Arm Chair GM: Casey McGehee
by Saberilliterate on Sep 4, 2009 8:10 AM CDT
74 comments
Continuing the theme that the season is over, let’s talk about the MVP for the Cardinals series.
For an October waiver wire pick up, I don’t think that anyone can say we didn’t get value for Casey. Re-reading the Fan Post that announced the signing was full of… well blah.
"…not sure I get it" – Our dear former leader Jeff Sackman
"I don’t know how he’d be an upgrade." – TheJay
"A major league equivalent of .636. A poor man’s Craig Counsell?" – roguejim
"He could be the next Jeff Cirillo!" – roguejim [Sarcasm?]
"McGehee was born on the day of the first World Series win in Brewers history. Picking him up off waivers was a no-brainer." – TheJay
No real emotion one way or another. There wasn’t even much emotion shown (in this post anyway) for the lost of many a fan favorite Joe Dillon who lost his spot on the 40-man for Mr. McGehee.
Here are Casey’s business vitals.
He is in the first year of his professional career so he made league minimum $400,000. The Brewers (or whichever team owns his contract after the December meetings) have to more years of full control, plus his three arbitration years of salary control.
From this morning’s BR page
88 Games (61 Starts)
289 PA
261 AB
46 Runs
78 Hits
15 Doubles
1 Triple
131 Total Bases
13 HR
49 RBI
26 BB
47 SO
.299 Ave
.358 OBP
.511 SLG
.870 OPS
124 OPS+
Defensively he isn’t exactly flashing the leather – at least consistently. At 3B has an .897 Fielding% where the league average is .956. But that is only in 46 games @ 3B. The rest of his starts came @ 2B where his fielding % is average but he only has 20 games started there.
The 2010 Season
The next savior to the organization is in Nashville waiting for spring training. In my opinion Mat Gamel has served his time and barring a colossal implosion between now and April 2010, he will be the starting 3B for Milwaukee next year. Yes there has been talk of moving Mat to Right Field, but let’s be honest, if the organization was going to make the switch, wouldn’t they have had him playing Right down in Nashville instead of waiting for Gamel to get to the Majors before making the switch.
Will Craig Counsel retire? Who knows. He is having a career year (.778 OPS) and could go out on a high note. Or he could play another year where Career Craig Counsel and his .695 OPS returns in the form of a 39/40 year old utility infielder. I believe that the decision to return is 90% Craig’s. Team manglement will re-sign Craig for another $1M if he wants to return.
Making the assumptions that Craig will return as super sub and Mat is the starting 3B, is there room on the roster for Mr. McGehee? How much playing time would he get? Looking at early 2008 as a model if McGehee isn’t starting, he probably won’t get much. Before Rickie went on the DL, Casey only started two games. And it wasn’t until Bill E fell completely out of favor with Macha that Casey began playing consistently.
There is no doubt that Casey is having a career year this year. I don’t think that it is reasonable to expect him to continue this pace through his career. His minor league numbers simply don’t support this production.
What is Casey worth on the trade market? I don’t know. Every time I speculate what someone is worth, I am put back in my place by someone who isn’t as clueless as I am. I don’t think that he brings back a big name. But can he get a #4/5 starting pitcher with a AA prospect? Is that shooting too high? Is he only worth an average RP?
What do we do with Casey?
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Trade him
Re-reading my post – I forgot to say what I would do….
Trade him. He is at the top of his game right now and his trade value will never be higher.
by Saberilliterate on Sep 4, 2009 8:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Couldnt agree with you more
Top of his value, package him with Hardy and maybe that starter that comes back is a #3 instead of #4/5. Brewers will be set with that #4/5 spot next year already with Suppan and Bush.
What do you think of adding Hart to the deal, if Cameron comes back and then they retain Gerut to play RF? That way you get an even better return if you package all 3.
by backtocali on Sep 4, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do not want to be set with the #4/5 starters being Bush and Suppan
I want one of them to be pushed back to long relief. We need more than 5 pitchers next year. And at least 5 of them have to be better than Suppan
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 4, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The difference being that Bush has much more worth than Suppan.
by NoahJ on Sep 4, 2009 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Suppan's Value = -1M Bush's Value = -1.2M
Suppan’s worth more than Bush. At least in 2009.
by Mykenk on Sep 4, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking about packaging him with JJ as well. But I don’t know how realistic it is to find a trading partner that needs both a SS & 3B, has a surplus of pitching AND is willing to overpay.
by Saberilliterate on Sep 4, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
trade mcgahee and gamel
Their value will never be higher.
by 1BCOACH on Sep 4, 2009 8:17 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You mean Casey McGehee?
It’s pronounced like you’re laughing – “Ma’geeee”
CounsellWSMVP10!
by kirbir on Sep 4, 2009 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that how you laugh?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 4, 2009 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we try to find a way to keep all three
I’m not entirely convinced that Gamel is ready to be playing full time in the bigs quite yet.
CounsellWSMVP10!
by kirbir on Sep 4, 2009 8:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My favorite comment on that thread:
“This may be the happiest day of my life.”
- cwyers
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 4, 2009 8:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Somebody should find wherever the waiver claim was announced on the other BCB.
I never quite got why, but Cubs fans downright despised McGehee.
by Zeyes on Sep 4, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
my favorite part
But I’m now stuck wondering what we needed space on the 40-man for, and I don’t have a good answer.
I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!
by cwyers
Raúl Ibañez.
“I’ve never complained about it. I’m thankful to have a jersey.” Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero
Yuck.
“That’s my opinion and if you don’t like it, well, I have others.” ~ Groucho Marx
by Al
I’m not sure how he’s doing since the break, but Ibanez would have been a much better option than Milton has turned out to be
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 4, 2009 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was my favorite part too
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 4, 2009 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
I like my two quotes. I am glad I was wrong about McGehee this year. I also think his value will never be higher. See if you can’t get someone to overpay and give up a so-so starter with upside for him.
I don’t want to come off like a jerk with this, but is “manglement” an intentional typo? If it is, I kind of like it.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Sep 4, 2009 9:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
How about packaging him with Hardy, maybe Hart.
I’d be disappointed if the FO sees McGehee’s year as an excuse to trade Gamel away for a stud pitcher. Then again, a stud pitcher would be nice.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 4, 2009 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Manglement is intentional. It was something that I picked up in the corporate environment years ago.
by Saberilliterate on Sep 4, 2009 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoops...let's try that complete comment again.
Somebody’s going to scream at me if I name names, but surely one of our umpteen low-level pitching prospects could be bundled into a fairly nice package with McGehee.
by Zeyes on Sep 4, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep 'em all
There is no doubt that Casey is having a career year this year.
Wouldn’t any production he provided be a career year since he’s a rookie?
Joking aside, I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing them all back. Counsell is going to pretty old but he would still be a good defensive replacement and a loose platoon at third of McGamel looks pretty good to me.
It is what it is.
by coolig on Sep 4, 2009 10:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Instead of "arm-chair GM" it should be "Deputy GM"
Taking Shallowness to New Depths...
by Fatter than Joey on Sep 4, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i think that job is taken
unless you’re saying that one of us IS ryan braun.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 4, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
DM should have a staff of Deputy GMs
Taking Shallowness to New Depths...
by Fatter than Joey on Sep 4, 2009 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So is Braun Doug Melvin's DM?
The DM’s DM
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 4, 2009 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
dungeon master?
i put on my robe and wizards hat
by warwick5s on Sep 7, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Try to keep all three...
but shop McGehee and see what you can get. Trade him is you can get someone to overpay. I see Gamel as the everyday 3B next year.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 4, 2009 4:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder
Is McGehee the next Bill Hall?
If you think McGehee (age 26) is for real, do you consider trading Gamel (age 24)?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Sep 4, 2009 5:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t see McGehee as the next Bill E Hall – Simply because I don’t think that DM will give him a contract. But I do believe that he is near if not at the peak of his trade value right now. I foresee a big Sophmore slump next year and I would much rather that slump be with some other team.
by Saberilliterate on Sep 5, 2009 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing nobody's mentioned...
If I recall correctly, McGehee can play the corner outfield spots. Granted, I have no idea if he’d play a competent RF, but if he performs anything like he has this year, I would love to see that bat stay in the lineup. Moreso than Hart, at least.
by Wayfaerer on Sep 7, 2009 5:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
McGehee has never played 1 game in the OF
and he would probably be better at 3B is his knees were better. I’d rather see Gamel in RF.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 7, 2009 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
do we know his arm can handle right field?
do we know he can run in grass easily? Judge fly balls?
Just because Braun works out in the outfield doesn’t mean that every failed thirdbaseman will be fine in the OF.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 7, 2009 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
his arm can handle right field
he has a “hose” (sorry, I had to do it). But my main thought behind my comment is that McGehee is a perfectly capable thridbasemen, much more than Gamel, and there is no reason he should be moved. If you want to keep both of them, Gamel should be the one to move.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 7, 2009 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll bet you'd like to see his hose...
and you never know, I might like to see him IN hose. I’d get a laugh out of it at least.
One reason that I wouldn’t move Gamel but might consider moving McGehee: who do you think will be a greater contributor to this team (either directly or via trade) in 2-3 years? I think this is a “big picture” issue.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 7, 2009 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I assume you mean move positions?
In the Gamel vs. McGehee thing?
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Sep 7, 2009 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's my assumption as well.
i don’t think she’s advocating a trade “move” of either player in this circumstance.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 7, 2009 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, moving positions
not trading
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 8, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously?!?!?
You believe that McGehee is a ‘perfectly capable’ 3B?
In 50 games @ 3B he has 10 errors and a .911 fielding % – extropolate that out to 162 games and you have a very Braun like defense @ 3B Fangraphs has his UZR/150 3B prowess @ -12.1. To put that in prospective – if he had enough games @ 3B to qualify this season he would be the third worse defensive third baseman in the league. Of all 3B who have logged at least 300 innings at the hot corner, Casey is the 5th worse in UZR/150
Do you still want to call him ‘perfectly capable’?
by Saberilliterate on Sep 8, 2009 7:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, I still call him perfectly capable
becuase he’s been playing injured this year- he’s not getting around well. He has a history of being a good defensive 3B in the minors- unlike Gamel. I’m not saying “move Gamel now,” I’m just saying that if you want both McGehee and Gamel on the team, Gamel should be the first option for a position switch over McGehee
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 8, 2009 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Though, to play devil's advocate...
if McGehee really falls on his face and has a sophomore slump next year, I’d rather have him in rightfield where (most times anyway) it’ll be easier to find a credible in-season replacement than for 3B. Gamel is probably a much lesser risk, hitting-wise.
by Zeyes on Sep 8, 2009 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Corey
I am also not ready or willing to give up on Corey Hart either
by Saberilliterate on Sep 8, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want to be in that same boat
but if the price is right…..
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 8, 2009 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
McGehee played an inning in the OF this year.
And I can’t find any stats from it, nor am I certain, but I thought he played a couple games in the outfield during spring training. So well he doesn’t have a lot of experience, at the very least we did play him one inning in a corner OF spot.
by NoahJ on Sep 7, 2009 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like McGehee.
What I don’t like is the fact that Macha handled Gamel about as badly as he could have. From my perspective if Macha’s intent was to minimize Gamel’s chance to impress at the major league level and to maximize the chances that his second half swoon would be worse than it has been in the past, he wouldn’t have handled Gamel much differently than he did.
The notion that Gamel’s struggles in limited and irregular opportunities at the major league level means we should deal him this offseason on the twin assumptions that we’ve seen what he’s capable of and that McGehee will produce next season at the level he has this season seems to me to be a recipe for ending up with a below average 3B offensively while watching Gamel succeed somewhere else.
I just don’t think that dealing Gamel and keeping McGehee is the right call.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 8, 2009 6:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Gamel’s treatment this month will be more of the same. Hopefully it’s a good showcase for an offseason trade of Mr. McGehee.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Sep 8, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm trying to withhold judgment on Macha because I know he got dealt a bad hand this year.
But his handling of Gamel is really pissing me off.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 8, 2009 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, a bold question.
If McGehee’s knees are healthy by spring training, and management has a reason to believe his performance will stay consistent or improve, do you think it would be the right move to trade Fielder for top-notch pitching, and play McGehee and Gamel at whatever corner infield spot suits them best?
Is that a win? Could it possibly be best for the team both financially and as far as putting a winner on the field?
by Wayfaerer on Sep 9, 2009 2:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm of the opinion
that Prince should not be traded this year. We’ll never get his value back, so we might as well let him play. Wait a year and trade, or sign him and trade later. As far as Gamel & McGehee go, I like Casey but he should be traded. Gamel Should be starting next year.
Pitching next year will be a real test for Melvin. FA’s are not that hot and these trade Fielder concepts don’t seem realistic. Big time MLB talent for big time MLB talent trades seem like an old fashioned thIing. It’s all prospects these days. I’m curious as to how DM will handle this, and not very hopeful.
The Brewers have won 8 games just like that this year. I call them luck wins. -backtocali
by Zorakathura on Sep 9, 2009 2:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm also of the opinion
that Fielder should not be traded. He’s having another career year (even sans meat) and is without a doubt the team MVP this year. I’m just theorizing on what might help make the team a contender next year – that is to say, could we make a run without Prince?
by Wayfaerer on Sep 9, 2009 3:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
But I do think that it opens the door to trading Gamel for pitching. To be honest, the fact that they added another year to Hardy’s contract leads me to believe that they are trying to shop Escobar for a stud pitcher.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 9, 2009 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep McGeehee
and Counsell and Gamel. Not enough umph for the must-do deal(s)
Want to seriously upgrade the starting pitcher ranks (who doesn’t)? Well, you can’t “get” without giving…
Unload Braun and/or Weeks and/or Hardy for beaucoup pitching. In some combination, they should be worth two-three much better starters than Bush and Suppan, say. And more. Talk to the Giants for starters.
Nibbling around the edges on trades will not rid the team of second half swoons.
McGeehee has more potential with the Brewers than he has in a trade. I love it when he steps to the plate against the Cubs…
"At times I'm emotional," --Ryan Braun, 7/7/09
by heybatterbatter on Sep 9, 2009 11:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Any trade that involves #8 had better include a Cuban boat load of pitching – both ML ready and 2012 prospects
by Saberilliterate on Sep 9, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you don't "unload" Braun
you keep him as long as you can, especially with how cheap his contract is
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 9, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
trading braun is an absolutely ludicrous idea.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 9, 2009 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
depends what you get in return
Sabathia, linsecombe (okay…that’s mangled), cain AND greinke for braun – sure. Matt Laporta for Braun? no
Every player has his price
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 9, 2009 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about, say, 3 Matt Laporta's?
They’ve got 9 of them, after all. He could play 1st, LF and RF.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 9, 2009 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but that's why it would never happen.
In such huge trades, both teams are trying to take advantage of the other by getting more than the players value in return. With proven superstars being traded, it’s going to always be prospects for star rather than star(s) for star(s). I’m sure someone might prove me wrong right away, but I can’t remember the last time two bona fide stars already in the ML for a few years got traded for each other.
by NoahJ on Sep 9, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say the basic problem is that almost no team is ever going to...
have the necessary pieces available to be able to afford trading for somebody like Braun (already a star, and with an extremely reasonable long-term contract taking you right through his prime), assuming he’s not being traded for cents on the dollar because the majority owner is going through a divorce or something. If it’s with prospects, you practically have to do one of those ludicrous six-for-one type of deals, except they’d mostly have to be A’s and B’s instead of Mogul-style crap dumps, and no team can afford to gut their farm system like that.
And as for a trade of stars in both directions, I think almost all GMs and owners are way too risk-averse to do it, especially if it’s pitching for hitting. Would you trade, I dunno, Pujols for Santana (both hypothetically under nice contracts for several years)? Just imagine that the guy you traded for gets injured badly after half a season while the other one continues to put up MVP/CY type of seasons.
That said, hey, if a team (say, the Rays) just so happens to find itself eight deep in starting pitchers this winter and wants to trade us a pair of credible #2 and #3 starters with several years of club control for Braun, i’d certainly listen. But what are the odds of something like that ever happening? Same problem as with prospects, practically no team will ever have the necessary pieces available to deal away, even if the risk issue didn’t exist.
by Zeyes on Sep 9, 2009 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I think that is what I was mostly trying to say.
Just a lot better.
by NoahJ on Sep 9, 2009 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No it isn't
As a GM it is DM job to listen to all trade offers regardless of who he would be giving up – pulling the trigger is another story.
Anyone remember the Richie Sexson deal???
If Atlanta (or whoever) wants to give us a good starter an A prospect near ML ready and a few other through ins for Prince – Doug Melvin better listen
by Saberilliterate on Sep 10, 2009 5:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
With the contract you have Braun locked up with
you don’t trade him. Even if you’re getting a stud in return, you’re going to have to sign him to an extension for his value to equal Braun’s. And the chances of getting him for so cheap are slim to none. I suppose you could listen to the offers, but I didn’t say anything about listening; I was just talking about pulling the trigger. And really, Richie Sexson and Braun are nowhere near comparible.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 10, 2009 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t pull the trigger for a single stud pitcher either – but what about a ML ready stud and a AA stud plus some B prospect? I don’t know… and without specifics no one can honestly say. My point was that DM had better listen to all real offers – after listening to the offer – he can laugh at them, think about them, or sign before they change their mind. But he has to listen first.
by Saberilliterate on Sep 10, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's been fun reading this "thread within the thread"
I’d love to be there to consider all the offers, but get me outta the room when a decision has to be made. Melvin earns his keep.
"At times I'm emotional," --Ryan Braun, 7/7/09
by heybatterbatter on Sep 10, 2009 11:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
so, we agree, sort of?
Weeks and/or Hardy for some real pitching help
McGeehee in a Brewers’ uniform at third or right or catching or …. in 2010
And Braun for “a boatload of Cubans.”
Sounds like a plan.
Let’s break for lunch….
"At times I'm emotional," --Ryan Braun, 7/7/09
by heybatterbatter on Sep 10, 2009 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A thought
Just induce a ton of double plays, set the 6-4-3 combo to verse, and no one will care who plays 3B next year.
You know me Al.
by TheJay on Sep 12, 2009 8:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I hear Suppan gets a lot of ground balls
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 14, 2009 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.21.2009 at 4:31 AM CST)
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