A question about Mr. Prince Fielder
by mvhsbball on Sep 8, 2009 6:10 PM CDT
81 comments
Its pretty obvious: The Braves need a power hitter (preferably a 1B or corner OF) and the Brewers need pitching. Here's an idea that I think could benefit both teams:
for
I know you guys know all about Prince, so I'll tell you about Jair (or JJ as he's called by us Braves fans).
JJ is 23 years old and is from Williemstad, Netherlands. The Braves aquired him from the Tigers in the deal that sent Edgar Renteria to Detroit. I guess you could say that deal worked out pretty well for us.
JJ throws a fastball which sits around 90-93 and can reach back and hit 95mph on occasion. His 2nd best pitch is his changeup, which can destroy LH batters. He also throws a 2 seem fastball with pretty good movement and a pretty decent curve.
This is his 2nd full season. Here are his stats from his rookie season:
13-10 3.68ERA 188.1IP 139K/70BB .260opp avg. 1.37WHIP
And his stats from this season:
10-10 2.93ERA 178.0IP 126K/64BB .244opp avg. 1.25WHIP
Not too bad. And don't be fooled by the W-L record. If our sh*tty offense would ever get it together, JJ could easily have 13 or 14 wins. There was a stretch over the summer when JJ gave up 2ER or less over a span on 12 starts, and went 3-5 in that stretch. Thats just pathetic and unfair.
So what do you think? I think it would really benefit both teams, not to mention it gives Mat Gamel a position to play (I hear he's not real good in the field) and a young, solid #2 pitcher behind Gallardo. The contracts are similar and both guys are still young.
Any thoughts?
1 recs |
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Jurrjens would be a good starting piece
But Fielder is a 4+ WAR player, still under control for 2 more years.
To get Fielder, the Braves would have to probably include Tommy Hanson as well, and probably Freddie Freeman before the Brewers even started to consider.
by backtocali on Sep 8, 2009 6:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
wait
Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Freddie Freeman?
Why dont you just send Braun and Gallardo with Prince if we’re gonna do that LOL.
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
by mvhsbball on Sep 8, 2009 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't agree with backtocali much,
but I agree with him when he says that Jair Jurrjens isn’t enough to get Fielder back in exchange.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 8, 2009 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But certainly Fielder isn't enough to get Jurrjens AND Hanson, much less a third piece with those two.
I will admit that I am not well versed on Braves prospects, but I would say something like Jurrjens and another B type prospect.
by NoahJ on Sep 8, 2009 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Brewers don't have to trade Fielder
If the Braves want him, they should pay a lot.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Sep 8, 2009 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Similarly, the Braves don't need to trade any of their good, young pitching.
I think you could argue that the Braves have even less of a need to trade them than the Brewers need for trading Fielder since Jurrjens/Hanson are under control for so much longer. With Jurrjens looking like a very good young pitcher and Hanson having been perhaps the best pitching prospect league-wide going into this year, the Braves have very good reason to keep both. The Giants are showing that a team can be competitive with great pitching and mediocre offense.
I certainly don’t think that Jurrjens alone should net Fielder, though.
by NoahJ on Sep 8, 2009 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point
man, i like discussions with fans who actually know baseball. if you ever find yourself in conversation with Phillies or Mets fans, run far, far away.
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
by mvhsbball on Sep 9, 2009 1:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Giants fans are the best...
…they make you examine yourself from the inside out
Taking Shallowness to New Depths...
by Fatter than Joey on Sep 9, 2009 8:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Hanson suggestion is ridiculous but Jurrjens wouldn't be enough on his own
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Sep 8, 2009 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably true.
I’m sure I’m not expert enough to know from a baseball perspective. But I think it’s safe to conclude that dealing Fielder for any one pitcher not named CC Sabathia would lead to a dramatic fall-off in game ticket sales and I don’t think Attanasio would approve any deal he can’t sell to the fanbase. I think most Brewer fans understand economic realities enough to realize that Fielder is going to leave once he hits free agency but I don’t think that means they’ll shrug their shoulders and accept any old trade as we arc towards the day when Fielder leaves.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 8, 2009 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
What about
Jurrjens and Freeman?
Freeman was having a real good year in High-A ball and then went up to AA. He started off well (he’s only 19 years old, too) but then injured himself and struggled for a few weeks before we shut him down.
Personally, I think Freeman projects to be a mixture of Atlanta’s 2 previous 1B: A Casey Kotchman/Adam LaRoche type. I think he’ll hit about 18 to 22 HRS a year, play some real good defense, and hit for a .275avg or so.
Oh, and thank you to everyone who shot down the Tommy Hanson idea.
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
by mvhsbball on Sep 8, 2009 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think the Braves would rather send a major leaguer than a prospect?
Simply to match contracts a little more. Fielder will make $11MM next year, and then god knows what through arbitration in 2011
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 9, 2009 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really agree with this....
As much as we would like to get SP, I don’t think trading Prince after his season this year, is going to be much of an option.
Taking Shallowness to New Depths...
by Fatter than Joey on Sep 9, 2009 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the thought
Hadn’t ever thought of the braves for Fielder…I’d do Fielder for Jurrjens, Freeman, and Martin Perez or Kris Medlen. Jurrjens and Freeman wouldn’t be quite enough for me, but add that third piece and I’m sold.
by marty22 on Sep 9, 2009 8:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The other thing to keep in mind...
Is that this trade is not going to be made in a vacuum…
I think we can all agree that Prince’s value is going to be through the roof, and I have to believe that the Braves are not going to be the only team that want in on the sweepstakes.
I don’t think the pertinent question is:
Does Prince = BravesA+BravesB
rather:
Is BostonA+BostonB > BravesA+BravesB
(or whatever team, I arbitrarily threw out Boston)
Taking Shallowness to New Depths...
by Fatter than Joey on Sep 9, 2009 8:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Boston could really use some more 1B talent
They’ve got nobody to play there at the moment.
by Brew Angel on Sep 10, 2009 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I bet we keep him
A year or two ago, I would have guessed we’d make a big trade. After this past season, though, I bet Mark A keeps him throughout arbitration and offers him a CC-like package.
In the same vein, I bet we offer arbitration to all of our Type A FAs.
Hmmm…I wonder if Mark A. knows we’re a small-market team. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Sep 9, 2009 8:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder...
how much money Mark A. has
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 9, 2009 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
With more research
As Joey states, Fielder’s value is going to be put through the roof after this year. Using the Kalkman TVC, Fielder only gets about a $28 million value. This is using roughly 6 WAR for the next two years. For the Brewers to blink you probably have to value him at $35 million.
I did not realize how much value Jurrjens has. Using the same tool and 3 to 3.5 WAR up to FA, Jurrjens is worth almost $40 million. Problem of course is that he has such a short history right now, and the fact that it has been pretty good history, may inflate his value.
Jurrjens is a very nice pitcher, but he is probably only a #3 starter on most teams based on his stuff. If the Brewers were going to unload Fielder this offseason, they might want a bigger impact type of player in return. Also the Braves may be unwilling to do another big trade like this after what happened with the Teixeira trade for them.
In looking at this again, Jurrjens doesnt work for the Braves probably if they use an inflated value. So they would have to over pay for Fielder and undervalue Jurrjens, and then its still imbalanced. The Braves would be working from a position of prosperity but probably dont want to part with Hanson.
Id say to be fair, and get good value on both ends, it would be something like Fielder for Freddie Freeman, Cole Rohrbough, and Kris Medlin and Rendall Delgado.
by backtocali on Sep 9, 2009 8:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Trade Fielder for a swingman and three low-minors prospects
I’m sure fans will love that.
You know me Al.
by TheJay on Sep 9, 2009 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Freeman
Is a top 25 hititng prospect, and the ptichers are all B graded by Sickels. Its similar to the Braves/Rangers trade a few years ago. Braves wont unload Hanson probably, although he fits in value wise in the deal. And as mentioned, Jurrjens (theorhetically) has more value than Fielder.
by backtocali on Sep 9, 2009 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, one place says Jurrjens has more value (to someone) than Fielder based on a short history. Etch it in stone.
Call me crazy but I think you can get a more immediate return for Fielder than a reliever who can maybe start and some guys who might help the 2013 squad.
You know me Al.
by TheJay on Sep 9, 2009 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
But hes going to make $11m next year and break the bank in 2011.
What do you think the Braves or anyone could offer for him? The money is the big problem for getting big time return for Fielder.
by backtocali on Sep 9, 2009 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bo Ryan can be manager
I hear he runs a pretty good swing offense
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 9, 2009 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i would love to trade with you in fantasy baseball
because you’d jump on the trading
A for B+C+D+E+F+G+H+I+J+K+L trades where B-L are individually worthless pieces of crap who hog roster space, but have in sum 0.01 wins over A
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 9, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
OK
Tell me a player, and tell me who I’d be the GM of….and I’ll tell you what Id give up. It could be a fun exercise.
by backtocali on Sep 9, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only if you were the Giants or the Dodgers though, right?
CounsellWSMVP10!
by kirbir on Sep 9, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to ask the question, though
How much does this team suck without Prince Fielder in the lineup every day?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 9, 2009 9:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
60-78
Still not at the bottom of the division, even without Braun still not as bad as Pittsburgh.
by backtocali on Sep 9, 2009 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so a laughing stock
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Sep 9, 2009 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That
is what I’m trying to figure out over on the McGehee thread. With a couple trade packages (Hart/Hardy, Fielder) for SP, are they better off?
by Wayfaerer on Sep 9, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats why I thought you guys and the Brewers might like Jurrjens
its pretty apparent you guys need some pitchers. Just like its pretty apparent my Braves need some impact bats (I think we’ve scored less than 3 runs in 6 straight games now).
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
by mvhsbball on Sep 10, 2009 12:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This simply makes me think...
Prince Fielder and Corey Hart for Jason Heyward and an upper/mid level pitching prospect.
Granted, I’d rather get a very talented young arm in return for Prince, but I like the prospect of having one more incredible bat in the lineup. Still, if we go on with a Prince move, I think we go with the move of locking up McGehee, and then transition Gamel to first.
I love and hate the idea of what this team may turn out to be in 2010 and beyond.
PensBurgh penalty - Lavender - 2 Minutes for Excessive Stanley Cup Raising.
by Lavender on Sep 10, 2009 8:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Braves wont
give up Heyward. He’s the number 1 prospect in the entire game, and they have big OF questions, as well as big bat questions for when he arrives.
With what Fielder is going to be due the next two years, if the Braves did do a Fielder/Heyward deal, it would probbly be straight up, no pitchers involved. And then the Brewers are left in the same spot they are now, except the hitter in return is a couple of years lacking in experience compared to Fielder. The Braves would never do this trade either, but it would be quite equitable if they did Tommy Hanson and Freddie Freeman for Fielder.
by backtocali on Sep 10, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jason Heyward wont be traded.
you dont trade 20year old players who have destroyed every level in the minor leagues (hes in the AAA playoffs now).
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
by mvhsbball on Sep 10, 2009 12:21 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
As a Brewers fan, I’d make the trade I wrote out. As Braves GM Frank Wren, I’d laugh widely on the phone with Doug Melvin and hang up.
My only thought on Braves pitching would be Hanson, but he was thought to be untouchable. I try to think on the basis that no one player is untouchable, but I think there would have to be some heck of a package to deal Tommy Hanson out of Atlanta.
PensBurgh penalty - Lavender - 2 Minutes for Excessive Stanley Cup Raising.
by Lavender on Sep 10, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fielder, Escobar, Parra
for
Hanson, Jurrjens, someone else.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 10, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
we have no need for Alcides Escobar. our shortstop, Yunel Escobar, is one of the most underrated players in the game and is a top 5 SS.
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
by mvhsbball on Sep 11, 2009 2:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking he could shift to 2B
Otherwise, perhaps we could swap Gamel for Alcides Escobar, and you’d have a replacement for Chipper when he retires.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 11, 2009 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could
replace Lawrie with Escobar. But would they ever part with both Hanson and Jurrjens at the same time?
I posted this topic over at BtB and it seems like a straight up Jurrjens for Fielder is the more equitable deal, if not it being highly in favor of the Brewers.
by backtocali on Sep 11, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure I got dumber reading this comment.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 11, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Basis
For this sentiment would be that Prince’s 10 WAR or so will cost about $29 million dollars for 2 years of service, where Jurrjens 12 or so WAR will not cost anywhere near that, and it is for 4 years of service.
by backtocali on Sep 11, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So they'd have to pay more for more WAR/year?
Amazing!
You know me Al.
by TheJay on Sep 11, 2009 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you feel comfortable projecting Jurrjens 4 years from now?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Sep 14, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im not a statistician
But if I use the Pecota projections for him and modify, either up or down based on how their projections have worked for him so far…I believe in the last year I actually had him down below 3 WAR.
Its just as hard to predict Fielder (although the arm injuries are not as much of a concern). Fielder’s weight and durability will always be something that could get in the way of a reliable projection for his potential.
by backtocali on Sep 14, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would totally disagree with this
If you know that Jurrjens is 4, 4, 4, and 4, and Fielder is 6 and 6, of course you take Jurrjens. But by nature pitchers have so much more volatility than hitters. It’s incredibly rare for a great hitter to become a pile of suck in their prime years, bu it’s pretty common for a pitcher to suddenly develop injury problems or ineffectiveness.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Sep 15, 2009 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course you do
but Pecota doesnt think so.
Their projections for the next 4 years are 3.1, 3.5, 3.4 and 2.8. They projected a 3.2 for him this year and he is on pace for 3.5, so a slight upgrade across those 4 years is in order.
And theyre a heck of a lot smarter than the both of us over there.
by backtocali on Sep 15, 2009 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
Not infallible, as is the case with every person who posts here, but to “totally disagree” with them, after proven success and legitimate methodology, is a little bit arrogant.
by backtocali on Sep 16, 2009 8:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's an odd statement
From someone who seems to speak with impunity 99.9% of the time, regardless of what he’s speaking about.
You can say I'm a dreamer - but I'm not the only one.
CounsellWSMVP10!
by kirbir on Sep 16, 2009 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
And it always has to come back to an anti-backtocali thread
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 16, 2009 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not always
If he’s going to continue to attack other people who post on here though, it’s going to make it really difficult for me to feel like I need to get off his case at all. But whatever.
You can say I'm a dreamer - but I'm not the only one.
CounsellWSMVP10!
by kirbir on Sep 16, 2009 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe i read it wrong, but it didn't come off as an attack
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 16, 2009 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is that you can't predict injury
And a pitcher certainly has a higher risk of injury than a hitter. I don’t care how accurate PECOTA is; it cannot predict when a player is going to get hurt.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Sep 16, 2009 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
very good point
and even though the risk isnt as high, there is injury risk for Fielde as well
by backtocali on Sep 16, 2009 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and the Yellowstone Supervolcano could blow at any moment
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 16, 2009 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
But when it does, we will all be sorry.
by backtocali on Sep 17, 2009 6:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
happy happy joy joy
just a ray of sunshine, aren’t you;)
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 17, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My suggestion
Let’s trade the entire MLB roster except for Braun, Gallardo, and McClung for the Braves entire roster except for McCann, Hanson, and Chipper.
I think if we did that, then picked up Dioner Navarro to catch, we’d have a shot at the wild card next year.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 10, 2009 7:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't it be easier to just relocate both franchises? :)
by Zeyes on Sep 10, 2009 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
theres an idea!
maybe we would have more than 25,000 people at our weekend games if we moved back to Milwaukee…
Fans who live in the Atlanta area suck. big time.
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
by mvhsbball on Sep 11, 2009 2:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
25,000 at weekand game, really?
that’s bad, esp. considering the Braves aren’t doing that bad. I thought the 35,000 at the last weekend game I went to was bad
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 11, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, we bring in 30,000 to 35,000 on most weekend, but now we’re out of it, no one really goes.
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
"Wait, bait and bash." - Jason Heyward's personal philosophy.
by mvhsbball on Sep 11, 2009 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s important to have morineko on board when making a deal like this.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 11, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prince's Value
He has produced better than any #4 hitter in baseball, and I sincerely am afraid of what will happen to Braun if Prince were to be jettisoned. Furthermore, JJ the Brave isn’t going to be the chip used by the Braves to tempt us. If any pitcher is going to be moved, it has to be Hanson. Straight-up? Probably not. The Yanks would probably give the Brews Hughes/Jackson/“Prospect Catcher not named after the Christian savior.” The BoSox would probably be amenable to sending us Lars Anderson/Clay Buccholz/Stephen Fife for JJ the Beer/Prince. So while the Braves may claim economics will be the driving force, there are still a good many teams with the economic wherewithal to make a very good offer for the Regal Young Gent. If the Brewer brass is so eager to trade Prince for a pitcher with a similar contract situation (basically, we need a pitcher instead of a hitter…straight-up), go talk to Trader Jack about his King. Otherwise, slap the vegetarian’s booty and ride the wave of power to seemingly endless heights (need I remind anyone this kid is the youngest player ever to hit 50 HR in a season and if not for King Albert, he would be the favorite for the MVP…).
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
by ILuvDaBush on Sep 15, 2009 6:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Its a tough spot
For the Brewers or anyone who might want to pick him up. He is going to make around $27 million over the next two years.
His value, given that salary coming, is not as big as you might think. He is having a great year no doubt, but the Braves arent going to send Hanson anywhere, and King Felix has a value about the same as Fielder’s but I dont think the Mariners are in a position to take on a big salary like Fielder’s. I just get the feeling that the Brewers are not going to be given an offer that will suit them. They will over value him, I bet, and pass on an offer or two, that although not equal, will be better than him walking in FA.
Your offer proposed with Boston seems about the most compatible, if it werent for the fact that they already have a DH and 1B under contract for 2010.
by backtocali on Sep 15, 2009 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
27 million might eliminate a significant amount of small and mid-market teams...
… but I don’t think that number will knock out any more teams than an unidentified number would have. Existing contract or not, everyone knows that Fielder was going to start making huge money soon and there’s a decent chance that’s significantly less than he would have gotten in arbitration. That might mean the pool of teams that would deal for him is fairly shallow, but I don’t think it’s any worse than it would have been just because the costs are fixed for the next two seasons.
Besides, there’s every reason to believe they aren’t going to deal him anyway. If LaPorta were still in the system or if the club appeared to have any confidence in Gamel (right or wrong, it’s fairly obvious that they don’t) it would be easier to shop him around. As things stand I think the chance of dealing him this offseason is relatively small. Much more likely from my perspective is the possibility of dealing him at or near the deadline if the team is out of contention in 2010 or 2011.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 15, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
With you on that.
But dont you think a deal is made if a first baseman is part of the deal? such as a Red Sox trade where they send Anderson along with Buchholz? Or Freeman/Hanson with the Braves?
I dont think he goest this offseason either, but if July 10 has us hovering with aquestionable pitching staff, no doubt in my mind he is dealt. No matter what happens in 10, they have to deal him before 11.
by backtocali on Sep 15, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
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|
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78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
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74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
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62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
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