Friday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 12, 2010 9:01 AM CST
in News
87 comments
Some things to read while choosing science.
As you may have noticed in this FanShot, a panel of arbitrators decided in favor of Corey Hart this morning, and he will earn $4.8 million in 2010.
Yesterday, the Sports Agent Blog compared Hart to Hunter Pence. Pence is a superior player to Hart in nearly every way, and signed for $3.5 million this season. The comparison compelled Darren Heitner to say Hart "should be happy that the arbitrators can’t pick below the Brewers’ offer of $4.15 million."
As has been mentioned before, this was Doug Melvin's first arbitration hearing as GM of the Brewers. Given the result, it sounds like he'd be wise to avoid them in the future.
Beyond the Box Score is taking a look at 2010 playoff odds, as determined by various projection systems. PECOTA gives the Brewers a 15% chance at winning the Central and a 19% shot at the playoffs.
Over at FanGraphs, Matthew Carruth has a look at strikeouts, and the pitchers who need more or less pitches to get them. The league average is 4.8 pitches/K, but Trevor Hoffman has needed just 4.57 over the last three seasons, baseball's 16th best average.
Adam McCalvy has a breakdown of possible contract incentives for Jim Edmonds. He could earn as much as $2.6 million this season by becoming a full time player and making 525 plate appearances. He'll start racking up incentives at 200 PAs, triggering another one with every 25 PAs after that.
Good news for fans sick of being harassed by scalpers in the Miller Park parking lots: The bill designed to give the Brewers more leverage against scalpers has made it through committee in the Wisconsin State Senate, and could see a vote from the full body soon.
In the minors:
- Baseball Prospectus has a great Q&A up with Bruce Seid, the Brewers director of amateur scouting, with a lot of insight on the Brewer draft strategy and some of the recent selections. (h/t BF.net)
- At The Hardball Times, Jeff Sackmann has a great look at adjustments that can be made to minor league park factors to account for handedness of hitters and asymmetrical outfields.
- Also at The Hardball Times, Max Marchi finished up his three part series on the best outfield arms in the minors, and listed spring training invitee Trent Oeltjen as the eighth best left fielder.
- You know you're getting close to spring training when: The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers unveiled the second-to-last episode of The Offseason yesterday.
I said I was done talking about the Bud Selig statue and I meant it, but Wisconsin Sports Tap raises a good point: What about a statue of Bob Uecker?
Around baseball:
Angels: Re-signed infielder Robb Quinlan to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed Mike Lamb to a minor league deal.
Mets: Signed lefty Hisanori Takahashi and catcher Shawn Riggans to minor league deals.
Reds: Signed Kip Wells to a minor league deal.
Today's candidate for "most complicated new contract" is Pirates spring training invitee D.J. Carrasco. Assuming Carrasco makes the team, he'll earn incentives based on a point system, with values assigned for appearances, long relief appearances and starts.
And, on the freak injury front: Orioles starting pitcher Brad Bergesen will be behind schedule in spring training after injuring his shoulder throwing for a TV commercial in December.
Yesterday was retirement day for two likely future Hall of Famers, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas. Some notes on them from around the web:
- The B-Ref Blog has several notes on Thomas' career, and credits him with the seventh best season in major league history, by OPS+.
- Craig Mulder, the Baseball Hall of Fame's Communications Director, notes that Glavine will be eligible for the Hall for the first time in 2014, alongside former Braves teammate Greg Maddux, Thomas, Mike Mussina and Jeff Kent.
- A's beat reporter Jane Lee remembers "watching a gorilla dressed in lingerie come out during BP and dance with Thomas on his 40th birthday."
Happy birthday today to 2009 Hunstville Star and Nashville Sound Adam Stern, who turns 30.
This is my last Mug before Valentine's Day, so it's my last chance to mention this, which I still think is one of my better rants.
Oh, and Nutzy the Flying Squirrel just moved to the top of my "Mascots I don't want to meet in a dark alley" list.
Drink up.
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This was Hunter Pence's first arbitration year
As such, in arbitration his salary would be compared to what first year arb players got last year. Which is to say his 2010 salary should be compared to Corey Hart’s 2009 salary (and he did beat that), and Corey Hart’s 2010 salary has nothing to do with Hunter Pence’s 2010 salary.
If someone is eager to compare Hart’s demands to another player’s salary, find a player like him who had his second arbitration last offseason.
You beat me to it.
The argument has little to no merit because of this.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Huh
I guess I assumed they’d know that. My bad.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Yes -- In fact I think the CBA actually spells out, that players are to be compared to players in similar "classes"
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Feb 12, 2010 9:53 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, it's "annual service group"
Looking at it again, the actual language doesn’t preclude comparing to players with less service time:
The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player’s annual service group. This shall not limit the ability of a Player or his representative, because of special accomplishment, to argue the equal relevance of salaries of Players without regard to service, and the arbitration panel shall give whatever weight to such argument as is deemed appropriate.
So I guess I’m wrong with my absolute no above.
I suppose you could argue Hart should be compared to Pence, who can’t be compared to anyone with more service time than Hart. But that sounds weird .
And really, the arbitors have to look at the salaries of all comparable players, not just one or two examples.
Not to keep talking to myself, but I don't think I'm wrong
I think it would be hard to convince anyone a player in his first arbitration is comparable to a player past that point when it comes to salary (how could you reasonably compare a first time arby to a guy paid the minimum?), and I don’t think that’s the idea.
When I read a symopsis of the arb process recently
I sounded like you could compare one year forward, but never backwards.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Feb 12, 2010 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
You are making sense.
I think you can compare Pence to Hart insofar as looking at how salaries increase, but I don’t think you can go and look at Pence from Hart’s angle.
The Arbynators also look at things like ticket sales, and leadership, etc… It could be argued that Pence is the big tamale in Houston, whereas Hart is definitely way behind guys like Prince and Braun.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Feb 12, 2010 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
The comments section on that post does not make the author look very knowledgeable about how arbitration works
I guess you could say the same about stuff I’ve posted, but it just seems like he has his own idea of how it works or how it should work and skimmed over the rules that don’t confirm that.
You mean like Jeff Francoeur
Who is a worse player than Hart and will make $5 mil this year? Or Andre Ethier, who is better than Hart and will make $6 mil, with another $9.25 guaranteed next year?
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Feb 12, 2010 9:45 AM CST up reply actions
This may be my only opportunity to ever say this, so I'm taking it
But I believe you are wrong about one thing. Players with less than 4 years service time can use players one year ahead of them as comps, so Hart’s 2010 salary(or exchanged numbers) could be used to justify Pence’s 2010 salary. Making this ‘logic’ not just bad, but kinda circular too.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Feb 12, 2010 9:56 AM CST up reply actions
K-Y Intense. Scientifically proven to increase female satisfaction.
Since when do scientists care about female satisfaction?
I sort of like the purple background, but I kinda hope these ads go away after Valentine’s Day.
Better than that virtual sax guy though.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Feb 12, 2010 9:51 AM CST reply actions
That sounds like the greatest science lab ever.
I’m hoping these ads work out, so each week can have a KY Friday. It’s a good way to slide into the weekend.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 12, 2010 9:56 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Maybe Trojan can get involved, too.
Then we could channel Ueck in Major League II and have a weekly “Trojan-ENZ Boner of the Week Award” post.
I dunno...
The greatest science lab IMO would clearly focus on male satisfaction and bacon.
Thinking this through…. I am pretty sure though, I can freak out my wife’s shit by leaving BCB-KY displayed on my laptop prominently —
If she sees the KY ad, I am going to guess that she will very eagerly allow me to change our reservations from stupid PF Chang’s to Texas Roadhouse, and instead of going to the theatre to see the stupid movie she picked out, I will be in my comfy chair in a steak-induced coma with Halloween II on the TV. Everyone wins.
Thank you KY!
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Feb 12, 2010 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
Scientists are hard at work designing a moonbounce made of bacon.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
by Yar Nivek on Feb 12, 2010 10:25 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not a relationship effort, but this might be my best work:
A few years ago, I made the case that Valentine’s Day is an arbitrary holiday that can be celebrated anytime.
So, Mrs. Snow and I have it on January 14 most years. Flowers are cheaper, and you can get a table at a restaurant at a decent hour without calling six weeks in advance.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 12, 2010 12:13 PM CST up reply actions
How is this not rec'd yet?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Boy, I sure don't like Corey Hart
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 12, 2010 10:28 AM CST reply actions
I'm not sure we have anyone better lined up.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Feb 12, 2010 10:30 AM CST up reply actions
What about Gerut?
Not saying he’s going to be an allstar, but he seemed to show he can atleast put up Harts numbers…
For 2.8 million less.
I'll be the second one to bring him up today
Because i’m missing Gabe Gross again.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 12, 2010 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
For the pansy-christian-nonsense batting music, right?
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Gerut+Gomez+Edmonds?
That sounds like garbage time to me….
At least Hart has some sort of reason for optimism.
I certainly would concede that Gerut or Edmonds may be better than Hart this year.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Feb 12, 2010 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
Or they might not be.
Maybe Jon Hart has a great year.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
If he can walk more yes..
But he can’t seem to stop swinging at junk. After two years you’d think he’d “figure it out”. I guess you could say that I see his ceiling not being as high as we thought.
If he walks a ton in ST, then maybe I’ll have some optimism. But nothing really indicates that he’s going to figure it out all of a sudden.
What about Misty Mays husband? Having her hang around the ball park wouldn’t be bad ;)
totally agree
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Feb 12, 2010 10:59 AM CST up reply actions
Here is our catcher
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Feb 12, 2010 11:01 AM CST up reply actions
I vote for the one tethered to Misty May
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Feb 12, 2010 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
Peace out.
My work here is done, have a nice weekend
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Feb 12, 2010 11:05 AM CST up reply actions
if he walks a ton in spring training, the pitchers are probably doing it wrong.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Depends on what you consider Hart's numbers to be.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Do we, as a community, need to think positive about Hart?
It’s going to get a bit old for us to be so consistently pessimistic.
Through April 30th last year, Hart wasn’t chasing those outside pitches and had racked up 13 walks in 22 games and an .873 OPS. His OPS didn’t drop below .800 until May 9. We know he can be a really good hitter so there’s at least some basis for being optimistic this season.
by ecocd on Feb 12, 2010 10:36 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I think consistently pessimistic is how most people here roll.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Fair and not fair
I think the community is optimistic on the whole. I think we tend to choose deserving targets for our animosity with the likes of Suppan, Hall and a free-swinging Hart. I know I was way too hard on Melvin for not offering arbitration to Lopez which ultimately wasn’t warranted. Do you have some other examples of undeserved animosity, though? Not a whole lot spring to my mind.
Possibly...
… but then when those targets perform well, no one seems to like to give them any credit…
idk, doesn’t really bother me
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Before the appendix thing, he was really coming on, too
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
appendix juicing?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Sveum seemed to do Counsell wonders at the plate...
so maybe if he can devote more of his time with Hart, we’ll see some improvement throughout the season… and not just the first couple months.
He was still around his 2007 numbers for at least the first half of 2008 before falling off a cliff after the All-Star Break and into 2009. Whether that’s because pitchers suddenly figured him out or because he was injured/worn down I don’t know.
All the projection systems have him being an $8.4 million+ player next season though. At $4.8 that’s not tremendous value for a smaller payroll like the Brewers, but I’d take those numbers. It certainly wouldn’t make him overpaid.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I'm not sure if using the projection systems to determine salary is that accurate.
Aren’t most players considered “underpaid” if using those same projection systems?
They're not meant to determine salary
The $8.4 million+ figure is just based on the (roughly estimated) market value for a win above replacement. Most teams can’t afford to pay market value for wins though, especially from players still in arbitration years.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Is that the old $/win, or the updated figures?
Because FanGraphs estimated it at roughly $3.55 million/win this offseason.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
I’m just going off the WAR/Value CHONE projection listed on Fangraphs. Marcel and Bill James aren’t listed but their offensive projections for Hart are equal to or better than CHONE (based on wRC/wRC+).
In any event, they project him to improve next season and be more than “worth” his contract, though that doesn’t he isn’t overpaid.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
"doesn't mean" rather...
Also, I should add that the CHONE figure is based on a rather pessimistic playing time projection of 450 PA. Marcel is about the same and they might be influenced by the time Hart missed in ‘09, but since that was a kind of freak injury (appendectomy) I think Bill James’ 533 project PA is more accurate. That would up the WAR/$ figure, of course.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
When told there was some fan backlash over his big raise from a $3.25 million salary after an off year, Hart said, "That’s just one of those things you have to deal with. I didn’t have a good year last year. I’m sure they don’t think I deserved a big raise.
“I’ve just got to win them back over. I always play hard. I’ll try to put up good numbers and get them back on my side.”
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
"It's a business, this is how it works, get over it"?
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
He hasn't been that sharp in the past
There are a lot of things he could’ve said, but instead chose the right words to say. I’m pleased.
Who cares?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I mean who cares that he might have rehearsed an answer
I’m sure every athlete has answers prepared for certain lines of questioning. Don’t they go through a seminar on dealing with the media before the season starts? I believe the NFL does some sort of rookie seminar, I’m assuming MLB has a variation of this.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Can someone read McCalvy's post here and tell me what he's trying to say?
http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/02/the_fielder_factor.html
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
Does he really think Fielder will file a lower number since the Brewers "aren't afraid of a hearing"?
something tells me that won’t happen.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
It might...
Previously, Boras/Fielder might have thought that DM wasn’t willing to go to arbitration, which would mean that they could throw whatever astronomical number at the Brewers and plan on meeting halfway.
Now that DM has shown that he’s willing to go to arbitration, whatever asking price they throw out has to be relatively reasonable or risk losing in arbitration.
by sjlee on Feb 12, 2010 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Question: Is this interesting?
Lincecum 40-17, 153 ERA+; Oswalt 43-17 151 ERA+ Oswalt $3.25M in 03 Lincecum $8M in ’10
From some tweet I forgot to favorite.
Follow: @mykenk. Read thoughts: http://mhenk.blogspot.com.
I saw that yesterday on Baseball Tonight
Forgetting inflation and the 2 cy youngs, its a pretty good comparison.
Anyone else not seeing the fan posts
Mine have disappeared.
Also, Nutzy is scary, but I’m not sure how he compares to Nightmare Ant
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB is all kinds of screwed up on my computer, too.
The stories are halfway down the page, and the FanPosts are all the way at the bottom. I blame Nightmare Ant.
Tech team is working on a fix
Looks fine on my PC now, so I’m hoping it’s resolved.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 12, 2010 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
alright it's fixed
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Quite the quote from Doug:
“You know going in that somebody has to win and somebody has to lose. I guess Corey is a little better player than what the stats from last year say. We don’t have any second thought about the figure we filed. You file a figure and go with it.”
I’m not sure that qualifies as even a backhanded compliment …
I think the "I guess" pretty much sums it up.
Unless Hart shows some improvement over the last couple years, something tells me that the Brewers are going to start looking for a replacement RF.
I'm still suspicous of the "aggressive scalpers" claim
Mostly because the main complaint, them boarding tour buses, seems nonsensical to me. How many groups really come to games without tickets? I bet it’s damn near none, meaning there’s no point in scalpers even trying to sell them tickets.
Everytime I’ve dealt with a “scalper”, it’s been buying tickets below face value. Seems like this is a money grab for the club.
by The Left Button on Feb 12, 2010 1:33 PM CST reply actions
How many groups really come to games without tickets? I bet it’s damn near none, meaning there’s no point in scalpers even trying to sell them tickets.
Exactly. That is why they are trying to put them in a specific area. They are bothering tour buses and other people going to the game who already have tickets to the point that those people complained to the team.
They aren’t kicking them out, just getting them away from paying customers. I don’t see how that is a money grab for the team.
Get a ife broseph
Frank & Tom
Past rookies and future HOFers:
I get the impression they both would prefer to keep playing, but it’s probably best that they don’t. Neither one has had a season worthy of their reputation since 2000 – the last year FT batted .300 and TG won 20.
Both had some very good seasons after 2000...
Thomas hit 42 HRs in 2003 and 39 HRs in 2006, while Glavine had a sub-3 ERA in 2002.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
57 | 46 | .553 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
56 | 46 | .549 | 0.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
48 | 55 | .466 | 9 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
46 | 56 | .450 | 10.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
42 | 59 | .415 | 14 | Won 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
36 | 65 | .356 | 20 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.30.2010 at 4:51 AM CDT)
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
