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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Thursday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while signing a taco.

The final order of business at this week's Winter Meetings was this morning's Rule 5 Draft, and we have a new Brewer to discuss: The team selected Orioles reliever Pat Egan with the ninth overall pick (FanShot). Egan is 26 years old and split the 2010 season between AA and AAA, making 49 relief appearances with a 3.44 ERA and a 42/16 K:BB ratio in 83.2 innings. As is the rule with Rule 5 selections, the Brewers must either keep Egan on their 25 man roster or DL through the 2011 season or offer him back to the Orioles for $25,000.

Tom Haudricourt has the best scouting report on Egan I've seen. Here's the quick version:

  • Brewer scouts compared Egan's arsenal and ability to get ground balls to Kameron Loe.
  • They saw him pitch in the AFL this fall.
  • They like the fact that he can pitch multiple innings.

The most interesting note from that post, though, has little to do with Egan. Not that long ago the team seemed to dismiss the notion that Kameron Loe could move to the rotation, but this quote would seem to suggest they're considering it again now:

And [Brewer special advisor Dick] Groch noted that with a shortage of starting pitching, keeping a pitcher such as Egan might allow the Brewers to move Loe back to a starting role, which he has done in the past.

"It gives us the opportunity to experiment with Loe, if we choose," said Groch.

Jim Callis of Baseball America posted a quick scouting report on Twitter, and said Egan "lacks a true go-to pitch."

Meanwhile, the Brewers also lost a pitcher in the draft: Adrian Rosario, who split 2010 between Helena and Wisconsin, was selected by the Orioles fourth overall. Rosario made just 14 appearances for the Timber Rattlers in 2010, posting a 4.50 ERA with 15 walks and 44 strikeouts in 32 innings. Even Jim Callis of Baseball America seemed surprised by the selection.

Egan was the Brewers' only Rule 5 selection. They passed in the second round of the major league phase and all rounds of the minor league phase. Rosario was also the only Brewer selected by other teams.

There had been some speculation that the PTBNL in the Carlos Villanueva trade would be named after today's draft, but apparently that's not the case. Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star is reporting that the delay had nothing to do with the draft, and the player coming to Milwaukee won't be named until after the first of the year.

New acquisition Wil Nieves' deal is expected to be made official tomorrow, once he passes his physical. The deal is non-guaranteed, which makes me feel a little better about it. Ben Goessling of MASN passes along this Youtube video of Nieves' defining moment (and possibly his only positive contribution) as a National.

Elsewhere in Winter Meeting news: The Brewers continue to pursue Carl Pavano, but Tom Haudricourt says they're unwilling to offer more than two years (FanShot). It sounds like the front office may finally have learned their lesson about long term deals for pitchers in their mid-30's. The Twins are expected to offer Pavano a third year and remain the most likely candidate to sign him.

Team officials also met with Craig Counsell yesterday and had "a nice exchange," but it's still unknown if Counsell is planning on playing next season.

Here are some notes on things that aren't happening:

The Brewers and Braves could still work something out, though: Mark Bowman of MLB.com says the two sides are still trying to find the right fit.

Looking back, Adam McCalvy has the final note on the Brett Lawrie/Shaun Marcum trade. Lawrie told Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com that he knew a trade was coming.

Around baseball:

Braves: Signed reliever George Sherrill to a one year deal.
Diamondbacks: Re-signed pitcher Mike Hampton to a minor league deal.
Mariners: Signed 1B/DH Jack Cust to a one year, $2.5 million deal.
Mets: Signed pitcher Boof Bonser to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Acquired J.J. Hardy and infielder Brendan Harris from the Twins for two minor league pitchers and re-signed pitcher Koji Uehara to a one year deal with a vesting option for 2012.
Padres: Acquired shortstop Jason Bartlett from the Rays for pitchers Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell.
Phillies: Signed reliever Dennys Reyes to a one year, $1.1 million deal.
Pirates: Acquired pitcher Cesar Valdez from the Diamondbacks, completing the Zach Duke trade.
Red Sox: Signed Carl Crawford to a seven year, $142 million deal.
Reds: Re-signed infielder Miguel Cairo to a two year deal.
Royals: Signed outfielders Melky Cabrera (one year, $1.25 million) and Jeff Francoeur.

Carlos Pena's new one year, $10 million deal with the Cubs was one of this week's more interesting transactions. Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball notes that the Cubs now owe over $91 million to six players in 2011.

Today in former Brewers: The Platoon Advantage ranked the 40 greatest shortstops of all time, and Robin Yount checked in at #6.

The Winter Meetings come to a close today, leaving us alone to face the cold, hard reality that we're still over two months away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training. If you're suffering from the related depression, here's something that clearly won't help: ESPN has created a calculator that tells you how long it takes for Jayson Werth to earn your annual salary.

On this day in 1977, the Brewers traded pitchers Jim Slaton and Rich Folkers to the Tigers for Ben Oglivie. The deal turned out to be one of the more lopsided in Brewer history: Slaton only pitched for the Tigers for one season before returning to the Brewers as a free agent while Oglivie spent the final nine years of his career in Milwaukee, making three All Star appearances and winning a Silver Slugger Award.

On this day one year ago, the Brewers officially announced the signings of Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins.

Happy birthday today to:

  • 1977, 1980-85 and 1989 Brewer Ed Romero, who turns 53.
  • 1957-58 Milwaukee Brave Bob Hazle, who would have turned 80.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I've got mail.

Drink up.

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The Urban Meyer one might not be bad

To match his current salary, all you have to do is quit twice.

I never use a big word when a diminutive word would suffice.

by TheJay on Dec 9, 2010 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

So is there another huge drop off after Pavano?

I mean there is the huge gap between Lee and Pavano, but is there anyone else close to Pavano that we could get cheaper with maybe somewhat less results? Or is the general consensus that signing anyone else would be a mistake and we should either trade or go with what we have got?

BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy

by Jeo on Dec 9, 2010 11:36 AM CST reply actions  

If they're cheaper and worse than Pavano

they’re not really “close” to him, are they?

I say, if he’ll take a 2 year deal, do it quick. A third will give me a little more pause, but… I’d still probably do that.

Twitterize me: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Dec 9, 2010 11:38 AM CST up reply actions  

Huh

I guess I figured no one in their right mind would give Pavano three years. Anyone else up for it?

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Dec 9, 2010 11:45 AM CST up reply actions  

That has to be a joke?

You want Doug Melvin to sign Pavano to a long term deal…wow.

by BUCKS on Dec 9, 2010 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

RIDE BIKES~!

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 9, 2010 9:48 PM CST up reply actions  

With those numbers, then you're paying 6 million for his 3rd year

While that’s still probably overpaying for his 3rd year, it’s not inconceivable that he could approach that. I’m just wondering how many people would accept that 2/24 number.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 12:35 PM CST up reply actions  

I wouldnt even want 2

He’s the ground ball version of Randy Wolf. I wouldnt expect more than 2 WAR from him as a Brewer. He’s pretty much the $10 million version of the guy they picked up today in the rule 5 draft.

They’ve got to go with what they have, or try and make a trade. If they could move Gomez/mid level prospect for a guy with upside, thats about the only option left. Otherwise you get into the “move Fielder for an mlb starter” realm, and its a wash for the w-l record.

Save the money and hope for the best with what they have.

by backtocali on Dec 9, 2010 12:07 PM CST up reply actions  

i disagree

while i don’t like pavano (i lived in ny during his yankee years), the team is clearly trying to “get better quicker” and make some kind of push in ‘11 and perhaps ’12. so “save the money” doesn’t do anything, unless you think he’s a push with loe or cappy or narv-dog. i think he’s an improvement over that.

by Capt Science on Dec 9, 2010 12:16 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I guess my meaning was

That he is a groundball pticher but only worth a little under 2 wins per season. So if he struck everyone out, or got groundball outs, if he is only worth 1.5 to 2 extra wins, probably not worth it, and definitely not at his asking price.

by backtocali on Dec 9, 2010 1:11 PM CST up reply actions  

No one's worth their asking price

it’s baseball, not reality.

Twitterize me: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Dec 9, 2010 1:12 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Finally, reality!!! I'm using up my "!" rights, but it is worth it!!!

Thanks Mykenk, that’s all that needs to be said; “it’s baseball, not reality”. The ’Crew are doing better than any of us would have thought so far and I like it!

by Braski on Dec 9, 2010 7:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Pavano has been worth an average of 3.45 WAR the last two seasons

How is he suddenly a <2 WAR pitcher? Even a 2 WAR pitcher is probably worth $10+ million/year, given the crazy market.

I don’t think WAR is a very good stat for evaluating pitchers though, especially projecting pitchers’ future performance.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Dec 9, 2010 1:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Not really using it as my base

Going off of what he was projected for last year, how much he beat that projection by, and then factoring in what he did in very pitcher friendly Target Field, and what he is expected to do going forward.

It comes out to a 1.5 to 2 WAR type of projection. Lets not forget the guy is 35 years old as well (same goes for Wolf).

by backtocali on Dec 9, 2010 1:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Re: Pavano, the Twins defense and the Metrodome/Target Field

It’s only one year of data, so inconclusive (because park factors can fluctuate), but Target Field is not very pitcher friendly. In 2010 it was the 19th most friendly park for hitters, compared to 15th for Miller Park.

In 2009, when Pavano actually had a better FIP/xFIP/WAR in Minnesota, he was playing part of the season in the Metrodome, which was the 6th most friendly park for hitters (Miller Park ranked 27th that year)

As for the Twins defense, there also isn’t that big of a gap between them and the Brewers. The Twins had the 7th best UZR/150 versus 15th best for the Brewers, but a total difference of less than 5 runs/150 DG.

In 2009, the Twins were the 24th best team in UZR/150 (i.e. 6th worst) and the Brewers were the 12th best.

We’re also supposed to have a defensive wizard at shortstop, who could easily start living up to that promise next season.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Dec 9, 2010 3:50 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't normally agree with you

but I’m unsure that Pavano and Miller Park + the Brewers defense would make a good fit. I think a lot of Pavano’s good fortune with the Twins (remember, he wasn’t that great with Cleveland) is due to what’s behind him and surrounding him.

by morineko on Dec 9, 2010 2:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I would give three years if that's what it took

We’d be overpaying, but with Gallardo/Marcum/Pavano/Wolf I don’t see how we aren’t serious contenders next season.

If a Greinke trade is unlikely, I don’t see any other way to get a starter that looks to be as good as Pavano in 2011.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Dec 9, 2010 12:35 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

We've been on the opposite sides of the boat on a lot of things before

but this isn’t one of them.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 9, 2010 9:51 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Jack Cust

And his career 122 OPS+ seems like a steal for 2.5 mil.

"If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be." - Yogi Berra

by mnbrewer on Dec 9, 2010 11:37 AM CST reply actions  

Would have been a nice pick up

If Fielder had been moved for prospect pitching, saving almost $14 mil in salary.

by backtocali on Dec 9, 2010 12:08 PM CST up reply actions  

I was waiting for the Brewers to make a move for Cust

That was before absolutely no market developed for Fielder though.

For your health!

by menchkins on Dec 9, 2010 7:58 PM CST up reply actions  

And Adam Dunn?

So, you were waiting for the Brewers to trade Fielder and then make a move for Cust after Dunn signed? So…for…a week?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 9, 2010 9:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes

After Dunn signed, Cust looked like the next best option.
Assuming he can actually play first base of course which I have no idea if he can.

For your health!

by menchkins on Dec 10, 2010 5:17 PM CST up reply actions  

I shouldn't have said "waiting"

Hoping would have been more appropriate.
Hoping they’d trade Fielder, then Hoping they’d get Cust.

For your health!

by menchkins on Dec 10, 2010 5:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Ok. Its much clearer now.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 10, 2010 8:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Exploring other start options

I’m a little disappointed the Brewers aren’t looking like they’ll be able to find a “proven” player for the 4/5 spot. That said, I don’t like them overpaying for players when they have options like Loe and Capuano (I’d assume they’ll sweeten their offer to ensure his services for 2011 in this case).

If nothing else, they’ll have money available to include in a trade deadline trade of Fielder if they’re sellers or some additional space to take on a salary if they’re buyers. Or they could pocket the money and turn a profit which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 11:38 AM CST reply actions  

Why pay over for "proven"

When you have in house options.

The real need is for a #2 starter and that is infinitely more expensive.

by backtocali on Dec 9, 2010 12:10 PM CST up reply actions  

If there were an #2 out there they might be bidding for him

I’d say they probably would be bidding for a legitimate #2 if he were on the market and would be willing to hand out a 3/45 deal, but he’s not out there.

Also, there are a lot of teams that pay over for “proven” when they have in house options. The grass is always greener.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 12:34 PM CST up reply actions  

#2 starter?

You mean, like Gallardo or Marcum?

Cleary, the Brewers are an offensive team. They just need some quality arms to eat innings and give the offense a chance. Think about how the Brewers as of today would have to use Capuano or Loe as the fifth starter after having acquired a legit number two? Then think about how we fielded a team the last two years without that guy or anyone at his level. That was some serious junk out there on the field these past two years. I’d love to see the Brewers acquire a solid fourth starter somehow or at least some more competition. They have to get somebody otherwise they’ll be leaning heavily on Capuano’s tendon and hoping that the true Narveson is the solid pitcher near the end of the last two seasons rather than 50% chance of getting shelled like the middle of the season.

by Mr. Saturn on Dec 9, 2010 12:46 PM CST up reply actions  

Gallardo Marcum

Id call a #1 and a #3. The thing, imo, that they need is about 4 wins to get them to contender status, or a #2 starter.

I think the main problem the last two years for the Brewers is that they have had pitchers filling in roles that they werent suited to. Randy Wolf is an effective #4 starter, but if youre relying on him as your #2 or #3, its going to effect the team down the chain of starters, and you lose out in the w-l record. Theyve had a bunch of junk as you mention at the bottom of that rotation, and if you were to pick up another #4, you are just relying even more on the offense and will lose out in those 8-7 games, or when the offense doesnt show up (like it got into stretches last season).

Has anyone looked into the effect it had on the teams offensive output that some of those lopsided Pirate games had? (i.e. Brewers had high ranked offense, but if you were to take out a few of those 20-0 and 18-3 games, does it drop them considerably in the offensive rankings?)

by backtocali on Dec 9, 2010 1:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes

without the 20-0 and 18-3 games, we would have had 2 fewer wins.

Twitterize me: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Dec 9, 2010 1:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Tom?

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Dec 9, 2010 1:13 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

You clearly disagree with our GM

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/111606279.html

He says they found a number 2, but weren’t able to find a number 4. He also didn’t want to give up his young players, presumably Cain. At the very least, we know what he expects the Brewers need to be competitive in the NL Central and that’s one more pitcher with the offense they have right now.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 2:27 PM CST up reply actions  

And a truckload of semantics.

Which, unfortunately, the team decided to park right here.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Dec 9, 2010 2:48 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

haha

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Dec 9, 2010 5:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Brewers did benefit from their two blowout wins

I’ll try to remember to post a Fanpost about it later tonight, but I ran the numbers and if we use a 10% trimmed mean (drop 16 lowest and 16 highest scoring games) the Brewers scored the 6th most runs on average in the NL compared to 4th most overall. The Reds, Phillies and Rockies are #1-3 respectively in both total and trimmed so it passes the sniff test.

Statistically speaking, however, this is abusing the trimmed mean, because it’s an unbiased estimator only for symmetric distributions which most certainly isn’t true for runs scored in a game over a 162 game season.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 2:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Along those same lines

You can’t remove those games unless you assume that every game is independent, which simply isn’t the case.

Twitterize me: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Dec 9, 2010 3:00 PM CST up reply actions  

After finals, I'm going to put together a big fanpost on RS distributions.

I look forward to the statistical stuff!

Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.

by Yar Nivek on Dec 9, 2010 6:40 PM CST up reply actions  

No shit

If you take out every team’s top 3 games in offense, we’d be right back where we started. A run is a run.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Dec 9, 2010 3:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Actually the Brewers drop behind the Cardinals dropping the top 3 games

They go from the 4th most to the 5th most runs scored in the NL.

I’m not sure what you mean by “a run is a run,” because that’s not really true. The 4th run of a 4-3 victory isn’t nearly as important as the 4th run of a 4-9 loss. Similarly, the 11th run in an 11-3 game isn’t nearly as important as that 4th run in the 4-3 game. Every run is not created equal, though most of those leverage runs probably average out which is why Run Differential does tend to predict overall win percentage reasonably well.

Of course, trimming the top 3 run total games isn’t a very good way to measure “meaningful” or “leverage” runs scored.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 3:21 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

They're equally important

when you’re measuring aggregate offensive performance for a season.

Twitterize me: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Dec 9, 2010 3:24 PM CST up reply actions  

This

Is what I’m talking about!

by backtocali on Dec 9, 2010 4:19 PM CST up reply actions  

To be fair

QOG isn’t a particularly good predictor of win percentage, because it doesn’t take into account team ERA (see Giants and Padres). It does make for a rough measure of consistency, but I’m not sure how important “consistency” is to overall win percentage, either.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 4:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Gotcha

Pretty much what I was asking in my post below.

You’re clearly pretty good with the statistics and it makes sense, I am just wondering how important the “consistency” is to winning.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Dec 9, 2010 4:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Sounds like a research project to me

Anyone know of studies done on consistency from the pitching and hitting side of the game, particularly one debunking their importance to performance during the regular season?

From a statistics perspective, Run Differential is a darn good predictor of win percentage so there probably isn’t much to gain on that, but out of academic curiosity, I’d be interested to see if some measure of consistency would have predictive power, too. Combine the two and maybe you get something a smidgen better than Run Differential on its own.

I suppose I can give it a whirl. The data aren’t all that difficult to compile, if a bit time intensive.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 4:42 PM CST up reply actions  

This is a good one

Are Foolish Consistencies the Hobgoblins of Starting Pitchers?

Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.

by Yar Nivek on Dec 9, 2010 10:23 PM CST up reply actions  

A team can be consistently bad

I knew there was something staring me in the face. A team that scores 1 run every single game is 100% consistent, but terrible. Just because an offense is consistent, doesn’t mean they’re good. Consistency on its own wouldn’t have any predictive power for win percentage.

Scoring lots of runs consistently will win games. That’s not really a particularly inisghtful observation.

Some combination of average runs scored and consistency might have some meaning beyond just runs produced, however.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 5:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Isn't that all largely random though?

It’s not like Brewers players see that they have a lead and then decide to start hitting. A player and team as a whole is going to have a certain number of hits, 2B, HR, etc. over the course of the season, and how those end up being distributed will fluctuate from year to year.

Also, a rate offensive stat might make sense than pure runs (given the different schedules of different teams, etc.). By OPS+, the Brewers were second in the NL to the Reds (108 v. 105) last year. I don’t know how that changes if you take out some of our blowouts, but I don’t know why you would. If in a theoretical scenario you projected the Brewers to exactly repeat their offensive performance (same OPS+ or same total runs), the distribution isn’t going to be the same and instead of a few blowouts we might end up with more “quality offensive games” or whatever.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Dec 9, 2010 4:26 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't think "largely" but there's going to be variability, yes

QOG would be just like every other statistic in baseball, but the sample size is only 162 instead of the thousands of PAs that make up team OPS+.

The thing is, with a big lead or a big deficit, teams are practically always going to be throwing sub-par relievers. Meanwhile, in the same scenario, the teams are likely to still be starting most of their first-line position guys – that’s just a consequence of a 25-man roster. The team isn’t consciously trying to tack on a few more runs, but they’re going score more just because they’re facing weaker pitching. The same goes for their opponents, too. QOG has just as many warts as Quality Starts.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 4:36 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't agree with the weaker pitching argument

For example, in the 20 run game the Brewers lit up Dotel and Hanrahan for 10 runs, and both of those guys were above average bullpen options last year.

And while the team down may pull their top guys, so will the team that is ahead. Using that same 20 run game as an example – Carlos Gomez got 7 PAs, Inglett got 3, Gerut 2, Parra and Vargas both batted. Prince, Braun and McGehee came out of the game early…etc.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Dec 9, 2010 4:47 PM CST up reply actions  

I looked at the distribution of runs scored

If there was a “weaker pitcher effect” one would expect some suggestion of a bimodal distribution. It’s actually an incredibly smooth curve. I don’t think the weaker pitching argument has much merit, after all.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 5:05 PM CST up reply actions  

also don't reliever ERAs tend to be lower than starter ERAs?

then again, a) ERA is flawed and b) relievers get the benefit of partial innings – fewer outs for runs to score during.

by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 10, 2010 1:02 PM CST up reply actions  

But QOG is completely different from most other stats, because it's measuring the team as a whole

You mentioned consistency above (which is basically the overriding argument against the Brewers offense here), but if consistency exists its something that applies to the individual players.

A given player has peaks and troughs in his offensive output over an entire season, like an oscillating wave. When a bunch of players are peaking in the same game, it’s like constructive interference and amplifies the team as a whole’s offensive performance: creating a 20+ run blowout or whatever. When a bunch of players are in troughs at the same time, the team doesn’t score any runs.

So looking back, in 2010 the individual Brewers players’ may have combined such that they had a few major blowouts and fewer total QOG, but that seems completely irrelevant for projecting how the same offense will do in 2011. The peaks and troughs of an individual player’s performance are largely random over an entire season.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Dec 9, 2010 4:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Descriptive vs. predictive

At the very least, a consistency measure could be used as a post-mortem tool.

I wonder how random the oscillation of the wave really is. One could start building a hierarchical model on consistency of the individual players and their impact on the consistency of the team as a whole.

… and consistency might not have any impact on winning so it wouldn’t really show anything useful and would be worthless for fantasy. Still, it could be fun.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 5:36 PM CST up reply actions  

Anecdotally

It does seem like the Brewers have a lot of players who are particularly streaky (even without JJ Hardy anymore). I don’t know if that’s my bias from actually watching this team and not others though.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Dec 9, 2010 6:39 PM CST up reply actions  

ditto on all counts

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 6:58 PM CST up reply actions  

I still don't follow

Or I guess I don’t understand what you gain by breaking it down to this extent.

They had 66 games with 5 or more runs, if they had scored an additional run in 4 games, bring the total to 70 games (good for 5th momst) does that result in what, maybe one additional win?

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Dec 9, 2010 4:29 PM CST up reply actions  

depends on what game (which is why it's kind of goofy to look at)

could be no extra wins, could have forced four games into extras

by warwick5s on Dec 9, 2010 4:49 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree with the concept, and it's an accurate description of why what happened last year happened

However, I don’t think it’s predictive. Like looking at a team’s average with RISP over a year, it might explain something about what happened but has no real predictive value. I see no reason why this trend would continue next year.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Dec 9, 2010 6:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Problem being 5 runs usually wasn’t enough.

by jmeks23 on Dec 9, 2010 9:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Re: Lopsided games

All my analysis of lopsided games has shown me that they don’t significantly skew seasonal numbers; if you remove everyone’s blowouts in the same proportion they stack up the same.

by nullacct on Dec 10, 2010 12:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Marcum is a #1

If you’re the Blue Jays – he was their opening day starter.

by nullacct on Dec 10, 2010 8:13 AM CST up reply actions  

Chris Narveson is a #1

If you’re the Pirates.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 10, 2010 10:06 AM CST up reply actions  

Does no one think Mark Rogers is an option to start?

Obviously very limited sample last year but he looked pretty damn good to me.

For your health!

by menchkins on Dec 9, 2010 8:04 PM CST up reply actions  

The Crawford signing...

…means the Red Sox have an extra outfielder. Most likely Cam…possibly even Ellsbury. Both give the Braves an additional option. But can’t picture Chipper untuckin em.

by infield fly on Dec 9, 2010 12:57 PM CST reply actions  

i'd expect cameron to be the 4th of

not sure they’ll trade him, though i suppose it depends on how healthy he proves and whether they’re feeling good about the rest of their OF. keep in mind they didn’t mind paying ’tek a lot to backup last year and had major health issues in the OF. they have enough money to just take the insurance, so to speak.

by Capt Science on Dec 9, 2010 3:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Fielder in a contract year

I don’t know if an analysis has been done in baseball, but it’s a pretty well-known fact that in the NBA, players tend to elevate their game (or at least their stats) in a contract year – year before they become a free agent. They tend to come into the season in better condition and put more energy into the day-to-day grinds.

We all know about Fielder’s consistent early-season woes which I thought were related to his conditioning to being the season. Last year, he reportedly came to camp in much better condition and it still happened so maybe it’s a cold weather thing.

Anyone think we might see a 6-7 HR April and a 45 HR season this year from him in his contract year?

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 9, 2010 1:12 PM CST reply actions  

Fielder is a career .271/.376/.468 hitter in April

Easily his lowest OPS of any month. If he could just have an average April (.279/.385/.535), then he’d be on pace for a career year.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Dec 9, 2010 2:09 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm calling it now

Fielder 2011 MVP.

Not only will 2011 be a contract year, he’s due for another great season (going by his current good season, great season, good season, great season, etc. trend).

My goodness.

by BrewHaHeather on Dec 9, 2010 8:49 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

rec'd

Shaun and Yo and pray for snow.

by SRB on Dec 9, 2010 9:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Looking for a cause? Interesting.

2006 good year – Rookie season
2007 great year – New Player Glow
2008 good year – pissed he wasn’t making more money
2009 great year – making more money
2010 good year – team sucked?
2011 great year – contract year and making a lot money

I wonder if there’s an explanation to his every other year trend. Probably not. Fun to think about, though.

Minecraft is like digital Legos. I like digital things and I like Legos. I am now addicted to Minecraft.

by ecocd on Dec 10, 2010 8:21 AM CST up reply actions  

Just say no to Pavano

“Recycle for good Milwaukee”. Too much for an aging average pitcher. Washburn could be signed for a quarter of that. Penny isn’t a huge injury risk and could really help the rotation. Harden could work if he has limited innings, using Capuano as a spot starter. I do not think signing Pavano at 12 mil per is the answer. Don’t mind the signing at 7 mil per for 2 years.

by Mr. McGehee on Dec 9, 2010 2:02 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

Can Washburn even pitch anymore?

Harden sure can’t, Penny IS a huge injury risk and Capuano’s not going to sign to be a bullpen pitcher, he can get starts elsewhere I think.

And 7 mil for 2 years is laughable. Absolute joke. He’ll get 10+ per, no question about it. He might not be the best choice for the brewers, but he’s WAY better than those 3 guys you listed.

Twitterize me: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Dec 9, 2010 2:46 PM CST up reply actions  

Webb

Still remains the best gamble left on the market that can be had relatively inexpensively.

For your health!

by menchkins on Dec 9, 2010 8:12 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't want to speak for everyone here

but I certainly am aware that Brandon Webb still hasn’t signed with a team. I’m actually also aware that you really, really, really, really, really want the Brewers to sign him.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 9, 2010 10:00 PM CST up reply actions  

He hasn't pitched in two years

That doesn’t sound like someone we can count on for this year.

by nullacct on Dec 10, 2010 8:15 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm with you

I don’t think menchkins believes that. I also don’t think that he thinks that folks here have picked up on his wild desire to sign Webb.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 10, 2010 10:07 AM CST up reply actions  

All I said is he's the best GAMBLE on the market

Though he comes with risks he also comes with a tremendous POSSIBLE upside.
We won’t end up getting him and it sounds the Cubs might so it will definitely be interesting to see how he does this year.

He could be awful, certainly, but he might also be great, I would be more concerned about his injury if he had been a flamethrower but he’s not and never has been. He’s a sinker ball pitcher. If he gets his velocity back to where it used to be (upper 80’s to low 90’s) I’ll be surprised if he’s not a valuable pitcher.

For your health!

by menchkins on Dec 10, 2010 5:24 PM CST up reply actions  

best gamble !/= longest odds

Pete Sampras isn’t going to win Wimbledon next year

by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 10, 2010 6:36 PM CST up reply actions  

He might go...

He just won’t be competing = )

For your health!

by menchkins on Dec 10, 2010 11:06 PM CST up reply actions  

None of the FA options are good...

Their only hope is through a trade. Marcum makes the staff a lot better, but considering how bad it was, it isn’t saying much. Yovanni is not an ace yet, and even if Marcum repeats last year they still won’t contend. Wolf is too much of a gamble, and there’s absolutely nothing behind him. People saying Narveson has so much upside…where? Please tell me where it’s hidden. Over almost an entire season he only got slightly below a 5.00 ERA in his last start. He got rocked almost every start in the 1st inning, and he rarely if ever made it out of the 6th inning. Looks like a keeper! He might have been touted prior to his injuries, but right now he’s a barely passable 5th starter. I don’t see it changing much either, but I could be surprised. Capuano, if he signs then is the other starter. That scares me too, because while Capuano showed a lot more than Narveson, he still had really bad outings and he only started a handful of games. I’m not sure he can stay healthy or stay productive throughout an entire season.

And just to briefly comment on Wolf, there’s no guarantee that because he finished the season strong last year that it translates directly to 2011. He might not be as bad, but he’s a career 4+ ERA guy (1.32 career WHIP too…eesh). So let’s not fool ourselves expecting him to be the 2009 Randy Wolf. That was the 2nd best year of his entire 12 year career. And by the way you Pavano lovers, Wolf’s career stats are still better than Pavano’s, and Wolf’s 2009 was still better than Pavano’s 2010. Yet we want to give him the same or more than what Wolf got last year?

They still need to trade for someone like Garza or along those lines. Otherwise I still think it will be a very long year.

by jmeks23 on Dec 9, 2010 9:19 PM CST reply actions  

Are you and backtocali cyborgs send from the future to bum out Brewers fans?

Only backtocali is sort of good now, and you’re the evil T-1000 shapeshifting dude?

Shaun and Yo and pray for snow.

by SRB on Dec 9, 2010 9:24 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

I dont really know jmeks23

But I would like to subscribe to his newsletter

by backtocali on Dec 9, 2010 9:59 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm a realist, what can I say.

I try to be optimistic about things, but sadly…the Brewer’s and Buck’s have lead me down a pessimistic road.

by jmeks23 on Dec 9, 2010 11:05 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm pessimistic

whenever I’s see incorrect inclusion of apostrophe’s for reason’s that are grammatically incorrect.

by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 10, 2010 1:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Trade who for Garza?

That’s the problem. The Rays probably don’t want Fielder and the farm system’s not sufficient enough

by ilikeburritos on Dec 10, 2010 6:43 AM CST up reply actions  

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