The Brewer Advent Calendar #24: Carlos Villanueva
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 27, 2010 4:00 PM CST
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Remember when you were a kid and it felt like Christmas would never come? I always had an advent calendar, and while it didn't make Christmas come any faster, at least it meant I got chocolate every day.
Today, the Brewers' pitchers and catchers countdown is at 24 days, meaning it's time to open the first door on our Brewer Advent Calendar, just like we did last year. And while the technology still isn't quite in place for me to give you chocolate every day, I do promise to give you one small note around this time each day for the next 23 days.
So, behind the first door of the 2010 Brewer Advent Calendar we find...Carlos Villanueva!
Villanueva settled his arbitration case with the team yesterday, and will make $950,000 this season to likely sit somewhere between fourth and sixth on the Brewer depth chart in the bullpen, behind Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins and Todd Coffey. He's coming off easily his worst season as a major leaguer, posting a 5.34 ERA in 96 innings, including a 4.84 ERA in 67 innings out of the bullpen.
With that said, he's been a pretty effective reliever over the course of his career. In fact, he's been about as good as at least one guy the Brewers spent a fair amount of money on. Consider these numbers as a reliever since Opening Day 2006:
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | BB | K | FIP |
| Carlos Villanueva | 222.2 | 3.96 | 75 | 215 | 3.85 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 241 | 3.47 | 69 | 149 | 3.90 |
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Villanueva is decidedly awesome.
I still think the upside is still there too, I don’t know why they’ve never given him a sustained chance at starting.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I just pulled the five games he started between July 28 to August 17, 2009.
The numbers are not pretty:
5 GS, 24.0 IP, 9 BB, 13 K, 32 hits, 17 R, 17 ER, 6 HR, 6.38 ERA, opponent OPS of .944.
True
But a career 4.81 ERA as a starter at age 26 isn’t really that terrible, especially since they’ve only ever given him a handful of starts at a time (In the middle of the season, usually). I would imagine it might take a while to physically adjust from being a reliever to a full-time starter, but he’s never had much of a chance to do that. He’s usually given like four days to slide into the starter role and, not surprisingly, seems to struggle going deep into games at first.
Plus, Parra has a 6.36 ERA over the entirety of last season, and even he’s older than Villanueva (not that Parra isn’t probably better)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Well, he was given a shot in the rotation at the beginning of the '08 season ...
and the numbers there were no better.
Between April 4 and May 18, 2008:
9 GS, 49.0 IP, 16 BB, 31 K, 64 hits, 37 R, 35 ER, 12 HR, 6.43 ERA, opponent OPS of .933.
I’m not saying I disagree with you entirely, but I can see why management would be reticent to give him another shot in the rotation. And, for the most part, he’s been very good in his set-up role.
Its crazy to look at Villanueva's K numbers
He only throws high 80’s on his fastball, and he uses his change quite a bit (and more last year than any year), and, interestingly, he appears to have lost movement off of all of his pitches last year.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
I remember the Villanueva SP experiment well…either it was he wasn’t stretched out effectively beforehand, or he wasn’t used to having control over so many innings.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 27, 2010 6:34 PM CST reply actions
I remember a very up-and-down career for Villanueva as a starter
5 starts in Sept. 07: 2-2, 2.10 ERA
9 starts to begin 08: 2-5, 6.43 ERA
4 starts in Aug. 09: 0-2, 5.40 ERA
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Jan 27, 2010 9:29 PM CST up reply actions
Villy
I think Villanueva’s big problem with being a starter is that with his primary pitch being the change up, hitters tend to really time it well the 2nd time through the lineup. And his fastball doesnt have a ton of movement on it.
His best place is coming in for an inning or two and keeping hitters off balance by being starkly different, stuff wise, from the starter he replaces.
Doesn't that seem to be Bush's problem, too?
That third time through the order is terrible on him. I don’t know if it’s a stamina issue or if the other team is figuring him out by that point.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
It doesn't seem nearly as big a problem for Bush than Villy.
Looking at both of their starts, it seems that Villanueva more often than not gets into trouble in the 5th or 6th innings (or earlier).
Bush, on the other hand, seems to give up a big inning, but is able to pitch pretty deep into games.
That big inning was almost always in the 6th or 7th, though.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Looking back at the 2008 season...
Here’s a breakdown of Bush’s games where he gave up 3 or more runs in one inning.
Inning – Games
1st – 2
2nd – 1
3rd – 1
4th – 3
5th – 2
6th – 1
There's 24 days on the advent calendar?
And I thought my 8 days of presents was a sweet deal.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Jan 27, 2010 10:41 PM CST via mobile reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
57 | 46 | .553 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
56 | 46 | .549 | 0.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
48 | 55 | .466 | 9 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
46 | 56 | .450 | 10.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
42 | 59 | .415 | 14 | Won 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
36 | 65 | .356 | 20 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.30.2010 at 4:51 AM CDT)
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