Brewer Marcel Projections for 2010
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 12, 2010 5:10 PM CST
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintTom Tango has released his Marcel projections for 2010. Follow the link for an in-depth explanation of what they are (and aren't). If you're not into following links, here's a paragraph that sums it up nicely:
Actually, it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.
Without further adieu, here's a look at 15 position players who could play a significant role for the 2010 Brewers, sorted by wOBA:
| Player | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | K | wOBA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Prince Fielder | 629 | 88 | 153 | 30 | 2 | 37 | 106 | 3 | 2 | 85 | 118 | .399 | .290 | .397 | .564 |
| Ryan Braun | 620 | 95 | 171 | 34 | 6 | 32 | 100 | 16 | 5 | 46 | 117 | .389 | .304 | .365 | .557 |
| Casey McGehee | 400 | 54 | 103 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 70 | .351 | .287 | .352 | .465 |
| Rickie Weeks | 337 | 53 | 71 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 40 | 72 | .346 | .247 | .353 | .436 |
| Mat Gamel | 274 | 29 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 66 | .341 | .267 | .351 | .438 |
| Corey Hart | 502 | 65 | 123 | 29 | 5 | 16 | 63 | 16 | 6 | 35 | 91 | .340 | .272 | .332 | .464 |
| Angel Salome | 200 | 25 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 34 | .340 | .270 | .343 | .438 |
| Alcides Escobar | 267 | 37 | 70 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 42 | .339 | .290 | .350 | .427 |
| Hernan Iribarren | 208 | 25 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 38 | .331 | .265 | .340 | .416 |
| George Kottaras | 254 | 33 | 58 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 49 | .329 | .259 | .336 | .424 |
| Trent Oeltjen | 236 | 31 | 56 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 41 | .327 | .263 | .323 | .437 |
| Jody Gerut | 385 | 49 | 91 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 29 | 60 | .323 | .259 | .318 | .430 |
| Gregg Zaun | 377 | 41 | 80 | 19 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 42 | 61 | .321 | .244 | .335 | .390 |
| Craig Counsell | 460 | 52 | 98 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 5 | 3 | 49 | 67 | .309 | .246 | .336 | .353 |
| Luis Cruz | 246 | 26 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 32 | .305 | .256 | .326 | .365 |
| Carlos Gomez |
436 | 58 | 101 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 27 | 91 | .300 | .254 | .309 | .369 |
Follow the jump for the pitchers!
Here are the pitchers, sorted by projected innings:
| Pitcher | IP | W | L | S | H | ER | ERA | HR | K | BB |
| Randy Wolf | 186 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 174 | 79 | 3.85 | 21 | 147 | 63 |
| Jeff Suppan | 159 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 185 | 86 | 5.15 | 22 | 89 | 66 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 154 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 131 | 62 | 3.65 | 16 | 157 | 67 |
| Manny Parra | 144 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 161 | 80 | 5.09 | 17 | 122 | 68 |
| Dave Bush | 134 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 136 | 73 | 4.67 | 19 | 96 | 41 |
| Carlos Villanueva | 88 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 87 | 43 | 4.35 | 12 | 76 | 32 |
| Mike Burns | 69 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 74 | 37 | 4.83 | 10 | 53 | 26 |
| Todd Coffey | 69 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 69 | 29 | 3.98 | 8 | 53 | 23 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 63 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 3.79 | 6 | 46 | 22 |
| Chris Waters | 61 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 63 | 32 | 4.72 | 9 | 40 | 25 |
| Trevor Hoffman | 57 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 50 | 22 | 3.39 | 5 | 47 | 18 |
| Claudio Vargas | 56 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 52 | 25 | 3.94 | 6 | 42 | 22 |
| Chris Narveson | 55 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 25 | 4.25 | 7 | 47 | 21 |
| Chris Smith | 50 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 48 | 25 | 4.50 | 8 | 39 | 20 |
| Mitch Stetter | 50 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 22 | 4.05 | 5 | 45 | 25 |
| Mark Mulder | 45 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 47 | 23 | 4.60 | 5 | 34 | 19 |
| Kameron Loe | 42 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 46 | 21 | 4.61 | 5 | 30 | 16 |
| David Riske | 30 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 14 | 4.20 | 3 | 22 | 13 |
| John Axford | 29 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 13 | 4.03 | 3 | 24 | 12 |
| Tim Dillard | 29 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 14 | 4.34 | 3 | 21 | 12 |
| Josh Butler | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 13 | 4.50 | 3 | 22 | 12 |
And, while I'm here, here are a few guys that we're talking about a fair amount lately:
| Player | IP | W | L | S | H | ER | ERA | HR | K | BB |
| Jon Garland | 182 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 198 | 86 | 4.38 | 20 | 102 | 58 |
| Doug Davis | 176 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 183 | 83 | 4.53 | 20 | 131 | 85 |
| Jarrod Washburn | 163 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 167 | 78 | 4.36 | 22 | 98 | 54 |
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If he does it over 500 PAs, I would join you
If he does it over 267 as projected, I will need to update my screen name.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Jan 12, 2010 5:45 PM CST up reply actions
It's a league average
We shouldn’t have rookies on here. It’s the line he put up last year plus about 800 average plate appearances. Don’t even look at a Marcel for a player with less than 600 plate appearances in the majors, because it will tell you absolutely nothing. For example, check Angel Salome’s line— it’s exactly league average. This is not looking at minor league numbers.
And definitely don’t look at the plate appearances projection. I tell everyone to ignore them in any other system, and a simple Marcel like this is only a weighted average. It means absolutely nothing.
Again: the lines for Gamel, Escobar, and Salome, and even McGehee, mean little to nothing here. Whatever they did last year in the majors, add a ton of exactly average plate appearances to it and you get the Marcel. If Marcel projected Brent Brewer, it would be for a line of .270/.343/.438.
Same goes for the pitchers.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
If Marcel projected Carlos George
It would be for a line of .270/.343/.438 and 113 errors.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 12, 2010 6:34 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That would be quite an offense
Also, it’s weird that only one of our 5 starters would have an ERA between 4 and 5.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Interesting to compare Marcel hitting projections vs. CHONE
Aside from the guys without enough major league PA to really qualify (as Jordan notes above), on first glance it looks like CHONE projects everybody on the roster to actually be a fair bit better than Marcel, except for Zaun and Counsell (probably because CHONE seems to heavily factor in age) and maybe Hart (Marcel gives Hart more power, but CHONE gives him a slightly better OBP). Other than that, CHONE likes everybody better.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
League average for a MLB player
was .262/.333/.418/.751 in 2009. .271/.328/.394/.721 for a SS. No idea where the projection for Escobar comes from. I think he might be able to put up a line similar to an average MLB SS with a higher BA.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
As Jordan noted above
The Escobar projection is what he did in the majors plus a bunch of average MLB PA. I would guess the average MLB line is determined by looking at the last three years with pitchers removed.
Even with pitchers removed
the average MLB player doesn’t hit that well.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Shrug
Then I don’t know. I suspect the limited number of PA and AB for players with little or no service time make the average look a little off. If Salome had one fewer hit, he would be at .264/.337/.433, which looks closer to the league average excluding pitchers. If he had the same number of hits and one fewer HR, it would be .270/.343/.421. I think it’s just rounding while prorating guys like Salome to only 200 PA that makes the average look high. Maybe I’m wrong though.
For Clarification Purposes
It regresses towards the mean.
Does this mean that for all players there will be a regression from the previous years numbers? If so, wouldn’t this hinder your above-average young players who are typically improving/progressing, not regressing, leading to relatively conservative or underestimated projections for guys like Braun, Fielder and Gallardo?
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
Yeah
Marcel isn’t even a projection system really, it’s a weighted average of past production pulled back (or up) towards league average.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Gotcha
So it’s going to tend to grag down above average players and drag up below average players to a certain extent.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Jan 13, 2010 5:52 PM CST up reply actions
Exactly
That’s pretty much the definition of “regressing to the mean”. People tend to think that it means a .300 hitter is bound to hit .240 to the next year to balance out to average. That’s not it, it means he’s probably best projected to hit about .285.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
HAAAAA
I am willing to bet my house that Casey McGehee and Jody Gerut don’t hit 27 home runs between the two of them this year. Seriously. It’s a really nice house. Anyone?
www.inbetweenhops.com
Wow
Really? I mean, maybe you don’t think they’ll perform all that well, but they probably project to roughly 850 PAs this season, so betting your house against them hitting a HR every 31 PAs seems a little steep.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
It depends
Can I take your wager, and put nothing up on my side?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 13, 2010 10:43 PM CST up reply actions
re: Wow
Well KL, let me put it like this. How do I say this nicely…? I just find something a little bit “unnatural” about how Casey McGehee showed a power stroke last year that he never had at any point in his career and how Jody Gerut all of the sudden hit 14 HRs for SD in ‘07 after being out of the game for 2 years. It tells me that the numbers they put up were either a complete fluke… or not. And if not… Let’s just say I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt by thinking they were a fluke.
Chalie: Would you like to practice owning this place by picking up my property tax bill this year? :)jk
www.inbetweenhops.com
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