The Cost of Zack Greinke

We all know Zack Greinke is ridiculously good, and given the Brewers' payroll restrictions is probably the best pitcher the team has a possibility of pursuing.  As with any trade rumor on the internet, I have also seen some pretty outlandish proposals for what it would take to get Greinke (not from Brewers fans in particular) in both directions.  Luckily, there have been at least six roughly comparable trades involving ace pitchers or Cy Young winners in the past few years.  I decided to take a look into what was involved in those trades, and figured others might be interested in what I found (no analysis here really, I'm just listing what other people had said about the prospects involved at the time):

Zack Greinke, 2011?

Stats at the time of the trade:
Career: 1108.0 IP, 169 GS, 3.82 ERA, 116 ERA+, 7.6 K/9, 1 Cy Young
Previous two years: 449.1 IP, 66 GS, 3.14 ERA, 137 ERA+, 8.5 K/9

Erik Bedard, 2008

Stats at the time of the trade:
Career: 658.0 IP, 111 GS, 3.83 ERA, 119 ERA+, 8.7 K/9
Previous two years: 378.1 IP, 61 GS, 3.47 ERA, 132 ERA+, 9.3 K/9

On February 8, the Orioles traded their ace starter to the Mariners for a package of five players.  Bedard was coming off the best season of his career and a fifth place finish in the AL Cy Young voting.  Bedard's career and previous two years stats were also remarkable close to Greinke's, as were their contract statuses (2 years remaining for both).  Seattle gave up the following package of players:

Adam Jones - CF
Pre-2006, BA #64; Pre-2007, BA #28
John Sickels: B+, SEA #1 (December 28, 2007)
MLB: 147 PA, 139 AB, .230/.267/.353/.620

George Sherrill - RP
MLB: 128.1 IP, 0 GS, 1.208 WHIP, 122 ERA+

Tony Butler - SP (Butler is in the Brewers system now, interestingly enough)
Pre-2008, Unranked (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B-, SEA #6 (December 28, 2007)
85.1 IP, A (18 GS), 4.75 ERA, 7.7 K/9

Chris Tillman - SP
Pre-2008, BA #67 (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B+, SEA #4 (December 28, 2007)
102.2 IP, A+

Kam Mickolio - RP
Pre-2008, Unranked (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: C (December 28, 2007)
24.0 IP, AAA (0 GS), 3.75 ERA, 10.5 K/9

The Mariners gave up a package that included a B+ centerfielder who had struggled briefly but was still the centerpiece of the trade (Jones), a B+ starter in the lower levels of the system (Tillman), a B- starter and C reliever who were sort of the throw-ins of the trade (Butler and Mickolio), and a solid MLB reliever (Sherrill).  It seems like at the time the trade was generally considered an overpay by Seattle, at least based on the internet reaction.

Johan Santana, 2008

Stats at the time of the trade:
Career: 1308.2 IP, 175 GS, 3.22 ERA, 141 ERA+, 9.5 K/9, 2 Cy Youngs
Previous two years: 452.2 IP, 67 GS, 3.04 ERA, 144 ERA+, 9.5 K/9

On February 1, 2008, the Mets and Twins finalized a trade that sent Santana to New York in exchange for four prospects.  Santana had just one year of team control remaining, but it's important to note that the trade was largely contingent on Santana signing a six-year extension with New York (which he did on February 1).  The players involved were:

Carlos Gomez - CF
Pre-2007, BA #60
Pre-2008, BA #52 (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B, NYM #3 (November 25, 2007)
MLB: 139 PA, 125 AB, .232/.288/.304/.592

Deolis Guerra - SP
Pre-2008, BA #35 (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B+, NYM #2 (November 25, 2007)
89.2 IP, A+ (20 GS)

Kevin Mulvey - SP
Pre-2008, Unranked (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B, NYM #4 (November 25, 2007)
151.2 IP, AA (26 GS), 3.32 ERA, 6.5 K/9

Phillip Humber - SP
Pre-2005, BA #50; Pre-2006, Unranked; Pre-2007, BA #73
Pre-2008, Unranked (February 25, 2008)
John Sickels: B-, NYM #7 (November 25, 2007)
139.0 IP, AAA (25 GS), 4.27 ERA, 7.8 K/9

As funny as it may sound now, Gomez was basically the centerpiece of a trade for the undisputed best pitcher in baseball at the time.  Can somebody trick Dayton Moore into thinking it's 2008?  Along with Gomez, who Sickels graded as a B centerfield prospect, were a B+ starter, a B starter, and a B- starter with a stock on the decline.

Roy Halladay, 2010

Stats at the time of the trade:
Career: 2046.2 IP, 287 GS, 3.43 ERA, 134 ERA+, 6.6 K/9, 1 Cy Young
Previous two years: 485.0 IP, 65 GS, 2.78 ERA, 155 ERA+, 7.7 K/9

On December 19, 2009, Toronto sent Halladay to Philadelphia for three prospects.  Halladay only had a year remaining on his contract, but it seems like Philadelphia wouldn't have made this trade if they hadn't been extremely confident of an extension (which Halladay signed soon after).  The players traded:

Kyle Drabek - SP
Pre-2010, BA #25 (February 3, 2010)
John Sickels: B+ (December 23, 2009)
96.1 IP, AA (14 GS)

Travis d'Arnaud - C
Pre-2010, BA #81 (February 3, 2010)
John Sickels: C (December 23, 2009)
540 PA, A (.738 OPS)

Michael Taylor - OF
Pre-2010, BA #29 (February 3, 2010)
John Sickles: B+ (December 28, 2009)
128 PA, AAA (.850 OPS)

Drabek and Taylor were both solid prospects, graded B+ by Sickels, and d'Arnaud was ranked alright by Baseball America as well.  Between the track record of Halladay and Philadelphia's confidence in an extension, this might be the least comparable situation listed to any Greinke trade. 

Cliff Lee, three trades (mid-2009, 2010, mid-2010)

C. LEE + B. FRANCISCO TO PHILLIES – 1.5 Seasons – (July 29, 2009)
Ben Francisco – OF (to PHILADELPHIA)
MLB: 1024 PA, 914 AB, .263/.330/.446/.776 (inc. 104 PA w/ Philadelphia)

Carlos Carrasco - SP
Pre-2007, BA #41; Pre-2008, BA #54, Pre-2009, BA #52
Midseason 2009, Unranked (>50) (July 9, 2009)
John Sickels: B, PHI #1 (October 28, 2008)
114.2 IP, AAA (20 GS), 5.18 ERA, 8.8 K/9

Jason Donald – SS
Pre-2009, BA #69
Midseason 2009, Unranked (>50) (July 9, 2009)
John Sickels: B-, PHI #4 (October 28, 2008)
230 PA, AAA (.629 OPS)

Lou Marson – C
Pre-2009, BA #66
Midseason 2009, Unranked (>50) (July 9, 2009)
John Sickels: C+, PHI #10 (October 28, 2008)
241 PA, AAA (.751 OPS)

Jason Knapp – SP
Midseason 2009, BA #25-50 (July 29, 2009)
John Sickels: B-, PHI #8
85.1 IP, A (17 GS), 4.01 ERA, 11.7 K/9

C. LEE TO SEATTLE MARINERS – 1 Season – (Dec. 15, 2009)
J.C. Ramirez – SP
Pre-2010, Unranked (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: B- (December 18, 2009)
142.1 IP, A+ (27 GS), 5.12 ERA, 7.0 K/9

Phillippe Aumont – P
Pre-2008, BA #83; Pre-2009, BA #93
Pre-2010, BA #93 (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: B- (December 18, 2009)
17.2 IP, AA (0 GS), 5.09 ERA, 12.1 K/9

Tyson Gillies – CF
Pre-2010, Unranked (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: C+ (December 18, 2009)
242 PA, A- (.866 OPS)

C. LEE + M. LOWE TO TEXAS RANGERS – 0.5 Seasons – (July 9, 2010)
Mark Lowe – RP (to TEXAS)
MLB: 178.1 IP, 0 GS, 1.469 WHIP, 105 ERA+

Justin Smoak – 1B
Pre-2009, BA #23
Pre-2010, BA #13 (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: A-, TEX #2 (January 6, 2010)
MLB: 275 PA, 235 AB, .209/.316/.353/.670
 
Blake Beavan – SP
Pre-2010, Unranked (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: C+, TEX #16 (January 6, 2010)
110.0 IP, AA (17 GS), 2.78 ERA, 5.6 K/9

Josh Lueke - RP
Pre-2010, Unranked (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: No Grade (January 6, 2010)
18.2 IP, AA (0 GS), 3.86 ERA, 12.5 K/9

Matt Lawson – 2B
Pre-2010, Unranked (February 23, 2010)
John Sickels: No Grade (January 6, 2010)
345 PA, AA (.809 OPS)

I think Lee and Bedard are the two most comparable pitchers to Greinke on this list since, like Greinke, both lack the long-term track record and consistency of Santana or Halladay.  Lee was traded twice in the offseason, and it's probably useful to note that his value may have been higher then than it would have been in the prior offseason, as teams in contention (like Texas or the Phillies) will usually pay more to go all in.  Both teams got to the World Series, so if they overpaid I guess they were right in doing so.

Summary

Some people argue that Greinke is especially valuable this offseason because of the lack of ace pitching past Lee, but I think that's slightly ridiculous.  There are rarely multiple ace pitchers on the free market (if there are any) and teams are always interested in pitchers like Greinke.  Given the above precedents, I think some people might be overvaluing what it would or should take to get him.  Greinke reportedly wants out of Kansas City, and the Royals know they have to trade him, so they don't have the greatest leverage even with two years left on his contract.

John Sickels' top 20 Brewers prospects for 2011 isn't out yet, but I would guess that Odorizzi is probably a B+ starter now.  Given the above trades and their degree of comparability to Greinke, I would offer something along the lines of: Jake Odorizzi (B+ SP), Manny Parra (MLB SP) since he really deserves a chance to start somewhere, someone like Kyle Heckathorn (B/B- SP), and since Kansas City reportedly wants middle infield prospects, maybe Eric Farris (B-/C+ 2B) since he would be more expendable if a Weeks extension is in the works.  Anybody on the internet expecting Toronto to give up Drabek (an A- SP) and a number of other top prospects is dreaming, unless Greinke agrees to the parameters of an extension beforehand (unlikely).

I would really hate to give up Odorizzi, but Greinke would make the Brewers strong contenders in 2011, and if things don't work out the Brewers could flip him in mid-2011 or 2012 if an extension is impossible.

Long post, sorry.  What does everyone else think?