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Tuesday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while solving the problem.

It's probably a little early to start referring to him as "the next Jim Edmonds," but an interesting possibility presented itself yesterday: Jarrod Washburn, who took the 2010 season off, is looking to return to baseball and the Brewers are rumored to be a candidate to sign him. Like Edmonds a year ago, Washburn sat out a season when teams failed to meet his contractual demands. He posted a 3.78 ERA for the Mariners and Tigers in 2009.

I must admit, I'm a little surprised to see some immediate backlash against this rumor. Both Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar and Jim Breen of Bernie's Crew immediately came out against the possibility of signing Washburn this offseason. I guess my reaction would depend on what kind of contract he's seeking, but I'd be more than willing to offer him an incentive-laden deal like Jim Edmonds signed a year ago with an opt-out clause if he's not on the Opening Day roster.

Yesterday we discussed the possibility that the Brewers could trade Casey McGehee to the A's this offseason for starting pitching. In the comments, backtocali said this (emphasis mine):

As with the case is right now with Fielder, though, (Doug Melvin) probably would have an inflated view of McGehee due to the RBI numbers, and might not be able to pull off the beneficial deal.

A few hours later, Tom Haudricourt tweeted this (again with my emphasis):

I wouldn't think the Brewers would be anxious to trade McGehee. He doesn't make much money and is a 100 RBI guy.

I'm going to need a softer desk.

Elsewhere in Speculationville: MLB Trade Rumors unveiled their list of the top 50 free agents yesterday, and they're predicting the Brewers will sign Derrek Lee and Kevin Correia. I could see the team giving Correia a shot, but I'd be very surprised to see them pursue Lee.

With that said, they have been in touch with another Lee: The Brewers Bar noted that the Brewers have been mentioned among the list of teams that have contacted Cliff Lee's agent to discuss possibilities. It's unlikely anything will come of it, but you never know unless you ask.

Here's another unlikely event: Trevor Hoffman still has interest in pitching next season, but only if he can find a team that's interested in letting him close.

At least the Brewers aren't being consistently linked to these guys: Carl Pavano and Jorge De La Rosa lead Jon Heyman's list of likely busts from this free agent season.

Meanwhile, Ron Roenicke continues to work on putting together his coaching staff for next season. He's met with Rick Peterson twice now, but is still going to consider other candidates before making a decision on his pitching coach. One other coaching candidate is off the market: Former Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu will be the Blue Jays' bench coach this season.

We spend a lot of time decrying the Brewers' lack of homegrown pitching, but it's worth noting that there's one very bright spot in the current rotation and another on the way: Minor League Baseball Prospects ranked Yovani Gallardo as baseball's sixth best pitcher under 25, and projected Jake Odorizzi to be the 25th best under 25 in 2015.

Speaking of Gallardo, he made an appearance at boxer Antonio Margarito's rally over the weekend.

Meanwhile, the offense is still not the problem. Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker has some numbers to consider when evaluating this team's ability to score runs.

It seems a little early, but it looks like we're already headed into projection season: FanGraphs has the 2011 Bill James projections up on their player pages.

In the minors:

  • John Steinmiller is back from Arizona and shared an interview with Hunter Morris, who's been playing some third base in the Fall League. Morris makes it sound like the transition is going more smoothly than I would have expected. It would be a major improvement in his long term value if he could stick there.
  • Adam Foster of Project Prospect has a pretty ringing endorsement of Jeremy Jeffress' recent AFL performance.

Around baseball:

Tigers: Re-signed catcher Max St. Pierre to a minor league deal.

Today in former Brewer notes:

  • On Deck Circle has a look at Tommy Harper's 1970 season, which might be the best frequently forgotten season in franchise history.
  • Ted Simmons is one of twelve Hall of Fame candidates to be considered by the Expansion Era Committee at the winter meetings.

You've asked for it, and asked for it again, then asked for it louder, and it's finally done. ESPN announced yesterday that Joe Morgan and Jon Miller won't return for 2011 Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts. (FanShot) I would've liked to have seen Miller given a shot with a different partner, but Morgan's departure is a positive development for forward-thinking fans everywhere.

ESPN's decision to move on from Morgan has been met with about the reaction you'd expect from the internet: unabashed glee. With that said, a couple of very smart writers would like you to temper your enthusiasm, and I'd recommend you check out what Jeff Sullivan and Larry Granillo have to say on the matter.

On this day in 1982, Robin Yount was the unanimous selection for AL MVP. Yount led the league in hits, doubles and slugging while leading the Brewers to just their second postseason appearance in franchise history.

Happy birthday today to:

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm starting to transform.

Drink up.

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Excuse me while I puke on Heyman's shoes.

“8. David Eckstein. A two-time World Series champ, this all-time scrapper is a big plus for any clubhouse.”

Grit=BARGAIN!

by klwillis45 on Nov 9, 2010 9:57 AM CST reply actions  

I like David Eckstein a lot

He may be 100 lbs soaking wet, but he plays his guts out all the time. That characteristic tends to coincide with winning teams. If we were looking to replace C.C. on the roster, I’d pick up Eckstein.

by nullacct on Nov 9, 2010 10:55 AM CST up reply actions  

sigh

he’s white and he’s no good.

the kind of guy that ken macha would play over luis cruz:P

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 9, 2010 11:14 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Don't want Washburn either

He’s had 4 good months of pitching in the last 5 years. 4.67 ERA in 2006, 4.32 ERA in 2007, 4.69 ERA in 2008 while pitching in pitcher friendly Seattle, striking out about 5 guys per 9. Good first half in 2009 before tanking in the second half…plus the injury. He’s also 36 years old.

The minor league deal is fine and all, but what’s the best case scenario? You’d be hoping to get him back to a 4.50 ERA pitcher who doesn’t strike out anyone, available for reduced innings because of the injury. I don’t think that helps out the Brewers.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 9:58 AM CST reply actions  

Best case scenario

160 or so league average innings for roughly $1.5 million.

But to me what’s important is the worst case – he doesn’t make the team, and you’re out next to nothing. Maybe he agrees to go to AAA and be depth and you owe him $500k. Or he opts out and you’re out a few weeks of spring training per diem.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 9, 2010 10:11 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Also, we like to sing the praises of Melvin's junkheap acquisitions

He’s been so successful up to this point, in fact, that if he signs Washburn, I’ll give Melvin the benefit of the doubt and be cautiously optimistic about Washburn.

Of course, if he signs a 2 year $8 million guaranteed plus a $250k buyout, I reserve the right to be a little fiery about it.

"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto

by ecocd on Nov 9, 2010 10:16 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Same.

Here’s the contract I’d offer him:

Minor league deal, $800k if he makes the majors. Incentives start kicking in at 50 major league innings, and add an extra $100k to the deal for every 10 IP. So, if he pitches 200 innings he could make $2.4 million.

I’d let him opt out if he’s not on the Opening Day roster, throw in a million if he’s the Comeback Player of the Year or an All Star, and I’d maybe even consider a vesting option for 2011 if he makes 30 starts.

This deal is low risk for the team, but high enough upside for him to make it worth his while to come out of retirement.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 9, 2010 10:20 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

30 starts is pretty stiff, isn't it?

Healthy, productive non-injruy prone starts don’t always hit 30 starts. If he manages 25, that means he’s been damn productive, but that’s just quibbling over details.

Do you think he’d really go for a $2.4 million contract?

"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto

by ecocd on Nov 9, 2010 10:38 AM CST up reply actions  

Do you think he’d really go for a $2.4 million contract?

Actually, it’s $800k plus incentives, but now I’m quibbling.

If he’s willing to pitch for that, then I’d be thrilled to have him on board. If not, I’d encourage him to try his luck elsewhere.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 9, 2010 10:57 AM CST up reply actions  

What do you consider league average?

In terms of stats?

My problem with Washburn is that even if he makes a full recovery from his injury, he’s not a very good pitcher. There are lots of other pitchers with an upside of a 4.50 ERA that you can sign for your AAA team, guys like Narron or Estrada last year.

If its a thing where Washburn will agree to pitch in the minors for a couple months, I’m all for it. The harm would be if the Brewers were forced to make a decision on a roster spot for him based on a handful of spring training games.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 10:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Do you see Narron of Estrada was 4.50 ERA guys?

If that was the case, wouldn’t the Brewers have at least kept (added?) Estrada on the 40-man? A lot of teams in this league would be content with a number 5 starter that can put up a 4.50 ERA.

"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto

by ecocd on Nov 9, 2010 10:44 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't see either of them as 4.50 ERA guys

Bush is a 4.50 ERA guy, and I don’t think either Narron or Estrada are as good.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 11:02 AM CST up reply actions  

I understand your point

But, honestly, what alternative is going to get the Brewers more than 160 innings and lower than a 4.50 ERA? I don’t think it exists internally at this point. And, really, that’s an improvement over Dave Bush.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 10:50 AM CST up reply actions  

I see where you're coming from

The Brewers staff sucked, doesn’t hurt to try other options.

However, Bush had a 4.54 ERA in 174 IP and most people (myself included) were ready to see what other options were out there.

If you think the ceiling of Washburn is about what Dave Bush did last year, and the worst case scenario is that he takes a 25 man roster spot out of spring training, costs the team a couple games and is released a month later – I don’t know if its worth it.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 10:54 AM CST up reply actions  

Worth what, exactly?

The cost here is pretty much negligible.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 9, 2010 10:59 AM CST up reply actions  

I don’t want him taking a 25 man roster spot out of spring training because I think he can cost the Brewers games, and has limited upside.

Like I said earlier, if he wants to take a minor league deal and be depth, I’m fine with that.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 11:01 AM CST up reply actions  

You think he will cost the team games?

I think his upside is roughly 4.00 ERA. I’m pretty sure I’d gamble a couple million on that.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 3:01 PM CST up reply actions  

He's hit 4.00 ERA once his last 4 years.

And that was at a pitcher’s park, and he just had a year off with an injury.

I know the Brewers are desperate for pitching, but I don’t think that is a smart gamble.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 3:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Thus, upside

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 5:11 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't think that's his upside

4.00 is more of a pipe dream IMO.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 5:23 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd be interested to see what you'd throw $2MM at for pitching.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 5:11 PM CST up reply actions  

If forced to spend $2MM on FA pitching

I’d sign guys with minor league options for depth. A pitcher you can get on the FA market for $2MM most likely won’t be good enough to warrant a 25 man roster spot.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 5:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Even then, probably not worth it

I’m possibly missing someone, pulled this from ESPN.com

FAs who have made $2MM or less the last two years:

2009:

Bedard – DNP
Wang – DNP
Duchscherer – 28 IP
Scott Olsen – 81 IP, 5.56 ERA

2008:

Hampton – 112 IP, 5.30 ERA
Glavine – DNP
Bartolo Colon – 69 IP, 4.19 ERA
Pavano – 200 IP, 5.10 ERA
Tim Redding – 120 IP, 5.10 ERA,

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 8:15 PM CST up reply actions  

ERAs

Are really contingent on their particular situation, or rather, how they were achieved.

Personally I would take a guy with a 4.50 ERA any day if he achieved that ERA by pitching a “quality start” every time out.

I don’t think the importance of consistency can be overstated in any aspect of baseball but especially Pitching.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 5:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Actually, it's possible for an inconsistent pitcher to be better for his team

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/same-old-same-old/

I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.

by Lefti on Nov 9, 2010 6:01 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, I prefer FIP or tRA

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 6:06 PM CST up reply actions  

H'es exactly what the Brewers don't need.

Unless he miraculously puts up the numbers he did in Seattle. Which he won’t.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 11:07 AM CST up reply actions  

I still haven't seen your plan for getting pitching

Regardless of their 1B signing, they need starting pitching. You don’t like the concept of trading McGehee for pitching. Brandon Webb is an interesting proposition, but no better than Washburn, really. Where is the pitching coming from in your opinion?

"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto

by ecocd on Nov 9, 2010 11:19 AM CST up reply actions  

I wish I knew.

I’m hoping that DM can get something good for Fielder. The reason I like Webb is his potential upside. When healthy, he’’s an elite pitcher. If we can get him cheap I think he’s worth the risk.

Washburn on the other hand…
If he just pitches to his career average, he’s an older, left handed – Dave Bush.

I’d love to see us make a run at Greinke, I’m just not sure we’ve got the prospects to pull it off.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 11:23 AM CST up reply actions  

You never know...

Maybe Capuano (assuming he sticks around) will be back to his old self.
Maybe Mark Rogers is ready to contribute at the Major League level.

I just really hope DM can get us at least 1 high level starter for Fielder…
Maybe he can pull something off with guys like Gomez and Gamel too. Here’s hoping.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 11:28 AM CST up reply actions  

Which old Capuano?

The 2007 version where his ERA was 5.10 and had a WHIP of 1.493?

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 3:51 PM CST up reply actions  

No, the good one

I’m trying to be an optimist here.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 4:21 PM CST up reply actions  

I feel as if I"m staring into the sun

Did you just say you want the Brewers to trade for Greinke?

Yikes.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 3:01 PM CST up reply actions  

You wouldn't want Greinke?

Or you just don’t think we could get him?
I’m not sure we could get him but I’d like to have him on the team.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 3:38 PM CST up reply actions  

at what price?

getting Greinke would result in selling out the majority of the farm system, or at least trading away most of the Brewers top prospects, such as Odorizzi, Rogers, Jeffress, and Lawrie, while the Brewers would only have Greinke for 2 years before getting outbid by teams with a ton of money to spend. IMO I don’t think the Brewers have a great chance of signing Greinke long-term if they do get him

by ilikeburritos on Nov 9, 2010 4:12 PM CST up reply actions  

I think the argument is

Grienke is an expensive option, that alone, does not get the team closer to the playoffs, and costs a ton of future value to acquire him.

It maybe works as a three way deal if you were include a team like the Red Sox, but the Brewers would have to give up the bulk of the talent the Royals are looking for (e.g. Brett Lawrie AND Jake Odirizzi at least) and the Sox would give up a guy like Casey Kelly (which they wont).

So you get Grienke, great, for 2 years and he costs a lot of money, and for what? No playoff appearances, and you decimate the upper levels of your prospects.

by backtocali on Nov 9, 2010 4:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Exactly

many fans I see on Facebook and in the comment section on some Brewers sites are ranting about how the Brewers should risk their entire farm system to acquire Greinke. They always think about the near future and never about long term.

by ilikeburritos on Nov 9, 2010 4:19 PM CST up reply actions  

I think both views are valid.

If Greinke helps us win now and compete for the post season I would probably say do it.

A 3 way trade would probably be the best option if possible but the thing with prospects is that they are just what their name implies.

There’s no guarantee that Odirizzi will ever be anything special, same with Jeffess. Those guys could also get injured and never pitch a day in the majors. You just never know with prospects. They have upside but Greinke has proven himself already at the ML level. Obviosly this applies to Greinke too, he could get injured and flame out like Riske did for us but those are the risks inherent in making any sort of deal.

It just comes down to how you want to approach the game. With a “win-now” approach or not.

I’m not saying that Greinke alone would put this team over the top, we will definitely need something good in return for Fielder too if he gets traded but Greinke could have a huge impact for a couple of years and if the team is run well and we’re competitive maybe we would be able to hang on to him.

I would definitely not want to part with Rogers if we could avoid it though, he looks like the real deal to me.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 4:29 PM CST up reply actions  

The more success the team has

the more money the organization makes which in theory would allow us to increase our payroll.

Something to bear in mind also when taking the “win-now” approach.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 4:33 PM CST up reply actions  

That's true only to a certain extent.

According to market share data, the Brewers have pretty much captured their entire market… at least 95%. This means that the only way to increase revenue would be to raise ticket prices.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 4:42 PM CST up reply actions  

And if they're at a price point where they can increase revenue by increasing ticket prices

They should just go ahead and do it already, so there’s probably not much to be gained there

I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.

by Lefti on Nov 9, 2010 6:04 PM CST up reply actions  

You also have to account for

merchandising, media contracts, etc.

I don’t see them increasing ticket prices till the team is performing better and drawing more fans.

Personally I think they might make more money by lowering ticket prices. People would spend more on concessions junk if they were able to get in for cheaper.

I could be wrong on that but it seems to me that if you could sell out just about every game with cheaper tickets you’d make out better in the long run.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 7:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes, there is a revenue-maximizing price point

As you raise prices, you increase revenue by getting more money per ticket, but you also reduce revenue by selling fewer tickets. There is some price point at which these two effects exactly cancel each other out, and this is where revenue is maximized. In theory, the club should set their prices wherever this is.

I don’t really have any idea if they’re at this point now; my guess would be that they’re in the general neighborhood, maybe a little below that. My point, though, was that IF they are in the pricing region where they could increase revenue by increasing prices, they should just go ahead and do that; to say, “The only way they could increase revenue is by increasing prices,” should, ideally, never be correct, because they should already be optimizing.

I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.

by Lefti on Nov 9, 2010 8:11 PM CST up reply actions  

But he doesn't

The team is more than one pitcher away from the playoffs. Its pointless to sell the farm to get 4 more wins.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 5:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Offense is not a problem up until what point?

With Escobar’s less-than-impressive performance this year and Lucroy potentially never showing any offense (can’t back that up other than catchers generally not being good offensive players), the Brewers could start opening holes in their offense. At what point does offense become average? Fielder leaving? Fielder and McGehee leaving? Fielder leaving + regression from other players?

I’m honestly asking here and I don’t really have the time to peer through the numbers and/or projections from potential replacement-level replacements.

"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto

by ecocd on Nov 9, 2010 10:20 AM CST reply actions  

Let's not shovel dirt on Lucroy yet.

His offense wasn’t great but he could still develop. Remember – he was supposed to spend 2010 in the minors.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 9, 2010 10:21 AM CST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t shovel dirt on Escobar either.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 10:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Okay, so fine, let's not shovel dirt on them

The question still stands. If we replace Fielder with replacement level 1st baseman, where does that leave the Brewers offense?

"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto

by ecocd on Nov 9, 2010 10:36 AM CST up reply actions  

Do you think Mat Gamel, Corey Hart, or Casey McGehee will be replacement level?

I think you’re seriously over-reacting to this. There’s not going to be a replacement level 1B on the team.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

I think Gamel

Would likely be replacement level. At least for quite awhile.
The other 2 would probably be better than average.
It would be a viable idea to move Hart to first and stick Gamel in left or right. (assuming he doesn’t suck as bad there as he does at third)

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 11:32 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm sorry, you're just opining that Gamel will be 'at replacement level'?

With nothing to support it? Are you going with your gut, Ned?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 3:02 PM CST up reply actions  

THere's nothing to base it on

He has barely played first and has barely played in the Majors.
I’m guessing he’s not going to be so hot at it so yeah, I guess that would be my gut telling me that he’ll be replacement level or lower.

Is there something to suggest that he would be better than that?

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 3:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Actually, you could MLE (minor league equivalency)

Using his 2010 Nashville stats, Gamel would be projected to hit .269/.335/.425 with 10 HRs in 322 ABs.

If you go back to 2008 (his season in the minors with at least 100 games), his projection comes out to .277/.333/.437 with 14 HRs in 523 ABs.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 4:02 PM CST up reply actions  

I hope that's true

But he certainly hasn’t proven anything at the major league level.
Not to mention the fact that he’s always injured.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 4:18 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't think Gamel has been given a chance to prove anything at the MLB level.

but the injuries can’t be argued.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 4:44 PM CST up reply actions  

How do you prove anything at the major league level when you've got you and Ken Macha saying "he's never proven anything at the major league level"?

Do you think someone needs to give him a shot at some point? Or not? What about your boy Casey? Someone gave him a shot, even though he’d never done anything worth getting a spot on an MLB roster.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 5:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Casey earned his spot in Spring training

After Gamel got injured…again.
Gamel hasn’t even done that.
With McGehee at 3rd I don’t see how it could be a good idea to just throw Gamel into the fire and see how he does.

If he’s as bad or worse than Braun was at 3rd, he better bring an awfully strong bat with him.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 5:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, and Hart earned a bench spot in Spring Training

insert sample size comments here.

You have no valid points, as far as I can tell. You want to base something on ‘your guy’, then go over the jsonline.com comments section.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 5:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh I see

you completely missed the fact that this is assuming a Casey McGehee trade. Sorry I was harsh on you, I thought you were just making ridiculous and unsupportable comments after you’d read the entire thread.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 5:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, missed that sorry...

I’m doing about 9 things at once here. If the traded McGehee then sure, stick Gamel out there. It would be nice to have a back up plan though in case he’s just utterly awful.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 5:23 PM CST up reply actions  

A nickel's worth of free advice

As you just noted, you’re everywhere lately, and you’re involved in a lot of drawn out, long winded arguments that end up becoming difficult/tedious to read.

I appreciate your enthusiasm, but we don’t need to have every debate at once right now. It’s a long offseason.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 9, 2010 8:51 PM CST up reply actions  

I stand by my statement earlier this year

Braun and Fielder are equal in their ability to anchor a lineup. As long as one of them stays, we’ll put up runs. If Fielder is gone and we play Ronnie baseball, I’d expect our lineup to look like:

Gomez
Weeks
Braun
Hart
McGehee
Lucroy
O’Potatoes
P
Escobar

by nullacct on Nov 9, 2010 11:02 AM CST up reply actions  

Corrected
Gomez Cain
Weeks
Braun
Hart
McGehee
Lucroy
O’Potatoes
P
Escobar

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 11:05 AM CST up reply actions  

Gomez

Please go away.
Can we stick him in the minors for the year?
I think he still has options doesn’t he?

Anyone know?

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 11:15 AM CST up reply actions  

Yes

He still has 2 options

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 11:18 AM CST up reply actions  

THen he really needs to go to the Minors

You never know, maybe he’ll figure something out. Either that or trade him for a bag of balls.

No way should he even be considered over Cain at this point (IMHO)

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 11:19 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, Cain.

Thanks for the correction.

by nullacct on Nov 9, 2010 11:26 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm concerned that if we trade Fielder

we really do need to replace his production the best we can. That’s why I would advocate for signing A guy like Adam Dunn or Victor Martinez.

I think you’re right, it wouldn’t take a whole lot for our offense to be average or worse and if our pitching staff doesn’t improve dramatically, that could be a big problem.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 11:12 AM CST up reply actions  

Offense

Obviously, if nothing else improves, the loss of Fielder would really hurt the team. However, I’d be fine with an “average” offense if the pitching staff were at least average.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 11:17 AM CST up reply actions  

The Great Mustachio

Do you think he’s got enough magic to get us some real pitching?

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 11:18 AM CST up reply actions  

If we were going to replace him with a FA signing

I’d go with Johnny Damon, and move Hart to first.

by nullacct on Nov 9, 2010 11:46 AM CST up reply actions  

If you're considering Damon...

why not just re-sign Overbay and leave Hart in RF?

He’s younger and (more likely) cheaper than Damon… plus he still appears to have a bit more pop left in his bat than Damon.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 4:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Damon

Will be way too expensive, at least I assume he will be.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 4:17 PM CST up reply actions  

He'll probably get less than what Fielder will get next season

He made $8M last season with the Tigers, which was a significant drop from the $13M/yr he was getting from the Yankees.

His power numbers went way down last season, but was still hitting fairly well. I’m guessing he’ll probably sign for less… especially if someone offers him a 2-3 year deal.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 4:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Johnny Damon? No thanks.

He hasn’t thrown a ball to the infield without it bouncing twice en route to the cutoff man in 5 years. And in RF? Yikes.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 5:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Point taken

But I’d still prefer him over Adam Dunn

by nullacct on Nov 9, 2010 6:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

oh god, the remetee is spreading! kill it!

by warwick5s on Nov 9, 2010 10:25 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

At least his Remetee isn't Underarmour

Remetee for the common man?

"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto

by ecocd on Nov 9, 2010 10:36 AM CST up reply actions  

as much as i dislike remetees

he doesn’t look terrible in it… which is just a shocking statement by itself.
and i’m sure ryan asked him to wear it for publicity. otherwise, why would it have the word “remetee” on it?

by Capt Science on Nov 9, 2010 11:49 AM CST up reply actions  

I think many of their shirts have "Remetee" incorporated with the design.

Those kinds of shirts are somewhat popular these days, so I don’t think Braun would need to ask him to wear it. The Ed Hardy t-shirts are very similar.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 4:09 PM CST up reply actions  

I saw a band in a bar in Boston

whose lead singer was wearing a Remetee. One of the people I was with said he looked like the douchiest man on the planet. He was correct.

I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.

by Lefti on Nov 9, 2010 6:07 PM CST up reply actions  

So, 100RBIs for no hitter

inflated irrelevant stat for inflated irrelevant stat?

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 9, 2010 11:13 AM CST reply actions  

I think it would be more like 100 RBI vs. 15 wins

I never use a big word when a diminutive word would suffice.

by TheJay on Nov 9, 2010 11:34 AM CST up reply actions  

I'd keep the 100 RBIs myself

I think McGehee is the real deal. He’s one of my favorite players to watch hit. He’s got great discipline and a perfect line drive swing.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 11:15 AM CST reply actions  

yeah

with braden having a dehabilitating surgury (or whatever) he seems like too high of a risk.

Also: nullacct, if Dallas Braden gets signed, I look forward to seeing a Photoshop of one of the accuweather girls doing her best Vanna White impression with a before-and-after for “Dallas Braden Looper”

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 9, 2010 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

You're a fan of the RBI, huh?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 3:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Sorta

I’m a fan of Casey’s career .942 OPS with RISP.

by nullacct on Nov 9, 2010 3:06 PM CST up reply actions  

You're going to use a situational stat that tells you how well the players in front of someone get on base

as a measure of this guy’s offensive ability? Interesting.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 3:15 PM CST up reply actions  

He hits better with runners in scoring position. It is what it is.

Raptor jesus, please free me from the luddites who insist that all at bats are created equal

by nullacct on Nov 9, 2010 3:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Sorry, didn’t mean to be an ass. But I don’t see RISP as a slice of something larger, I really feel that players behave differently in clutch situations, both offensively and defensively.

by nullacct on Nov 9, 2010 6:02 PM CST up reply actions  

From what I understand

The short answer is “no”, the long answer is, “Maybe, but it’s a very, very small effect.”

I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.

by Lefti on Nov 9, 2010 6:53 PM CST up reply actions  

RBIs are a combo stat between

how well someone hits with runners on and how well players ahead of him get on base

OPS with RISP has nothing to do with how well the batters/runners are ahead of him, other than limiting sample size

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 9, 2010 3:36 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Wait, wait, wait

Backtocali is really Tom H???

I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful

by Michael M on Nov 9, 2010 11:27 AM CST reply actions  

on the contrary

Tom H is stating something as if it was truth that back2cali was saying would be shallow thinking and overvaluing one of our players.
Tom H is advocating they keep someone just because he got to 100.

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 9, 2010 11:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Still, a little eerie

I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful

by Michael M on Nov 9, 2010 11:32 AM CST up reply actions  

Maybe TH looks for my posts

And dislikes me so much that he attempts to show why he feels the team should do things, especially when we are in complete disagreement.

I’m just trying to figure out who makes Kyle pound on his desk harder.

by backtocali on Nov 9, 2010 11:42 AM CST up reply actions  

TH by a mile

He can ban you from existence if you get out of line. TH is a curmugeonly fixture who cannot be banned.

"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto

by ecocd on Nov 9, 2010 12:05 PM CST up reply actions  

While I think the 100 RBI's is something they shouldn't look at...

I still think we should keep McGehee because he’s a fairly solid player. Good for about 25 homers, about an .800 OPS, uses opposite field well, and pretty much the only guy we have that can play 3B (Gamel doesn’t count, he can’t throw the ball to 1st).

If they can sell high on him, they should consider it. But otherwise, he’s one of those players who gives a little more bang for your buck right now. I’m open for a defensive upgrade and letting him take over at 1B, but not much out there now that the Tigers have hoarded both Inge and Peralta.

"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck

by GormanBraun28 on Nov 9, 2010 11:43 AM CST up reply actions  

McGehee can't field

Gamel at least has tools to become a good fielder.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Nov 9, 2010 12:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Your opinion on his arm

That it’s a mental problem and can be fixed over time?

"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto

by ecocd on Nov 9, 2010 12:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Hypnosis

Or electro shock

Although I think their defensive ability is probably a wash, McGehee is probably just going to get slower with age over there and a move to 1b will be inevitable. At the very least Gamel still has some legs, and can improve mental aspects or throwing mechanics.

by backtocali on Nov 9, 2010 12:30 PM CST up reply actions  

I saw somebody else mention Weeks as

a guy to look at when thinking about Gamel on defense. Nice tools but not a good defender. The one drawback to that comparison is Weeks is one of the hardest workers on the team.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Nov 9, 2010 12:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Weeks

was never that bad playing 2B in the minors. Gamel is horrible.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 4:16 PM CST up reply actions  

He's got a cannon

the ball strays into the line, if I remember right. That’s probably a combination of arm slot and grip. Its WAY better to make errors throwing the ball than fielding the ball.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 3:05 PM CST up reply actions  

I disagree about which one is better

It is easier to correct errors throwing the ball, but in a game, I would much much rather have a bobble than a throw away.

by BrewCrewBrian on Nov 9, 2010 3:58 PM CST up reply actions  

This is exactly the Escobar vs. Hardy argument

Escobar gets more chances, and throws more balls away.

If you get the ball in your glove you at least have a chance at making an out. If you don’t, you don’t. You’d prefer the guy actually have less chances to get an out? Not me.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 5:18 PM CST up reply actions  

eh

but if it gets by the SS, it’s likely to be a single

if he throws it away, it’s likely going to advance the runner

other baserunners will get about as far either way

and the error is more team-spirit deflating IMO

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 9, 2010 10:06 PM CST up reply actions  

By the same logic

Grabbing a ball deep in the hole and making a play a slower SS wouldn’t make would lift the spirits even more.

Its basically the Jeter argument. He made 189 assists with 5 errors last year. Alexei Ramirez made 249 assists with 20 errors.

60 more outs affects your run prevention a lot more than giving up an occasional extra base.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 10, 2010 8:01 AM CST up reply actions  

yeah, I acknowledge in a real-world situation it's not a 1:1 relationship between hard to reach balls and throwing errors

but if it were for a player, I’d rather have them not make it to the ball than throw it away.

Chances are in reality most players will make most throws, even if the balls were hard to reach, so your situation is a bit more realistic than my simple black-and-white.

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 10, 2010 10:41 AM CST up reply actions  

The point is, that Gamel would make it to the ball more than McGehee

But then exists the throwing the ball away problem. Note, also, I remember probably 3 throwing errors on McGehee last year, along with countless boots, missed chances, and terrible range.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 10, 2010 12:27 PM CST up reply actions  

The argument always seems to be

McGehee is a solid defender with limited range and Gamel is a guy with good range that makes a lot of mistakes. That just isn’t true. I hate fielding percentage but McGehee was 16th out of 19 qualified defenders.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Nov 10, 2010 1:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, exactly

and if you look at minor league numbers, McGehee was ‘supposed to be’ a good defender, and a ‘meh’ bat. The opposite has proven to be true in the majors. What that means is anyone’s guess. But if McGehee can be the exact opposite of what he was ‘supposed’ to be, then I don’t understand why everyone is stringing Gamel up already. Some short memories in this fanbase, I tell you.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 10, 2010 3:34 PM CST up reply actions  

My biggest problem with Gamel

Has just been his nagging injuries and the fact that he seems to make little to no progress defensively.

That being said, I would like to see him get a shot at starting on a regular basis, I just don’t know where they’d put him without running the risk of having one of the worst defensive 3rd basemen of all time.

Barring moving Hart to first or whatever.

It just seems that his greatest value may lie in being part of a trade.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 10, 2010 4:15 PM CST up reply actions  

You're deluding yourself if you think he's got a lot of trade value

McGehee’s trade value is much, much higher than Gamel’s. And I think they will be comparable MLB players. In fact I think that Gamel will turn out to be a better player than McGehee.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 10, 2010 4:53 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't think he has a lot of trade value

But another season like last year and his trade value will basically be zero.

You could be right about their skill level but at this point McGehee is a proven commodity while Gamel isn’t at all.

IMO Gamel is just too big of a liability to have him playing 3rd every day. McGehee isn’t great but he’s a lot better than it appears Gamel will be.

I think we’d have to get something really good in return for MCgehee to even consider it considering how productive he’s been and how little he’s being paid.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 10, 2010 5:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Again, how do you say Gamel can't be better at defense based on minor league numbers

but then accept what McGehee’s been doing?

That’s what I’d like to know.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 10, 2010 8:14 PM CST up reply actions  

I didn't know much about McGehee before he came to the Brewers

but was he really projected to be a “good defender”? I took a look at his minor league stats at 3B, and they don’t appear to be that much better than his MLB fielding stats.

As far as his defense lacking in the majors, it could be related to his balky knee, which he had surgery on last year as well as last month.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 10, 2010 10:58 PM CST up reply actions  

That's what I saw too

I would be surprised if he was ever supposed to be a “good” defensive player if for no other reason just his physical makeup.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 11, 2010 12:02 AM CST up reply actions  

He was about average in total zone

while in the minors. Worst year -1 up to a 10 and a 4 in a couple other years. He was at least average. The scouting reports also had him as one of the best defenders at 3B.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Nov 11, 2010 1:00 PM CST up reply actions  

That's interesting

Definitely hasn’t played out at the ML level.

I hope Charlie is right, I hope Gamel ends up being great. (assuming we keep him) I’d be really surprised to see McGehee traded though.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 11, 2010 2:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not saying he CAN'T do it

It just seems unlikely that he would make such a dramatic improvement when all indications it should be even more difficult to play that position in the Majors.

Braun certainly didn’t get any better and Gamel’s numbers are worse than Braun’s were.

If Braun got worse when going to the Majors and so did McGehee why would Mat Gamel get better?

I guess I just don’t understand why you would assume that.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 11, 2010 12:09 AM CST up reply actions  

I think the distinction is

menchkins believes that defense cannot improve from the minors to the majors, whereas sometimes offense can.

so…mcgehee’s performance over minor league numbers in terms of offense are irrelevant.

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 11, 2010 6:15 AM CST up reply actions  

Kind of

I wouldn’t say the CAN’T improve, just not right away. I’m sure everyone remembers hoe horrible Weeks used to be in the field and has absolutely dramatically improved.

Gamel could do the same thing I just wouldn’t expect him to do it for awhile and I’m not sure that we’d want to be patient enough with him.

It’s possible that Braun could have been a good 3rd baseman by now if they’d let him continue to play there but obviously he was so awful that they just couldn’t do that.

That’s more or less what I would expect out of Gamel.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 11, 2010 11:33 AM CST up reply actions  

McGehee is far from a great fielder

But at least he finishes the plays he makes. Gamel struggles doing that.

BTC is right though, McGehee is NOT the long term answer there. For right now though, he’s the best we have.

I just don’t see Gamel sticking at 3rd, it seems like he needs a fresh start elsewhere. If he can move around in RF, he has the arm strength for sure.

"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck

by GormanBraun28 on Nov 9, 2010 1:14 PM CST up reply actions  

8 outs out of 10 balls in play is 8 outs.

If one guys can get to a couple more balls but boots a couple the other guy gets to they are still making the same number of balls in play into outs. McGehee didn’t even convert all the balls he could get to into outs. In most measures of defense(at least the ones I could think of off the top of my head) even fielding percentage, which I hate, he was a bad fielder. Please correct me if I am wrong but your argument boils down to McGehee can throw the ball to 1B. He has little range and doesn’t field the ball well. I can see how it is less frustrating to have a guy who doesn’t throw the ball away but 8 out of 10 is 8 out of 10.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Nov 9, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

It does kind of come down to that, yeah

Obviously with small sample sizes, it’s hard to gauge what kind of major league defender Gamel would be, but based off his minor league numbers, I don’t see him as an upgrade. While he may have better range, if you mix in the amount of balls he struggles to field with the amount he throws away, I feel like he’d cause us to get more outs than McGehee would.

Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s how I feel personally. I am all for moving McGehee to 1B when we have a suitable replacement at 3rd, but right now, I don’t see any in house solutions. Gamel has had ample time to work out his issues, and he seems to be continuously spinning his wheels.

"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck

by GormanBraun28 on Nov 9, 2010 1:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Maybe

but the point is that McGehee isn’t even average so replacing him with a below average defender would not hurt as much as if McGehee was average. I think Gamel can at some point get at least as good as McGehee defensively with a much much higher offensive upside.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Nov 9, 2010 2:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Based off of McGehee's minor league numbers:

He was going to be a mediocre hitter.

He was going to be a stellar fielder.

Care to revise your thought process?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 3:06 PM CST up reply actions  

This

Kind of like the difference between Hardy and Escobar (at full defense ability).

by backtocali on Nov 9, 2010 1:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Once Escobar gets a little more consistent he will match Hardy

Probably even surpass Hardy defensively at some point. Hardy has fantastic instincts that make up for some of his athletic shortcomings.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Nov 9, 2010 2:41 PM CST up reply actions  

The thing about McGehee at 1B

Is that his value drops by almost an entire win to a total amount of 2.6 if he had played there this year. And this factors in that he would be a even 0 defensively for WAR purposes (average, not bad/not good).

Even though he isnt a very good defender at 3B, and might slow down as he ages, 3B is probably still his best spot. If you factor in that he could regress in the next year or two, there is the potential for him to be nothing more than a league average (2 WAR) first baseman.

Math for this belief:

14.3 batting/0 fielding/23,8 replacement/-12.2 positional = 25.9 runs above replacemnt as a first baseman.

by backtocali on Nov 9, 2010 1:38 PM CST up reply actions  

That is assuming there isn't an above average replacement for him at 3B

So in that regard, you are right.

My thoughts on McGehee is that right now at 3B or 1B, he’s a stop gap player, not a long term solution. Because I don’t see a better 3B on the roster or in FA who would be a better solution there and add more wins or cover the gap that’s left, he seems likely to stay at 3B next season where he is most valuable.

If they were somehow able to find a better defensive replacement, it would beneficial to move him to 1B. They’re not gonna replace Prince if he is gone, not right now at least. Thefore McGehee is providing moderate flexibility at 2 positions.

"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck

by GormanBraun28 on Nov 9, 2010 1:47 PM CST up reply actions  

By not replacing Prince, I mean with an equal or better player

"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck

by GormanBraun28 on Nov 9, 2010 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Just a thought

But if the Brewers were to deal with the A’s and move McGehee, what about Kevin Kouzmanoff?

He has 2 years left of arb, is a tremendous defender at 3B and his career offensive numbers have come in pitchers parks, and he has held his own.

Kouz’s value is about $13.5 million (surplus) add that to the $20 or so for Cahill and the Brewers then just have to throw in a guy like Rivas, Peralta and Gindl or something like that. Or they could send a guy like Cain, Dickerson or Gomez. In the end, in a situation like this, you still have to fill the hole left by Fielder, but Gamel can go there (your words) and not have as much of a negative impact at 3B.

Brewers get a pitcher, upgrade at 3B defensively and all in all come out about $5 million richer.

by backtocali on Nov 9, 2010 2:04 PM CST up reply actions  

If Melvin could somehow swing a deal that involves Cahill and Kouz

I’d be floored. I don’t know, Cahill had a nice year but pitches in a pitcher’s park. Can be deceiving.

"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck

by GormanBraun28 on Nov 9, 2010 2:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Kouz is the ultimate test...

Of how much you believe a run saved in the field is the same as a run gained at the plate.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 2:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Agreed

You could almost say the same thing about Brandon Inge.

"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck

by GormanBraun28 on Nov 9, 2010 2:26 PM CST up reply actions  

True dat

But Kouz could have a very good offensive push moving from Oakland Alameda to Miller Park. Whereas the opposite would happen with McGehee going the other way.

by backtocali on Nov 9, 2010 2:48 PM CST up reply actions  

See your point, but...

His OBP has been pretty bad and he strikes out a lot for someone with such little power. Granted those could improve, but I’m not sure a change of ballpark makes him significantly better on offense.

I’m not against it at all, just pointing out it has risk and would be an interesting trade. I am sure the media and OV fans would hate him for being below average at the plate, no matter how often you explained he saved a lot of runs with his glove.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 2:54 PM CST up reply actions  

OV would scream

At the loss of R’sBI.

The walk rate is about all that separates the two players though offensively.

I guess my contention would be that some of his fly ball outs that he hits at a higher pace than McGehee are HR’s in Miller Park (perhaps). And he suddenly turns into an average bat. He has spent the majority of his career hitting in cavernous ballparks, and the move could only improve his bat by coming to Milwaukee.

by backtocali on Nov 9, 2010 2:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Its an interesting comparison

I think McGehee is a superior offensive player to Kouz, so that would cause a lot of screaming from OV. Its a lot easier to get mad at a guy for making outs with RISP than it is to get mad at him for not having enough range to get to a ground ball.

Their career FB/HR% is about the same 12.7% to 11.1%.

The OBP from Kouz bothers me, and that would be my big concern with bringing him on. With Lucroy, Escobar and possibly the CF position all having low OBPs, I’m a little nervous adding another guy with a OBP around .300.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 9, 2010 3:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Don't know

I’m not remotely blown away by Cahill (his FIP was waaaay higher than his ERA, with a sub 6.00 k/9), and I might even be more interested in Gio Gonzalez (though he’ll walk more batters, and give up slightly fewer GB at around 49%)

I’m not a fan of Dallas Braden. The more I look at it, the less I think its very good.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 3:12 PM CST up reply actions  

If you're going to deal with Oakland

They arent going to give up Anderson, and they probably arent going to give up Gonzalez.

So your best bets are Braden or Cahill. I dont think either are world beaters, but they solidify the bottom of the rotation cheaply, are under team control for 4 years, are less expensive that something you pick up on the FA market, and there is a chance for a break out sesaon with Cahill at least, having recently been a high level prospect wtih a lot of potential.

by backtocali on Nov 9, 2010 3:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Correct me if I'm wrong

Isn’t “there is a chance for a break out sesaon with Cahill at least, having recently been a high level prospect wtih a lot of potential” exactly the kind of player the Athletics hang on to? Then again, terrible defense for a great offense (benefit outweigh deficit) is also their kind of player. Maybe they would give him up.

I’m sold. Sign him up Dougie!

"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto

by ecocd on Nov 9, 2010 4:11 PM CST up reply actions  

So if he's stop gap, why not trade him?

Who are you waiting for to come through the system?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 3:08 PM CST up reply actions  

From a value standpoint

nobody we have other than Braun will hit enough to have a good WAR at 1B. Assuming Fielder is traded and Gamel is his replacement in the batting order I really don’t care who plays where because of their bat. i want guys positioned so we get the best defensive alignment. I think Gamle at 3B and McGehe at 1B is better than the other way around. I hope to never see Braun in the infield ever again. In the outfield his speed can make up for his defensive shortcomings. I don’t think he can field ground balls and his defensive instincts stink.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Nov 9, 2010 2:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Ideally we trade both

Fielder and McGehee for pitching and put Gamel at 3B with a stopgap 1B. If Gamel fails miserably at 3B we bring up Lawrie the next year and shuffel again. Either that or we move Hart at 1B and sign a cheap RF to platoon with Dickerson.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Nov 9, 2010 2:47 PM CST up reply actions  

How would moving Hart to 1B resolve the issue if Gamel fails at 3B?

If you’re against Braun playing 3B ever again, I’m not sure how you can say Gamel at 3B and McGehee at 1B would be better.

I could be wrong, but I think Gamel is projected to be worse than Braun at 3B.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 4:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Gamel to RF

and Lawrie at 3B in 2012.

I have never heard that Gamel is worse than Braun. Braun couldn’t field or throw. Gamel just seems to have some problems with throwing to 1B. At least from what I have heard.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Nov 9, 2010 10:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Just based on their Minor League fielding numbers

Gamel is worse than Braun

Braun’s fielding % was .899
Gamel’s is .887 (at 3rd base)

Obviously that’s not a complete picture of their abilities or progression but it’s something. They’re both terrible at 3rd base.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 11:54 PM CST up reply actions  

All I know for sure is that

Gamel looked a lot better at 3B last year than Braun did in 2007. Very limited sample.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Nov 10, 2010 1:35 PM CST up reply actions  

I totally agree

He definitely did look better.
I kept waiting for him to make some disastrous plays and I didn’t see much of that. There’s got to be something to those minor league numbers though.

If we had a really good defensive first baseman that might help him out a bit too.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 10, 2010 4:17 PM CST up reply actions  

So, you're saying

that McGehee isn’t as good a hitter as he’s been in the majors, and he’s a much better defender, then, right?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 10, 2010 4:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Obviously not what I'm saying

Braun’s numbers carried over from the minors right to the majors, McGehee is worse in the Majors than he was in the Minors…. doesn’t it stand to reason that it’s more difficult to play 3B at the ML level?

Wouldn’ that make Gamel even worse than he was in the minors? If he’s anywhere near as bad as Braun was at 3rd and doesn’t hit like Braun did I just can’t see running him out there every day hoping he gets better.

Just my take on it.

I just think it’s a pretty big gamble to trade McGehee, especially f we’re trading Fielder too. Don’t forget it is Doug Melvin we’re counting on to get us some good pitching out of these potential trades and he doesn’t exactly have the best track record for acquiring top shelf, or even decent pitching.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 10, 2010 5:31 PM CST up reply actions  

top link

you obviously care about that show if you refer to it by an acronym. I think Keith Law is a closeted fan.

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 9, 2010 11:41 AM CST reply actions  

So Dontrelle Willis is a minor league FA

Should the Brewers try to sign him Edmonds- style?

by ilikeburritos on Nov 9, 2010 2:29 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

In a word

No.

"Just one more turn." - The Civilization addict's motto

by ecocd on Nov 9, 2010 2:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Well put.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 3:13 PM CST up reply actions  

The bench has too many lefthanded bats already

Oh, you meant to pitch?

I never use a big word when a diminutive word would suffice.

by TheJay on Nov 9, 2010 3:26 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm surprised the Giants let him go

What the heck left do they have in Fresno? I don’t see any point in exchanging one set of crappy minor league FA pitchers for the set a team already has, but since they traded Pucetas and Martinez there’s nowhere to go but down

by morineko on Nov 10, 2010 12:11 AM CST up reply actions  

Matt Kinney?

I never use a big word when a diminutive word would suffice.

by TheJay on Nov 10, 2010 6:49 AM CST up reply actions  

no washburn-ed abs

I would take Dave Bush over Washburn. Bush would be cheaper and there has to be a reason Washburn didn’t pitch last year. No one wanted him. I say pass.

Tim Bring back the chalet,frank charles at the wurlitzer organ, bob betts at the mic, and the barrell man logo!!!!

by storminTAZZ on Nov 9, 2010 2:55 PM CST reply actions  

can't run

This team can’t run the way its set up. They have to sit back for the long ball. If they are going to run they need to move fielder and end up with less than they think he’s worth. He will not bring as much as everyone thinks.

Then go sign overbay or whoever to play first. Improving the infield defense will help also.

Tim Bring back the chalet,frank charles at the wurlitzer organ, bob betts at the mic, and the barrell man logo!!!!

by storminTAZZ on Nov 9, 2010 2:57 PM CST reply actions  

Can't run?

Why not? Weeks, Braun, Cain, Gomez, Hart and Escobar are all capable of stealing at least 20 bases per season. That’s over half of the starting lineup.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 4:37 PM CST up reply actions  

cain and gomez both in the starting lineup?

you have 4 OFs there…someone needs to take the day off

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 9, 2010 4:40 PM CST up reply actions  

I originally had a slash between their names.

But even with platooning, I think both can get 20+ SBs.

My starting lineup comment was considering that only one of them would be playing at a time… in other words, they’d still have 5 spots in the lineup capable of stealing 20+ SBs.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 9, 2010 4:51 PM CST up reply actions  

okay

sorry for not counting the names

you’re perfectly correct

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 9, 2010 10:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Question

Why are we assuming Hoffman shouldn’t be offered arbitration. Everybody seems to think he won’t play with the Brewers next year. So his options are find a closer’s role somewhere or retire.

Why not offer him arbitration and get a sandwich pick in return?

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Nov 9, 2010 7:51 PM CST reply actions  

Too big of a risk

If he accepts that’s a big chunk of cash.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 7:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Why would he accept?

He knows he wants to close. He knows he can’t close here. Heck he thought about retiring midway through the year.

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Nov 9, 2010 8:04 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm mostly just playing devil's advocate, here.

But I feel like we’ve been treating it as a foregone conclusion that we won’t offer him arbitration. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that they could get Hoffman’s word that he won’t sign.

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Nov 9, 2010 8:18 PM CST up reply actions  

If they could do that it would be a good idea

I’m sure they won’t take the risk though.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 8:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Is that allowed?

I feel like it should violate some rule for the player to agree beforehand they’ll turn arbitration down.

I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.

by Lefti on Nov 9, 2010 8:51 PM CST up reply actions  

I know he's said he wants to close, and will retire if he can't, etc.

But he’d likely get $5-6 million in arbitration. Banking on him to turn that down is a tough bet.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 9, 2010 8:53 PM CST up reply actions  

What time frame is there for him to accept/decline after the team offers arbitration?

If he thinks he has a shot to close somewhere for similar money, he’s not going to accept arbys.

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Nov 9, 2010 10:26 PM CST up reply actions  

I know he says he wants to be a closer or retire

but if someone says here’s 7 million bucks or whatever it ends up being, he might decide that being an extra bullpen arm isn’t too bad of a job.

Maybe he could be our pitching coach, he’d probably be pretty good at that.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 7:56 PM CST up reply actions  

well, Roenicke hasn't decided on the bullpen coach yet

why not? (I’m sure one of you folks can give me a crapton of “not”)

by morineko on Nov 10, 2010 12:09 AM CST up reply actions  

Player/coach?

Seems like a conflict of interest there.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 10, 2010 2:55 PM CST up reply actions  

That's a possibility, but I don't think it's a very good one.

I think Hoffman is at the point where money doesn’t really make that much of a difference. He seems to want to to close so he can continue adding to his career saves total… and stay ahead of Rivera, who will likely pass him a season or two after Hoffman retires.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 10, 2010 2:54 PM CST up reply actions  

He's definitely said some things to indicate that that is the case.

I think he really does want to be the ALL TIME saves leader.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 10, 2010 4:18 PM CST up reply actions  

I think this article is best summed up by Theo Epstein's text reply to Melvin a couple of years back in response to a ridiculous trade proposal

“LOL”

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2010 9:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Number one

Is that story (about Epstein texting back “LOL”) true? I feel like I’ve heard it before, but can’t remember if it was a parody or not.

Number two, the idea of Braun being traded is ridiculous enough, but how does anyone who writes about baseball not understand that he will never, ever, in a million years, ever play third base again?

I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.

by Lefti on Nov 9, 2010 9:49 PM CST up reply actions  

It would almost have to....

I can’t imagine a more significant downgrade.

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 11:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Who knows if its true

Its what everyone was thinking, anyway.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 10, 2010 12:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Well...

the article does say “may shop” him around, so it’s not like it’s something that can be proven false.

Just like the Brewers MAY sign Cliff Lee… not likely to happen, but it may.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 10, 2010 2:58 PM CST up reply actions  

No, not that article

The “lol” comment by Epstein.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 10, 2010 3:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Wow

Just… wow

For your health!

by menchkins on Nov 9, 2010 9:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Gammons and Epstein sitting together in Epstein's office

Gammons: So we’re losing Beltre next year – wouldn’t it be awesome if we traded for Ryan Braun?? We could totally make it work!

Epstein: Wait, wha … who’s we?

Gammons: (Tapping on iPhone) Shut it, Theo. I’m rolling. Aaaaaaaaannd … filed to NESN.

by Cheeseandcorn on Nov 10, 2010 8:20 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

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