Baseball Prospectus Brewers Top 11
From the link:
Five-Star Prospects
1. Alcides Escobar, SS
Four-Star Prospects
2. Brett Lawrie, 2B
Three-Star Prospects
3. Mat Gamel, 3B
4. Wily Peralta, RHP
5. Cody Scarpetta, RHP
6. Jon Lucroy, C
7. Eric Arnett, RHP
8. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP
9. Kentrail Davis, OF
10. Angel Salome, C
Two-Star Prospects
11. Logan Schafer, OF
Four More:
12. Mark Rogers, RHP: Rogers’ stuff was outstanding after missing two years due to shoulder problems, but can he pitch more than three innings every five days?
13. Caleb Gindl, OF: He’s a small outfielder and very low on tools, but his production at the plate has been impressive.
14. Jake Odorizzi, RHP: He has advanced command and control for his age, but Odorizzi’s stuff has yet to take the expected step forward.
15. Zach Braddock, LHP: This power lefty took a big step forward with a move to bullpen; he has the ceiling of a set-up man.
6 months ago
Supertramp
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Also
This was all part of the “free” section of BP.com and stuff you see before you sign into your pay account, so I’m assuming its OK to post here.
Other comments I found interesting:
- Called Davis’ potential as high as anyone in the system
- Had issues with Arnett’s delievery with ceiling as a 3rd starter
- Lawrie’s bat will play anywhere if he can’t stick at 2B
Get a ife broseph
Been keeping track of these BP lists
And the Brewer 11 ranks 19th among the 23 teams profiled so far.
On Lawrie and Gamel, Goldstein calls their D flat out awful and that they are both probably headed for a position change.
How are you evaluating them?
Just using number of stars for each player and coming up with an average?
In past years they have done Org rankings after all the Top 11s are done so I’ll be interested to see what they come up with.
Get a ife broseph
points
5 for 5 star, 4 for 4 star, etc and adding them all up
FWIW, Rays are top with 45 total, Oakland and Texas with 40, top NL so far is the Cubs with 39.
I'm calling BS on that.
Lawrie has played one year at second base. I’ve seen him play roughly a dozen times and, while he’s not a Gold Glover at this point, he’s also not a butcher and given that he’s still learning the position, I think that’s pretty good.
And when we saw Gamel in Milwaukee this season, I think we reached a general consensus that rumors of his defensive demise were greatly exaggerated.
In all honesty, I’ve lost most faith in BP at this point. This reeks of “I heard someone say that once, so I’m going to repeat it.”
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
And when I said I'm calling BS
I meant on the defensive ratings, not your analysis of BP’s work. Should have been clearer on that.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Quotes
Here are the quotes on the D:
Lawrie: “He’s downright awful there, with below average range and agility, and many scouts remarked about his lack of effort defensively, forecasting a move to left field down the line.”
Gamel: “He’s sloppy, just a plain bad third baseman with bad hands, slow actions, and an inaccurate arm.”
The words...
“Perpetually stoned” didn’t appear in Gamel’s report? b/c that’s how I see him…
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
If nothing else, Goldstein is consistent
And you could argue, somewhat predictable.
Goldstein’s writeup on Gamel in last year’s top 11 prospects:
Gamel: “From his hands to his instincts to his arm accuracy, everything about him defensively screams for a move to first base or left field”
Get a ife broseph
You make a good point about Gamel
While the 191 innings at 3B he has at the major league level aren’t enough to be taken as an indication of his true defensive ability, I think the fact that he maintained a respectable UZR/150 that long goes to show that he’s not as horrendous as he was always touted to be. He may not be a good or even average defender, but he’s clearly not as terrible as Braun clearly was at 3B.
It’s also interesting that UZR seems to like his defense a lot more than the official scorers did (based on FP). I wonder if they were influenced by his minor league reputation too.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I agree...
… I don’t think it’s any great secret or surprise that he’s subpar defensively at 3rd. What I’m curious about is what the Brewers really think of his bat. If they really believe in McGehee, and it appears that they do, keeping Gamel at 3rd given his defensive limitations just doesn’t make any sense. Yet every time someone mentions the possibility of moving him to RF, where his defensive limitations might be slightly less of a liability, Melvin acts like we just suggested that the Brewers sign up to be the Cubs AAA squad. The only way that reaction makes sense to me is if they don’t think his bat is good enough to justify finding a way to get him on the field.
Regardless of what the truth is, I don’t think there’s much question that he’s been handled poorly in the last 12 months. He’s gone from a guy that could have easily been the centerpiece of the Sabathia deal 18 months ago to a guy without much trade value and with little chance to help the organization at the major league level in 2010.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 10, 2010 4:27 PM CST up reply actions
Health issues
durability as well are keeping him down would be my guess.
And then to top it off his ceiling as a set up guy dont help him much.
Wow
Gamel’s stock really has taken a hit.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Offseason
Goldstein mentions how Gamel was dangled this offseason for a trade and there werent any encouraging takers.
After the year he had being a 3 star isnt too surprising. I really think that the Brewers have hurt him. Macha didnt use him correctly, his being blocked by a guy who is due for a big slide, its perhaps hurting the kid to the point that he becomes a bust if it all doesnt fix itself this year.
A move to RF might save his career (at least in Milwaukee) but I felt that his D could have been continued to be worked on at 3b, and that he should be given the shot to be the every day guy there. He is the superior talent to McGehee imo. He (McG) should have been the guy dangled for pitching this offseason.
I agree with everything you said.
Although I understand why they would dangle Gamel instead of McGehee. Despite the year each of them had (1 good; 1 bad) Gamel’s potential should net the team a lot more in return than McGehee. It really depends what they were looking for in return, I suppose. If they were looking for a difference maker at SP, trading McGehee isn’t going to get you very far.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Also
I don’t think that the way Gamel was misused for a few months last year stunted his growth tremendously. I still feel like he’ll reach most of his offensive potential in a couple years. Let’s just hope we can figure out a place to put him in the field.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
He does tend
to slow down in the 2nd half, but if he gets off to a hot start in AAA or McGehee’s knee doesnt hold up that will be his in.
Hopefully you're right...
… and it didn’t get into his head too much. It looks to me like it may have based on what came after he got Mached, but hopefully not. What it clearly did do was destroy his trade value this past offseason, which was a fairly crucial offseason given the rapidly closing window Milwaukee has with this set of position players.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 10, 2010 1:15 PM CST up reply actions
When was Gamel dangled?
Wasn’t Melvin’s public position always that Gamel wouldn’t be moved? If Gamel was on the trading block, there would have been takers. I think his “struggles” last season are being greatly exaggerated. Not every player is an immediate superstar at the major league level – a .332 wOBA is suddenly a failure for a young player with barely any consistent major league experience?
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
DM publically said that he wouldn't rule anything out.
I think the only person he basically said he wouldn’t trade was Prince.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Grain of salt
DM has to keep a low profile and not show his hand when it comes to things like this. Same goes for Attanasio. Thats why you cant really believe what these guys say when they talk about potential deals being done.
Maybe since it was "after the fact"
He was a little more candid about it. One other possibility is that he was told it from other organizations.
Or he's just speculating/misinterpreting stories from the off-season.
The organization might be going with McGehee for next season, but he’s still unproven enough that Gamel isn’t exactly expendable. Gamel still has value within the Brewers long term at either 3B (if McGehee doesn’t stick), 1B (if Fielder doesn’t re-sign), maybe OF.
Even if Goldstein somehow has an inside scoop about Gamel being “dangled” (which I highly doubt) and the Brewers not being impressed by any offers, that’s just because he still has a lot of value for the team and they’re not all that pressured to deal him. Or am I meant to believe that no teams even wanted Gamel…?
As a comparison:
If I recall correctly, at the time of the Sabathia trade, LaPorta/Gamel were considered to have fairly equal value with there being some discussion as to which player should go to the Indians. Since then, LaPorta has remained a “5 star” prospect and #1 in the Indians organization according to BP (even ahead of Carlos Santana), while Gamel has dropped to a “3 star” prospect who supposedly no team was willing to take this offseason. This is despite the fact that Gamel had a higher wOBA than LaPorta and comparable defense in the major leagues in 2009. Gamel had a much higher BABIP, true, but LaPorta also had the advantage of seeing more playing time and being used exclusively as a starter. Yet LaPorta is apparently still awesome and Gamel is apparently now a middling prospect. What gives?
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
No Anundsen?
Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 10, 2010 12:38 PM CST reply actions
Not really a top flight prospect
He’s getting good results in minor league ball, but his stuff is not great and he works backwards. He has good command of his pitches and solid secondary stuff, but he’s just not the type of player that is ever going to make a top 10 prospect list.
If he by some chance does do that, the Brewer system is in big trouble. For guys that make lists like this, with stuff like his, you at least like his fastball to be low 90s. Anundsen works in the upper 80s most of the time.
He had better velocity in high school
If he gets his velocity back and he doesn’t regress, he could crack the top 10.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Feb 10, 2010 12:54 PM CST up reply actions
They lists him as "the sleeper"
With a blurb about how he could eventually be a back end starter in the majors.
A little higher than “if he ever makes the top 10 the Brewers are in trouble” I guess.
Get a ife broseph
Alright, No Anundsen.
Screw command. Nobody ever got hurt walking batters 4 times per 9 innings…
Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 10, 2010 5:01 PM CST up reply actions
Lorenzo Cain?
can’t believe he doesn’t even get listed?
and folks…i saw Gamel in memphis last year. in one game he coulda easily had 4 errors.
2 were short hops that were scored as singles
Escobar saved him on another…believe the hype!!!
he’s a regular Roberto Duran at 3rd!!!
by Bill From Boytown on Feb 10, 2010 8:12 PM CST reply actions
See, this is what I'm talking about
People see him one time, declare he’s a butcher and there’s nothing he can do to change their minds.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Perhaps...
Yet above you “call B.S.” based on about a dozen games. Of course nobody would advocate evaluating hitting skills on 12 games. Small sample size rules should apply to all, but I do agree with your time-line argument that at least Lawrie does have time on his side. Let’s hope he makes the most of it.
He’s started 24 games at 3B and played 192 innings at the major league level. Clearly that’s not enough to demonstrate his true ability, but it’s far more than enough to see that he clearly isn’t the absolute butcher he’s made out to be. Compare Gamel at 3B last year to Braun at 3B. You could tell Braun was awful within a few innings.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Welll.......
Granted Balls take bad hops and The Infield in Memphis isn’t Milwaukee.
But He had 5 balls hit to him….And he looked terrible on 4 of them?
Sure he could have a bad day…but if you know to look at the angles he takes, the position he’s in, the throwing motion..it’s easy to tell he’ll not play 3rd for long in the show.
Heck….Have you ever scouted?
Go to a mlb tryout when teams have one nearbye.
They have you run the bases, make 5 different throws and field 10 balls.
thats it !!!
I understand that perhaps your’e eye isn’t trained as well as others might be.
Might take you 12 games, 22, or a season to come to the same conclusion ?
But please don’t belittle those that do have the training and ability to evaluate talent that
exceeeds yours.
by Bill From Boytown on Feb 11, 2010 10:19 AM CST up reply actions
I don't think he is.
I think it’s stupid to think that the people putting out these prospect lists honestly witnessed enough baseball to have a well formed, personal opinion of the player. Sure, they’ve seen them play a couple times, but my guess is that between 50-90% of their analysis is based on a priori opinions, ones they’ve heard from other people, pre-dispositions that they had before showing up. I think this number definitely increases as you get deeper and deeper into the minors (which is intuitive). Thinking that these big named guys putting out prospect lists every year honestly go back and reevaluate everyone from scratch is stupid, that’d be a huge amount of work.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Think It Musta Been July
When Was Trevor Down There?
it Was During That Series when Hoffman was on Rehab!!
by Bill From Boytown on Feb 12, 2010 7:15 AM CST up reply actions
That was April, then.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Probably had to be this game, since Gamel didn’t have any other games that looked bad in the play-by-play during that series.
yes
that was the game.
remember because the play were it went off his glove, then escobar got it in the hole and threw the guy out! it was a real gold glove type play be Alcides !!
by Bill From Boytown on Feb 13, 2010 1:49 PM CST up reply actions
"Those that do have the training and ability to evaluate talent"
Like, the guys in the Brewers organization who put Gamel at 3B and continue to play him there? Or do you mean the guys on the internet who publish prospect lists for every system in the major leagues? No offense to prospect lists, I find them as useful and interesting as the next guy, but they aren’t exactly trained professionals when they’re giving their evaluations of individual players.
And Gamel isn’t exactly a mysterious minor league anymore. We’ve all seen him play at the highest level for (defensively) an eighth of a season. Maybe he’s a bad defender, but he absolutely did not look like a guy who couldn’t be a starter at the major league level.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Whats Their Option
Well Lets See…..Melvin had a team that wasn’t performing up to expectations.
He needed to see if Gamel’s Bat could play in the Big leagues.
he couldn’t put Gamel at 1b or LF ?
If Prince wasn’t here, Gamel wouldn’t been playing 3b in the minors either!!
Plus Gamel’s alot more tradeable as a 3b than at 1st or lf….
from what Tom H said….There weren’t many offers.
At 1b or LF…Gamel is Just a Guy!!
by Bill From Boytown on Feb 12, 2010 7:19 AM CST up reply actions
Heckathorn v Kentrail
This is the first time I’ve seen Heckathorn above Kentrail. I know comparing pitchers to hitters is a fruitless endeavor but I don’t even think Heckathorn was the third best player drafted last year (give me D’Vontrey or Hall).
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
Keith Law had Heckathorn 4th, Davis 9th
I agree though, between the pitchers vs. hitters difference and the lack of minor league numbers it doesn’t really mean anything.
Get a ife broseph
Carlos Gomez
One other interesting item is that they posted a top talent age 25 and under list.
The top 5 in that list were Fielder, Gallardo, Escobar, Gomez, Lawrie. So they still consider Gomez at least a 4 star prospect at this point.
Lawrie v Gomez
Really? No offense to Gomez, as I am quite optimistic about his future, moreso than many of my cronies, but not one day a week would I take Gomez over Lawrie. Obscene power potentials from middle infielders don’t come along everyday. I know Chuck has the speed…and then some, and the defense….and then some…., but Lawrie has Cooperstown-type potential.
I do, however, like that our best pitcher is flanked on the list by one of the greatest power hitters of our generation along with a pair of the best young gloves in the game and a mythical power-hitting Norseman, I mean north man.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 55 | .586 | 0 | Won 4 |
|
St. Louis
|
69 | 62 | .526 | 8 | Lost 5 |
|
Houston
|
62 | 71 | .466 | 16 | Won 3 |
|
Milwaukee
|
62 | 71 | .466 | 16 | Lost 3 |
|
Chicago
|
57 | 77 | .425 | 21.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
44 | 89 | .330 | 34 | Lost 1 |
(updated 9.3.2010 at 9:13 AM CDT)
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
