Tuesday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while sleeping a lot.
The Brewers have scheduled a 1 pm press conference today to introduce Shaun Marcum. If you're attending, be sure to wish him a happy birthday: He turns 29 today.
As has become the norm, the rest of today's top stories are about things that aren't happening:
- Tom Haudricourt says the team hasn't made an offer to Carl Pavano.
- He also notes that Jerry Crasnick of ESPN says they don't have the up-the-middle talent the Royals are looking for in exchange for Zack Greinke.
The Brewers may be unlikely to acquire Pavano or Greinke, but Baseball America says they have re-signed Sam Narron to a minor league deal. Narron has pitched in Nashville in each of the last three seasons and posted a 4.14 ERA with 21 walks and 54 strikeouts in 104.1 innings last season. He's spending the winter pitching for Caracas in Venezuela, and has a 3.82 ERA with eleven walks and eight strikeouts in seven starts.
The remaining open spot in the Brewer rotation was one of the key topics covered in Adam McCalvy's inbox this week. Other topics include pitching tandems, 30-something pitchers, Kameron Loe and insurance on long term contracts.
The Brewers' 2010 lineup is returning intact for 2011, so the team's biggest offensive question mark may very well be Alcides Escobar. Eno Sarris of RotoHardball looked back at Escobar's disappointing 2010 season and wants to know how many bases you think the Brewer shortstop will steal in 2011. (FanShot)
While the Brewers work to build the 2011 roster, one Brewer is over in China working to build the game internationally: Toby Harrmann noticed this story about Prince Fielder's trip to the far east.
Looking ahead, the Brewers have made a couple of minor changes to their 2011 spring schedule: If you're planning on heading out to Arizona you may want to check them out.
Around baseball:
Athletics: Signed pitcher Brandon McCarthy to a one year, $1 million deal and avoided arbitration with pitcher Joey Devine, who will earn $560,000 in 2011.
Dodgers: Signed outfielder Eugenio Velez and catcher J.D. Closser to minor league deals.
Mariners: Designated catcher Rob Johnson for assignment.
Phillies: Signed Cliff Lee to a five year, $120 million deal with a vesting option for 2016. (FanShot)
Rangers: Re-signed catcher Matt Treanor to a one year, $850,000 deal.
Rays: Re-signed pitcher J.P. Howell to a one year, $1.1 million deal.
Cliff Lee will drive up the average again next year, too: The average major leaguer earned over $3 million for the first time in 2010.
Here's today's former Brewer news:
- The Dodgers are considering signing Bill Hall to play left field.
- Baseball Reference has a list of 40 hitters with at least 5000 plate appearances and intentional walks as 20% or more of their walk total: Hank Aaron, Ted Simmons and Dave Parker made the list.
This is why every team, without exception, needs more pitching depth: Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs has started a study on DL projections for starting pitchers and says that 41% of pitchers who start at least 20 games and throw 120+ innings will go on the DL at least once the next season.
It's kind of a busy week for me but I might have to scratch out some time to create BCB's Disaster Recovery Plan.
Before I get to today's birthdays, I have (what I think is a) pretty cool announcement. A few weeks ago I emailed Baseball Reference to suggest a feature that would make my daily birthday gatherings easier, and now it's in place: B-Ref's Play Index now allows you to search for players born in a specific month or on a specific day. Here are today's:
- Shaun Marcum turns 29.
- 1998 and 2002 Brewer Marcus Jensen turns 38.
- 1992-99 Brewer Dave Nilsson turns 41.
- 1969-70 Brewer Greg Goossen turns 65.
- 1901 Brewer John Anderson would have turned 137.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to reorganize my collection.
Drink up.
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They're cousins
I believe it was stated in the JS.
by thevaccinator27 on Dec 14, 2010 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
As far as depth goes in the rotation
At long last we’ll finally be covered should something happen. Mark Rogers is still a definite question mark in a starter role, but he will definitely be given that opportunity.
Then Amaury Rivas will finally be in AAA this year, who may not project to be a top of the rotation starter, but still might fill out the back end nicely. Of course, this is all just insurance right now, as I’m certain either Narveson or Capuano will lock down that 5th spot. Question still remains who will take the other…
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
I wouldnt count on much from Rivas
I think hes a prime candidate for an AAAA starter or bottom of the rotation type of guy. Rogers will need to be stretched out before he can be relied upon for 6 innings and that could take a month or two in AAA.
Narveson will be that 5th guy for sure, its the middle they will have to fill or #2 spot. Playoffs and WS arent really won with who your 4th or 5th starter is, but it helps if that person can outperform.
I know I shouldn't do this, but
Remind me why the Brewers need a #2?
Is it Gallardo or Marcum you project as a #3?
by The Left Button on Dec 14, 2010 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
Why did you ask?
Just go back and read the Marcum thread. It’s in there somewhere. We also get into the semantics of #2 vs #3 vs #4. Trust, me, it’s not worth going over this again. I don’t think even BtC wants to go over this again.
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
by ecocd on Dec 14, 2010 12:25 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
This is true
But the question no one is asking – is it better to build for the long term through player development or the short term via Free Agency?
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Dec 14, 2010 12:32 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Marcum
He would need to repeat his 2010 to be a solid #3. His arsenal screams #3. He gets results, eats innings but his stuff is taht of a #3. He could perform as a #2, but as I mention he would actually have to do better than he did last year, imo, to be considered a #2. Id say your #2, if youre a playoff team needs to contribute at least 4 WAR.
poking the bear
you do realize that (by fangraphs WAR numbers) only 31 pitchers in MLB had a WAR of 3.95+ in 2010 (and this number may include non-starters…I dunno…I just did a quick glance)….
even if some teams don’t have true aces, that’s only a couple of number 2s that have WsAR of 4+
In any case, you can get away with a #2 that’s not a 4+ if you have a 3 that’s quite a bit above the the #3 average. or #4 and #5 that are getting you #3.3 numbers
by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 14, 2010 12:54 PM CST up reply actions
all starters in that query
price had one non-start, but I don’t think that counts:P
by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 14, 2010 12:57 PM CST up reply actions
No one's making me read this.
No one’s making me read this.
No one’s making me read this.
No one’s making me read this.
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
True
But if you look at the teams that did have a 5,4,3….type of rotation, those teams were either playoff teams or just missed.
Isn't it context-driven, though?
In the context of the Brewers rotation, Marcum is definitely a #2. In the context of the Phillies rotation, he is probably a #4 after Lee, Halladay and Hamels.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 1:19 PM CST up reply actions
I would say that he is their 5
You have Oswalt in there too.
by BrewCrewBrian on Dec 15, 2010 9:19 AM CST up reply actions
I think the argument could be made either way.
by BrewCrewBrian on Dec 15, 2010 9:26 AM CST up reply actions
I don't think so
I agree with your stance… Oswalt is better.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
He has the most ridiculous changeup in baseball
How is that the arsenal of a #3? Not everybody needs to throw in the high 90s.
Shaun and Yo and pray for snow.
No but you do need a plus fastball at least
to be considered a #2 in baseball land. As well as an above average breaking pitch.
The guy has a great changeup and average to good other pitches.
Don't get hung up on it
The 1/2/3 thing is mostly a scouting evaluation tool and a quick way to peg a prospect based on his stuff. It makes sense and is usefull when looking at prospects.
After enough major league experience/success it kind of pointless to worry about where a guy sits on that scale, he is either good or he isn’t good.
Get a ife broseph
Agreed here
The 1/2/3 scale is flawed for evaluating MLB rotations, and it really ticks me off every time I hear people using it to say why the Brewers rotation is not good. What defines a #1 rotation pitcher? Is it an ERA under 3? Is it a low K/BB ratio? Is it being among the top 30 starting pitchers today (assuming every team uses a 5-man rotation equating to 150 starting pitchers)?
I don’t mean to offend people, but I feel like it gets used by people who want to trash the Brewers rotation without having to provide stats to back up their argument.
by -JP- on Dec 14, 2010 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I get your complaint
But the Brewer rotation doesnt really need any help being trashed, they did it fine on their own the last two years.
in other places, I believe that I have attempted to “define” other measures for the 1/2/3 slots in terms of stats as well using 5 WAR for a 1, 4 for a 2, and so on. If we believe in the sabermetric stats as meaningful and relevant, WAR is as close to be all end all that we can find, and its probably a good measure.
The beginning of all of this has been my statements that Marcum was “only” or a solid #3 starter, and both his stuff and his numbers reflect that.
shouldn't you...oh, slot an average #2 as whatever WAR the overall 45th-46th best pitcher has?
which is well under 4?
by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 15, 2010 9:38 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You also need to use a lot more than 1 year of results
Probably averaging a 5 WAR over 4 or 5 years is enough to make you an ace. Less than that there’s a lot of noise in there.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
yep
I suppose I should have looked at more than 2010 for my WAR “statistics”, but given the number of no hitters this year I assumed that this was at least an average year of pitching WAR.
by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 15, 2010 9:48 AM CST up reply actions
Not necessarily
Becase the goal isnt to be average, or even above average, its to be playoff caliber.
I thought the goal was find someone that fit the prototypical #2 role
not say “what is the #2 on the best pitching team in MLB”?
and again, if you manage to put together a better-than-playoff-average #3 #4 and #5 it might not matter that your #2 is just a touch low. Not saying the brewers have that, but there’s no need to constrain your thought to “we need a 4+ WAR pitcher that pitches 4+ every year for our #2 slot, or we have no chance”
by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 15, 2010 9:45 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Hmmm
Yeah, but its not about slots and roles or #1, #2 or #3. In the framework I have tried to explain involving WAR, if your #2 slot pitcher is only a 3 or 2 WAR pitcher, but you have a guy somewhere (other than your ace) that puts up 4 WAR, then he is your #2…..
Because a guy is your opening day starter, doesnt necessarily make him your ace. Great point is Toronto last year…Marcum was OD starter, but he was only the 3rd best performing starting pitcher. So its not really about a slot, its about performance.
And again, there is also the difference between stuff, potential, and performance. Marcum, imo, has #3 stuff, pitched well and put up 3.5 WAR (performance) but was their OD starter (but Romero was the one with the higher WAR).
I can't believe I've wasted my time with this
But of pitchers that began the year with the team (or rather had their first MLB appearance of the year with the team), sorting by end of year WAR (which isn’t really a reasonable assumption, but you’re making it too!)
Braves: Hanson: 4.3. Hudson/Lowe 2.7 each
Giants: Lincecum: 5.1. Cain 4
Twins: Liriano 6. Pavano 3.2
Yankees: CC 5.1. Pettitte 2.3
Reds: Cueto 2.8. Wood 2.2
Phillies: Halladay 6.6. Hamels 3.8
Rangers: Wilson/Lewis 4.4 each
Rays: Price 4.3. Shields 2.2
how exactly is it a rule that a playoff-caliber team needs two pitchers at 4 WAR or higher? much less a WAR of 5 for a #1 and a WAR of 4 for a #2. How many teams met the stricter guidelines? 0-1, depending on which way Cain’s WAR was rounded. How about 2 over 4? Only Rangers and maybe Giants. Total above 9 WAR from two pitchers? Giants, Twins, Phillies. 8? Add on Rangers to that list.
So HALF of the teams that made the playoffs in 2010 had, of opening-day-in-the-org players had an AVERAGE WAR of 4 between their top two players.
Yovanni had a WAR of 4.6 last season. So, if he can maintain that and if we can draw a 3.4 out of someone else, we’ll be at least as good as the rotation of half of the playoff teams from this year. Marcum had a 3.5. Maybe it’s a tall order asking both pitchers to repeat, but maybe someone else will step up and give us a little extra. If we were to sign Pavano and he were to throw in a 2.7 or so (a 0.5 dropoff), that’d be just as good as half of the 2010 playoff teams’ number 2. And yet you require a 4 (a 48% improvement) from the Brewers before you consider their rotation worthy of having a number 2 starter?
Next time you pull arbitrary numbers and qualifications for players out of your ass, clean them off with your tongue before you post them here.
by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 15, 2010 12:10 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
Are you sure about this?
He has an upper 80s fastball. He has good command but its definitely not a plus pitch. In fact, he had one of the least effective fastballs in all of baseball last year, as well as a below average effective pitch for him over the course of his career. Its all about the fastball.
Let's look at some numbers
There’s definitely a relationship between fastball value from Fangraphs and FIP. A linear model with only Fastball Value as the predictor variable gives us an R-squared of 0.19 (correlation -0.44). If we use best qualifying non-fastball pitch value, we get an R-squared of 0.32 (correlation -0.56). Put the two together and we get an R-squared of 0.50. That’s actually quite good given all of the variability in data like these. Final model:
FIP = 4.39 – 0.021 * Fastball value – 0.053 * non-fastball value
The interaction term wasn’t statistically significant.
For 2010, at least, the fastball was the most important pitch amongst the pitches fangraphs tracks. On the other hand, having a good off-speed pitch was more important than the fastball, on average.
You’re correct that having a plus fastball will help you become an elite pitcher, but you’re not correct in stating it’s “all about the fastball.” On average, it’s actually more accurate to say it’s “all about an off-speed pitch with a fastball that doesn’t suck.”
Tim Hudson had the best fastball (+32.1) in 2010 and only put up a 4.09 FIP (xFIP 3.87), due in large part to his 2nd best pitch being only a +2 curve ball.
Francisco Liriano last season had a -0.8 fastball and put up a 2.66 FIP (3.06 xFIP), because he made up for it with his +19 slider.
Marcum’s -9.6 fastball certainly hurt him, but his +26 change up definitely helped him to a 3.74 FIP (xFIP 3.90).
Texas Leaguers Pitch F/X gives us a little more insight into Marcum’s fastball in 2010. On his Four-seamers, batters whiffed only 3.1% (league avg 4-seamer = 6%) and his 2-seamer whiff rate came in at a more respectable 4.8% (leage avg 2-seamer = 5%).
He was, however, substantially more accurate than average since he managed to throw his 4-seamer for a strike 65.6% of the team (avg = 64.4%) and his 2-seamer strike percentage at an impressive 64.5% (avg = 57.2%).
(2008, incidentally showed pretty much league average across the board and resulted in a fangraphs +1.1 fastball)
It looks like he relies solely on control for his fastball and it’s fair to say he’s going to have a hard time improving the results of his fastball in the future. If he loses even a little of that control on his fastball, he could be in for a rough season a la Randy Wolf. If he keeps that control, there’s no reason to believe he’ll be any worse than his 2010 numbers.
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
The interaction term didn't work...
But you say “it’s all about an offspeed pitch and a fastball that doesn’t suck”…what happens if you create a dummy variable (=1 if fastball value > 0), and make an interaction term between that and 2nd best pitch value.
Although > 0 is arbitrary, we can define “doesn’t suck” as > median, > mode, > any percentile, whatever makes sense to you.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
It was meant as shorthand
The off-speed pitch is the most important, but don’t neglect the fastball.
I don’t have the graphs saved, but the scatterplot of fastball value vs. FIP was pretty much a random cloud decreasing along a negative sloping line. The -0.021 coefficient on fastball value was consistent across the domain of fastball values.
It’s not really groundbreaking to say a pitcher has to be balanced to be a great starting pitcher, but it looks like a breaking ball is more important than a fastball within that balance.
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
it weirds me out when an Rsquare value less than .50 is acceptable.
baseball is not biology.
i'm fighting all the french people i can find. happy cinco de mayo!
by sowingwildoats on Dec 14, 2010 7:10 PM CST up reply actions
Nor is it economics.
Some of us have to deal with things that are not direct, easily explainable interrelationships.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
He has a below average fastball
I meant that his results disagree with you regarding pitchers needing to have a plus fastball to be really good. As ecocd points out, Liriano had a below average fastball last year and was in the running for the best pitcher in the majors (6.0 WAR, may have led the league in WAR if he had thrown more innings).
Greg Maddux never threw harder than the low-90s, and Roy Halladay has had Cy Young-caliber seasons with K/9 below 6. Just because they don’t fit the average mold for elite pitcher doesn’t mean we should ignore their actual results.
Shaun and Yo and pray for snow.
Are you the President of Baseball Land, and if not who is?
I’d like to know who created this rule, considering I have never heard of it. So Greg Maddux was never really a #2? Stuck at #3?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Dec 14, 2010 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
the established guidelines are a joke
basically…they create a market deficiency if you follow them too rigorously.
by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 14, 2010 8:33 PM CST up reply actions
Why
Why do you need to poke the bear?
by Saberilliterate on Dec 14, 2010 12:27 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
don't worry, they only have an unhealthy obsession with plunkeveryone.
i'm fighting all the french people i can find. happy cinco de mayo!
by sowingwildoats on Dec 14, 2010 7:12 PM CST up reply actions
Next time you start your comment with
by Mykenk on Dec 14, 2010 12:32 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I thought it was a fair question
Not everyone reads every commend and every thread. Compared to the craptacular performance of last years’ starters Marcum seems like a fine #2. Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson, and Capuano, probably. I’m not confident with that group, but it’s better than 2010. Keep Loe in the pen, he blows as a starter.
I'm confident 1-3.
Would love to upgrade Narveson & whoever the 5th starters gonna be.
Agreed on Loe.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
Yeah, exactly.
Love Cappy and the Narve-dog, but while their good days are good enough their bad times are pretty bad, and there’s nothing backing them up but Parra and Loe.
Definitely an upgrade
Wolf has to be able to do what he did in September all year long for it to be worthwhile.
Ive never said that Marcum was awful (not responding to you nullacct) just dont think he qualifies as a #2 starter or that we paid a good amount for him. A guy can be a good ace on a staff that is pretty good or even bad, but that doesnt necessarily make the guy an ace. To be a playoff team, you need to have a playoff caliber rotation, and for me that means at least two all star starters (one of which is a cy young candidate type of pitcher) a solid/above average starter and at least one mlb average guy.
by backtocali on Dec 14, 2010 1:14 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
So, most teams don't have a playoff caliber rotation.
what, 2 or 3 in the NL, tops?
Twitterize me: @mykenk
I think its a fair enough point
The Giants have Lincecum and Cain, and the Rangers had Lee, Wilson and Lewis. I don’t think anyone would classify Wilson and Lewis as All-Star caliber, but they both performed very well for the Rangers last year.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 1:21 PM CST up reply actions
Lee, Wilson, and Lewis are approximately the AL equivalent of Gallardo, Marcum, and Wolf
Assuming Marcum and Wolf live up to potential.
And yes I know that Lee is considerably better then YoGa.
by BrewCrewBrian on Dec 15, 2010 9:28 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Speaking of bad 2010
My run distribution simulations showed the Brewers pitching staff lost the team 7 or 8 games compared to an NL-average pitching staff last year. They should’ve had 84-85 wins with their offensive output. Pythagorean says about 86-87 wins.
Just about anything would be better than the 2010 rotation.
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
Except the 2009 rotation
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 1:23 PM CST up reply actions
And this is why we're seriously discussing Blanton...
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
It was meant in humor, rather than snark
although I do understand why you’d think it was snark. Sorry about that.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 1:55 PM CST up reply actions
I thought of it more as cynical humor
And I built on it with more cynical humor.
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
Ahh ok
Sorry, I sort of set myself up to get shit from people, so I suppose I expect it.
Reading back, we’re pretty funny dudes.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 2:00 PM CST up reply actions
I'm hilarious
I’m also super humble.
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
We should have beers sometime
It would be like drinking with myself, which would be awesome.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
have a rec good sir.
i'm fighting all the french people i can find. happy cinco de mayo!
by sowingwildoats on Dec 14, 2010 7:13 PM CST up reply actions
Well lets wait till Rivas actually pitches a game before calling him Four-A
Nobody would have given Randy Wells a chance with his numbers, and he’s done fairly well as a starter for the Cubs.
That’s why you don’t judge a sport simply by what’s written on paper.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Dec 14, 2010 3:04 PM CST up reply actions
the fact that he didnt get a call up last year
speaks volumes.
I know you dont like to believe that I know what I am talking about, but you have to be able to read between the lines when you look at numbers and be able to guage what a scouting report says. He has some promise, but his numbers in AA last year are somewhat distorted by the fact that he has spent a lot of time in minor league ball so far, and that he is probably around 2 years older than most of the league.
If they came through college, I don't see why not.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
"The average major leaguer earned over $3 million for the first time in 2010."
so…that’s the average earned by major leaguers (mean), right? not the average major leaguer (median)
Median is more informative to me
MLB Trade Rumors is saying Milwaukee could be a possible destination for Joe Blanton
oh please God no.
by ThroughBeingCool on Dec 14, 2010 11:01 AM CST reply actions
No is not an option
Blanton or Pavano?
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
by theBrouhaha on Dec 14, 2010 11:05 AM CST up reply actions
Blanton better, but the difference isn't that much
Last 3 years: Blanton: 4.51 ERA / 1.37 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Bush: 4.86 ERA / 1.35 WHIP; 5.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9
I don’t want Bush back nor do I really want to give up anything of value or pay Blanton that much money.
Get a ife broseph
Bush, last three FIPs: 4.93, 5.07, 5.13
Blanton, same: 4.52, 4.45, 4.34
I don’t necessarily want either one, but Bush is, in my opinion, clearly the worse option.
by Noah Jarosh on Dec 14, 2010 11:24 AM CST up reply actions
He can hit homeruns
although I’d like to forget that…
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 1:22 PM CST up reply actions
I vote none of the above
And take a flier on Jim Shields.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Dec 14, 2010 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
pass
I’d rather take Wade Davis. Not sure if the Rays are willing to trade him, though
by ilikeburritos on Dec 14, 2010 5:48 PM CST up reply actions
I'd rather have Zach Grinke...
Might as well consider all pitchers that might be available
by BrewCrewBrian on Dec 15, 2010 9:31 AM CST up reply actions
Blanton would be cheaper and just two years and doesn't have an injury history.
Carl Pavano has a higher upside.
by Noah Jarosh on Dec 14, 2010 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
That may be the first time Pavano and the phrase "higher upside"
Have appeared together since circa 2000.
by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 14, 2010 1:06 PM CST up reply actions
Blanton
Pavano simply scares me as someone who will have a career ending injury on the first day pitchers & catcher report.
by Saberilliterate on Dec 14, 2010 12:28 PM CST up reply actions
That's a logical fear.
Except for the logical part.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
by Mykenk on Dec 14, 2010 12:34 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I would like to direct you to
Murphy’s Law
by Saberilliterate on Dec 14, 2010 4:07 PM CST up reply actions
It's Carl Pavano
It’s likely. Keep him away from motor vehicles, that’s where most of his injuries come from.
Right
but when smart people say they’d rather sign Brandon Webb or Brad Penny than Carl Pavano, I feel like hitting them with a car.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
Depends on the pricetag.
If those 2 are looking for $8M+ guaranteed, go pound sand.
If they’ll take like $5M with incentives, we can talk.
The Brewers have nothing to offer
There’s going to be plenty of demand for his services and it’s primarily a salary dump for the Phillies. Obviously, they have no place for Fielder even if the Brewers covered 100% of his salary. They have Shane Victorino in center field tied up until 2012 so Cain isn’t really all that interesting for them. Given the salary constraints they’re probably looking for a package of prospects, anyway. I can’t see the Brewers able to put together a package competitive with any other offers the Phillies will be seeing.
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
I don't think there will be a ton of demand
Blanton is a 5th starter making $17MM the next two years. Whoever is willing to take on the most salary can probably have him for a couple low level prospects.
Get a ife broseph
Ah, nm
I wasn’t really clear on his performance last year. He’d be pretty much on par with what we had with Narveson last year. He would’ve been good for #4 on the Reds, though. If the Brewers can score even more runs in 2011 than they did in 2010 they could compete with Blanton in the rotation (this could actually happen, too).
I agree with you wholeheartedly that he’s well overpaid for his performance. I wonder how much of his salary the Phillies can afford to pick up, though. Cash vs. prospects might be the key in making the deal. The Brewers, oddly enough, have the cash, but not the prospects.
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
Wow
If the Dodgers can sign the Worlds Greatest Third Baseman to become the Worlds Greatest Left Fielder, they will be a lock to win the World Series.
Nationwide Writer for SBNation's Nascar Ranting & Raving (www.4ever3blog.com)
"A ringing single for David Eckstein who, in my view, is the perfect size for an American male." -Bob Costas
awwwww
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
by theBrouhaha on Dec 14, 2010 12:34 PM CST up reply actions
I am unsure I have it in me to root against O.
by Braunstalker on Dec 14, 2010 1:09 PM CST up reply actions
You don't have to.
The Pirates can’t hurt us.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Counsell update
@Haudricourt Melvin on where things stand with FA infielder Craig Counsell: “They said they’d be getting bck to me in another day or so.”
Anyone else slightly annoyed that its taking him this long to make up his mind? With the winter meetings already over and players signing everyday, it would be nice to have options if Counsell isn’t coming back.
Get a ife broseph
I'm shocked they haven't just moved on anyway.
I think this is a pretty clear sign that if Counsell doesn’t come back, we’ll be using an internal option to replace him.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
Probably true
Or else they know that he’s definitely coming back and are just working out the details.
If he isn’t coming back, I’d like to have options other than Luis Cruz in Spring Training.
Get a ife broseph
Maybe this new Don Meineke guy will want to play the Latinos more than Kenny did.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 1:56 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Or maybe Counsell is pulling a Favre.
I hope that doesn’t also mean he likes to text women who work for the team.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Anyone responding might be charged as a pedophile, to boot.
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
by ecocd on Dec 14, 2010 3:14 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Ouch.
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
How about Erick Almonte or Ray Olmedo?
Seems like they could be adequate replacements for Counsell besides Cruz.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I don't know much about either guy
Looks like Almonte has been a 1B since 2008 so that seems less likely, and Olmedo has a .663 OPS in his minor league career, which admittedly isn’t much different from Cruz. Olmedo is a switch hitter which might be appealing.
Get a ife broseph
Neither is really ideal
but if they are just looking for someone to fill Counsell’s role (defensive IF replacement), they have a couple of internal options.
Otherwise, more likely they’d probably get someone in FA. There are more than a few middle infielder FAs who could probably be had for the league minimum and would fill that role adequately (including David Eckstein).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
They're not just looking for someone to fill Counsell's role, though. Or at least they shouldn't be.
Given Escobar’s 2010 performance, they need someone who can probably start 60-80 games out there on the chance Escobar plays his way out of the lineup.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
His winter ball numbers weren't promising, were they?
:(
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
I'd disagree with this
Escobar should be given the full year, especially if he will give you at least what he did last year on defense (+3.8 UZR). They’ve invested too much in him to give up and replace him with a backup after 80 games, especially with as much potential he has on defense.
If he is completely struggling and the Brewers are in a pennant race, you can bring in a Ray Durham or Felipe Lopez type player to take over. With how the current roster is, I don’t think you need to bring in a veteran right away to replace a 24 yr old SS should he struggle. Middle infielders take time.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Dec 14, 2010 5:39 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Other obligatory reminder
Yount came up when he was 18 and turned the corner at age 24. Escobar turns 24 tomorrow.
Not saying Esky should be compared to Yount, but just sayin’.
by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 15, 2010 8:35 AM CST up reply actions
Meaning that
Yount had five full seasons under his belt more than Escobar… and hopefully Esky won’t commit 44 errors his sophomore year
If he's struggling
they won’t be in a pennant race. There’s enough question marks in the lineup (C, CF, RF) that those 4 positions need to at least AVERAGE something okay.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
Right
If they’re not in a pennant race, what’s the point of benching him for a veteran backup?
Get a ife broseph
Agreed
He needs to start hitting this year though, otherwise all of BCB is gonna jump on his back and want him cut.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
by Mykenk on Dec 15, 2010 9:43 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
False
I’d be willing to cut him some slack even with a repeat performance of last season.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Because
1. I think his defense will improve, making him at least worthwhile from a defense standpoint.
2. I don’t think only two full seasons at the MLB level is enough to decide whether or not to keep a player.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Oh, I don't know
Those positions were pretty brutal last year and we still had an elite offense, even without top performances from Braun/Prince. Hopefully they can’t get any worse than 2009.
Shaun and Yo and pray for snow.
It's ridiculous
His performance doesn’t warrant anything more than league minimum.
If you want to give him some extra money for being a veteran fine but there’s no way he should be making more than a million bucks.
It will be stupid and a huge waste of money if they give him more than that.
For your health!
I think you're underestimating the market
He was much worse last year than in 2009 at the plate, but still put up a .322 OBP (.357 OBP the year before) with average defense at 2B, SS and 3B in a reserve role. I don’t think you can find many guys like that on the FA market for less than $1MM.
I’d bet he gets closer to $2MM if he comes back.
Get a ife broseph
If he does it's a waste of money.
He’s 40 years old.
Use someone from the system FFS, get someone up, you never know, maybe someone will break out at the ML level.
Counsell’s career is on life support, no reason to pay him more than twice what a minor league player would cost.
For your health!
This is correct.
Not just because he’s 40, because he’s not good at his job anymore.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
He's a capable backup
but we need a guy who can start 2-3 times a week for Escobar & McGehee. I don’t think Counsell can do that.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
I see your point
Depends on the role. Last year Counsell had 35 starts, mostly at SS. 2-3 starts a week would amount to 60 starts – if that’s the expectation, I see how age would be more of a factor.
At the same time, if you’re hoping to have a utility infielder who can give you 60 starts and 300 ABs, I think they should look to spend a little bit more money and not rely on a minor league scrub, because that would be a pretty iimportant position.
Get a ife broseph
Wrong
A minor leaguer in a utility IF/pinch hitting role isn’t going to have a “break out” season.
Plus, do you know of anyone in the system who can play acceptable defense at 2B, SS and 3B… plus hit .250/.322/.319 at the MLB level?
His 2010 season was a big drop from his 2009 season, but still wasn’t the worst season of his career.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Right.
He’s fine if he’s gonna pinch hit, and fill in once a week, max. But, he can’t fill in if there’s an injury, and can’t play 2-3 days a week like a regular backup would be to give Escobar days off when he needs it.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
Agreed
If Escobar, Weeks or McGehee were to go down with an injury, I don’t think the Brewers see Counsell much more than a temporary replacement until they can call someone up from the minors.
I also don’t see them looking to give Escobar 2-3 days off a week.
Besides, they’ll likely pick up another IF for the bench to fill the void left by Inglett.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Do any of you remember Sam Narron pitching for the Brewers?
It must have been at least 54 or 5 years ago by now.
I won't post RIDE BIKES~! alone in this subject line
No, Sam Narron hasn’t ever pitched for the Brewers. He did start one game for the Rangers in 2004, 2.2 IP, 5 H 4 R 4 ER 3 HR 4 BB 1 SO
So I guess to answer your question, no, I don’t remember Sam Narron Pitching for the Brewers.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 1:59 PM CST up reply actions
I'm a little hazy on the 1956 season
Though I’m sure its possible.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Dec 14, 2010 1:59 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Samuel Woody Narron?
3 seasons with STL 1935, 1942, 1943.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 2:01 PM CST up reply actions
Good old Sammy
Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.
Wow, good to see we've all gotten much more mature. ~
I obviously meant 4-5 years. Regardless, I was wrong and he pitched a game with the Rangers not the Brewers, my apologies.
If the shoe fits, right?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 8:21 PM CST up reply actions
I think we should give Brandon McCarthy a shot
Tall right-hander, recovered from injury, hasn’t had a pig payday yet unlike every other washed-up $10MM/yr free agent out there.
Possibly
If he’s willing to take around $750k or $1M in some non-guaranteed contract, sure.
Also, Tom thinks we shouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers sign Pavano. My favorite quote from the linked article:
Brewers GM Doug Melvin was coy today at the Shaun Marcus press conference when asked if he was still interested in signing free-agent pitcher Carl Pavano.
Also at the SiTS blog, is this article about the Marcum press conference. At about this time last year, there was some outcry amongst Brewers fans here and elsewhere about Randy Wolf’s apparent resignation to signing with Milwaukee (yes, I was probably leading the vanguard on that), so its refreshing to see a guy coming to Milwaukee say:
On his 29th birthday, Marcum was introduced Tuesday afternoon at a media session at Miller Park. After nearly five years in Toronto, the Kansas City native said he was "a dream come true" to be dealt to a team in the Midwest.
"I’m going to go out there and battle and compete and give this organization a chance to win," said Marcum, who went 13-8 with a 3.64 earned run average in 31 starts for Toronto last season.
"You come here and see the atmosphere, the fan support, the players here. It’s an opportunity I’m looking forward to."
Marcum was asked how it felt to escape the power-packed American League East Division.
"A lot better know that Boston went out and did what they did," said Marcum, referring to the acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. "That division is a tough division, day in and day out.
"When you’re in a division like that, you can’t go out there and just throw. You’ve got to learn how to pitch. That’s one thing I was able to do there."
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2010 8:26 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Has anyboday given any thought to what we're going to do for a first baseman in 2012?
I see the Royals have a couple of pretty badass looking prospects at 1B.
I wonder if we could pry one of them away from them…
For your health!
I think it's been discussed here many times before.
McGehee or Hart seem to be two leading internal candidates from people here… and maybe Gamel if he can wrap his head around the idea.
Not sure if the Brewers have anyone the Royals would want in exchange for one of these “badass looking prospects”.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Well presumably they're only going to need one full time 1st baseman
So I would assume one of the 2 could be had.
I don’t know what they’d want either but I think it might bear investigation.
For your health!
The Royals have made no indications that Kila Ka'aihue or Alex Gordon are available.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 15, 2010 6:50 PM CST up reply actions
Is that you, Dayton?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 16, 2010 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
i would rather sign spud webb to fill out the end of the rotation than blanton.
i'm fighting all the french people i can find. happy cinco de mayo!
by sowingwildoats on Dec 14, 2010 7:16 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Is he related to our next firstbaseman?
Sack O’Potatoes?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
by Yar Nivek on Dec 14, 2010 7:26 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
blanton
Since Pavano wants 3 yrs at 10-12 a year. Royals aren’t a match. Reports are saying the Phillies are planning on being ask to eat some of Blanton’s contract. If the Brewers go to the Phillies and say they will take it all on but want to trade a NON-prospect would that get the deal done?
Tim Bring back the chalet,frank charles at the wurlitzer organ, bob betts at the mic, and the barrell man logo!!!!
No freaking way do I want to take on all that salary to get a fat Carl Pavano.
I’ll take the non-fat one for nothing but money.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
by Mykenk on Dec 15, 2010 9:31 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
AMAZING little toy over at Beyond the Box Score
Visual print out of every trade in the last 5 years in mlb….id recommend checking it out…
They have the Brewers with four trades in 2010...
Two with the Blue Jays
One with the Indians
One with the Rangers
The two trades with the Blue Jays were Villanueva and Marcum. The one with the Rangers was must have been the Treanor trade, but what deal did the Brewers have with the Indians? I think they have it mixed up with the Reds (Edmonds).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
It's a mistake
There were only 4 Brewers trades this year: the Villanueva and Marcum trades, the Treanor trade with the Rangers and the Edmonds trade with the Reds. They got the wrong Ohio team. (The Brewers barely had any waiver claims in 2010 either.)
Rule V pickup
can’t recall whether a trade was made, or if they kept him on the roster.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 16, 2010 1:00 PM CST up reply actions
But that may not have come up in the transactions
Lofgren was claimed in the 2009 Rule 5 and then outrighted to Nashville in March. That trade would have been a minor-league transaction if neither player was on the 40-man roster at the time.







































