Keith Law REALLY doesn't like the Brewers Farm System
You need Insider to view this, so I'll just put his take on how the Brewers are doing:
26. Milwaukee Brewers
They have a few moderately high-ceiling bats but very little in the way of pitching, which seems to be sort of a chronic problem for this organization. Eric Arnett and Jake Odorizzi do offer some hope on the mound, but both are probably a few years off.
For those interested, the top 5 are:
1. Texas
2. Boston
3. Tampa Bay
4. Cleveland
5. Atlanta
about 2 years ago
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I really think Keith Law is just overexposed
He can be a good analyst but he tries to do way too much. I’ll agree with him on most stuff but then he’ll just have bizarre quirks, like the hatred for the Brewer system (which is pretty much consensus top half of the majors everywhere else) and his insistence that Weeks needs to be moved to center field.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Yeah I saw this
I don’t disagree with his assessment, and its basically this, in a nutshell:
There is a dearth of arms in the minor league system that could have a significant impact in the majors, and the ones that could are quite some time away from MLB ready. There aren’t nearly as many impact bats as there previously had been. Overall, there seems to be a trend of NOT developing pitching, and the thinning-out of the bats really hurts.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
Yeah, but in a couple years maybe you will be hearing people say the good arms that Milwaukee has at the top of the system.
They have been focusing a lot on pitching in the draft the last couple years it seems like, but of course most of the draftees would still be in the lower rungs of the organization. Drafting more college pitchers hopefully will mean that they will advance faster, as well.
As far as not being as many bats as there have previously been, you can’t always have Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Hardy, and Braun type players in your system. Gamel, Escobar and Lawrie seem like a pretty solid top three position players to me.
Except of those three, only one is in the minor league system.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Right, but they are still technically prospects.
Besides, behind them you still have solid prospects like Lucroy/Salome, Gindl, and Schafer along with recent draftees like Davis and Richardson. Maybe none of those players become superstars, and probably some of them fizzle out completely (as is the nature of most prospects), but there are still certainly players that will likely become at least solid MLB players. I’m not saying the Brewers farm system is super-outstanding, but at least it should be near the middle of the pack.
And, technically, no
I’m pretty sure we went through a lot of this pre-voting for prospects. Gamel does not have rookie eligibility, and therefore “technically” is not a prospect.
Alcides Escobar is your 2010 Milwaukee Brewers starting SS, but still has rookie eligibility. So, “technically” he is a prospect, although that will change in very short order when the season starts.
Leaving only Lawrie.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 27, 2010 4:55 PM CST up reply actions
I wouldn't think it should be near the middle of the pack
I think it could reasonably be in the lower 20s. Focusing on college pitchers isn’t a bad change (I read somewhere the college pitchers have something like an 8% chance to have a significant impact in the majors, whereas high school pitchers have something like a 3% chance), but it only happened with the last two drafts. The problem there, is that most prospects are misses rather than hits, and its tough to look at a guy in the lowest levels or without any pro experience and judge whether he makes a significant impact based solely on ‘upside’. The Brewers have not only shown a propensity to be below-average at identifying and drafting pitching talent (with a few exceptions such as Sheets, Gallardo, Stetter, and Parra (who’s really TBD)), they have shown that the development program likely has flaws as injuries to top prospects have either blown them off the charts, or severely delayed their major league debuts. Admittedly, attrition is extremely high amongst young pitchers, but if the conditioning program Ben Sheets follows had anything to do with how the farm system does things, it wouldn’t surprise me.
I’m not talking ‘super stars’, but a small market team (that’s us, Milwaukee) has an extremely limited window of successful opportunity WITHOUT spending 25% of payroll on the bullpen, and greater than 50% on pitching in general. Buying pitching on the market is simply too expensive in general, and even more-so in specific for a place like Milwaukee, Wisconsin. For what the Brewers are, they need to invest more time and money in identifying, drafting, and developing pitchers. I know the organisation has been making strides in that area since Jack Z. left (implication is NOT unintentional), but the dearth of close-to-majors pitching is going to be closely followed by a dearth of close-to-majors bats as well in pretty short order. That is why, in my opinion, the ranking Keith Law has given here is not unfair.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 27, 2010 5:06 PM CST up reply actions
I think it is
Most other analysts have put the Brewer system from I think 6 down to about 20. 26 is extremely low. Compare the Astros system to ours. It’s not in the same league.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Fair enough.
I think it isn’t middle of the pack. Opinions rule.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 27, 2010 7:14 PM CST up reply actions
And by the way
which analyst ranked the Brewers as the 6th best system?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 27, 2010 7:15 PM CST up reply actions
I might have been hallucinating on 6
I think I was thinking of this, which slides all of the Sickels grades into a chart and evaluates the system based on projected dollar value. We’re eighth.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
The thing is,
When Braun and Prince got to the majors, we still had Laporta, Escobar, and Gamel, and had just drafted Lawrie.
As Escobar and Gamel get to the majors, all we really have left is Lawrie.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
It took you a lot less words
but that’s what I’m saying!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 27, 2010 6:08 PM CST up reply actions
Which is why MKE isn't a top 5 farm system anymore.
Not many teams have that kind of depth. I’m not trying to compare the Brewers current prospects to those in previous years necessarily—they are no where near being in the same class. But with some potentially solid position players and gaining some good pitching prospects the last few years, the Brewers farm system is at least average.
I can agree with average.
I just think our top pitching prospects are too young to make this an above average farm system.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Yeah, I wouldn't say that it's above average either.
In my opinion, it’s probably somewhere from 12-18.
I don't know enough about other systems to put a number on it
But I’m not very encouraged about the team’s future with this farm system.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
By definition
if you don’t think its above average, it could not be higher than 16.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 28, 2010 9:53 AM CST up reply actions
Unless you're giving all teams equal weight.
Which doesn’t work here.the 15th best team isn’t equally as good as the 17th ranked team is bad…
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
No.
It’s like saying that a 96 or 104 OPS+ isn’t average because it’s not exactly 100. I’m not saying that the Brewers have the most average farm system in the league; that is, right smack dab in the middle of the rankings. Rather, I am saying that they are somewhere in the average-ish range.
So the main criticism...
… is that we don’t have a big bat or arm ready to make an impact in the next 12 months. If that’s his point, I suppose that’s fair, but it seems like a fairly limited way to evaluate a system.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 27, 2010 4:19 PM CST up reply actions
I'll agree that the farm is definately not in the top 10 anymore
But that ranking is like Astros level. I would put our farm system somewhere between 14-20. There aren’t any superstars there, but there are a lot of solid players (Lucroy, Schafer, Gindl), and that’s got to be worth something. Combine that with the pitching prospects in the lower levels, I’d say that makes our system at least average.
The lack of good bats in the system makes me think that it would be wise to concentrate on hitters in the next draft.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
Law's top 10 Brewer prospects
Not sure if I can copy/paste here, I’ll wait for Haudricourt to do it first.
The only things that stuck out to me were Lawrie #1 (he’s always harped on Escobar’s plate discipline in the past so this isn’t surprising), Braddock low on the list, and Willy Peralta is #6.
Get a ife broseph
Law's Top 100
Has Lawrie #47 & Escobar #54.
He’s really not a fan.
by The Left Button on Jan 28, 2010 11:46 AM CST reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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