Brewer Marcel Projections for 2010

by Kyle Lobner on Jan 12, 2010 5:10 PM CST in Statistical Analysis Comment 19 comments

Tom Tango has released his Marcel projections for 2010. Follow the link for an in-depth explanation of what they are (and aren't). If you're not into following links, here's a paragraph that sums it up nicely:

Actually, it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.

Without further adieu, here's a look at 15 position players who could play a significant role for the 2010 Brewers, sorted by wOBA:

Player	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	K	wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG
Prince Fielder	629	88	153	30	2	37	106	3	2	85	118	.399	.290	.397	.564
Ryan Braun	620	95	171	34	6	32	100	16	5	46	117	.389	.304	.365	.557
Casey McGehee	400	54	103	20	1	14	60	2	2	34	70	.351	.287	.352	.465
Rickie Weeks	337	53	71	13	4	11	32	11	3	40	72	.346	.247	.353	.436
Mat Gamel	274	29	64	13	2	8	35	4	1	29	66	.341	.267	.351	.438
Corey Hart	502	65	123	29	5	16	63	16	6	35	91	.340	.272	.332	.464
Angel Salome	200	25	48	10	1	6	24	3	1	18	34	.340	.270	.343	.438
Alcides Escobar	267	37	70	11	1	5	24	6	2	19	42	.339	.290	.350	.427
Hernan Iribarren	208	25	49	11	1	5	24	3	1	19	38	.331	.265	.340	.416
George Kottaras	254	33	58	17	1	6	28	3	1	24	49	.329	.259	.336	.424
Trent Oeltjen	236	31	56	12	2	7	24	5	2	17	41	.327	.263	.323	.437
Jody Gerut	385	49	91	17	2	13	45	7	3	29	60	.323	.259	.318	.430
Gregg Zaun	377	41	80	19	1	9	40	2	2	42	61	.321	.244	.335	.390
Craig Counsell	460	52	98	20	4	5	36	5	3	49	67	.309	.246	.336	.353
Luis Cruz	246	26	56	10	1	4	21	3	1	20	32	.305	.256	.326	.365
Carlos Gomez	436	58	101	18	5	6	42	20	7	27	91	.300	.254	.309	.369

Follow the jump for the pitchers!

Here are the pitchers, sorted by projected innings:

Pitcher	IP	W	L	S	H	ER	ERA	HR	K	BB
Randy Wolf	186	11	9	0	174	79	3.85	21	147	63
Jeff Suppan	159	8	10	0	185	86	5.15	22	89	66
Yovani Gallardo	154	10	9	0	131	62	3.65	16	157	67
Manny Parra	144	9	9	0	161	80	5.09	17	122	68
Dave Bush	134	7	8	0	136	73	4.67	19	96	41
Carlos Villanueva	88	4	6	1	87	43	4.35	12	76	32
Mike Burns	69	4	5	0	74	37	4.83	10	53	26
Todd Coffey	69	3	3	1	69	29	3.98	8	53	23
LaTroy Hawkins	63	2	3	4	61	25	3.79	6	46	22
Chris Waters	61	3	4	0	63	32	4.72	9	40	25
Trevor Hoffman	57	3	4	26	50	22	3.39	5	47	18
Claudio Vargas	56	3	2	0	52	25	3.94	6	42	22
Chris Narveson	55	3	2	0	54	25	4.25	7	47	21
Chris Smith	50	2	2	0	48	25	4.50	8	39	20
Mitch Stetter	50	4	2	0	44	22	4.05	5	45	25
Mark Mulder	45	2	3	0	47	23	4.60	5	34	19
Kameron Loe	42	2	2	0	46	21	4.61	5	30	16
David Riske	30	1	2	1	30	14	4.20	3	22	13
John Axford	29	1	1	1	27	13	4.03	3	24	12
Tim Dillard	29	1	2	0	29	14	4.34	3	21	12
Josh Butler	27	1	1	0	27	13	4.50	3	22	12

And, while I'm here, here are a few guys that we're talking about a fair amount lately:

Player	IP	W	L	S	H	ER	ERA	HR	K	BB
Jon Garland	182	10	10	0	198	86	4.38	20	102	58
Doug Davis	176	9	11	0	183	83	4.53	20	131	85
Jarrod Washburn	163	8	11	0	167	78	4.36	22	98	54

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Comments

If Escobar puts up that line

I will pee myself.

by cwolf20 on Jan 12, 2010 5:34 PM CST reply actions

I thought the same thing.

by NoahJ on Jan 12, 2010 5:43 PM CST up reply actions

If he does it over 500 PAs, I would join you

If he does it over 267 as projected, I will need to update my screen name.

When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved

by Getting Yosted on Jan 12, 2010 5:45 PM CST up reply actions

It's a league average

We shouldn’t have rookies on here. It’s the line he put up last year plus about 800 average plate appearances. Don’t even look at a Marcel for a player with less than 600 plate appearances in the majors, because it will tell you absolutely nothing. For example, check Angel Salome’s line— it’s exactly league average. This is not looking at minor league numbers.

And definitely don’t look at the plate appearances projection. I tell everyone to ignore them in any other system, and a simple Marcel like this is only a weighted average. It means absolutely nothing.

Again: the lines for Gamel, Escobar, and Salome, and even McGehee, mean little to nothing here. Whatever they did last year in the majors, add a ton of exactly average plate appearances to it and you get the Marcel. If Marcel projected Brent Brewer, it would be for a line of .270/.343/.438.

Same goes for the pitchers.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Jan 12, 2010 6:03 PM CST up reply actions

If Marcel projected Carlos George

It would be for a line of .270/.343/.438 and 113 errors.

by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 12, 2010 6:34 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

That would be quite an offense

Also, it’s weird that only one of our 5 starters would have an ERA between 4 and 5.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jan 12, 2010 6:01 PM CST reply actions

Interesting to compare Marcel hitting projections vs. CHONE

Aside from the guys without enough major league PA to really qualify (as Jordan notes above), on first glance it looks like CHONE projects everybody on the roster to actually be a fair bit better than Marcel, except for Zaun and Counsell (probably because CHONE seems to heavily factor in age) and maybe Hart (Marcel gives Hart more power, but CHONE gives him a slightly better OBP). Other than that, CHONE likes everybody better.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Jan 12, 2010 6:37 PM CST reply actions

League average for a MLB player

was .262/.333/.418/.751 in 2009. .271/.328/.394/.721 for a SS. No idea where the projection for Escobar comes from. I think he might be able to put up a line similar to an average MLB SS with a higher BA.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jan 13, 2010 12:57 AM CST reply actions

As Jordan noted above

The Escobar projection is what he did in the majors plus a bunch of average MLB PA. I would guess the average MLB line is determined by looking at the last three years with pitchers removed.

by TheJay on Jan 13, 2010 7:45 AM CST up reply actions

Even with pitchers removed

the average MLB player doesn’t hit that well.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jan 13, 2010 1:51 PM CST up reply actions

Shrug

Then I don’t know. I suspect the limited number of PA and AB for players with little or no service time make the average look a little off. If Salome had one fewer hit, he would be at .264/.337/.433, which looks closer to the league average excluding pitchers. If he had the same number of hits and one fewer HR, it would be .270/.343/.421. I think it’s just rounding while prorating guys like Salome to only 200 PA that makes the average look high. Maybe I’m wrong though.

by TheJay on Jan 13, 2010 7:51 PM CST up reply actions

For Clarification Purposes

It regresses towards the mean.

Does this mean that for all players there will be a regression from the previous years numbers? If so, wouldn’t this hinder your above-average young players who are typically improving/progressing, not regressing, leading to relatively conservative or underestimated projections for guys like Braun, Fielder and Gallardo?

BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.

by MadJimiBrewha on Jan 13, 2010 12:08 PM CST reply actions

Yeah

Marcel isn’t even a projection system really, it’s a weighted average of past production pulled back (or up) towards league average.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Jan 13, 2010 2:55 PM CST up reply actions

Gotcha

So it’s going to tend to grag down above average players and drag up below average players to a certain extent.

BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.

by MadJimiBrewha on Jan 13, 2010 5:52 PM CST up reply actions

Exactly

That’s pretty much the definition of “regressing to the mean”. People tend to think that it means a .300 hitter is bound to hit .240 to the next year to balance out to average. That’s not it, it means he’s probably best projected to hit about .285.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Jan 13, 2010 6:00 PM CST up reply actions

HAAAAA

I am willing to bet my house that Casey McGehee and Jody Gerut don’t hit 27 home runs between the two of them this year. Seriously. It’s a really nice house. Anyone?

www.inbetweenhops.com

by Scott Segrin on Jan 13, 2010 6:45 PM CST reply actions

Wow

Really? I mean, maybe you don’t think they’ll perform all that well, but they probably project to roughly 850 PAs this season, so betting your house against them hitting a HR every 31 PAs seems a little steep.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Jan 13, 2010 9:55 PM CST up reply actions

It depends

Can I take your wager, and put nothing up on my side?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 13, 2010 10:43 PM CST up reply actions

re: Wow

Well KL, let me put it like this. How do I say this nicely…? I just find something a little bit “unnatural” about how Casey McGehee showed a power stroke last year that he never had at any point in his career and how Jody Gerut all of the sudden hit 14 HRs for SD in ‘07 after being out of the game for 2 years. It tells me that the numbers they put up were either a complete fluke… or not. And if not… Let’s just say I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt by thinking they were a fluke.

Chalie: Would you like to practice owning this place by picking up my property tax bill this year? :)jk

www.inbetweenhops.com

by Scott Segrin on Jan 14, 2010 7:18 AM CST reply actions

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