Thursday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 21, 2010 9:29 AM CST
in News
168 comments
Some things to read while shaking the devil off (h/t Daily Drink).
I don't think it'd be overstating it to call yesterday one of the biggest days of the offseason, as the Brewers agreed to terms with Doug Davis, acquiring the second starter Doug Melvin acknowledged needing at the start of the offseason (FanShot). Davis is guaranteed $4.25 million for 2010, with a team option with a $1 million buyout for 2011. I know not everyone's excited about Davis' walk totals and left-handedness, but getting a pitcher who can be penciled in for 180 or so innings at league average-or-better ERA at this price is a pretty good deal.
Now that the front office has come through with a second starting pitcher at a reasonable price, I'm actually pretty happy with the way the offseason has turned out. I'm still disappointed the Brewers couldn't get more for J.J. Hardy, and I still think they're overspending on an unnecessary part in LaTroy Hawkins, but those moves are overshadowed a bit by accomplishing the offseason's biggest goal: improving the starting pitching.
Here are some other reactions from around the web:
- Tom Haudricourt has quotes from Davis, who says he's "happy to be back" and reminds us that he was a Doug Melvin draft pick in Texas.
- Fire Doug Melvin is willing to shut down the site, apologize, grow a mustache and register ExtendDougMelvin.com if the Brewers follow up this move by releasing Jeff Suppan.
- The Grand National Championships projected Davis for a 13-9, 3.80 ERA season and gives the move a B+.
- Wisconsin Sports Tap likes the deal.
- Jerry Crasnick of ESPN noted that Davis has made the sixth most starts in baseball since the start of the 2004 season.
- As luck would have it, yesterday was Doug Davis' day in Baseball Musings' Players A to Z series. David Pinto says he "could see him putting together a great won-loss record on a good team."
- Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times notes that Davis' cut fastball was his only pitch with a positive run value in 2009.
- Brewed Sports doesn't like what this move says about the way the front office is operating.
- Keep Turning Up the Heat! says this move isn't going to cut it.
Moving forward, the Davis signing creates an interesting camp situation for the Brewers, who now have six starting pitchers for five spots. I took a swing at predicting the outcome yesterday, and I don't think the news is very good for Dave Bush.
Meanwhile, Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases has a look at the Brewer depth chart, as it presently stands. He agrees with me regarding Dave Bush being the odd man out in the rotation, and still thinks the Brewers will grab another outfielder on the cheap before spring training,
Overshadowed by this announcement was the unveiling of the plans for the Brewers' season-long celebration of their 40th anniversary. Four retro nights with special bobbleheads are in the works, with one celebrating each decade of the Brewers' existence in Milwaukee. Not to be outdone, of course, The Former Hackers have a look at some alternate bobbleheads and Rubie Q has a look at some other jersey options.
Before the Davis signing was announced, Viva El Birdos took a look at the Brewers are part of their NL Central Offseason Revue series. They projected the Brewers for roughly 85 wins and a third place finish.
I guess it's true the Brewers are in the top half, but I'm not sure I'd consider it "elite company." Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated calculated the dollars spent per win for each MLB team in the 2000's, and the Brewers finished ninth behind the Marlins, Rays, Twins, A's, Pirates, Nationals, Royals and Padres.
In the minors:
- Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally has his top 30 MLB prospects up at Jonathan Mayo's blog, and he has Alcides Escobar 15th.
- Escobar will also receive an award for being 2009's best Nashville Sound at Friday's Old Timers Baseball Association banquet.
Around baseball:
Angels: Signed Joel Pineiro to a two year, $16 million deal.
Astros: Jason Bourgeois, designated for assignment last week, has cleared waivers and accepted an assignment to the minors with an invitation to spring training. They also signed outfielder Cory Sullivan to a minor league deal.
Blue Jays: Acquired reliever Merkin Valdez from the Giants for cash considerations.
Mariners: Avoided arbitration with Brandon League, who will earn $1.0875 million in 2010.
Pirates: Signed Octavio Dotel to a one year deal believed to be worth around $3 million.
Rockies: Signed outfielder Jay Payton to a minor league deal.
As we continue the discussion of who should stay and go in the Brewer rotation, this economic concept becomes increasingly relevant: Red Reporter uses the contract of Willy Taveras to define a "sunk cost." One could just as easily use Jeff Suppan.
Actually, since "send Suppan to the bullpen" seems to be a popular response to the logjam, this might be relevant too: Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff Sackmann has a system to predict which starting pitchers might be more effective in the bullpen.
Do you have some experience with databases and the desire to work in baseball? FanGraphs might have a lead for you.
In a few short weeks, pitchers and catchers will report to modern, state of the art facilities in Florida and Arizona to prepare for the season. Those parks weren't always so fancy, though: Hal McCoy remembers how spring training used to be, and shares some memories from Grapefruit Leagues past.
On this day in 2002, the Brewers pulled off an ill-fated three team trade, sending Jeromy Burnitz, Lou Collier, Jeff D'Amico and Mark Sweeney to the Mets in exchange for pinch hitter Lenny Harris, pitcher Glendon Rusch and outfielder Alex Ochoa. Rusch went 11-28 with a 5.34 ERA over two seasons as a Brewer.
Happy birthday today to:
- 2009 Timber Rattler Shawn Zarraga, who turns 21.
- 1901 Milwaukee Brewer Irv Waldron, who would have turned 138.
Oh, and if you just can't get enough of me, I'll also be on hotstove.com at 1 pm Central today to discuss the Doug Davis deal and the Brewer offseason.
Drink up.
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Ideally
Suppan is shown the door.
Realistically, it will probably be Bush. Jim Breen over at Bernie’s Crew thinks it will be Suppan. He makes the entirely relevant and valid point that Dave Bush is actually a better pitcher than Suppan.
I guess it all depends on Mark A.’s willingness or unwillingness to view the contract dollars Suppan is getting as a sunk cost.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
I will pitch for the league minimum.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
The problem with viewing Suppan as a sunk cost
Is that you’re only looking at one side of the equation.
If the question is Bush v. Suppan, and one has to go, then your options are:
Keep Bush and spend an extra $3 million, or
Keep Suppan and have added payroll flexibility.
So, in this case, Suppan isn’t entirely a sunk cost, because he’s an alternative to a player that could be jettisoned for cost savings. So the question becomes which is more valuable: Suppan + (midseason acquisition) or Bush?
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 21, 2010 10:24 AM CST up reply actions
that's assuming there'd be a midseason acquisition
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
Well, two years ago there was Ray Durham
Last year there was Felipe Lopez. So we do have an established trend there.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 21, 2010 10:29 AM CST up reply actions
I remember someone else getting acquired at midseason two years ago...
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 21, 2010 6:58 PM CST up reply actions
The Brewers traded for Scott Linebrink in 2007.
So that actually makes it at least three years in a row.
And that the budget cannot be stretched beyond where it is at this moment
I have a feeling additional payroll room might suddenly appear in July even if Suppan is the one cut in March.
I hope you're both right
Though, I would really like to keep Bush. Can’t I have my cake and eat it too for once?
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
If you keep Suppan around, that midseason acquisition very well might be:
Trade Prince and Davis for a handfull of prospects.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
It makes little or no sense
to get rid of either Bush or Suppan. We are not going to get through the season with only 5-6 pitchers. Only 2 teams used fewer than 9 different pitchers to start games in 2009. The Braves(8) and the Rays(7). Unfortunately Suppan and Bush are both better than any of our minor leagues. Sure we could save money by cutting Bush but there we will be halfway through the season down to 4 pitchers and needing Burns to come in and not suck like he did last year. Right now we have The following guys and will probably need all of them plus at least a guy or two more to start at some point during the season.
Gallardo
Wolf
Davis
Bush
Parra
Suppan
Narveson
In my opinion, our best option would be to try and sneak Parra and/or Narveson into AAA.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
You're not going to be able to "sneak" Parra to AAA.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
There is just no love for Chris Capuano.
How quickly people forget (that he’s healthy and still with the team).
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
We're not sure he's healthy.
See my comment below about him not having pitched more than two innings or to batters above rookie ball.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 21, 2010 11:50 AM CST up reply actions
He did pitch in spring training in 2008
In fact, I was at one of his starts. He just didn’t pitch very well.
I agree with you, except for the last sentence.
If you’re getting rid of Bush, you could be making a big mistake, and end up out of contention by August, depending on how injuries go. At that point, you have to seriously consider trading Prince, Wolf, Davis..
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Actually, no
Jeff Suppan has brought negative WAR to this team the past two years running, with last year being worse than 2008. In 2008, Suppan pitched to the tune of -2.6 Runs Above Replacement. Last year, he was -7.1 Runs Above Replacement. By definition, if your Runs Above Replacement value is negative, you are pitching worse than a replacement level pitcher would. Therefore, your statement that Jeff Suppan is better than anything we have in the minors (or just signed, like Halama, Loe, that one other guy, Capuano or Butler) is false.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 21, 2010 8:25 PM CST up reply actions
Suppan may have had negative value, but nobody we brought in except Narveson pitched better than Suppan did last year.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
So?
I’d say Cody, Butler, Narveson, Loe, and Halama all could out-pitch him.
You understand what replacement is, right?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 21, 2010 10:49 PM CST up reply actions
Freely available talent. Doesn’t mean any of the guys you mentioned are replacement level pitchers. Narveson is the only one who has out pitched Suppan and that was only over 4 starts in September.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Theoretically we should be able to find replacement players easily. In reality, that isn’t the case.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
by cooper82 on Jan 22, 2010 1:03 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Replacement level
Is some dude, generally a AAA player that steps in in case of emergency and/or necessity. ERA usually slightly above 5.
Are you telling me you don’t think one guy in the minors can pitch to that tune? (which, by the way, is better than what Suppan has put up the past two years)
I would also be interested in knowing whether you think that last year’s pitching staff pitched to their ability level, or whether they are due a correction towards the mean. If you DO believe that’s the case, then I am having a very difficult time understanding why you don’t think any of the replacement pitchers, particularly in the group I listed, can pitch better than Suppan.
This is really a moot point, as the fact of the matter is that Suppan IS BELOW REPLACEMENT LEVEL, and the guys listed ARE REPLACEMENT LEVEL.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 22, 2010 8:21 AM CST up reply actions
What?
Freely available talent. Doesn’t mean any of the guys you mentioned are replacement level pitchers. Narveson is the only one who has out pitched Suppan and that was only over 4 starts in September.
Oooooh your strawman is that because, say, Cody hasn’t ever pitched in the majors you can’t say he’s ‘replacement level’? Or that because Halama and Loe haven’t pitched in the majors in years that you can’t say they’re ‘replacement level’? Or that because Narveson’s sample size is so small you can’t say he’s ‘replacement level’?
What a terrible argument, and one that’s unsupportable given the definition of replacement.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 22, 2010 8:24 AM CST up reply actions
Replcement level is 80% of production you would expect from an average MLB player.
Cody didn’t handle the the move from AA to AAA well last year. You are making the assumption those guys are replacement level.
Narveson never made it further than 3 deep a third time through an order in any game. Part of that was probably because he wasn’t stretched out.
Your argument is that any guy in AAA should be able to pitch at a replacement level. Like I said, as we saw last year that isn’t always the case. You are making an assumption that any guy in AAA can be replacement level. What I am saying is that there is no guarantee that is the case.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
You're making the assumption that Suppan is going to reverse his trend.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 22, 2010 2:11 PM CST up reply actions
It's hard not to be satisfied with the Brewers offseason
when you see what’s going on around the league. The Dodgers are kicking the tires on Looper and trying to re-sign Padilla? The Angels gave Piniero $16 million? Yikes. Pitching-wise, Wolf and Davis are about the best we could do.
small market?
the brewers being at $85 million in payroll got me thinking. (i was debating about putting together a fanpost on this, but i’m not sure when i’ll have time.) basically the concept is whether we can really call the brewers a small market team if they’re spending $80-90 million on payroll.
i think “market” in a baseball sense is a function of two things: population (and probably large corporates in the area), as well as that population’s propensity to spend on MLB.
the brewers may have a small MSA, and thus be an inherently “small market team”, but the population’s propensity to spend has increased significantly since the ’90’s, which led to increased revenues and, ultimately, payroll for the brewers.
boston has a middling MSA (maybe slightly higher if you include more of new england), but i think we’d consider them “large market”, due to their revenues and payroll. so i think teams may be inherently one thing, but have a chance to “flex up” a notch if they can drive fan interest, which the brewers have.
Sustainability
I think is the key here. Yes we can probably sustain a 90M payroll for a few years as fan buy in would be decent enough to bridge some of the gap. But if the Brewers go with a 90M payroll and tank, you know damn well that the fans won’t buy and the team will suffer. Boston can spend like nuts and not worry as much.
But Milwaukee is desperate for a winner, if they come storming out the gates we’ll easily cover the 90M payroll gap.
Payroll and Market Size are different things completely.
As are revenues.
Sure, payroll and revenue are a function of market share, but there’s many more significant variables in the equation.
i think "market" in a baseball sense is a function of two things: population (and probably large corporates in the area), as well as that population’s propensity to spend on MLB.
That’s an interesting way to look at it. Gives me an idea….
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Sorry to ruin the party, but...
The Doug Davis signing really bummed me out. It suggests that Doug Melvin spends little time looking at a player’s statistics before making a signing. This is the same mistake we made with Suppan, Jeffrey Hammonds, et al – all signings where the player performed exactly as he did in the past but were still disasters for the Brewers, who expected something different just because they were overpaying the guy.
Consider the following: WHIP is generally regarded as a metric of a pitcher’s quality. For example, the starting pitchers with the best four WHIPs in the NL last year were Lincecum, Vazquez, Haren and Carpenter – and all four finished in the top 5 in last year’s Cy Young voting. In contrast, the worst WHIPs in the league were posted by, in order: 1) Manny Parra (who amazingly posted the worst WHIP seen in the NL by a pitcher throwing at least 140 innings since 1930), 2) Jeff Suppan and 7) Doug Davis. Davis was also led the league in walks and had the worst K/BB rate among starting pitchers.
There were nine pitchers in the NL last year that walked more than four guys per nine innings and now four of them (Davis, Parra, Suppan and Gallardo) are potentially in our starting rotation. This is not how you win games. Who cares if Davis is an "innings eater" when his body of work is so poor?
And don’t think that it was a signing on the cheap. The base salary is $4.25 m, but there are $2 m in “easily reachable” (per Haudricourt) incentives (it is likely that all DD has to do is stay relatively healthy, not pitch well) and if he sucks, we have to buy him out for another $1 m to get out of the deal. So, it’s more like a one-year deal for $7.25 m. When you consider that Rich Harden signed for one year and $7.5 m, Brad Penny for one year and $7 m, it makes the siging look a lot less attractive.
It’s funny to hear how we can’t afford to pay Prince $20 m per year, yet we will likely be spending $20 m this year on Suppan and Davis, two of the worst starting pitchers in the league.
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 10:31 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Hammonds definitely wasn't a DM signing.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 21, 2010 10:32 AM CST up reply actions
There's a few holes in here, I'll take one.
Spending $20M PER year on Prince is no where NEAR the same thing as spending 20M THIS year on Suppan/Davis
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
What's your point?
Mine is that it is hard to say you can’t afford a $20 m player when that much cash is spent on two guys who, statistically speaking, are among the worst starting pitchers in the league.
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 10:52 AM CST up reply actions
based on your hand picked statistic.
What pitcher out there did you want to sign?
Sheets, who will probably get hurt and cost more than Davis?
Pinero, who is worse than davis and got WAY more money than him?
Bedard, who is a ginormous question mark?
How about Davis, a solid #3-4 starter, who we got at a very fair price given the market. Last I checked, there weren’t any cy young candidates willing to sign for <6M guaranteed.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Doug Davis was better than Yovani was last year.
According to the stat I chose.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
$20 MM is $20 MM.
you can’t afford a $20 m player when that much cash is spent on two guys who, statistically speaking, are among the worst starting pitchers in the league
It has the same effect on the budget regardless of whether it is going towards Braun and Fielder’s salaries or Suppan and Canthitalick.
Ceteris paribus, each personnel decision must satisfy the following inequality BUDGET >= OTHER COSTS + NEW CONTRACT. The other costs are bulked together without any consideration to their value.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Another one:
Rich Harden is a massive injury risk, and while better than Davis when healthy, you have to price that into his contract.
And Brad Penny? Really?
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
I feel like this deserves a profanity-laced response
But I will not do that.
I can’t believe people are actually shitting on this signing. That is all.
I was drunk. Sue me.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Jan 21, 2010 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
You're wrong. Per Haudricourt't post of yesterday.
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/82193472.html
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
You're wrong. Per Haudricourt's twitter post yesterday
I wrote earlier that Doug Davis could get $2 M in incentives in 2010 and also in 2011 option year. Actually, it’s $1 M each year.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jan 21, 2010 10:53 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
My bad. His blog post still reads $2m.
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
Double D
is a weird pitcher. His WHIP has always been bad while his ERA has been fine.
by Braunstalker on Jan 21, 2010 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
HR rate
The reason he can get away with it is because he doesn’t give up many HRs and not a ton of extra base hits. Although he walks a lot, not a lot of those walks come around to score because of that.
by kingcharlesxii on Jan 21, 2010 11:18 AM CST up reply actions
the 2 mm in incentives was a misprint corrected on the THwitter
1 mm in incentives.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
Looks like we've got ourselves a bilingual bloodfest.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
It really jumped up a notch, didn't it?
And Brick stabbed a guy!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 21, 2010 8:40 PM CST up reply actions
ruin the party
Aw, who shit on the coats?!
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Actually he made the party more fun, so I guess he didn't accomplish his goal.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
My two cents
No, Davis is not a great pitcher, but he’s not terrible either. I hate to go back to the quality start stat, but he did have 22 quality starts last year, compared to 17 for Gallardo. And with our offense, 3 runs is not much to overcome.
The most valuable part about the deal is that the presence of Davis could bump a worse pitcher out of the rotation (if that pitcher is named Jeff Suppan). Thus, addition by subtraction.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Jan 21, 2010 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
Davis' WHIP
His WHIP may have been in the bottom ten in the NL last year, however it is consistent with the prior three years. He also has posted an ERA in the 4’ s in each of those years.
2009 ARI 1.505 WHIP / 4.12 ERA
2008 ARI 1.534 WHIP / 4.32 ERA
2007 ARI 1.588 WHIP / 4.25 ERA
2006 MIL 1.515 WHIP / 4.91 ERA
Just because he has bad WHIPs and K/BB rates doesn’t mean he’s a bad pitcher. Historically he is able to overcome all those men on base. And, if I recall (though I could very easily be wrong) isn’t AZ a hitter’s park even more than Miller Park?
by Brew Believer on Jan 21, 2010 3:40 PM CST up reply actions
AZ is a spacious doubles/triples park.
Some advantage to the hitter, but not as huge an influence as a “band box” field.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Per Baseball Reference
Miller Park 2009 park factor: 95
Chase Field 2009 park factor: 110
MP multi-year factor: 97
CF multi-year factor: 109
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Jan 21, 2010 5:18 PM CST up reply actions
Suppan absolutely did not perform exactly as he had in the past. He was never worth the contract he was given (it was a terrible decision), but you can’t expect DM to have projected him to be this bad. His first year here Suppan was actually decent and worth the money, the last two he has been so atrocious as to have negative value.
Davis is a great signing with only $4.25 million guaranteed next year. Giving him a Suppan-contract would have been a move open for criticism, but I can’t see how you can argue with getting solid, consistent innings for as cheap as we did.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Thanks for changing the tagline.
Somehow the off-season was not proceeding to be as filled with face-palms as initially projected, and I was starting to think it needed a change.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I never said Hammonds was a DM signing; it’s just a case of a guy who woudn up hitting exactly the way he always did outisde of Coors, yet we expected something different and got burned.
And, I’d rather have Harden for 20 starts than Davis for 32.
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 10:50 AM CST reply actions
"And, I’d rather have Harden for 20 starts than Davis for 32."
Really? Who would you like for the other 12 or perhaps more if we actually wound up in the playoffs?
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
We have a heckuva a lot better chance of REACHING the playoffs with Harden + anyone versus Davis.
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 10:56 AM CST up reply actions
Ok. I also anxiously await your analysis that suggests that Davis is a beter pitcher than Harden.
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 11:02 AM CST up reply actions
Davis was better than every pitcher on the brewers last year.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Harden didn't throw enough innings to qualify for any stats that I look at.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Even when I relax the requirements to 25 games pitched
DD ERA+ = 111
Harden ERA+ = 110.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Harden FIP: 4.35
Davis FIP: 4.84
And Harden had 25 more strikeouts and 36 less walks in 8 less games.
Obviously Davis’ durability is a big asset, but Harden is certainly the better pitcher.
Define "better"
Is a pitcher really better if he is only available for half the games at the the same price tag?
I define it as who you would rather have pitching for you in one game.
Another way to put it is Harden is the more skilled pitcher, but Davis is the more durable pitcher.
I don't think he was saying Davis was better than Harden
but, rather, that Harden is an HUGE injury risk who can’t be counted on
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
exactly, and given last year's foray into AAA pitching stop-gaps
i’d prefer a solid major-league proven starter with an ERA south of 4 over a guy who can’t pitch enough innings in a season to have a sample size worth looking at.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 11:06 AM CST up reply actions
You have to go back five years to find the last time Davis' ERA was "south of 4.00"...
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 11:09 AM CST up reply actions
Same for Harden.
Unless you count the 7 games he pitched in ’07
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
ah. missed that due to the split.
another good 3/4ths of a season for Harden.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Really? Harden's ERAs were 4.09, 2.07 and 2.45 the last three years.
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
I missed 08 b/c of the split.
and a 2.45 ERA in 7 games doesn’t count.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
it seems jordan or someone here will have to do another primer on "robust sample sizes"
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 11:16 AM CST up reply actions
sorry, south of 5
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
Harden made 26 starts in 2009. That's not bad.
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
yeah, if he would sign for 3/4ths of a season worth of a contract, that'd be great.
too bad you have to pay him for the whole year.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Harden vs. Davis
Harden in 2009 had a better WHIP, ERA, K/9 rate, BB/9 rate, K/BB rate and gave up a lower opponents’ batting average than Davis. As for the injury factor, Harden made 26 starts versus 34 for Davis.
Now, show me how Davis is better.
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 11:06 AM CST up reply actions
1284.2 vs. 753.2
That’s Davis’s innings pitched and Harden’s since 2003
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
Suppan threw a lot of innings in that period, too. I suppose you are a big fan of his as well.
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
We weren't comparing Suppan to Harden or Davis.
Let’s stay on topic
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 11:13 AM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Wow I was about to make a comment to this extenet but was afraid it would upset KL
So, thanks
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
KL doesn't like strawman arguments either.
trust me.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Indeed I don't.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 21, 2010 11:47 AM CST up reply actions
i think he'd only be upset if i did google image search "ad-hominem"
and posted that picture.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
Breakdown
Just in case people wanted to know the specifics about each players’ stats…
Davis vs. Harden (2009)
WHIP
1.51 vs. 1.34
ERA
4.12 vs. 4.09
K/9 rate
6.5 vs. 10.9
BB/9 rate
4.6 vs. 4.3
K/BB rate
1.42 vs. 2.55
OBA
.267 vs. .234
Now, some other stats…
Number of seasons with 20 or more starts (as full-time starter)
8 (over 9 seasons) vs. 3 (over 6 seasons)
Number of seasons with 30 or more starts
6 vs. 1
2010 salary
$4.25M (plus bonuses) vs. $6.5M (plus bonuses)
I seriously can't believe this thread degenerated into "Prove Davis is better than Harden!!"
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 21, 2010 8:48 PM CST up reply actions
harden for 20 +
mike burns?
tim dillard?
halama?
i mean what do you expect to come up and act as a stop gap for the games you know that harden will be unable to play?
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
Reminder: Capuano is going to be available, barring another injury.
He’s at least better than those three options.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
capuano is better than those three options
provided he can prove that his arm strength is back and ready for AAA pitching. wasn’t it only a month or two ago he just started throwing off the mound again?
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 11:07 AM CST up reply actions
Nah, he threw some games in rookie ball towards the end of last year.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
i stand corrected.
cappy is about the only name on the list then that i’m comfortable with; past that, yikes.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
Agreed.
Which is why I’ve mentioned Cappy in both today’s mug and one of yesterday’s threads.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Having Cappy as a possibility, if he's healthy, is nice.
Counting on him is not a good idea, though.
He hasn’t pitched an outing longer than 2 innings or faced batters above rookie ball since his second Tommy John surgery, I’m hoping he comes back and contributes too, but counting on him to do it is a bad decision.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 21, 2010 11:49 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not counting on it.
But when we’re talking about 6th and 7th starters, I think his name should be included along with Mike Burns and Tim Dillard. I think Cappy is more likely to contribute meaningfully than Halama.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I'm not sure Capuano, Burns or Dillard are on the first page of that list.
Off the top of my head today, I’d set the bottom of the rotation and backup depth chart at:
5. Suppan
6. Bush
7. Narveson
8. Loe
9. Halama
10. Burns
11. Josh Butler
12. Chris Cody
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 21, 2010 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
Is this a skill-based ranking, or a "this is how the FO will do it"
Because obviously contracts/options play a role in what will happen after ST.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I would rather have Harden too, to be honest, but the Brewers didn’t sign him and he’s not available. That doesn’t mean the Davis signing was bad. Both Texas’ signing of Harden and Milwaukee’s signing of Davis were great pickups.
It’s like arguing that Prince Fielder sucks because we don’t have Albert Pujols instead.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Excellent analogy
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 21, 2010 8:49 PM CST up reply actions
i find it entertaining that no less than 3 comments in on the viva el birdos article
the untucking of shirts is rued.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 10:51 AM CST reply actions
Glancing at the comments on that site
made me remember why I appreciate this site so much
Harden vs. Davis
Harden in 2009 had a better WHIP, ERA, K/9 rate, BB/9 rate, K/BB rate and gave up a lower opponents’ batting average than Davis. As for the injury factor, Harden made 26 starts versus 34 for Davis.
Now, show me how Davis is better.
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 11:06 AM CST reply actions
As for the injury factor, Harden made 26 starts versus 34 for Davis.
Harden made 26 starts versus 34 for Davis.
Harden made 26 starts.
26
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 11:09 AM CST up reply actions
Also, even if you think the numbers are close
Harden’s contract is paying him $7.5 million, which is $2.25 million more than Davis’s guarantee.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 21, 2010 11:52 AM CST up reply actions
What would Harden's stats be if we took his 2009 stats for the 26 games he started, and filled in 8-10 more starts at or slightly below replacement level?
anyone?
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
For the NL in 2008
Replacement level starter was about a 5.37 ERA or a 38% win percentage. Not sure about 2009 numbers but I’d imagine they’re close.
by kingcharlesxii on Jan 21, 2010 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
So Harden+Replacement is about a 4.4 ERA then.
Not terrible, but not as good (or as cheap) as Davis.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
why look at 2008 and not 2009?
Brewers in the post-season? "no doubt about it"....
by TrueBlueBrewCrew on Jan 21, 2010 11:31 AM CST up reply actions
Because he wasn't sure about the numbers?
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
NL starters by rotation slot
put up the following on average in 2009. Ranking the pitchers by ERA on each team and taking 32 starts per rotation spot. Probably not 100% accurate since you get stuff like Narveson’s 4 starts plus 28 of Gallardo’s starts averaging out for our top 32 starts but it does give some general idea of what teams get out of their rotation slots.
ERA/innings per start
3.19/6.3
3.77/6.1
4.24/5.8
4.73/5.7
5.65/5.2
Going by that, we probably don’t have an ace. Wolf and Davis slot as #3’s. Bush and maybe Parra are #4’s and we have a couple guys who are at least #5’s.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
If you look at how many NL starting pitchers...
… are projected to have a 3.19 ERA or less…you’ll see why that’s probably not a good way to define “ace”:
http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=chone
Lincecum + a half year of Carpenter?
Taking the average of the top 16 NL pitchers who are projected to have 110 or more innings in 2010 might be a good definition for a generic #1 NL starting pitcher. Maybe a True Ace™ is the top 8?
Lincecum 2.97
Carpenter 3.13
Cliff Lee 3.47
Kershaw 3.58
Josh Johnson 3.60
Gallardo 3.66
Haren 3.67
Cain 3.69
It's what teams got out of
their top 32 starts on average. Maybe not a good way to define ace, but I still don’t look at Gallardo as an ace even if he is our ace. I don’t feel like he is a guy who can go 9 innings whenever he starts like CC or Sheets could. That is what I think of as an ace.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
That's why I hate debating about who's an ace
It’s just semantics. The more imortant point I was trying to make is that your list can’t really be used to define what ERA a #1 pitcher should have. Its way too high.
by rluzinski on Jan 21, 2010 1:18 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
That's unpossible
He’s sandbagging. He knows that 2009 was a banner year for replacement level pitching and would totally ruin his argument.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Jan 21, 2010 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
I'd love 2009
But nobody I could find on the web has done the math yet and somebody did for 2008. The win percentage is usually about the same but the ERA could fluctuate some from year to year. If you’re optimistic about the depth on the Brewers, lower the ERA a bit. If you’re pessimistic, add a bit. It’s not an exact science but it should give you a ballpark idea.
by kingcharlesxii on Jan 21, 2010 1:02 PM CST up reply actions
Spend that $20 mil on Bedard and Harden (ha!) and they’ll combine for one season.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 21, 2010 11:24 AM CST reply actions
what a bargain!
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
the potential converted starter report
It confirmed my suspicions that the only thing one should trade for Clay Buchholz is a spare left-handed long man….
To me, it's simple
In the Bush v. Suppan question, I think you look at basics: Bush is the better pitcher (or, said another way, has the better chance at posting better numbers in 2010). If an either/or decision has to be made, I think Bush is the better option.
That said, I think the team would be wise to keep both guys. Injury and ineffectiveness are sure to be part of the equation at some point in the season. They will very likely need both of these guys at some point in 2010.
I'm not disagreeing with you, directly at least.
Clearly, the best option is keeping everyone. But, if you do that, you have to cut someone else to make room for both of them. I’m not sure there’s a spot available that wouldn’t mean sacrificing more than it’s worth.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 21, 2010 12:00 PM CST up reply actions
Others would disagree.
And it’s not Riske, it’s Riske/Smith. Last I heard, Riske was still rehabbing.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
If that's the case...
then couldn’t you simply send Smith down to the minors? I would think that Bush would be able to do just as well as Smith coming out of the bullpen.
He is.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
He is, but is he that big of a loss if he doesn't accept his DFA?
I’d much rather have Bush around.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
2010 BP Caps released:
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Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Is the theory that the Brewers WILL cut Bush or should?
I can understand someone is speculating that it was the Brewers basically picking Davis over Bush. If there’s no more money, then that wasn’t the worst thing to do.
I just wouldn’t agree that Bush isn’t worth $4.5 milish to the Brewers this year. Bush’s projections put him at around a 4.70 ERA (and I would think a healthy Bush could beat that by one or 2-tenths). After Bush, we are basically looking at a bunch of replacement level pitchers (5.5ish ERA). Perhaps the Brewers can get a comparable pitcher for less via free agency. If they can, great (I have my doubts). But if they plan is to drop Bush, start Suppan and hold onto $4.5 mil for a mid-season aquisition, I think that’s a poor plan.
We will probably need
Bush next year as well unless our prospects pan out or even if they do.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Bush is a free agent after the season.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 21, 2010 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
Sure enough
Here’s hoping we get some prospects to step up this year.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I'm saying will, not necessarily should.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Agreed with Rluz.
If we cut Bush — we are throwing away ~$1M at a minimum. Some pitcher is bound to get hurt, the depth could be needed, Parra is a huge question mark. Suppan blows goats.
That said, I don’t think anyone is endorsing cutting Bush, but the roster is getting full, and I think people around here are speculating that Bush may be the odd man out.
The Brewers SHOULD cut Suppan… but they won’t.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Jan 21, 2010 2:17 PM CST up reply actions
They shouldn't cut Suppan either
He isn’t good, but we don’t have more than 5-6 guys better and we would have to pay him anyway.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I'd disagree. I think we have 7-8 guyes better than suppan.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
At least 7 or other guys.
I think paying Suppan to sit on a beach somewhere, will be better for the Brewers than paying him to pitch in Milwaukee.
He has negative value.
It would be like buying a ticket to a Kevin Costner movie, and then feeling compelled to watch it.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Jan 21, 2010 2:49 PM CST up reply actions
McConaughey??!
I heard you’d like to kick it up a notch
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 21, 2010 4:59 PM CST up reply actions
Again
I’d like to keep everybody, but MLB says you can only keep 25 guys on the roster.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Which is why Smith is gone, and Riske starts the year on the DL.
Bushpan takes the #5 spot in the rotation, as well as long relief in the pen.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
problem solved?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Maybe
What happens when Riske’s off the DL?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 21, 2010 8:56 PM CST up reply actions
Then what's the point of keeping him on the roster?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 21, 2010 10:49 PM CST up reply actions
Where does that put Villanueva?
I like the thinking of Bushpan as the swing guy, but that’s Carlos’s traditional spot. Is his roster spot in more danger than Bush’s? It’s arguable who had a worse year last year.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
57 | 46 | .553 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
56 | 46 | .549 | 0.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
48 | 55 | .466 | 9 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
46 | 56 | .450 | 10.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
42 | 59 | .415 | 14 | Won 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
36 | 65 | .356 | 20 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.30.2010 at 4:51 AM CDT)
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