NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 30: Chris Narveson #38 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches against the New York Mets during their game on September 30 2010 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images)
Today we will look at the final piece of the community projections, the pitchers. The important thing to remember here is that I asked people to project the pitchers based on fielding independent pitching skill, and then I applied an adjustment for how people projected the actual defense to perform. So the numbers you're seeing under the projections should be considered more of a projection for FIP than a projection for ERA, which is subject to a lot of variation and influence by defense. We're also not using xFIP because we're looking at how the pitcher actually performed, not how they should have performed.
BCB Community Projection: 3.45, 200 innings
Actual line: 3.02, 185 innings (3.84 ERA, 4.6 WAR)
This is a fun one. Gallardo had a fantastic year by any measure. He hasn't topped the 200 inning mark yet, but there is really nothing to be concerned about with our young, cheap ace here.
BCB Community Projection: 4.05, 192 innings
Actual line: 4.85, 215 innings (4.17 ERA, .7 WAR)
Wolf did not have the year we hoped he'd have, but his strong late-season performance shows that he's not washed up and the contract is by no means a lost cause. He brings a bit of durability and stability to the staff. He actually threw more innings this year than he did in his great season with the Dodgers in 2009. It wasn't the year we all wanted, but there's plenty reason to expect a good year out of Wolf in 2011.
BCB Community Projection: 4.38, 193 innings
Actual line: 5.22, 38 innings (7.51 ERA, 0 WAR)
Davis was a worthwhile acquisition-- we were fairly optimistic about him-- but injuries made this a lost cause. I had almost forgotten that Davis started the year in the rotation.
BCB Community Projection: 4.48, 157 innings
Actual line: 5.13, 174 innings (4.54 ERA, .1 WAR)
Bush was a serviceable starter in his four seasons as a Brewer, but I'd think it's unlikely he'll be back next year. He has had a pretty consistent trend of worsening peripherals (and as a direct result, FIPs). His ERA ended up looking pretty respectable this year but it wasn't backed up by his overall pitching performance. Bush has his place but he's no longer a mid-rotation starter. He's done good work in his time with the Brewers overall, but it's probably time to move on.
BCB Community Projection: 4.44, 155 innings
Actual line: 4.50, 122 innings (5.02 ERA, .4 WAR)
And then there's Parra. Notice how similar our projections were for Bush and Parra. Bush ended up with a nice-looking ERA but was a half run higher than our projections in the fielding-independent department, and Parra matched our expectations almost exactly but pulled an ERA over 5. Parra has plenty of skills, but at this point it will be a matter of determining his role-- I haven't given up on him as a starter, but who knows if the organization has.
BCB Community Projection: 5.16, 99 innings
Actual line: 4.85, 31 innings (7.84 ERA, -.1 WAR)
This must make everyone smile. (Bullpen after the jump)
2.65, 56 innings
5.21, 47 innings
3.51, 69 innings
3.95, 16 innings
3.75, 75 innings
4.20, 62 innings
3.9, 64 innings
4.76, 20 innings
3.33, 50 innings
4.39, 64 innings
4.22, 167 innings
4.15, 60 innings
3.74, 52 innings
This one was a mixed bag. I said in the projections review in spring that this bullpen was going to be very, very strong, and indeed it was, just not with the people we projected. Vargas, Hawkins, and Stetter were non-factors, and Hoffman struggled tremendously for much of the year. We didn't even project Axford and Loe, though we did note that they could be factors if injuries or ineffectiveness. Narveson is the one who really stands out here, we projected him only as a reliever and he really outdid himself, not only starting but really putting together a solid year.
That's it for the projections, I could well be doing more with these if I have the time to compare them to preseason projections from other systems to see how we fared.