BCB Community Prospect Rankings: Vote for #5
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 10, 2010 4:00 PM CST
in Minor League Notes
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PrintJonathan Lucroy was the clear winner at #4, so here's where we stand so far:
1. Alcides Escobar
2. Brett Lawrie
3. Mat Gamel
4. Jonathan Lucroy
Here are the nominees for #5:
Eric Arnett
Zach Braddock
Jake Odorizzi
Wily Peralta
Angel Salome
Follow the jump for more on the nominees, then vote in the poll below. Voting will remain open for 24 hours, with voting for #6 opening at 4 pm tomorrow.
Eric Arnett, RHP
Rankings:
John Sickels: 3
Brewerfan.net Power 50: 5
Baseball America: 4
FanGraphs: NR (Rankings ended at 10)
Diamond Futures: 7
Baseball Intellect (preliminary): 2
The Hardball Times: 5
Age: 21
Seasons in minors: 1
Top level reached in 2009: Rookie
2009 Statistics:
Helena (R+): 14 G, 0-4, 4.41 ERA, 34.2 IP, 33 H, 21 BB, 35 K
Zach Braddock, LHP
Rankings:
John Sickels: 11
Brewerfan.net Power 50: 6
Baseball America: 7
FanGraphs: 4
Diamond Futures: 8
Baseball Intellect (preliminary): 6
The Hardball Times: 6
Age: 22
Seasons in minors: 4
Top level reached in 2009: AA
2009 Statistics:
Brevard County (A+): 14 G, 1-1, 1.09 ERA, 24.2 IP, 12 H, 4 BB, 40 K
Huntsville (AA): 12 G, 2-1, 2.87 ERA, 15.2 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 22 K
Jake Odorizzi, RHP
Rankings:
John Sickels: 7
Brewerfan.net Power 50: 13
Baseball America: 9
FanGraphs: 6
Diamond Futures: 10
Baseball Intellect (preliminary): 4
The Hardball Times: 10
Age: 19
Seasons in minors: 2
Top level reached in 2009: Rookie
2009 Statistics:
Helena (R+): 12 G, 1-4, 4.40 ERA, 47 IP, 55 H, 9 BB, 43 K
Wily Peralta, RHP
Rankings:
John Sickels: 8
Brewerfan.net Power 50: 14
Baseball America: 14
FanGraphs: 9
Diamond Futures: 11
Baseball Intellect (preliminary): 5
The Hardball Times: 9
Age: 20
Seasons in minors: 3
Top level reached in 2009: Low A
2009 Statistics:
Wisconsin (A): 17 G, 4-4, 3,47 ERA, 103.2 IP, 91 H, 46 BB, 118 K
Angel Salome, C
Rankings:
John Sickels: 14
Brewerfan.net Power 50: 7
Baseball America: 15
FanGraphs: 10
Diamond Futures: 6
Baseball Intellect (preliminary): 10
The Hardball Times: 7
Age: 23
Seasons in minors: 6
Top level reached in 2009: AAA
2009 Statistics:
Nashville (AAA): 314 PA, .286/.334/.414, 14 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 32 R, 44 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS
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fliawefao;wjfoaw;oiejfaw8e9f9aw8ef9pjaw9jef
Packers :(
"My plan is my plan," Yost said.
that really sucked
and I can’t believe that I have to root for the Cowboys next weekend. Ugh.
"I like Suppan"
- Noah J. on 12/22/09
Well...
… you knew SOMEONE was going to watch film of the Steelers game. It’s sucks, and they still would have won with better ball security, but I’d rather have them flame out now than against the Vikings or the Colts or Chargers in the big one.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 10, 2010 8:29 PM CST up reply actions
No to try and sway the vote
But I’m just not sold on Braddock. He has great stuff but a ton of questions. I think apart from health and mental stability, he is going to have problems with his command. And as you would expect a hitter going from High A to AA to have their numbers drop, the opposite should be true for a pitcher, and Braddock’s numbers decreased. And his AFL numbers left a lot to be desired (again, in a hitters league, against big hitting prospects).
Does anyone know where he is scheduled to start the season? I would guess another trip to AA in April with call ups with good performance at each level.
I’ve got him beneath both Arnett and Odirizzi, FWIW.
Not to make a Yostian argument, but if you take out Braddock’s ugly final AFL appearance he had a 0.77 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Everybody has a bad inning now and again (not that his total of 12 AFL innings is indicative of much anyways). Between A+/AA/AFL, Braddock appeared in 37 games last year and gave up more than 1 ER only twice and walked more than one batter only three times (remove his final AFL game and it’s only once and only twice, respectively).
If you’re still riding him about his control after the 2009 season he had, I’m not sure what he could possibly do to persuade you otherwise.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Not control
Command, being able to throw his pitches where he (or his catcher wants). He was unlucky when he got to AA, but if you throw a lot of bad strikes, they are going to wind up as hits. And that eventually catches up with a pitcher.
I assume he starts the season in AA, and if he can pitch consistently and improve his command, then I will start to have a little more faith in him. But without good command, he’s not going to have a long mlb career, and without superb command, he wont ever be anything but a late inning reliever (but not a closer).
But what’s your reasoning for saying he has bad command? It wasn’t that case that he was putting up his impressive K/9 and K/BB numbers but giving up a lot of runs/hits, all of his peripherals were impeccable. It seems even less the case that he is throwing “bad strikes” because he’s not an overpowering pitcher; if he’s striking batters out it’s because he’s harnessing his command, not because he’s pounding the strikezone with fastballs.
I don’t see why you discount Braddock for only pitching as high as AA but then rank Arnett (who wasn’t all that spectacular in A) and Odirizzi (who hasn’t even had a chance to pitch above rookie ball yet) above him. Seems like it might be a case of ranking draft pick/reputation above performance/actual potential.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Im not saying
He has bad command, but that its something he needs to work on. If you have the fastball/slider that this kid does, youre going to strike people out at a pretty good clip normally, even if youre throwing “bad strikes”. And of course your BB numbers will be low if you throw lots of strikes.
He is an overpowering pitcher (wasnt quite sure in the way that sentence was written) a LHP with his fastball and slider is a power pitcher, throw his frame and plane…
I put him beneath the other two because he is a relief pitcher, who hasnt proven to me yet that he is worthy of a high ranking. Arnett and Odirizzi have much higher ceilings than Braddock does, and for cases like them, you cant really go too much on results, but more on stuff/potential.
By “overpowering pitcher” I mean a guy who throws in the high 90s and survives by just throwing past hitters. Those are the kind of guys who can’t survive at a competitive level if they lose their control and can’t get the ball through the strikezone anymore (see: Turnbow, Derrick) but who don’t always need great command within the strikezone.
Braddock isn’t that type of pitcher. From what I’ve read/heard, his decent fastball is in the lower 90s but is paired with an excellent slider (and a change-up too, I think?). He’s the type of pitcher that relies on command just as much as control (if we’re distinguishing between the two). If he didn’t already show both excellent command and control last year, he wouldn’t have put up the numbers he did.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
What does this mean?
And as you would expect a hitter going from High A to AA to have their numbers drop, the opposite should be true for a pitcher, and Braddock’s numbers decreased.
Pitchers moving up a level should improve?
You're saying he got worse?
15.2 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 22 K in AA, what do you want him to do? I buy the injury risk and reliever factors, but I don’t get criticizing his production. For the record I voted for Arnett, but I don’t get this argument.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I wouldnt go so far as "worse"
But there is a downward trend there, and a few things that would concern me, if I were in charge.
Granted, we’re only looking at about 28 innings between AA and AFL ball, but that’s about half a season. And in those innings I see a higher than average batting average against, a drop in K/9, and a slight increas in BB/9. There’s some bad luck in there too, I am just saying that he definitely needs some more time in AA ball to see if these things improve, and I definitely dont think that numbers like that, from a relief pitcher with health issues, would merit a #4 ranking on many teams’ prospect lists.
Jay, as far as proof, its one of those “good pitching always has the advantage over good hitting” arguments. I cant prove it with numbers, although it can probably be done, just not by me. Figure that even a bad pitcher is going to be successful at least 6 out 10 times. When you get to AA and AAA those are the pitchers that know how to pitch, have learned a little here and there and can do things to fool hitters or not solely rely on stuff. So I guess my argument, as thin as it may be without numbers is that if you have that 6 of 10 chance of success right off the bat, throw in inexperienced hitters and that “knowing how to pitch” end of things, and you should expect good pitchers to improve a bit in the jump from A ball to AA, and at the very least guys who are considered top prospects to improve as well.
Not every hitter in AA is inexperienced
Sure, the guys that jump up a level are, but there are plenty of minor league vets & AA repeats as well. I would think pitchers jumping up to AA for the first time would have an adjustment period just like the hitters. Good pitchers may know how to pitch, etc., but there are more patient and better hitters at the AA level.
Very good point
I just see a trend, short term as it may be, that make me think twice about him. If he can repeat the numbers he had in A ball this year in AA I will then be on board with him being an effective late inning guy.
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