Division Rival X Factors - Chicago Cubs

by backtocali on Feb 12, 2010 2:24 PM CST

In the first installment of this series we learned that BCB readers feel that for the Cardinals to remain division champions and compete at the top levels of the division in 2010, Chris Carpenter needs to stay healthy.

This week we'll take a look at the Cubs.

The Cubs lost the division last year by 8 games to the Cardinals and were out of the Wild Card by 9 games ending their 2 year run as division champs/playoff participants. The Cubs had a 17 WAR drop on the offensive side of things due in large part to injuries and drops in production from guys like Alfonso Soriano, Geovanny Soto; the loss of Mark DeRosa, and the addition of clubhouse cancer, Milton Bradley all contributed to their slide as well.

They had great years from Derrek Lee, very good production from Aramis Ramirez when he was in the lineup, and they had solid pitching performances from the starting rotation. For 2010 a lot of prognosticators see the Cubs having another down year and very close W/L wise compared with the Brewers (high 70's/low 80's). They lost a starting pitcher that they didnt really replace in Rich Harden, they dumped Bradley off on the Mariners, and Soriano, Lee and Ramirez are all a year older.

What do you think is the main factor in bringing the Cubs back to the playoffs, or at least contending in 2010?

1) Healthy years from Ramirez, Soriano, and Ted Lilly

2) A repeat performance by Randy Wells in the starting rotation

3) Geovanny Soto returning to his rookie form

4) Halfway decent production from 2B and CF as well as the bullpen

What does everyone, objectively, think about the Cubs '10 chances?

Tweet Comment 30 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Lot needs to go right

But, like everyone in the division, its going to be a pretty weak division.

If they can stay healthy they might have a shot, if the pitching remains solid. Last year Ramirez was on pace for a 5 WAR year, thats up to 85 wins. If Soriano returns to a somewhat healthy and productive state thats another 3 wins up to 88 (he was at -.7 last year). And if Soto can get back at least half way to where he was in 08 thats another win or so.

by backtocali on Feb 12, 2010 2:32 PM CST reply actions

5 WAR over his actual WAR from 2009?

If you’re not doing deltaWAR, you’re projecting his WAR to count double or something…

by PagsBrewCrew on Feb 12, 2010 3:37 PM CST up reply actions

No

He had 2.5 in 84 games, over a whole season thats almost 5. So I’m saying that if he can maintain that pace, thats 2 extra wins over last years team, if healthy full season.

by backtocali on Feb 12, 2010 3:48 PM CST up reply actions

That's if

Ryan Braun doesn’t hit a ball so hard it destroys Ramirez’s arm again

by Brewers on Feb 12, 2010 5:43 PM CST up reply actions

but if he already HAD 2.5 in 2009

then that’s only a 2.5WAR in having 2010 Ramirez over 2009 Ramirez. The base calculations I assume for wins were based on his 2009 stats for the number of games he played in 2009?

That’s like bringing a millionare’s networth up to 2M. Even though he has 2M now, you only added 1M.

by PagsBrewCrew on Feb 12, 2010 8:58 PM CST up reply actions

Health was the problem last year

They’ve got an aging roster that they need to keep healthy if they want to compete.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Feb 12, 2010 2:39 PM CST reply actions

Yup

I see this as a relatively simple one: Cubs defy age, stay amazingly healthy and they’re a down-to-the-wire playoff contender.

They don’t stay healthy, they’re done.

by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 12, 2010 8:40 PM CST up reply actions

Soriano and Marmol

The Cubs must have a healthy Soriano. Even in the injury-plagued years of 2007 and 2008, Soriano was among the team leaders in home runs. Carlos Marmol has got to have good control as the Cubs closer. It’s because Marmol took so long to discover his control last season that Kevin Gregg was the closer for most of 2009. I see the Cubs as an 81-81 team. The offense is too suspect, and the bullpen is too shaky.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Feb 12, 2010 3:41 PM CST reply actions

No..

.. they need a healthy Soriano, AND a time machine.

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 12, 2010 7:23 PM CST up reply actions

Factor 5)

The stopage of being hated by God

How far will this one fly?

by Rendezvous on Feb 12, 2010 4:47 PM CST reply actions

don't give them ammo

Cubs fans have enough excuses.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Feb 12, 2010 4:51 PM CST up reply actions

I'm reserving judgment until Ryan Dempster issues another spring training prediction

by TheJay on Feb 12, 2010 9:39 PM CST reply actions

Improved offense

Better years from Soriano, Soto, and a healthy Ramirez

"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC

by BrewHaHeather on Feb 12, 2010 9:50 PM CST reply actions

They need to

hire Will Ferrell to do a Harry Caray impression the whole season.

“Hey. If you were made out of hot dog would you eat yourself?”

"I like Suppan"
- Noah J. on 12/22/09

by molitorfan on Feb 13, 2010 8:28 AM CST reply actions

That would be awesome

But the original was pretty much irreplacable. I probably saw a game a year at Wrigley until I was in my teens, and Caray singing Take Me Out To The Ballgame was one of the most fun parts of those days.

by backtocali on Feb 13, 2010 3:02 PM CST up reply actions

I thought the Cubs

lost some starting pitching. Is that not right?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 13, 2010 12:44 PM CST reply actions

Harden

But he didnt help too much last year. They actually had 4 pitchers with 3+ WAR. They will suffer a little with Lilly starting the season on the DL, but if Marmol does a decent job as closer, as someone here suggested, and they get decent health from Soriano, they probably wont be as bad as they were last year, or are projected to be this year.

by backtocali on Feb 13, 2010 3:01 PM CST up reply actions

They lost Rich Harden (who even in a down year was worth 1.8 WAR) and are replacing him with probably Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva. That is a loss.

Not to mention Lilly/Dempster/Wells were probably all pitching above their true talent levels and Zambrano seemingly continues to fade.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Feb 13, 2010 5:04 PM CST up reply actions

Ryan Braun does love some Tom Gorzalanny

OPPOSING PITCHER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Tom Gorzelanny 19 9 1 0 3 9 6 2 .474 .600 1.000 1.600

by BrewCrewBrian on Feb 15, 2010 8:53 AM CST up reply actions

Even with spelling and spacing issues, Brauny still loves it.

by BrewCrewBrian on Feb 15, 2010 8:55 AM CST up reply actions

Silva

Hasn’t he been pitching below replacement for a few years running now, including last year when he had an ERA ABOVE 8?

If you give him the same amount of starts as Harden had last year, that’s probably at least a 2 loss swing, maybe even 3. I hope he pitches a full season’s worth of starts and makes it 4 or 5!

by KegelExercise on Feb 13, 2010 7:53 PM CST reply actions

(wishful thinking, I know even the Cubs don’t suck enough to keep a -3 WAR player in the rotation all season!)

by KegelExercise on Feb 13, 2010 7:56 PM CST up reply actions

I hope he sticks around long enough

to go up against Suppan. That would be entertaining.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 23, 2010 10:07 PM CST up reply actions

Chacon-Weaver 2009?

by TheJay on Feb 24, 2010 5:28 AM CST up reply actions

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 22, 2010 7:22 PM CST reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Cincinnati Red Reporter	25	19	.568	0	Won 6
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	25	20	.555	0.5	Lost 1
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	21	23	.477	4	Won 3
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	20	24	.454	5	Lost 2
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	18	26	.409	7	Won 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	29	.340	10	Lost 9