PECOTA Picks the Brewers to finish 5th
No subscription required. They have us finishing 75-87 as it stands now.
about 2 years ago
Hyatt
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Surprises from the report
A’s win the West at 87-75
Reds 2nd at 82-80
Nats 3rd in the East at 82-80
Angels last in the West
Yankees score 927 runs and still finish 3rd in the East
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
However,
They only predict the Reds to win 82 games — and the Cubs, Astros and Brewers to finish with 75-78 wins.
I expect that the Reds will get better.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Jan 28, 2010 4:20 PM CST up reply actions
how deep was the rejiggering?
back in the Nate days, I thought PECOTA was considered particularly good. but weren’t there a number of issues last year? i think they rejiggered it this offseason, but do you know how pervasive that was?
i guess i’m just sayin’ i’m skeptical. i buy the directional arguments: the AL east will be good, the NL central is mediocre. i’m not sure i buy the specific ones this time: the nats will have a winning record…
by Capt Science on Jan 28, 2010 4:49 PM CST up reply actions
5 Games worse??
I don’t see us being 5 games worse. The noticeable loss of Cam, is more than made up for in the gains through losses of Kendall and Looper. Add the signings of Wolf and Davis should improve us.
by Saberilliterate on Jan 28, 2010 3:22 PM CST reply actions
Unless...
they think the rest of the division has improved more than the Brewers.
In any case, I agree… barring any big injuries or meltdowns, I don’t see the Brewers doing worse this season than last.
I dunno....
Kendall sucked, but I don’t see where we improve at C.
I suspect we are going to take a step back in 2010 at SS offensively and defensively as well.
We are going to lose a lot in CF on both sides as well — I suspect Cameron made Braun and Hart better as well.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Jan 28, 2010 4:26 PM CST up reply actions
By all accounts, Gomez is close to if not superior to Camerons defense.
That’s probably the only position we will lose a major chunk of offense at, though. I think that Escobar will probably put up at least close to the .302/.357 and .292 wOBA that JJ Hardy had last year, so compared to solely last year, SS will probably be better offensively in 2010 as well as at least equal defensively.
Catcher production should at least stagnate. It can’t be much worse than Kendall.
I don't disagree with anything you say...
However, I don’t see how a projection system can take guys like Escobar and Gomez and just assume that they will be above average based on scouting.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Jan 29, 2010 11:00 AM CST up reply actions
I see where you're coming from...
I guess it depends on what the projection system is using to determine how Escobar and Gomez will perform. Is it using MLEs or are they simply going with worst case scenario… that they don’t pan out?
I agree… Zaun doesn’t appear to be an improvement, just a cheaper option with the same results.
At SS, however, I don’t think we’re going to see much of a step back offensively or defensively. In defense, I think it’s a draw at this point. Escobar has better range than Hardy, so while Escobar may make the occasional poor decision due to inexperience, he’ll be able to get to balls Hardy never was. As far as offensive, Hardy was coming off his worst year in MLB… .229/.302/.357. I would think at a minimum Escobar will be able to match those numbers.
At CF, I agree we lose quite a bit of power with Gomez, but there’s nothing to say that his defense isn’t as good as (if not better) than Cameron.
PECOTA seems to be on crack
It just seems unrealistic. I’m not sure why it is projecting Wolf and Davis to decline so much. It also hates the Brewers defense – Escobar is rating as major league average SS, it really hates Gamel and all the catchers.
I’m also not sure why it expects Yovani Gallardo to regress.
Just looking at the stats though, I really think it is because PECOTA hates the Brewers’ defense. Most of the starters are showing a very high BABIP.
To expand
Every Brewers pitcher is in the top 20% of the majors for highest BABIP except for LaTroy Hawkins (league average), Lindsay Gulin (slightly below average), Mitch Stetter and Trevor Hoffman (both well above average). Every Brewers starter except Dave Bush is in the top 15%. I’m really convinced PECOTA hates the Brewers defense, which causes the high RA prediction.
by kingcharlesxii on Jan 28, 2010 3:49 PM CST up reply actions
Escobar.
I suspect league average is a fair projection for Escobar on D. I think eventually Escobar will be top shelf, but I suspect it will take him awhile to get there — He may end up being better, but I think an “average” rating at this point is defensible.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Jan 28, 2010 4:31 PM CST up reply actions
It does project us to have the best OPS in the division, though.
So I guess PECOTA thinks that Davis and Wolf aren’t going to be better than what we had last year, and/or thinks the defense will be worse, which in my opinion is just silly.
So PECOTA has 77 more runs against for the Brewers this year.
We’ll regress by almost half a run per game. I don’t get it.
I may live to regret this but I don't see any way we give up more runs than we did last year
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
four words
a healthy Manny Parra
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Third-worst team in the NL?
Ouch. I really don’t think I’m a Pollyanna fan, but this projection seems quite a bit low. I sure hope we’re not all deluding ourselves about being competitive in 2010.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 7:03 AM CST)
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