that Mark A. will reach a little more this off-season after seeing The Mustache’s poor assessment of the pitching staff the last off-season will lead to more money spent.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
yeah, I reached the same assumption.. $85MM
I actually used slightly higher numbers to keep a conservative estimate of how much would be available to spend. I assumed that picking up an option would count as spending free agent money, so I came to a figure of about $25MM to spend on free agents/picking up options. It was also before the Bill Hall trade.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Move Gamel to RF!
Trade Hart, he’s overpriced at $4 and we can use the xtra cash for pitching and CF replacement.
Not immediately, but he'll still have to be paid
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
If you count Suppan...
…. we’ve got quite a bit of dead salary next season.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 1, 2009 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Looper, IIRC, is actually due $6.5 million if his option is exercised, not $6
Incentive for making 30 starts this season.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Right you are, I missed that
Unfortunate.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 1, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
They wouldn't...
HAVE to find a new team for Gamel. He could certainly go back down to AAA for more seasoning. I certainly wouldn’t hurt….other than possibly his feelings.
and his confidence
and thus, his production
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 1, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions
Sure, but I think McGehee is certainly an exception
as far as old prospects go. Gamel will be 25 next July, and if he sits another season in AAA, he’ll be turning 26 in the 2011 season. By and large, that is the ‘breakout age’ for many players…but not necessarily if they’ve had less than 300 AB at the MLB level.
For anyone who wants Gamel to move to RF, the change has to happen on October 5th, and then The Mustache has to get on the horn and trade Corey Hart for a Rookie ball pitcher.
My point is that you can only stash your ‘top prospects’ away for so long before they acquire the dreaded ‘journeyman’ tag in the minors. No team will want to take a ‘journeyman’ as the centerpiece in any trade package. They want a prospect.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 1, 2009 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Journeyman
I always thought that was used for people who played for many different teams. So it would be hard for Gamel to be a journeyman. Unless of course I am wrong which is also very true. He could get the lifetime minor leaguer tag though.
by Jeo on Oct 1, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah maybe so.
How about AAAAer?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 1, 2009 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Hart > Gerut
I wouldn’t mind giving Gerut a shot at starting in CF next year, but if you theoretically move Gamel to RF, Hart is the better player that can cover centerfield.
I don’t know the feasibility of that happening, but it would clear up the McGehee/Gamel conundrum at 3B and would give the Brewers a pretty nice collection of outfielders in Braun/Hart/Gamel/(Gerut)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I disagree
If we’re talking CF, I think Gerut would be much more valuable. He has + defense in CF, Hart has – defense in RF. Hart would only get worse as a CF.
Yep
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 2, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
CF
I’m not old on any of our potential CF’s next year, especially with our pitching staff. Maybe Burgoise could do it, but he probably wont hit. Gerut and especially hart dont have the natural insticts you need. I’d love to see mike cameron back but we cant afford to pay him more than $4mil. Lorenzo cain wont be ready yet.
I’d still like to see them make move Gamel to RF right now, and trade Hart for whatever pitcher they can get. Either that or trade Gamel, but his value is down now. In fact, all their trade chips with the exception of Prince are down now.
I voted
$10 million
The problem is that the help that is needed is pitching and I am not convinced there is anything out there in FA outside of John Lackey, that will actually help the team.
Hold onto that $10 million and use it to pursue draft picks that are asking for above slot money. With the 14th pick next year, the Brewers might have the chance to really pick up a nice player this year, instead of opting for the “signability” pick (not that that philosophy has hurt them in the past).
This years #14 pick was Matt Purke by the Rangers, one of only 2 first rounders to not sign. He was looking for about a $4 million bonus IIRC. Take the $10 million they want to spend on FA this year and put it towards their first 10 round draft picks and go for talent over signability.
So you wouldn't spend any money in the offseason?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
There isnt really anything exciting to spend money on this offseason
Id much rather build through trades or development. Why spend $10m in FA, when the best results come from player development, scouting and trades.
Unless they were to move Fielder and bring in young guys, and free up an additional $11 million, they could go out and get Lackey, but again, replacing a guy like Lackey, or Cain, or whoever with Fielder doesnt make next years team a contender. Just put it back into the system to help build for the future.
If they want to spend $5 mm on Coco Crisp maybe that might help a little, but not too much in the end.
The problem is
Not spending money will hurt you in the long run. Even if that money barely helps your team, you have to do something to keep fans coming, and maintain revenue. If you spend no money in the offseason, you’ll end up having less money to spend in the years that you’re trying to rebuild for because you rubbed so many fans the wrong way.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Vacuum
Yeah, of course its nice to dream, and sometimes these things look great in a vacuum.
I keep coming back tot he Marlins as a good example. I would be perfectly content with 5,000 fan games as long as they put the kind of product on the field that they do. Heck, easier to walk up to the gate and get a ticket for any game you want.
I really hope Prince is on that roster next year.
I hope they go out and spend a lot of money on pitching, and lock up Prince. He is the heart of this team, and to the casual observer (like my Mom, for example) the face of the franchise (She also likes Braun).
Most people following a team only know a few players, and not only does everyone know Prince, but he is one of the best in the game. I would hate to see him shipped out because “we need pitching.” Also, I don’t want to see Braun’s comments if they get rid of Prince. I want those guys to play together for a long time. Just because we are small market doesn’t mean we can’t have two superstars.
Prince makes Braun better. I don’t need to tell you guys that. Without the protection; they will be able to pitch around Braunny, like they did in St. Louis before they got Holliday.
I would much rather they trade Weeks (after his outfield comments), Gamel, and McGehee (selling high). I would personally keep Hardy for the moment; cause I’m not sure they will get fair market value for him. To me, Prince is untouchable.
Mark is a billionaire, right?
Lock up Prince, and squash all these rumors. Use the Prince/Braun combo to lure in some great pitching.
I agree with most of your post...
except for the example you gave regarding Holliday. Taking a look at Pujols stats, I don’t think too many teams were pitching around him before Holliday arrived.
I think that Gamel will be part of the 25 man roster
Along with Counsell but I doubt that they will be picking up the option on Looper. That would bring the total figure down to around $70 million with the Crew requiring and OF plus 1 starting pitcher.
I suppose it depends on what return they get for JJ. If they get a CF who is making comparable dollars that would mean that the Brewers would be at around $75 million with 1 starting pitcher to find which means I suppose anybody who would be $8-10million a year (note this does not mean they will necessarily be any good see Suppan J.)
If on the other hand he brought back a pitcher making a similar amount then the chances are that they will bring back Cameron.
The other way to save a little money would be to trade somebody like Riske or McClung(more likely). I think that Smith or Narverson would be able to do a similar job but for close to the minimum dollars.
I do get the impression that Mark and Doug could be quite aggressive this off season and I would not rule out bigger changes with Bush and/or Hart traded along with JJ to free up some $$’s for another “big-money” SP even if that means we cannot afford to bring Hoffman back.
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