BCB Community Projections: Catchers
I am back like I forgot something, here to guide you through the community projections for the second consecutive year. Things will be a bit more relaxed this year, there is no major Beyond the Boxscore WAR project as the background for the projections. I'll still try to find out what the team projected win total looks like when we're all done, and we will take a shot at projecting playing time as a percentage, to get a pretty accurate picture of what the team looks like going into the year. It's not just a projection, it's a talent evaluation, because it is the best guess as to how good each player actually is.
So today we start with the catchers. The backup spot is a big mess right now. George Kotorras and Matt Treanor will look to win the backup spot, and Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy are also in the mix. There's no telling if the Brewers would send Lucroy back to AA, or demote Salome to that level, or have them split time at AAA, or have one of them serve as the backup catcher in the majors, or trade one of them. So with that in mind I think we will keep this one basic and just have everyone project a line for GREGG ZAUN, and his percentage of the share of total playing time at catcher. That amounts to about 620 total plate appearances for the catchers.
So here's your critical information about Zaun. He's a 39 year-old catcher. ZiPS has him at .243/.345/.373, and CHONE projects him for .230/.332/.368. A player with Zaun's track record is not going to have a whole lot of volatility in his projection, so we're starting out with a boring one. But hopefully we can get plenty of input and create an accurate picture of what the BCB community thinks he will contribute in 2010.
I have a new toy to play with this year for these projections, it's called Google Forms and it's a part of Google Docs. Just go to this nifty little form linked right here and answer the four questions. I can even edit the background style. It's not difficult, just type in your projections for the three rate stats as a decimal to three places and the percent of playing time at catcher. All of that information is gathered in a spreadsheet, which is nice because then I do not have to spend several hours copying all of the projections into a spreadsheet by hand.
The comment threads on these projection posts can still be an area for discussion on the projections, and you can certainly post your projection in there if you would like to do so. As always, I'll be around to answer questions left there as well.
**Finally, as far as I can tell, there is not a way to limit the amount of entries per person. So unless you can achieve personal gain from skewing the data by entering your projections multiple times, I ask for one entry per person, please.
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Somehow I feel obligated to post this
http://www.desipio.com/?p=2752
Not claiming to 100% agree with it, these are still a good way to waste some time and make stuff up.
Shruggity
Yeah I guess we could just whine about things and talk about stupid stuff?
I don’t really know what to say to that. Ignore projections if you want. The argument is almost like “who cares about numbers its a baseball game.”
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Depending upon your taste in music
The comments directly below this make the second half of your subject seem prophetic.
by TheJay on Feb 23, 2010 9:20 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Hahaha
Things get a bit off topic. But the difference is having a post about community projections that gets sidetracked vs. a post about music. And there was an extensive conversation about tipping pizza delivery people in a mug the other day.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Why thank you
I was hoping someone would pick that up.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Feb 22, 2010 5:55 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm sure I would have caught it...
… but I didn’t know who Lil Wayne was until I saw the heavily tattooed guy flashing gang signs at me from the cover of February’s Rolling Stone.
Now then, you kids get outta my yard.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 22, 2010 8:16 PM CST up reply actions
He's eccentric , no doubt
but it’s part of the act, got your attention obviously. If you want a more positive representation of current hip-hop, I’d suggest checking out this guy.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
Wayne >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Drake
I was drunk. Sue me.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Feb 22, 2010 10:09 PM CST up reply actions
I actually didn't say my personal opinion of either, just said he was a more "positive" image
I’m just going to say I’m not a huge fan of Rebirth. No Ceilings was epic stuff but what can I say it’s one man’s opinion, I think Thank Me Later will put Rebirth to shame. Carter III went hard though, can’t argue with that stuff.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Anyone worth listening to that isn't mainstream?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Hmmm. Depends on what you mean by mainstream.
Personally I like some Yo Gotti. Kid Cudi is an extremely good artist, don’t know if he’s considered mainstream or not but his first album Man on the Moon has a lot of great songs that weren’t released as singles. I’ll throw Gorilla Zoe and Trey Songz out there as well. And Fabolous.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
They're not too bad
Personally, I like T.I. a lot. He has a lot of great songs on his past album that weren’t released as singles too. Of course, if you’re looking for additional/hilarious awesomeness, check out Duece Poppi or Dynamite Hack.
Oh, and if you’re looking for ridiculousness, you can always listen to D.I.N.O.S.A.U.R.
#CounsellWSMVP10 - realize the dream
I have all of Paper Trail
It is a really good album… I do think he qualifies as mainstream though.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Current hip-hop?
I recommend Brother Ali (bonus points: he was born in Madison, WI and kind of looks like an albino Seth McClung) or Binary Star, who are one of my favorite hip-hop groups of all time and are supposedly reuniting for a new album this year. Lil Wayne isn’t hip-hop.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I'm 19....
and I just listen to Johnny Cash.
by KittenMittons on Feb 23, 2010 7:53 AM CST up reply actions
Hey
You still need to respond to my email so I can get you the Timber Rattler tickets you won.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
You can just throw them in the envelope with mine.
You’re welcome for making your job easier.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Feb 23, 2010 9:51 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You just made my day!
Sorry for the late response, I haven’t checked my email in a few days. You should have it now though.
by KittenMittons on Feb 23, 2010 9:56 AM CST up reply actions
Just got it.
I passed along the addresses to the Timber Rattlers, so tickets should be on their way soon.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Not hip-hop
Flogging Molly and Gogol Bordello, Kaizers Orchestra if you can manage to find it. But my taste in music is somewhat unusual.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Feb 23, 2010 11:19 AM CST up reply actions
Mine too.
Almost everyone I listen to has been dead for a while, and the few exceptions are folks few seem to have heard of.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 23, 2010 1:25 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think it was anything he did that got my attention.
I was standing in line at Barnes&Noble and my eyes were roaming the mags on the shelves next to the check out counters. I probably looked at every mag cover on that stand while I was waiting to buy a crappy fantasy novel. Sooner or later, I was going to look at the Stone cover.
I suppose I did notice the gang signs and the red bandanna sticking out of his back pocket, which he clearly wanted people to see. I’ve never heard his stuff, so I can’t judge his art, but I’m never really impressed by millionaires playing at being thugs, even when it’s genuine.
As an aside, I can never really figure out why “got your attention” is seen as an achievement. Given money and a lack of shame, it’s not like it’s hard to do.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 22, 2010 11:09 PM CST up reply actions
no miss katie
i said i wasn’t addicted to it anymore.
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Feb 23, 2010 8:59 AM CST up reply actions
does he rap about projects in his community?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Feb 23, 2010 12:12 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Ah what the hell
I’ll post what I submitted:
.260/.340/.410 with 55% of the playing time.
Get a ife broseph
I don't know why, but I'm not optimistic about Zaun.
I went with .241/.332/.377 and 55%.
Sadly, that would still be an improvement over Kendall.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Community projections mean it feels like baseball season!
.240/.340/.375 and 50% of the playing time
The backup situation really is a mess; Kottaras isn’t a very good defensive option, Treanor isn’t a very good anything option, and leaving Salome/Lucroy both in the minors is not ideal in the least in terms of their playing time. I think the team is trying to put pressure on the younger players to win their way onto the major league roster, and expect I that Salome will probably spend most of the season splitting time with Zaun (they’ll probably give Lucroy a full season at AAA so as not to rush him). Or maybe i’m just in denial about preparing for a full season of Zaun/Kottaras :(
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I think it is in the Brewers best interest to send both Salome and Lucroy down.
At least long enough to gain a year of service time. The would be about a month and a half for Salome and just under a month for Lucroy. I think if one gets called up it would be Salome since he is already on the 40-man roster.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
.240/.340/.370
Are you going to run into problems with some people putting
“240” and some people putting “.240”? Obviously, that will be easy to go in and fix, but if you clarify in the fanpost, or on the form, which one you want, it might make things less tedious for you down the road.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I know we're all not exactly thrilled about a grizzled vet catcher.
But if we just take some time to visit the official greggzaun.com website in preparation for his walk-up song, I think we’ll all feel a lot better.
How far will this one fly?
by Rendezvous on Feb 22, 2010 5:27 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
I'm a little more optimistic than some
.215/.360/.394 with 60% playing time
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
.215?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Whoa, my bad
.251
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Feb 22, 2010 7:59 PM CST up reply actions
I'd do a little dance if our catcher OPS is .754
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 22, 2010 8:30 PM CST up reply actions
Now that the NL Central is empty...
What division are the Brewers in?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
space ball
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Feb 23, 2010 9:01 AM CST up reply actions
.240/.331/.385 and 65%
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
Wish I would have thought of this last year
I put a lot of time copying each individual entry into a spreadsheet, then I had to figure out a formula to separate the slash lines into three separate cells, and then playing time separately. Now it’s all done for me when I check the spreadsheet later at night. Good work folks, 45 entries so far is really impressive. Two notes I’ll throw in tomorrow’s post: It’s best if you can put the slash stats in with a decimal in front of the number, and the percent sign is not necessary.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I will definitely be voting for Google when he runs for president.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 22, 2010 9:33 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Just wait until tomorrow
I just found out I can embed the form in the story. I think it will work.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Shutcho mouf!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 22, 2010 9:42 PM CST up reply actions
I'm talkin' 'bout Shaft
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
by Yar Nivek on Feb 22, 2010 10:48 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Who's the black private dick that's a sex machine with aaaaaaaaaaaaall the chicks?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 23, 2010 1:34 AM CST up reply actions
I thought we were done talking about L'il Wayne...
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
You spell it
“Suppan’s value to the 2010 Brewers”
Q: Did you ever scout Corey Hart? What seems to be holding him back from being a good hitter for AVG?
A: The slider away. And that facial hair.
-Keith Law ESPN chat 2/11/10
by molitorfan on Feb 23, 2010 7:37 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
I love google.
And will be quite willing to accept it as my leader when it ultimately takes over the world after toppling the evil Apple overlord.
by NoahJ on Feb 22, 2010 10:40 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
partially out of fear for when it indexes this post
by PagsBrewCrew on Feb 23, 2010 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
Additionally, we're not going to project backups at all for catcher?
Not even what we did a couple times last year where we just labeled it “backup”?
We could but it's probably not worth the time
If I really want to get down to a specific number of wins like I was trying to do last year, it would be necessary. Otherwise I can just assume replacement level or use CHONE projections or something. The main thing is to project the performance of the main guys this year. Variation in the backup catcher isn’t going to change the final projection much, and I’ll present as a 3 or 4 win range anyway.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
It might change it somewhat significantly considering how much we think Zaun will play.
Maybe not with Kendall catching 95% of games, but it seems like most everyone is projecting pretty significant playing time for whoever the back up catcher is.
But whatever, I’m just happy to be doing this again.
Very true
But if it averages out to 60% for GZaun and 10% for each of the other options we mentioned, with varying projections for each, that’’s just frustrating to do all of that. We can always do more towrads the end here if need be. Just starting it out with some Zaun to get things going.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Sounds good. It's your series, after all.
Do you really think that playing time might vary that much between backups though, or do you think we’ll be seeing mostly one backup through the year barring injury?
I think they pick Kotorras or Treanor, and then promote one of the other two later in the year
The issue is that it’s an average. If one person projects Salome for 40 percent PT and Lucroy 0 and another goes Zaun 70 Kottaras 30 and another Zaun 60 Treanor 20 Lucroy 20, as you can see it winds up averaging out to small amounts for each guy because there are so many scenarios that could go down and it’s so early yet. If the four average out to 10% each it won’t have much of an impact on what we put for each.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
.238/.335/.395
55% playing time.
I think he’ll need some time for minor injuries, and I think his BABIP will regress to the mean, bringing the rest of his slash stats down. But I for one am happy to have a catcher who can hit a few long balls.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
.275/.325/.385 with a 70% playing time.
Those are the numbers that I pulled out….
by Saberilliterate on Feb 23, 2010 7:07 AM CST reply actions
.251/.318/.389 45%
them old knees ain’t what she used to be, ain’t what she used to be
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin

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