Community Projections Review, Part 1

I'm just going to jump right in to the projections here, covering some of the position players today, some more tomorrow, and finishing up with most of the pitchers on Friday. For reference, here is the community projections summary I posted all the way back in March.

Prince Fielder

BCB Community Projection: .295/.398/.586, 98% of playing time

Actual line: .261/.401/.471, 714 plate appearances, 4.1 WAR

Fielder had a really productive year, which was overlooked by a lot of people. Despite not living up to our high expectations for slugging, he actually managed to top our OBP projection, and that's what is really important. Fielder had another great year offensively, it just wasn't an epic year offensively as last year was. I'm not going to comment too much on whether I think Fielder will be a Brewer next season, it's been covered enough already. But he's a remarkably productive first basemen and should have some good value on the trade market or on the Brewers' 2011 team.

Rickie Weeks

BCB Community Projection: .266/.355/.451, 77% of playing time

Actual line: .269/.366/.464, 754 plate appearances, 6.1 WAR

I think it's remarkable that the Weeks breakout year that no one apparently saw coming was pretty closely predicted by the BCB. The durability was a major part in the fantastic value he had this year, as well as the roughly average defense. 12 position players in the major leagues had more overall value than Weeks this year. If there is any way to extend him at a good rate (which I think is possible, because the market still seems to undervalue his skillset), the Brewers should make an effort to do so this offseason.

Casey McGehee

BCB Community Projection: .274/.334/.427, 62% of playing time

Actual line: .285/.337/.464, 670 plate appearances, 3.5 WAR

McGehee definitely exceeded expectations once again this season. I can't explain it but I think it's safe to say that McGehee should be considered a solidly above-average big league regular at this point. There are a lot of ways the Brewers can go to work with the abundance of position players they'll have on the roster this spring, but McGehee has established that he's worthy of a starting job at third base, here or for another team if they're willing to offer him up in a trade.

Alcides Escobar

BCB Community Projection: .282/.331/.380, 82% of playing time

Actual line: .235/.288/.326, 552 plate appearances, .6 WAR

Escobar did not live up to our projection, which in retrospect seems like it was probably a bit unrealistic. There are indications that Escobar got a bit unlucky this year, his BABIP, which was .264, is not something you would have expected with his batted ball profile. It's a bold statement to say that Escobar should have met his projection, and I'm not going to go there. But it's safe to say that he should have been a bit closer. Overall, Escobar's season wasn't exactly encouraging, but it's his age 23 season and shouldn't be a big concern. I expect him to improve plenty next year.

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