Huff and Martinez

by 1BCOACH on Nov 26, 2010 1:31 AM CST

Maybe I missed it but thought there'd be more 'bummer' discussion about Huff resigning with San Fran and Detroit signing Martinez. Both situations reduce Fielder trade for a stud pitcher options don't they? With those moves who is really left for the Brewers trade options regarding Fielder? Atlanta made their move for offense with Uggla. In my very uninformed opinion only the ChiSox are left as an option. Maybe that road has been traveled enough that everyone is past the possibility of a Fielder trade but c'mon!! Where's the SPUNK?!?!?!?

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TWreck is that you?

I think the “spunk” has slowly left the fanbase with the realization that Doug Melvin will remain the GM of the team until the end of 2012, and his inflated value of his own players.

You are probably right when it comes to the White Sox unfortunately. A straight up Gavin Floyd for Prince Fielder would be a steal for the Brewers, with Floyd locked up cheaply for 3 years and the very good projected production.

One other possibility could be the Blue Jays, but as we all know DM isnt going to get what he wants from them (a frontline MLB starting pitcher), whereas the Kyle Drabek and Anthony Gose would be a very good return (if offered but unlikely).

Melvin has deluded himself right out of the Prince Fielder market and its probably going to cost the team at least 2 to 3 years in its pursuit of the playoffs. But if Old Vegas has its way he will keep pushing for that Fielder for Greinke trade and “put them” right back into contention for the NL Central (forgetting of couse that the small market Royals who are rebuilding have no use for a $16 million rental or that the Brewer farm system is devoid of the top tier talent that the Royals seek).

by backtocali on Nov 26, 2010 11:15 AM CST reply actions

Not TWreck

Thanks for your thoughts. Sad that it has come to this regarding Melvin.
MAYBE (read BIG MAYBE) Melvin will surprise us all with that trade for Floyd. Is he a #2 type with #1 potential? If so it’d be a shame for the ChiSox to give him up. I used to think it was a foregone conclusion that Fielder would be traded. Now it doesn’t seem to make sense at all.
Oh well, I’ll have a damn sweet time watching him crush 40+ dingers this year as he tries to amp up his free agent value.

by 1BCOACH on Nov 28, 2010 8:57 AM CST up reply actions

Trade calculator

unfortunately BTC, you have your head stuffed so far into those spreadsheets of yours that you have forgotten one major component of trade value – when you are trading away your franchise stud, it shouldn’t be a fair deal. If you are going to commit PR suicide, you need to leave the team better off for your successor.

You have said it yourself 143 times, because of Fielder’s expected contract this year, the only value he has is in his draft picks. If that is the case then why would any other team trade for him? Take the draft picks if he leaves.

by Saberilliterate on Nov 29, 2010 5:55 AM CST up reply actions

Well maybe this is part of the problem

Does the team want long term success, or do they want good PR? Granted, Attanasio is an infinitely better owner than the Seligs were, but if the PR impact is more important than winning games, and long term success, then there is a problem there.

Floyd for Fielder would be an over payment for the White Sox to the tune of about 1/3rd at the worst to 2/3rds at the best. So would have Hudson/Viciedo last July. Melvin seems to be looking for the extreme overpayment, and that is foolish and irresponsible. They havent won the last two years with him, so whats the harm in dealing him for prospects, if you arent going to win with him again without pitching?

I dont think taking the picks is the best route. It delays any return on investment by at least 2 to 3 years, and also makes the team that much worse for that length of time. If they dealt Fielder for a prospect package like I had wished last July, they may have had to wait a year or two at the most, instead of now possibly waiting to develop a draft pick in 3 or 4 years. The whole philosophy of this organization has been incredibly short sighted the last 2 years, and PR moves arent going to make things better.

by backtocali on Nov 29, 2010 8:22 AM CST up reply actions

Considering how dependent the Brewers are on the gate receipts – bad PR means less clicks on the turnstile which means less money to spend – so guess what – PR is long term success

by Saberilliterate on Nov 29, 2010 8:34 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs

Not if you stop winning

Theyre not winning with Fielder now, and holding onto him, in lieu of pitching will happen again. The gate is going to be down a lot this year would be my guess, and it will continue to get worse for the forseeable future unless they build the team for long term success.

PR only goes so far. You cant really increase PR/Gate numbers if youre winning 75 games a year, at some point (2011 and beyond) people stop caring and stop showing up. At least if you pull the trigger now, take the hit, and improve the team 2 years out and beyond for 6 more, you get it all back in spades. Just too much short term thinking going on in this organization for me.

by backtocali on Nov 29, 2010 10:02 AM CST up reply actions

aren't GMs typically let go near the beginning of their last year under contract

assuming an extension is off the table?

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 29, 2010 6:18 AM CST up reply actions

I'm not really that bummed

It’s looked like for a while that the best option was to keep Prince and enjoy his production and take the picks when he leaves.

by nullacct on Nov 29, 2010 12:01 AM CST reply actions

The picks count for a lot

When you factor those in I don’t think you could say that getting Gavin Floyd would be a steal for The Brewers.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 29, 2010 2:30 PM CST up reply actions

As much as this might shock you coming from me

The picks are riskier than already established prospects.

The picks are worth approximately $5 million. So if you let Fielder stick around all year and miss the playoffs again, the team gets $5 million, Fielder is worth about $4 million by himself because of the size of his salary this year and expected performance.

But if you can get a team to pay for twice his value in a trade, the team gets about $20 million worth of product as opposed to just that $5 million from the draft picks.

Gavin Floyd is locked up for 3 years at a relatively low rate. Compared to his epxected performance those 3 years, including comp draft picks, he is probably worth about $26 to $28 million.

So yeah, its a steal if the Brewers were to pick up Floyd if it were a one for one deal for Fielder. $28 million is much more money than $9 million. Even if the White Sox won the World Series with Fielder having an all star year, its still an over payment.

by backtocali on Nov 29, 2010 4:02 PM CST up reply actions

If the White Sox knew for a fact that they would win a WS if they got Fielder...

They would take it in an instant, and give up more than Floyd to get it. Perhaps a poor way to phrase your point.

by cwolf20 on Nov 29, 2010 7:24 PM CST up reply actions

I like the Huff signing

It helps put a lower value on Fielders last year.

In addition, like nullacct, I have been looking at the Brewers keeping him through the contract and then taking the two first rounders we get for compensation. If he signs somewhere else. You are still looking at two other (better?) first basemen being on the market next winter in Pujols and Gonzalez. Factor in the number of teams who are looking for and willing to pay for a stud first baseman and the Brewers may get lucky enough to retain Fielder.

by Saberilliterate on Nov 29, 2010 5:49 AM CST reply actions

Hrm.

by Bush League All Star on Dec 1, 2010 1:34 AM CST reply actions

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