Wednesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Oct 20, 2010 9:32 AM CDT
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read from your front row seat.
We'll lead off today with the day's best news: Bob Uecker's heart surgery was yesterday and the six hour procedure was deemed a success, with Dr. Alfred C. Nicolosi saying they were able to repair Uecker's pseudoaneurysm without having to repeat any of the work done in his previous surgery. Uecker will remain in the hospital for a week and is expected to be fully recovered by the first of the year.
Meanwhile, Joey Cora and Pat Listach both interviewed for the managerial vacancy yesterday, but that's more or less all we know. Tom Haudricourt says he thinks the interviews took place in Chicago.
Of course, the argument that the decision doesn't much matter has some merit. The Book Blog has a look at a recent study suggesting that managers don't have much impact on whether a team over or underperforms as compared to their pythagorean record.
The Brewers issued a couple of invitations to spring training yesterday as part of new minor league deals for catcher Mike Rivera and reliever Robert Hinton (FanShot). Rivera was a 2006-09 Brewer who spent 2010 with the Marlins, and Hinton posted a 4.16 ERA in relief between Huntsville and Nashville last season.
Congratulations are due out today to Rickie Weeks, who was honored with the team's Michael Harrison Award for Community Service for his work in the community this season. That link has a list of the activities Weeks has been involved in, including a fair number of things you might not have been aware of.
Elsewhere in accolades, John Axford was named to Baseball America's All Rookie Team.
In the minors:
- Second baseman Eric Farris went 1-for-5 with a double for Surprise in the AFL yesterday, and is hitting .435/.480/.522 with three stolen bases and seven runs scored in his first five games in the desert. Jason Grey of ESPN still doesn't think Farris has the bat to be a major league regular, though.
- Caleb Gindl got the day off yesterday, but is still hitting .400/.474/.733 in his first four games for Surprise. Tom Haudricourt suggested that the outfielder could be used as trade bait this offseason as Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain and Corey Hart appear to have blocked his path to the majors.
- The Jake Odorizzi bandwagon is starting to fill up: Jim Callis of Baseball America thinks its possible Odorizzi could be promoted to Huntsville at midseason next year.
Around baseball:
Braves: Released pitcher Takashi Saito and outfielder Melky Cabrera.
Cubs: Removed the "interim" tag from manager Mike Quade, and signed him to a two year deal.
Dodgers: Pitcher Ted Lilly's new deal will pay him $33 million over three seasons.
Marlins: Reliever Taylor Tankersley refused a minor league assignment and is now a free agent.
Nationals: Promoted Mike Rizzo to Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations and extended his contract through the 2015 season.
Yet another potentially interesting pitcher is off the market: MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Japanese phenom Yu Darvish is expected to remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters next season.
The free agent pitching market might be unimpressive this winter, but the trade market could heat up quickly: Earlier this week I mentioned that the Royals may shop Zack Greinke, and now today DRaysBay is suggesting the Rays could look to deal Matt Garza. Garza has made at least 30 starts and posted an ERA under four for the Rays in each of the last three seasons, and has three arbitration years left before he's eligible for free agency.
Here are today's former Brewer notes:
- Ben Oglivie is expected to be named the hitting coach of the West Michigan Whitecaps (Midwest League) for 2011.
- Corey Koskie is being inducted into the Manitoba Baseball Hall of Fame.
It's still relatively early, but it's possible the most interesting storyline of the managerial hiring season is taking place in Toronto, where the Blue Jays have interviewed former catcher Sandy Alomar Jr. three times now. Alomar retired following the 2007 season and has just one year of major league coaching experience, having served on Manny Acta's staff in Cleveland this season.
Sometimes a slow news day leaves you more time for investigative work. Gaslamp Ball used yesterday's extra time to get the real story on the origin of Bruce Bochy's white eyelashes.
There have only been two ALCS games played there, but we've already seen the worst stereotypes of New York fans played out on a grand stage. In three separate incidents, fans slapped Nelson Cruz's glove out of the way as he attempted to catch an eventual home run and denied wrongdoing, a fan rushed the field intending to attack Alex Rodriguez, and fans pelted the Rangers' bullpen with trash. And, of course, in both contests large portions of the crowd left a playoff game early.
The continued nonsense in New York is yet another reason to root for the Rangers this week. Jeff Fletcher of AOL notes that a Rangers-Giants series would present one relatively interesting storyline: Rangers catcher Bengie Molina would be facing the Giants pitchers he used to catch before being dealt midseason.
On this day in 1982, the Brewers took an early 3-1 lead but could not hold on, and the Cardinals won 6-3 to clinch the World Series.
No birthdays today, but it is a Woot-off day.
Drink up.
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That has been a theory for a while now.
But I remember seeing something, a sports science show maybe, a year or two ago where they proved that there really is a significant break in a curve.
by Noah Jarosh on Oct 20, 2010 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Garza's available, eh?
I’ve liked him for a while. Don’t know what it would take to get him, but he’d be a nice guy to slot into the rotation, definite upgrade from Bush.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
I love the guy too, but he is a bit deceiving.
But I think he only has 2 years left of arbitration. This year was his first year. Was he a super 2?
He only put up a 1.8 WAR this year and is projected to have mid 2 WARs the next few years.
I think he is a lot like a former Ray, Scott Kazmir, who had amazing stuff, but walks a ton of guys and gets in trouble.
If the Brewers were to add him, they could do it with Fielder, and throw in half of the $16 mil Fielder is due next year. If this were the case they could maybe get Garza ($11 surplus value) and a top prospect (the Rays arent giving up Hellickson under any circumstance, or Jennings for that matter), or a couple of lower level guys (ranked in the 75 to 100 range on the BA list.
This would give the Brewers a staff of 1) non existant ace, 2) Gallardo, 3) Garza, 4) Wolf, 5) Narveson. They wind up about 6 wins less than this year, and in a worse position W/L wise. I think even with a Garza and Greinke pick up, they team still falls short by about 5 or 6 games in the end.
I wouldnt mind picking up Garza if it also included two of Colome, McGee, Torres or Barnese in exchange for Fielder and $8 million. It makes the team better in 2013 and beyond.
The linked post said Garza was a Super 2 in 2010.
In that case, he’d have three years of team control left.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Oct 20, 2010 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Odd thing about him being a super 2
Is that that extra year doesnt incredibly increase his surplus value. Maybe adds and extra $1mm or so.
I agree that the team should try to improve, but at what cost? There’s no hiding the fact that Id much rather have the consistent 85 win team that gets lucky or does really well that one or two years and makes the playoffs versus a 90 win team once every 10. I think its a pretty good idea if they added Garza and a couple of prospects 2 years away. But to do something like add Greinke while giving up Lawrie and Odirizzi is pretty irresponsible and very short term minded, and in the end, they probably would still miss the playoffs, sell fhe farm, and in two years instead of being a 75 win team, be a 65 win team.
I am much more content with a couple of 75 win teams or even a 71 win team if they are building themselves to a consistent 85 win team.
by backtocali on Oct 20, 2010 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
“I am much more content with a couple of 75 win teams or even a 71 win team if they are building themselves to a consistent 85 win team.”
Of this, we are all well aware.
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
by theBrouhaha on Oct 20, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Oct 20, 2010 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Then again
Odorizzi might never pitch in the big leagues, or might Hendrickson it up when he does. TINSTASCMP
New and improved: http://www.twitter.com/ackchooairy
Note: Improvement not guaranteed.
but if the Brewers do trade Odorizzi in a package for Greinke
Greinke will leave 2 years from now and eventually the Brewers will be left with neither Odorizzi nor Greinke. I’d rather have several years of cheap yet high-ceiling talent than 2 years of expensive ace-caliber performance
by ilikeburritos on Oct 20, 2010 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions
That wasn't my point
eventually the team isn’t going to have odorizzi either. everyone leaves eventually. My point was that as high of an upside a guy might have, there’s always a decent chance they won’t do anything of any relevance in their career.
New and improved: http://www.twitter.com/ackchooairy
Note: Improvement not guaranteed.
by Mykenk on Oct 20, 2010 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
and, at this point, I’d take my chances with Greinke who is a proven commodity, young, and could possibly be had at an extension
I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful
Idk if the Brewers can extend Greinke
I’m guessing that in 2 years Greinke is going to demand 20mil per year or more
by ilikeburritos on Oct 20, 2010 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Probably
but only if he continues pitching like he has been and the market still supports that.
Besides, we already have a pitcher who has given us several years of cheap yet high-ceiling talent (Parra) and that hasn’t gotten us very far.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
How is it possible that an entire extra year is worth $1 million of surplus value?
This is a guy who likely projects for 30 starts, 180+ IP andd a sub-4.00 ERA.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Calculation problem
But the super 2 guys get that 4th year as a pretty big salary. In his 1st arb year Garza got $3.35 million. Just imagine how much it increases this year and then two more times. All this while his numbers are projected to come down a bit. that last arb year is probably a wash or pretty close to it.
DRaysBay predicts his next 3 salaries as 5, 6.5, 8.
He’s been worth 8 WAR over the last three years, or ~2.6 WAR/season.
If you assume a win as worth $4.5 million, that’s $36 million in value minus $19.5 million in salary, or $16.5 million surplus. The last year is worth $3.7 million.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
And even that probably underestimates his value a bit.
He’ll likely get a significant stat bump by moving from the AL East to the NL Central.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
No I have him at around $10
Throw in the $8 million in salary it would take for a team like Tampa to take him on, thats where I get it as a one for one.
Correct that
Fielder real surplus = approx $10 million
+ 50% premium = $15 million
+ half of 2011 salary = $23 million approx
But Garza should probably get a big premium to (based on non tangibles) that puts them pretty close.
They don't want Fielder, of this I am sure
Why do you think that paying market value in the final year is a bad deal? You can’t underpay everybody. If you pay everybody what they’re worth, nobody has surplus value, it’s a nice but if you want to make the team better you might have to commit paying for projected market value for a good pitcher 3 years down the road.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Thats also assuming a 2.6 WAR then that final year
Not entirely beyond the scope of possibility.
But this year, with no injury issues, he put up 1.8 when he was projected to have more than twice that. BP has him going this year from 3.7 down to 2.7, 2.4 and then 2.2. I would assume that this years disappointing years drops his numbers beyond what they were before the season began.
Not exactly sure why they have him projected on the low side. Could be because of workload issues.
I’m a fan of the guy (despite the fact he went to Fresno State).
"Consistent 85 win team"
Is that even possible for a small market team?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Re: Gallardo
in your opinion, how many aces are there in Major League baseball?
New and improved: http://www.twitter.com/ackchooairy
Note: Improvement not guaranteed.
by Mykenk on Oct 20, 2010 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Id say there are about 15 of them in the entire league
Gallardo is close, he has ace type stuff, but he needs to work on pitching to contact, lowering his walks and going deeper into games more consistently.
By that definition
Lincecum isn’t an ace! He walks too many and struck out too many. :)
I’d love to see Gallardo cut down his walk rate (which he did this year) and pitch deeper into games (didn’t really this year) but I would hate to see him pitch to contact with the subpar defense behind him. A power pitcher fares much better with a bad defense behind him than a contact guy, that’s why they’re so valuable.
Right now, his peripherals compare well to a lot of perennial Cy Young candidates, even with his 3.6 BB/9 rate. If he lowers that walk rate even more, he compares well to Hall of Famers in their prime. I don’t see how this season didn’t put him in the “ace” category.
by kingcharlesxii on Oct 20, 2010 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
He's very close
and its probably hair splitting, but in order for a guy to be considered an ace he should be putting up elite numbers (5 WAR or above). He didnt even average getting into the 6th inning in his starts this year.
If he pitches more to contact, his pitch count stays low. He’s still young, and he has great stuff, but he needs consistency, imo, before he is an ace. His stuff right now is just not producing the way it should, when that happens he will be an ace. Right now hes a really good #2 starting pitcher with #1 starter stuff.
I broke down the quintiles agian this year
- 3.08 ERA 6.41 innings
- 3.57/6.21
- 4.11/6.11
- 4.57/5.83
- 5.52/5.43
So it would be nice if Gallardo went a little deeper.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Yo's still young
he has plenty of time to improve. Is he a legit ace right now? no. Will he be one in the near future? yes
by ilikeburritos on Oct 20, 2010 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions
So since he was the 16th best pitcher by WAR, he's on the cusp.
Okay.
New and improved: http://www.twitter.com/ackchooairy
Note: Improvement not guaranteed.
sigh
Do you think he is an ace?
If he were to put up the 5 WAR that I use as a guage, Id give him due creit. I admitted its probably hair splitting, but the guy just isnt an ace yet. And there are quite a lot of people on this board that agree.
Yeah, I think he's an ace. (Recent development, would have said no in July)
I figured he’d have been in the top 10 in WAR had he not been hurt and shut down early (assumption, i know, but whatever). Just trying to gauge what you think an ace is, I’ll admit there’s no clear defining point, and no real need for one.
New and improved: http://www.twitter.com/ackchooairy
Note: Improvement not guaranteed.
by Mykenk on Oct 20, 2010 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think he needs to work on a few things
If he cut down on the walks and, as BtC said, pitched more to contact, I think he’s be a legitimate ‘ace’. For me, an ‘ace’ is most largely defined by his ability to be a stopper and bullpen saviour. If Gallardo can average greater than 6 IP per start, I’ll be happy.
Not that I’m not happy now. He just needs to stop walking people and keep his PC down.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 20, 2010 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions
lets debate semantics for another 50 posts
who cares what an ace is? yovani is just good and he probably is living it up right now
Ninety-five percent of kids out there are concerned with being popular and fitting in. If you're part of that five percent who aren't, copy this, put it in your sig, and add your name to the list. George W. Bush, AnimeKittyCafe, Hyperactivley Bored, Gem W, Bara- Minamino, Yabie Aelinel, Crazy Billie Joe Loving Freak, Shadow929, The Astrology Nerd, Browned-angelofmusic, Piratesswriter/ fairy to be, The Gypsy- PirateQueen, Caffy91, Lady of the Serpents, taynzpink, JayJay3493, Randy Taylor, Colin Creevey, Rewind
Just like me.
New and improved: http://www.twitter.com/ackchooairy
Note: Improvement not guaranteed.
proof of living it up requested
in what manner do you live it up, friend?
Ninety-five percent of kids out there are concerned with being popular and fitting in. If you're part of that five percent who aren't, copy this, put it in your sig, and add your name to the list. George W. Bush, AnimeKittyCafe, Hyperactivley Bored, Gem W, Bara- Minamino, Yabie Aelinel, Crazy Billie Joe Loving Freak, Shadow929, The Astrology Nerd, Browned-angelofmusic, Piratesswriter/ fairy to be, The Gypsy- PirateQueen, Caffy91, Lady of the Serpents, taynzpink, JayJay3493, Randy Taylor, Colin Creevey, Rewind
I thought you didn't want to debate semantics.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Oct 20, 2010 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
I debate
12 year olds (or persons impersonating 12 year olds) on the internet. Could my life be better?
New and improved: http://www.twitter.com/ackchooairy
Note: Improvement not guaranteed.
by Mykenk on Oct 20, 2010 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I'd call you to come over and play
but my mother won’t let me out of my basement apartment
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
That's fine
I’m grounded anyway.
New and improved: http://www.twitter.com/ackchooairy
Note: Improvement not guaranteed.
compared to 2009
I think Yo’s gone deeper into games. hopefully he keeps up the trend
by ilikeburritos on Oct 20, 2010 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions
He was able to go deeper into games MORE OFTEN
He also had quite a few shorter games, so if you look at his stats from around the time that he pitched his first CG, his average IP/Game actually went down as the season went on. But his PITCHES/IP went down, which is very good.
I’d say he struggled with inconsistency in the second half of the season, possibly due to his workload. I would just call them growing pains, though, because he certainly seemed to grow quite a bit this season as a pitcher.
I think Mykenk and I agree completely with each other about Gallardo. I’d say we can feel free to call him an ace now.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I'm guessing that Yo's overall stats would have been better if he didn't have the injury
by ilikeburritos on Oct 20, 2010 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Just like everyone elses.
New and improved: http://www.twitter.com/ackchooairy
Note: Improvement not guaranteed.
BTW - to address one of your underlying points in a more blanket fashion:
A) I recognize that no one player makes the Brewers a playoff team at this point.
B) I don’t think that should prevent them from trying to improve the team.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Oct 20, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Exactly
Which is the point I’m trying to make. Now you always get a team like the Padres or Reds who can suddenly put it together, but even with a guy like Garza, you’re giving yourself a chance in the next few years as younger players come in and others mature.
Just hard to predict how things go: two or three guys have huge years and next thing you know you’ve got yourself in good position to contend.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Oct 20, 2010 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Now you DONT always get a team like the Padres or Reds*
Sorry, that sounded confusing
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Oct 20, 2010 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
It depends what you have to give up though.
If it hurts us in 2012 and beyond I don’t think we should make the move.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Yup. You should try to make the team as good as you can.
But if the move isn’t going to put you into the playoffs, it had better not destroy the future that you are building too. It’s called “rebuilding.”
http://www.mlbsoup.com
That being said, I'd rather see a move for Garza than Greinke because of the extra year
and possibly the lower cost.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
^^^ This ^^^
Greinke would cost the farm and we’re more than 1 pitcher away from the playoffs, especially if/when Fielder is traded. Garza is a good #2 and would still be around when guys like Lawrie, Heckathorn, Rivas, and maybe even Odorizzi will make us a possible contender.
The idea of trading for Greinke is so short-sighted it makes my head spin.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 20, 2010 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions
"More than 1 pitcher away from the playoffs"?
I’m not so sure about that. I’d say that Gallardo, Wolf and Narveson are fully capable of being as good as any three of the 2008 rotation (less Sabathia).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I am not so sure about that.
Our starting pitching was pretty good that year. Gallardo can probably match Sheets year but Bush put up a 4.28 ERA and Parra a 4.30 ERA as starters. We only had 2 pitchers with an ERA over 4.5 as starters that year. One was Suppan at 4.96 and Villanueva at 6.43. That wasn’t a year of the pitcher either. Our offense and defense are not as good as that year either.
If I thought we were one pitcher away or we were in first place at or close to the all start break I would advocate trading for Greinke. I think we need more than just Greinke.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
We had a starter ERA of 3.86
compared to a NL average of 4.43. Without CC I think we are probably at about 87 wins in 2008.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
More like 85
CC had 4.6 WAR with the Brewers in the 3 months he was with the team. Take him away and it drops the wins at least 4.
Pretty sure that's wrong.
Unless you’re replacing him with someone at replacement value, which I don’t think would be the case.
New and improved: http://www.twitter.com/ackchooairy
Note: Improvement not guaranteed.
by Mykenk on Oct 21, 2010 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Cant speculate
but what the team had on hand at the time, McClung or Villanueva would have been the options. Who were around replacement level.
I went on the
conservative side and just doubled the runs CC gave up and rounded up. CC gave up 24 runs over 130ish innings. Probably a little low and I would agree 85 is more accurate but either way 87 or 85 we miss the playoffs. Even if our offense next year is equal to 2008 our defense is probably going to be worse so we would need better pitching than the 2008 team had. That team got some really good pitching.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Offense and defense
The only changes to the starting lineup from 2008 to now are SS (Hardy vs. Escobar), 3B (Hall vs. McGehee), CF (Cameron vs. Gomez/Cain) and C (Kendall vs. Lucroy).
From an offensive standpoint, we definitely have a loss at SS and CF, but McGehee and Lucroy are upgrades in their respective positions.
On the defensive side, the only significant loss would be at SS (at worst – if Escobar doesn’t improve over this year).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Lucroy
Wasn’t an offensive or deffensive upgrade from Kendall at all, though he has the ability to improve in 2011.
Get a ife broseph
Fielder and Braun both had
down years in 2008. We scored 750 runs in 2008 and 750 in 2010.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I think I'm following, just want to clarify
Really, Braun’s 2010 was worse than his 2008 while Prince’s 2008 was worse than his 2010.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 21, 2010 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions
That's a good question
Re: Braun
Better to have a .365 / .500 guy or a .335 / .550 guy? I’m sure there is a sabermetric answer for this somewhere…..(paging Jordan)
Get a ife broseph
Mmm
I was just looking at WAR:
Braun:
4.6/4.2 (08/10)
Fielder:
2.7/4.1
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 21, 2010 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I was looking it up better
and I think both Fielder’s and Braun’s wOBA’s in 2010 were almost identical to their 2008 wOBA’s. I still think the offense in 2011 will be pretty comparable to 2008 but I have to admit I am sort of flip flopping on it yet.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I looked and the offense is
probably a wash 2008 compared to 2011 is we keep Fielder. McGehee at 3B is a huge downgrade defensively at 3B from what we had in 2008.(nope wrong on that one, about the same) Braun and Hart are getting worse in the corners.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
"if" we keep Fielder
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Getting worse
Where do you get that Braun and Hart are getting worse in the corners? Both of their dWAR was higher this past season than 2008.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Where are you getting this dWAR from?
Braun UZR/150
2008 2.9
2010 (-8.2)
Hart
2008 (-4.8)
2010 (-7.0)
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Ok, I thought it might be
the defensive portion of WAR on Fangraphs. B-R and Fangraphs calculate WAR differently.
I like to use UZR and DRS along with the “eye” test. I don’t like to use just one stat in the case of defense. They are not as good as offensive stats yet. I am waiting for free fieldFX data. We are probably a few years away yet.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
FWIW
I agree completely. Using stats exclusively or the ‘eye test’ exclusively lead to incorrect assumptions, in my opinion. Combining the two of them, one generally gets a good feel for the player in question.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 22, 2010 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
DRS has us at -35 runs in 2010 near the bottom
and had us at 49 runs in 2008, near the top. UZR had us around average both years. I think DRS tries to encompass more stuff like outfield arms, 1B scoops and other stuff.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Only?
4/9 is only?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 21, 2010 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Durr
I’m a tard.
Don’t everyone rush to agree at once.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 21, 2010 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Picking up Garza wouldn't be for an immediate turn around
It’d be for a longer term As Kyle notes below, as well as on other sites, he has 3 years of team control, one year more than Wolf. It’d seem more likely they’d try to extend him soon after then too.
I don’t think Tampa wants any part of Fielder because they don’t wanna spend the money, and I doubt Melvin would wanna shell out 8 mil for someone who’s not even playing for us. So it’d have to be a prospect deal, but I think the Brewers could somehow manage it without having to part with Lawrie or Odorizzi.
Greinke is a stretch, Garza seems like more of a reality. He’s not a great pitcher, but a fairly solid one, and they need to start getting those kinds of guys on the team. It’s rare to have 2 aces like the Phillies and Cardinals all the time.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Oct 20, 2010 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Probably right on Fielder
But Garza is the type of guy Melvin thinks is prime return for Fielder (granted not all by himself), so he might be willing to throw in some money to help the return. He hasnt ever had a problem with paying big money for guys that arent on the team anymore.
If it were strictly a deal for Garza, Id put his surplus value at about $16 million, which means Tampa Bay would want a big prospect, or a guy like Casey McGehee or a young player.
I dont know if Tampa is a good trading partner for the Brewers, the Rays are going to want cheap young talent in return, which the Brewers wont want to give up.
Cubs offered Sandberg a job, he turned it down.
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The manager job?
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
by theBrouhaha on Oct 20, 2010 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions
The only thing I saw
Was Will Carroll tweeting that he was “offered a position.”
Also, Carroll is about as reliable as Nick Cafardo when it comes to rumors.
Get a ife broseph
I laugh out loud when Cafardo and reliability are mentioned in the same sentence
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
by theBrouhaha on Oct 20, 2010 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Speaking of Cafardo
He dropped an interesting name in an article about leaguewide manager searches: “The Jays have eliminated Tim Wallach and Brett Lawrie. But not many others.”
I never use a big word when a diminutive word would suffice.
rec'd
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
by theBrouhaha on Oct 20, 2010 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
He *was* in BA's Top 5 prospect managers
Some scouts are saying he’s a managing prodigy. A real life Billy Heywood.
"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto
I believe the position he was offered...
…involved grabbing his ankles.
I'd guess it was bench coach, but that's a lose-lose for all involved.
For Quade, having Sandberg over his shoulder would immediately open him up to controversy if he struggles. Talk radio would start calling for his firing in April, pointing to the fact that his replacement was right there.
For Sandberg, it’s a step towards the majors but not the one he wanted.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Apparently not even that
He was just offered his same job at AAA again next year.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Oct 20, 2010 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's Chicago
They’d call for the Sandberg swap after the Cubs lose their first game.
That being said, I’m in Chicago this week, and their papers seemed to like the move. Then again, reporters don’t exactly want to get on a guy’s bad side before their first interview..
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I'm not really into conspiracy theories
But knowing how much MLB and the networks and etc. would prefer the Yankees to be in the WS, I got a kind of sick feeling when they chose not to review the interference on Cano’s home run. I’ll admit to not being able to figure out what they count as interference and what they don’t, but the guy obviously tried to grab Cruz’s glove. How can they not take a look at that?
by The Left Button on Oct 20, 2010 11:40 AM CDT reply actions
It was kind a controversial play, true
But I think even if it did get reviewed it wouldn’t have gotten overturned, cause I don’t think he makes that play even if he wasn’t interfered.
It would have been worse if they didn’t review the Berkman HR.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Oct 20, 2010 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think a review would've overturned that call
But if you’re not going to use replay in questionable situations like that, then why have it?
Also, the fans’ denial of wrongdoing made me want to toss one of them off the wall. Maybe they didn’t impact the play directly, but it sure as hell wasn’t from a lack of effort.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
if you’re not going to use replay in questionable situations like that, then why have it?
This is exactly my thought. I was also confused by how TBS explained that the call wasn’t challengable because of the call the umpire made on the field. What call could the umpire have made so that the play was reviewable? Would he have had to call interference on the field and then go to replay to back it up?
Also, because my wife asked me and I didn’t know the answer, in the case that interference is called on a home run like that, what is the result of the play? A do-over? An out?
Towlieppan: "You wanna throw high?"
The interference call itself
isn’t reviewable, which is stupid. You can’t review to see if there was interference, you can only review to see if the ball was or wasn’t a homerun. My guess? This will change.
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I could have sworn they said last night
that you could review fan interference. Maybe I’m remembering that wrong though.
Towlieppan: "You wanna throw high?"
No, I think you're right
At least according to Wiki…
“In Major League Baseball, a system similar to that in the National Hockey League for the last month of the 2008 season and beyond was implemented on August 28, 2008. The system allows instant replay to be used to review boundary home run calls to determine:
- fair (home run) or foul
- whether the ball actually left the playing field
- whether the ball was subject to spectator interference”
This is news to me… I only thought it applied to the first two points.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Fan interference
If the umpires ruled spectator interference on that play, the batter is out.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Weird play
Cruz’s glove was hit, but the ball was definitely going over the fence anyways.
Get a ife broseph
Right
Cruz wouldn’t have been able to catch that ball even if the fans didn’t reach out for the ball.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Not to mention
once the ball is over the wall, the fan has just as much right to it as Cruz does.
New and improved: http://www.twitter.com/ackchooairy
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Right
When a fan reaches into playing field, they are subject to a spectator interference call. When a fielder reaches into the stands to try to catch a ball, no interference can be called.
On that play with Cruz, however, it looked like the fans were reaching over the wall, which would be subject to an interference call.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
What is reviewable...
Current rules only allow replay to be used if there is a question whether a batted ball is a home run or not (like Berkman’s foul ball).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Ignore this
I guess I’m wrong about that… at least according to Wiki.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Some details on Greinke's NTC
From: MLBTR
The Royals will listen to offers for the 2009 Cy Young Award winner, but not every club has a realistic shot at acquiring him. Zack Greinke will be able to block trades to half of the teams in baseball between now and the 2011 trade deadline, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The Kansas City Star recently reported that Greinke would be able to block deals to eight to ten teams, but FOX Sports is reporting that he’ll have even more leverage.
Greinke’s contract runs through 2012, but he loses the right to block trades after next year’s July 31st trade deadline, according to Morosi. The right-hander could block trades to 20 teams including the Yankees and Red Sox during the 2009-10 seasons. Small market teams including the Rays were on Greinke’s list of acceptable destinations from 2009-10 (it’s possible that the list has since changed). Potential suitors will face a $13.5MM salary in both 2011 and 2012 plus the Royals’ asking price in prospects.
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Eff it
I’ll take him.
Give them Lawrie and Gamel and call it a day. I mean do they even want Lawrie and Gamel? How about Lawrie and Odorizzi? Fine. Take it.
Then trade Prince for some prospects, put Gamel at 3B while McGehee mans 1B. As long as Gamel can put up McGehee numbers (I think he can, given the shot), we’re not missing out on much production, considering Prince’s 2010. Granted that assumes Weeks’ and McGehee’s seasons won’t regress to the toilet, but also assumes that Ryan Braun’s 2010 will be the standard for him (TBD).
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 20, 2010 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions
marlow for general manager
this plan is an genius as it is innovative. i can’t believe i hadn’t thought of moving casey mcgehee (a better defender than gamel despite gamels excellent arm) to first base. gamel plays right field ;x
gamel has more power than casey i’d say, maybe more on base ability. he was a league average hitter in sporadic playing time as a rookie; he can hit, yo.
mortgage the team’s future in the hopes of greinke being fairly good for a year with us. backtocali, i’m activating the cherry grove oath that exists between us for you to back me up here
Ninety-five percent of kids out there are concerned with being popular and fitting in. If you're part of that five percent who aren't, copy this, put it in your sig, and add your name to the list. George W. Bush, AnimeKittyCafe, Hyperactivley Bored, Gem W, Bara- Minamino, Yabie Aelinel, Crazy Billie Joe Loving Freak, Shadow929, The Astrology Nerd, Browned-angelofmusic, Piratesswriter/ fairy to be, The Gypsy- PirateQueen, Caffy91, Lady of the Serpents, taynzpink, JayJay3493, Randy Taylor, Colin Creevey, Rewind
Jesus.
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by Mykenk on Oct 20, 2010 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
mykenk couldn't control himself as he clicked 'post'
no matter how hard he tried, he felt compulsed to reply to every single post farteater made. ‘ah, nublets’ he said through giggles reading his own post.
Ninety-five percent of kids out there are concerned with being popular and fitting in. If you're part of that five percent who aren't, copy this, put it in your sig, and add your name to the list. George W. Bush, AnimeKittyCafe, Hyperactivley Bored, Gem W, Bara- Minamino, Yabie Aelinel, Crazy Billie Joe Loving Freak, Shadow929, The Astrology Nerd, Browned-angelofmusic, Piratesswriter/ fairy to be, The Gypsy- PirateQueen, Caffy91, Lady of the Serpents, taynzpink, JayJay3493, Randy Taylor, Colin Creevey, Rewind
You have a couple of grammatical errors, let me help you with that
mykenkfarteatercouldn’t control himself as he clicked ‘post’
no matter how hard he tried, hefelt compulsed to reply to every single post farteater made.couldn’t write a post that wasn’t an ignorant and arrogant rant. ‘ah, nublets’ he said through giggles reading his own post.
Towlieppan: "You wanna throw high?"
by GoGregGo on Oct 20, 2010 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
Nothing like an idiot to wilt meaningful and interesting baseball discussion
Wish I had an IP ban button.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 20, 2010 5:26 PM CDT reply actions 5 recs
What I think
is that the Brewers should improve themselves with prospects rather than veterans or expensive aces. they’re not the Yankees so they shouldn’t try too hard to get the big name pitchers out there such as Greinke and Lee. I’m not saying that they should completely give up on trades or FA but it would probably be better for them if they drafted well(or at least be lucky in the drafts) and develop the young farm talents. So in short I think that the Brewers should follow the Rays in terms of how to improve
So, are they done with the 15 years of being terrible and accumulating top draft picks yet?
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by Mykenk on Oct 20, 2010 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I mean that they shouldn't spend over 20mil a year for pitchers like Lee
and that they shouldn’t trade away their whole farm system for top name pitchers who aren’t gonna stick around for more than 3 years. they don’t necessarily have to get top draft picks like Strasburg, but they should build at least half of their rotation with draft picks and other prospects from trades. The pitchers don’t have to be Cliff Lee, or Roy Oswalt, or Roy Halladay, etc. There are supposed to be good pitchers coming up in the next draft so I guess the Brewers could build from there.
by ilikeburritos on Oct 20, 2010 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions
If it were that easy, all MLB teams would be drafting pitchers and getting pitching prospects... to save money.
But it isn’t. The Rays had 10 years straight of losing seasons before they turned things around (last three seasons).
Most prospects and draft picks don’t pan out.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Oct 20, 2010 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
but as for the near future I think that a rotation with Odorizzi, Yo, and a young ML ready prospect from the Fielder trade would be good enough
by ilikeburritos on Oct 20, 2010 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I kind of doubt Fielder will bring back
anything of consequence. We would have to kick in part of his salary, which shouldn’t be a problem, but Fielder is only going to stick around for a year no matter where he goes. Fielder might actualy have more value mid season than he does right now.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Odorizzi is 4-5 years from contributing at the big league level
if he ever will.
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still he's the best pitcher the Brewers have in their farm system
plus they can’t trade away their entire farm system just because the prospects are unpredictable
by ilikeburritos on Oct 20, 2010 7:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Meaningful member of the rotation.
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4-5 years is way too long of an estimate.
If he splits 2011 between A+ and AA, then he’d open 2012 in AAA and presumably be ready for a callup around midseason. Even if they stick with one year per level, he’d be in AAA in 2013 and almost certainly poised for a midseason callup.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I agree we'll see him in 2-3 years (2013)
but don’t think he’ll be a meaningful member of the rotation (getting anything but spot starts) for 4-5 years (2014-2015)
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Gallardo was a meaningful member of the rotation (by your definition)
pretty much as soon as he was called up.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 20, 2010 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Well
that speaks to the lack of other talent in the rotation.
But, yes, that is true.
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The talent in our current rotation isn't really all that good either.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
It's much better than it was
when Gallardo came up.
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I would say it is about the same.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I'd agree with that
Sheets – Bush – Suppan – Cappy – Vargas
Yo – Wolf – Bush – Narveson – Parra
I get that if Ordorizzi progresses as we all hope, doesn’t get hurt and actually makes it to the big leagues he might not be great his first year, but why would he only get spot starts?
Get a ife broseph
Ideally we'd have decent pitchers already
and not be desperate for starts from a rookie.
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Ideally we would have
had that pitching in 2009 and 2010. Even if we add 2 pitchers this year, Wolf is gone after 2012 which would leave us with Gallardo, 2 guys and Narveson provided we didn’t do something like trading for Greinke in which case we would have Gallardo one guy and Narveson. Odorizzi only has to be clearly better than one guy. I am not sold on Narveson at this point either.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Of course if we get 2 good pitchers
there is a good chance Odorizzi goes back to a team in trade making the whole discussion moot.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
that could be a tad aggressive
He’s going to go from one pitchers league to another next Spring, and even if he does get a mid season call up to AA, the adjustment to a more hitter friendly league and the number of starts may not be enough to earn or even warrant a AAA spot for the following year.
I see what Mykenk is saying, but I wouldnt rely heavily on Odirizzi until at least until 2014. He would have to blow away the competition the next two seasons to move that timetable up significantly. I just dont think hes on that fast of a track right now.
Even then
That’s only three years away.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Oct 21, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 19 | .568 | 0 | Won 6 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Houston
|
21 | 23 | .477 | 4 | Won 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
20 | 24 | .454 | 5 | Lost 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
18 | 26 | .409 | 7 | Won 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 29 | .340 | 10 | Lost 9 |
(updated 5.25.2012 at 3:41 AM CDT)
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