Tuesday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while checking your indicator lights.
Perhaps the Brewers aren't done making moves after all. Ken Rosenthal and Tom Haudricourt are in agreement that the Brewers will sign one of the three of Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn and Jon Garland before spring training. Melvin also plans to meet with Mark Mulder next week. If the Brewers sign Mulder and one of the three listed above it could create a really interesting spring training scenario, with all of these starters competing for spots:
Yovani Gallardo
Manny Parra
Randy Wolf
Davis/Washburn/Garland
David Bush
Jeff Suppan
Chris Narveson
Kameron Loe
Chris Capuano
John Halama
Chris Waters
Mike Burns
Josh Butler
Chris Cody
That's 14 pitchers, and you can make a solid case that all of them should be starting in AAA or above. It'll be interesting to see how the organization finds innings for all of these guys this spring, and how their assignments are handled when camp breaks.
It's a big news day in the minors, so let's jump straight to that:
- John Sickels unveiled his top 20 Brewer prospects yesterday (FanShot). He rated Alcides Escobar as a B and the Brewers' second-best prospect, behind Brett Lawrie. He's considering changing the grade, so stop over there and weigh in if you'd like to encourage him one way or another.
- Harry Pavlidis of The Hardball Times has developed a set of criteria to use to predict which pitching prospects will have major league success, and one of his 29 pitchers is Evan Anundsen, who spent the 2009 season with Brevard County.
- It certainly feels too early for this, but Morisato has his first 2010 mock draft up, and he has the Brewers drafting Bryce Brentz, an outfielder out of Middle Tennessee State.
- Maybe someone can help us confirm it, but Lisa Winston of MiLB.com says she's "positive" Angel Salome makes an appearance at the end of Sugar. I have yet to see the movie.
Over the next few days we'll probably have some arbitration news. Today is the first day of the ten day window for players and teams to file their arbitration requests. Once those figures are in, the midpoint usually becomes pretty clear and deals start getting struck. If you've lost track of your calendar, John & Cait have a list of the important remaining offseason dates, including February 10 (Truck Day).
Adam McCalvy cleared out his inbox yesterday, and has notes on Mark Mulder, Mat Gamel, Rickie Weeks, the running game, and uniform plans.
I had planned to open the final vote for the BCB All Decade Team yesterday, but the plans got changed a bit when we needed a runoff vote between Curtis Leskanic, Carlos Villanueva and Seth McClung to determine the sixth member of the bullpen. That vote runs until 4 today and, barring another tie, voting for the final roster spot will open at that point.
Around baseball:
Indians: Signed outfielder Shelley Duncan to a minor league deal.
Pirates: Signed pitchers Tyler Yates, Brian Burres and Neal Cotts to minor league deals.
Red Sox: Signed Adrian Beltre to a one year, $9 million deal with a player option for 2011.
Royals: Signed pitcher John Parrish to a minor league deal.
Here's a slammed-together update on some other free agent pitchers and former Brewers:
- Jarrod Washburn, once considered a top target for the Brewers, is now hoping to return to Seattle.
- According to his agent, 15 teams have inquired regarding Chien-Ming Wang. One can probably assume the Brewers are one of them.
- Ken Rosenthal recently raised the possibility that Ben Sheets could sign with the Cubs, but Bruce Miles of the Chicago Daily Herald says Sheets' demands don't fit in the Cubs' budget, so the best they'd probably offer is a low-base, incentive laden deal, and they might wait a month before even doing that.
- Elsewhere in former Brewer news, Jason Kendall was one of just 13 players in all of baseball last season to pick up an extra base hit in less than 5% of his plate appearances (Tony Gwynn also made the list). If you're looking for something ironic to wear to Miller Park next season, this Jason Kendall jersey might be appropriate.
- Dave Pinto is into the C's in his Players A to Z series, and came across Frank Catalanotto yesterday. Catman is still looking for work and Pinto says he wouldn't be surprised if he's out of baseball soon.
Yesterday I mentioned the results of the SBN Hall of Fame voting, where Bert Blyleven was the only player to reach 75%. I'm also a voter in the IBWAA, and Blyleven was the only player to reach 75% in their balloting as well.
Elsewhere in awards, Beyond the Box Score announced their plans yesterday to give out awards for the internet's best sabermetric writing. Follow that link for the general concept, and check back there over the coming days if you're interested in nominating your favorite blogs.
Wondering what makes a solid #2 hitter? Or perhaps you've always wanted to identify baseball's most productive #6 hitter? Walk Like a Sabermetrician has crunched the numbers for you. I think I've mentioned it before but it's worth repeating: Prince Fielder was baseball's best cleanup hitter last season, and the #4 spot in the Brewer lineup was the second most productive in all of baseball.
'Tis the season for crazy ideas. Last week I mentioned an idea to address some of baseball's revenue disparity by adding a third team in New York. South Side Sox used that as a jumping off point for a proposal to add two expansion teams and split each league up into four four-team divisions. Under their plan, the new-look NL Central would feature the Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals and Rockies.
On this day in 1999, Robin Yount was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame alongside fellow first-balloters George Brett and Nolan Ryan. It was the first time in the Hall's history that three first-timers had been elected in the same year.
Happy birthday today to:
- Ruben Quevedo, who turns 31.
- Juan Nieves, who turns 45.
- Jim Gantner, who turns 57.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm taking a grapefruit to lunch.
Drink up.
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If its really one of those three
Its going to have to be Jon Garland. What sane GM is going to have 3 left handed SPs in the NL Central?
Unless he’s moving Parra to the bullpen. Also a stupid idea.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
FWIW
Four of the other five teams in the NL Central were not very good against LHP last year. The Brewers were the best in the league against LHP, though, so maybe they should be encouraging those guys to sign for a division rival.
Totally agree...
…and in addition, it appears most of Doug’s back up options are southpaws. If I’m not mistaken, Narveson, Cappy, [Mulder], and Halama all throw from the left side, as do true longsohts like Waters and Cody.
Washburn on a one year deal with an option would be my choice.
Correction
…I meant Garland, the RH, on a one year deal. A bit brain dead this morning…
Garland
Yeah, I would go with Garland too. He’s younger and a decent replacement for Bush. They’ll already have 2 LHP in the rotation and adding aging Davis or Washburn would (although quite typical to Melvin) not be a good idea.
I would assume that they could offer Garland a 2 year deal with an option in the $15 million range with an extra $5 million 3rd year. Of course the way DM structures contracts he’ll offer a 4th year and give a $1 million buyout.
Problem with this is that Bush is going to make too much money to be in the bullpen and his value in a trade is probably very small. He would have been a great bet for non tender if they knew they were going to pursue Garland.
maybe suppan loses out on the final rotation spot.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
True
But then the team just throws $12.5 million down the toilet.
As badly as he has pitched, he is still an upstanding citizen, and for the same reason they have to overpay a FA to come here, they probably also have to let a guy like Suppan stick around.
And I highly doubt that the Brewers will want to swallow that kind of money without getting performance for it, even if its only inning eating.
Put him in the bullpen.
Point is, if he isn’t good enough for the rotation, and he’s not, you’re still throwing away 12.5MM without getting any production by letting him start. If they were willing to part ways with Bill Hall to get a better option in there, they’ll be willing to do it with Suppan coming off of the season the pitchers had last year.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Bullpen is full.
Assuming Hoffman, Hawkins, Coffey, Vargas, Stetter and Villanueva have spots locked up, there’s one spot left. If David Riske is healthy, that’s his spot.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Different situation...
Suppan will still give you a handful of good starts. Besides, I think it is an either or situation with Suppan and Hall… the Brewers can afford to throw away one of their salaries, but not both of them.
why can't they afford to throw away both?
The money’s already spent. You don’t owe him any more money by cutting him.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Ben as a Cub would be heart wrenching
I was planning on wearing my Sheets gear still, but if he’s a Cub…. sorry Ben.
Sugar
I saw the movie but I don’t remember seeing him. There were a bunch of former (and current I guess) players at the end though and I’m not good with faces.
i thought there'd be discussion on fangraphs today
as they posted this article yesterday which mentioned Doug Melvin as the 5th best GM in all of MLB. sounds like something the FDM crew would have contested.
I saw that
I think its quite ridiculous to put Melvin in the same class as Theo Epstein, Andrew Friedman and Billy Beane.
I had seen this, and was even going to fanshot it
In my opinion, to put Doug Melvin in over, say, Dan O’Dowd is sheer lunacy.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 5, 2010 8:02 PM CST up reply actions
Sickels rankings
Escobar got bumped up to a B+ overnight.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Sickels changed Escobar's grade
to a B+ this morning
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
What if teams opened their books....
… the leagues merged and reconfigured divisions based on gross revenues? I’m pretty sure the press would have a collective, six month climax while covering a division race involving the BoSox, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers and Angels. :)
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 5, 2010 11:01 AM CST reply actions
That misses the whole point.
It has to be done NCAA Bracket style (best against the worst), thus guaranteeing all major markets are in the playoffs. And teams in small markets automatically start out their playoff series with 1 loss. Oh man, I feel like I’m channeling the mind of Bud Selig, it’s eery.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I'd be all for it
But baseball would actually be better off financially if each of those teams were in different divisions, because it’d increase the likelihood of an all-big-market postseason.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Awesome idea that can't happen
Because that would mean that some of them wouldn’t make the playoffs, and that’s just unacceptable. Teams like us are just background characters in their story.
Make a $ and ¢ league
Top revenue in the $ league, bottom revenue in the ¢ league. Champion of ¢ league moves up each season with the worst team in $ league moving down. Teams that move from the bottom half to top half of revenue move up and their opposite numbers move down. All the stars would gravitate to $ league for the money, but those scrappy ¢ teams can still win the World Series and make everybody happy.
Wouldn't that discourage teams like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays, Brewers, M's..
from spending? If you have teams like the Royals, Pirates, and Marlins in the same division, they’re going to make the playoffs with a $30MM payroll. The playoffs would then be really boring with the Yankees playing the Royals in the first round. it would only widen the gap between the top spenders and the small markets.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I'm not sure why that would discourage spending, particularly since some of the teams you've listed...
… are spending much more than 30 million per year already. But it might make them spend their money differently. For instance, if a team knows it’s got a reasonable shot at making the playoffs because it’s competing for a division title against teams with similar resources, a GM MIGHT choose to spend say, 40 million of a 60-70 million dollar payroll in any given season on legit 1 and 2 starters. Then put together a positional lineup with relatively cheap guys that offer above average defense up the middle and cheap high OBP guys at the corners. With an unbalanced schedule, they’d have a legit shot at the playoffs and they’d have the kind of team that can compete against a much more expensive, deeper and more broadly talented team in the playoffs, assuming those expensive starters would pitch 4 games of a 7 game series. It wouldn’t be easy to put together that kind of team, but it might discourage small or medium size market GM’s from offering relievers multi-year deals for millions of dollars since they don’t have to worry as much about competing (in season) against clubs (like say the 2008 Cubs) who have legit starters throughout their 5 man rotation.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 5, 2010 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
... but this was really all tongue in cheek...
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 5, 2010 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
2 things
I really dislike Sugar and had been jazzed to see it.
Ruben Q is only 31?!?!
by Nicole Haase on Jan 5, 2010 11:44 AM CST via mobile reply actions
He flamed out fast.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Jan 5, 2010 11:47 AM CST up reply actions
Hell, give Rubie a minor-league contract with a spring training invite.
Just check all the Krispy Kremes in North and South America. Can’t be that hard to find him.
Probably never done a "fast" either.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I know, I was surprised too.
I’m only a year-and-a-half younger than my boy. I believe he’s still got me by a few belt sizes, though.
Well, as established in a prevous Thinker
He was one of the youngest starters in Brewer history during his brief run.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
The run in the briefs after too much Mexican food...
by BrewCrewBrian on Jan 5, 2010 4:54 PM CST up reply actions
The run to get a new pair of briefs after too much Mexican food...
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I challenge you to make a case that Suppan deserves to pitch at AAA or higher
At least one that doesn’t mention his salary.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
I knew someone would bring that up.
Of the 14, Suppan is the one I could see getting DFA’d with minimal gnashing of teeth. But I guess you could build an argument for him with things like “track record” and “veteranness” and similar BS.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
If they sign a second starter plus Mulder
I think we can start the countdown to Suppan being traded/released.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Jan 5, 2010 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
Too bad we couldn't trade him to the Cubs for Bradley.
If ever there was a candidate for violating the “don’t trade within the division” rule, it’s Suppan.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
$12.5 million worth of gnashing
Wouldnt call that minimal.
And then it would be even worse if a team in the division picked him up, had solid defense behind him, and allowed him to “be himself” and gets 2 WAR out of him.
I agree that it was a Grade A awful signing, from day 1. But the money is spent, he brings something to the roster (although what that is exactly isnt very good), and if the Brewers were to just release him, and he lands on a team with good D and a big park, and all of that performance at the expense of the Brewers…..just leaves a lot of egg on the face of the organization as well as DM.
Sunk costs
vs opportunity costs. Interesting read, especially this part:
The more common (and much less political) example of sunk cost is the cost of a movie ticket. Once the the ticket has been paid for it’s a sunk cost, and should not be heeded in the decision to actually watch a movie. So if you’re watching a movie, and it’s bad there’s little reason for you to stay. The price of the ticket is sunk, and staying and watching the movie has an opportunity cost of watching another movie or doing something else. If watching the movie is not producing value, the cost of watching (the opportunity cost) should be the only consideration and not the fact that one’s already paid $10 for a ticket. Yet, how many of us will continue watching a bad movie? Or even worse, stay in a investment because of what we’ve already paid?
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Jan 5, 2010 1:05 PM CST up reply actions
Great example
I just dont think that the FO takes that approach to the highest paid player in franchise history. A guy that the GM and owner like personally to boot.
If you are buying a movie ticket and walk out because you dont like it, thats your own personal perogative. But you cant go and sell your ticket stub, or even give it to someone to use after you walk out. Suppan could be picked up by someone after clearing waivers, and the Brewers are still on the hook for his salary. In this case, that cost you are spending money on, is going towards another teams production. And if its in your league or even division, its very counter productive then.
I could not follow that doctrine for The Dewey Cox story
and I bitched enough to get my refund.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Did you really
get your money back? If so I am going to remember where I saw “The Gods Must Be Crazy”.
"I like Suppan"
- Noah J. on 12/22/09
As far as ironic jerseys to wear to games next year...
I think it would be more fun to wear a customized “Von Canthitalick” jersey.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Or make your own
Out of sandpaper.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Or you could attend the games in sackcloth and ashes.
Of course nobody will be able to tell if you’re a lunatic proclaiming the coming end of the world, or just a member of FireDougMelvin.com who accidentally bought tickets to AND is attending a Suppan start.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Referring more to the top of the page
I’m not sure where all the Garland love is coming from. Seems like another Looper to me. I’d take Davis and that’s it out of those three
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
None of the three are exciting
But adding one might bump Suppan out of the rotation, which is exciting.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Jan 5, 2010 1:55 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
More important than anything in the Mug:
3 Months to Opening Day!!!!!
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
































