Thursday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 18, 2010 8:29 AM CST
in News
63 comments
Some things to read while speeding up the process.
This could be interesting: Adam McCalvy talked to Ken Macha yesterday, and the Brewer manager told him he's considering batting the pitcher eighth this season, with either Alcides Escobar or Carlos Gomez in the ninth spot and Casey McGehee batting #2. I think that lineup looks pretty good, but it would be heavily reliant on Corey Hart's ability to protect Prince Fielder in the lineup.
Speaking of Hart, Miller Park Drunk thinks fans are being too hard on him over his recent arbitration victory.
While pitchers and catchers aren't required to report to spring training until Saturday, Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren is already there and took a moment to chat with Right Field Bleachers about his offseason, scouting reports and singing on stage with Garth Brooks.
Don Money's offseason wasn't quite as exciting, but his six questions with Brewers.com is still worth reading.
How close was Randy Wolf to not being a Brewer? Dodgers GM Ned Colletti thinks Wolf would have accepted arbitration if the team had offered it, which is why they didn't offer. Based on Wolf's disappointment regarding leaving LA, I'm inclined to agree.
The possibility of trading Prince Fielder became a hot topic once again in the comments of yesterday's Mug. If you still want to discuss it, Wezen-ball has a take you should read discussing the various types of Brewer fans and their reaction to a potential deal.
Jayson Stark of ESPN has his spring training preview up, and lists the Brewers as the NL's third most improved team. He also has notes on the Brewers' free agent spending, Jim Edmonds and Felipe Lopez.
In the minors: Minor League Baseball Prospects has their list of the top 40 Brewer prospects: They're very high on Kentrail Davis (third) and low on Zach Braddock (25th).
The Nationals have the only notes in today's transaction log:
Nationals: Won their arbitration case with Brian Bruney, who will earn $1.5 million in 2010, and signed Ron Villone to a minor league deal.
As pitchers and catchers begin to report, we're getting our first reported injuries:
- Giants infielder Travis Ishikawa has torn ligaments in his foot from slipping on a staircase several weeks ago.
- Kelvim Escobar, who has pitched five major league innings over the last two seasons, is complaining of a sore shoulder in Mets camp.
Elsewhere in spring training, Big League Stew has a collection of pictures that will make you feel warmer.
David Weathers is entering his 20th major league season and has pitched for nine major league teams, including appearing in over 100 games for four different teams. But did you know he's also the last active player from the 1992 World Series Champion Toronto Blue Jays?
For the first time today, I'm comfortable calling the proposed Cactus League ticket surcharge idea "dead." Commissioner Bud Selig spoke out in opposition of the plan yesterday, and it's hard to believe any legislation to raise funds for a spring training park would go forward without his approval (FanShot).
Speaking of the Cubs, Wisconsin Sports Tap previewed them as part of their week long tour of the NL Central. There are a lot of reasons not to be optimistic about their chances.
Yesterday I posted a Create-Your-Own Spring Training story, but today I'm realizing I forgot one element: No boilerplate spring training story is complete without a mention of the author's favorite spring training restaurant. Over the coming month you'll hear dozens of testimonials from beat writers and reporters across Arizona and Florida, and Walkoff Walk has a way for you to cash in on them.
Happy birthday today to 2004-2006 Brewer Chad Moeller, who turns 35.
Don't forget to sign up to win one of ten WhatifSports Gift Certificates in yesterday's Brewer Advent Calendar.
That's all I have for you today, unless you wanted to read about the plight of college basketball officiating.
Drink up.
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Woo-hoo
Another half-assed attempt to implement a cutting edge strategery doomed to failure because of the half-assery.
If you are going to bat the pitcher eighth, Fielder has to bat in the three spot. McGehee hits four with Hart hitting five, so you keep Fielder away from the pitchers spot. The goal of this high-falluting strategery cooked up in some mom’s basement is not to have ‘two leadoff hitters’ but so Braun and Fielder get more ABs.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
Productive at bats?
I know we beat this to death, but to say Fielder needs to bat 3rd and Braun 4th means they’ll get a handful more at-bats, but those handful of at-bats won’t be as productive as evidenced by the experiments last year. Fielder and Braun are one of the very great many exceptions to the rule where their position in the lineup has a real effect on their production.
Given that Gomez may not have a substantially better season at the plate than our pitchers, the swap may not make much of a difference, overall.
If nothing else, I’m a big fan of having managers try something new (for them) when there are stats to back up the thought of challenging tradition.
I think the point is batting Braun 2nd, Fielder 3rd.
Bumping them both up in the lineup would get them a handful more PAs over the course of the season.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
not only would they be 2nd and 3rd in the lineup
but they’d also be 11th and 12th
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Still, though
If you bat the pitcher 8th and change nothing else, you still increase the number of runs scored, at least according to Tom Tango. Yes, you’d take better advantage of it with Braun 2nd, Fielder 3rd, but even with everything else the same, it’s still an improvement to bat the pitcher 8th.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Plugging in CHONE OBP/SLG projections, essentially all of the highest run-producing lineups have Weeks first, Fielder second, someone else third, and Braun usually fourth (based on that Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool, though I don’t know how accurate that is). If I were a manager I would try something weird like that for a little while just to see how it went.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Yeah, you never want the best hitter third
I’d always hit Fielder 2, Braun 4. Maybe McGehee 3.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
This is where I have a problem with it.
I understand why that works in computer simulations, and I get the logic behind doing it in some practical situations.
With that said, the difference in productivity between the 2, 3 and 4 spots in that lineup would be dramatic. Unless McGehee continues to hit like he did in 2009 (and perhaps even if he does), the correct response to that lineup would be to walk the #2 hitter in virtually all 2 out situations.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 18, 2010 11:56 AM CST up reply actions
From what I understand
and I know the Book goes into more depth about this (when I get home I might look it up and see if I can get more specific), but if I remember correctly, unless one of the players involved is early 2000s Barry Bonds, there’s virtually no situation where it’s the correct move to intentionally walk a hitter (at least in terms of run expectancy; there may be some situations where it’s the right move in terms of win expectancy).
That said, it’s possible opposing managers would do it more than we’d like, but they’d be exercising poor strategy.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Wezen
Is that a Brewer blog?
I suppose I would put myself in the shoes of the guy sitting in the upper deck (except for my money sitting in your couch at home is a better view than the upper deck). Keep the rally going I say.
Milwaukee based, though
So somewhat Brewer-centric.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Optimal batting order
Is there a calculator somewhere for an optimal batting order? If my memory is right, having Braun bat 2nd would be more ideal. Maybe something like this?
Weeks
Braun
Fielder
McGehee/Gamel
Hart
Zaun
Gomez
Pitcher
Escobar
That lineup would be fun to watch.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Now that I think about it....
If McGamel platoon or even if Gamel gets a decent amount of at at bats, it might be better to put Hart in the #4 spot so that the lefties would be split. The problem with that is Gamel/Zaun would then be back to back. lefties.
by grant76 on Feb 18, 2010 10:19 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
looks to be left-biased though
better OPS by .225
Split 5 G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
vs LHP as RH 28 54 46 10 1 0 0 1 0 0 8 7 .217 .333 .239 .572 11 1 0 0 0 0 1 .256 54 53
vs RHP as LH 87 242 216 58 16 0 8 26 0 0 23 41 .269 .347 .454 .801 98 3 3 0 0 0 0 .299 110 106
by PagsBrewCrew on Feb 18, 2010 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
That appears to only take OBP and SLG into consideration.
It likes Fielder/Braun in the top 2 spots and Weeks at 4, McGehee at 5, and Zaun at 6. They are all over the place with 3 and 7 but likes the pitcher followed by Gomez for 8/9.
Based on all of that it looks like the ideal would be
Braun
Fielder
Hart
Weeks
McGehee
Zaun
Escobar
Pitcher
Gomez
http://www.brewcrewball.com/2009/2/14/759668/lineup-construction
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Lineup I favor
Escober
Weeks
Braun
Fielder
McGhee
Hart
Zaun
pitcher
Gomez
Gomez has speed to really lay down bunts to get on in front of everyone at the top. I with Hart and McGhee and Zaun, you have plenty of buffer between Fielder and pitcher. Escobar is just as fast as weeks, but with Week’s power it makes sense to have him 2nd.
I'd go with
R Weeks – 2B (yeah, yeah…not really a good leadoff hitter traditionally, but hopefully he’ll do as well in 10 as started in 09)
R Escobar – SS he should have a decent OBP, but I don’t think he’s ready for leadoff. Has enough speed to avoid the DP.
R Braun LF
L Fielder 1B – I’d flip Braun/Fielder, but they’ve previously expressed preference for this order
R McGehee 3B – best protection at present for Fielder
S/L Zaun C – his OBP is higher than Hart’s. See also Hart:P
R Gomez CF – weakest bat in the bunch, but might find a way to get on base with Sveum’s help.
R Hart RF- his SLG over the last few seasons is higher than Zaun, as was his HR/PA last season. Although if there’s any sign of him continuing to drop in OPS and SLG, I’d flip them. Basically I want the basepaths clear as often as possible before the pitcher is up donating an out.
P – I’m not sold on pitcher hitting 8th. It’s just an out earlier
On gamel days (assuming he and mcgehee both make the team), have the leftie gamel bat 2nd, otherwise you’re just crying LOOGY starting with fielder. On those days I’d get all crazy and drop weeks to the 5 hole and bump escobar up to leadoff.
by PagsBrewCrew on Feb 18, 2010 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
I like putting Esky second, because he can help move Weeks over with his bunting
Weeks on second with 1 out and Braun-Fielder coming up…
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I don't like Escobar #2, because speed is such a huge part of his game.
Batting him in front of Fielder/Braun would handicap his ability to steal bases.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 18, 2010 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
Braun had 15,14 and 20 SBs the last 3 years
So I don’t think it would be that large of a handicap.
For a non-traditional way to look at it Braun and Fielder combined for 74 doubles last year. I am willing to bet Escobar would have scored from first on at least 73 of them. McGehee, not so much. It was retarded and mocked because Yost explained it so poorly, but there is some validity to ‘run scorer’ label. If you can use the speed in your lineups to ‘steal’ home on a double or third on a single from 1B you are doing the same thing as a traditional steal of 2B, but with a slightly higher probability of success. For this to work we only need a non-traditional manager and a crazy man like Sveum coaching 3B.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Feb 18, 2010 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
Using traditional lineup construction (other than P 8th) I like this:
Escobar
McGehee/Gamel
Braun
Fielder
Weeks
Hart
Zaun
P
Gomez
I’ve always wanted to see Ricky hit in the middle of the order. It breaks up the lefties and gives McGehee and Gamel pitches to hit in front of Braun and Prince.
by Brew Believer on Feb 18, 2010 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
That's an interesting one
And having more than one everyday player who’s fleet of foot makes it possible.
Problem is, Escobar and Gomez struggle at getting on base.
If Escobar can show some patience at the plate, he could leadoff and move Weeks to 5th, as Brew Believer points out. That would be ideal for me.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
no matter what platitudes macha will talk up in the offseason
there’s no chance that once the season starts he’ll have the team steal or hit-and-run more than a handful of times. Therefore speed (other than getting on base or at defense) doesn’t matter.
by PagsBrewCrew on Feb 18, 2010 2:03 PM CST up reply actions
Just wait, they'll be running.
Especially the bottom of the order.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Where's Jeff to tell us what his lineup would be? :)
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
that's easy
8 LaPortas and a Korean.
Korea-jacked!
by PagsBrewCrew on Feb 18, 2010 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
In my opinon
It is impossible to protect players like Prince, Pujols, and A-Rod in a lineup. Players of this caliber produce in any lineup. The only way to protect them is to fill up the bases ahead of them so there’s nowhere to put them. Pujols should be batting 4th behind Holliday, and the three top OB% should hit ahead of Prince.
ehhhhh
It’s best not to overthink batting lineups. Yes, Pujols is a great hitter, but that doesn’t mean your biggest fear is him getting intentionally walked all the time, especially because putting him on base helps you more than it hurts you. Furthermore, the way you laid the strategy out, it would really only work when the first three guys load the bases; say you have three guys each with a .360 OBP (which would be three very good on base guys), the probability they each get on base is .360^3, or only 4.7%, and that’s not even the percentage of the time they load the bases, ‘cause it includes the times they hit themselves in. In other words, what I’m trying to say is that what you’d lose in fewer plate appearance by bumping Pujols (or whatever elite hitter you want to use as an example) down in the order totally overwhelms whatever gains you’d see from reducing the chance of an IBB.
That said, The Book guys have of course totally gone way in depth into batting orders; their findings are essentially: bat your three best hitters 1st, 2nd, and 4th, bat your pitcher 8th, and try to split up lefties.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Hmm
I guess he loses 18 plate appearances over a season batting 4th instead of 3rd, which isn’t good, but he gets Holliday’s OB% ahead of him in the lineup. I wouldn’t think twice about it – Pujols goes 4th. There’s a reason why the best hitter on the planet has never led the league in RBIs – he bats third.
Yeah, but
Pujols has led the league in runs scored 4 times
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
The question is
Would you rather have someone on base 44% of the time when Holliday hits, or have 1.101 OPS at the plate when Holliday is on base? Dunno.
No offense to Mark Willinsky
But if Minor League Baseball Prespects cosiders him a better prospect than Zach Braddock, I’m not going to put much stock in their list
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
Possible
That he uses different methodology. Davis has big time upside, where as Braddock has had injury issues and command problems.
Personally I like Davis a lot, but I’d like to see what he can do. He has the body type and tools to become a very good player/prospect. Pitchers with injury histories who cant command the fastball, no matter how hard they throw it, arent held in such high regard in my book.
I'm excited about Davis too
But putting a low first round pick who hasn’t played a professional game yet ahead of guys like Gamel and Lucroy is silly.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 18, 2010 12:00 PM CST up reply actions
What's the goal in ranking prospects?
Is it estimated future production? You could make a case for being more optimistic about a Davis is you think you have a good feeling on the ceiling of more experienced players.
Let’s say you subjectively estimating that Mr. yorcuL has an 85% to cap out at a career 90 OPS+ or 12 WAR or whatever while projecting Mr. sivaD to have a 40% chance at 110 OPS and +20 WAR. You could then make the case that sivaD is a brighter prospect than yorcuL.
I completely agree with you, by the way, but there’s a case to be made for claiming A-ball players are better prospects than a AAA with major league service time.
Agreed
And I’d say we’re starting to inch up to the point where projections and probabilities can be used to assign an expected dollar figure to just about any player, regardless of the somewhat apples-to-oranges nature of comparing a draft pick to a possible 2010 contributor.
I understand a somewhat significant difference in opinion over LuCroy’s ceiling, but I sincerely doubt the Brewers would trade him for another Kentrail Davis, given the opportunity.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 18, 2010 12:46 PM CST up reply actions
But Mark Willinsky, a top prospect?
Or Joe Koshansky?
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Feb 18, 2010 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
Well
It’s true he only walked 7 in 40 innings last year, but that’s also only 40 innings of sample size.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 18, 2010 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
Comparatively I should say
every time he jumps a level his numbers go way up, which is not surprising. But I dont think his command is as good as the numbers he put up at Brevard Co last year. In a small sample size, as noted below, he had a big jump in HR allowed.
Id assume the plan is for him to repeat AA and move to AAA at some point this summer.
And Im not talking walks, or control, I mean command…throwing it where he wants it to go…
Chad Moeller
Wasn’t Chad Moeller the last Brewer to hit for the cycle? I beleive he is, which, considering he was a slow catcher who would barely hit a lick, is both a rather remarkable accomplishment and a pretty good trivia question.
Yep.
I think he had a bad cold when he did it as well.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Feb 18, 2010 1:07 PM CST up reply actions
We have a winner
Not baseball related at all, but I dare you to top this TWSS
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Feb 18, 2010 2:46 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
that kid is a hero
Q: Did you ever scout Corey Hart? What seems to be holding him back from being a good hitter for AVG?
A: The slider away. And that facial hair.
-Keith Law ESPN chat 2/11/10
the best promotion ever
was Dale Sveum to interim manager because it meant that Nascar Nedly was canned.
Q: Did you ever scout Corey Hart? What seems to be holding him back from being a good hitter for AVG?
A: The slider away. And that facial hair.
-Keith Law ESPN chat 2/11/10
Rockies offer a minor league deal to Gagne
Can’t wait until the Brewers play in Denver. Should be fun to watch.
There was actually an interview with him on this site a week or two ago.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Feb 19, 2010 11:49 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
57 | 46 | .553 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
56 | 46 | .549 | 0.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
48 | 55 | .466 | 9 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
46 | 56 | .450 | 10.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
42 | 59 | .415 | 14 | Won 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
36 | 65 | .356 | 20 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.30.2010 at 4:51 AM CDT)
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