Community Projections: First Base
by Jordan M on Feb 23, 2010 3:45 PM CST
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PrintWe're back today to project a player who is a little more fun to project than Gregg Zaun. Prince Fielder is entering his fifth full season already, and as a hitter he's been 50 weighted runs above average twice. There's no doubt about his status as one of the great hitters of our time.
So with that introduction, here's the relevant data: CHONE projects .294/.387/.577, and ZiPS projects .288/.385/.569. I don't have much else to add, but he seems ready for another incredible year.
Today I'm going to do a little experiment with this form and imbed it in the story after the jump. Hopefully everything goes smoothly, if it looks very funny on someone's browser be sure to let me know. The instructions are after the jump in the form's body, note the correct ways to enter the slash stats and the percentage. Again, we won't project a backup at first because Prince will account for almost all of the time and we do not really know who would back him up if he ever does decide to take a day off.
And I will also mention here that though it appears I am neglecting defense, we'll cover that for all the position players in a big post towards the end of projection season. We are not neglecting the importance of defense. It's just a difficult item to put a number on, so we'll postpone that for a time.
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The Googles FTW!!!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
.285/.390/.575 100%
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
.305/.410/.610
99% of playing time. I am going to go ahead and be very optimistic with the big guy.
Is anyone putting down 50% playing time or something thinking he’ll be traded mid-season?
1.020 OPS
Just sayin’.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 23, 2010 4:10 PM CST up reply actions
Well...
He’s been over 1.000 twice—2007 and 2009, and not quite to 1.020 either time. Last year in all of baseball, Pujols OPS was 1.101, then Mauer at 1.031, then Fielder at 1.014. No one else was over 1.000. I just think its on the 90th percentile line or so.
But, that’s what this is for—its cool if someone’s optimistic on Prince (and he’s basically done it twice before), I just am not that optimistic myself.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 23, 2010 4:51 PM CST up reply actions
.295/.395/.580 85%
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I think he'll get pitched around a lot
So I went .284/.390/.590.
I also think he’ll take a bat into Ken Macha’s office if given a day off, so I went 100% on playing time.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
I considered going with 100% playing time
But I figured Macha would do the same thing he did last year: start him every game and sit him for the final inning every once in a while. Maybe 99.9% would have been a better estimate.
by BrewHaHeather on Feb 23, 2010 4:22 PM CST up reply actions
Well, if you're going be percentage of PA's
I think Fielder actually got every Brewer PA at 1B last season.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
You are correct.
McGehee was the only other player to log any time at 1B… all four times he played first it was late in the game when Fielder wasn’t going to get another PA.
Totally agree on the getting pitched around aspect
Hart or a regressing C-McG batting 5th won’t be enough protection.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Point of clarification:
if you think he’s going to get pitched around more, shouldn’t his OBP go up? Or do you think he’s going to feel the pressure and start hacking away, despite the fact that he’s not getting pitches to hit?
The second option
Actually, I’m wishing I could lower my AVG projection a bit, to something in the .265-.275 range.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
I just meant it in comparison to the projections
I’m predicting his AVG to decrease at the same time. You do have a point, though. Maybe a .400 OBP would be more accurate.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Hard to say...
Last season, the #5 spot was manned by seven different players:
Cameron (64 games)
McGehee (59 games)
Hart (18 games)
Hardy (14 games)
Gamel (4 games)
Catalanotto (2 games)
Gerut (1 game)
I would think that a regressing McGehee and Hart manning that spot in the lineup would be able to account for close to 100 of the games from last season when Cameron wasn’t in the #5 spot. Yes, there would be less protection without Cameron, but I’m not sure if that’ll translate to a big drop in hittable pitches seen by Fielder.
Great work
I love the in-text option. If I could make one suggestion, it would be that you include the last 2 or 3 seasons of stats we are projecting to give us a little historical perspective. It’s probably just as easy for me to go and look them up, but I think people might appreciate that along with the CHONE and ZiPS.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
I'll go ahead and post them here since I already have the stats in front of me...
2007
.288/.395/.618
2008
.276/.372/.507
2009
.299/.412/.602
I probably could have done that before
However, I just figured people make their projections first before reading the comments so as not to be influenced by everyone else’s…at least that’s what I do.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Feb 23, 2010 5:13 PM CST up reply actions
And another thought...
If you are concerned about people projecting more than once, you could just add a box to type in your username, which I would assume would just attach next to the projection in the spreadsheet. That way you would see duplicates or made up usernames.
This also might be a cool and easy way to see at the end of the year who was closest to the actual production.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Feb 23, 2010 5:18 PM CST up reply actions
If somebody really wanted to enter twice, they would make up usernames.
As it stands, there are a lot of people that read the site but don’t comment/have usernames. They’re still be able to participate here. The second idea is cool, though.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I like your point about people without usernames still being able to contribute
And I would hate to remove them from the pool of contributors. Maybe if we stressed that it’s optional and only needed if you want to be included in the end of the year comparisons.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Feb 23, 2010 5:41 PM CST up reply actions
It's in a spreadsheet in order
If there are more than two duplicate rows in a row I’ll know something’s up. And I don’t know why someone would want to put a lot of entries in anyway.
As much as i’d like to sort everyone’s specific projections, it would be a lot of extra work to paste everyone’s into their own spreadsheet or column, and that’s time I don’t have right now unfortunately.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I think major league pitchers are far more scared of Cameron than Hart/McGehee
Simply based on reputation.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
.300/.400/.600 and 100%
Remember how he had a terrible start to the season last year, and still ended up with the numbers he did? I think his age, Braun staying the same or getting better, his contract situation, etc. are all going to help him this year.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
.320/.445/.607 & 99%
I am going to be very optimistic with his BA. I think that the patience that he has shown at the plate will pay off for him in both OBP and BA.
Also this is in essence a contract year for him. Yes – he is arbi eligible, but I think that he will treat it as a contract knowing the high likely hood of him being traded in December.
by Saberilliterate on Feb 23, 2010 5:58 PM CST reply actions
Yep
5th full season, age 26. He should see his best production over the next three years. I just figured he’s finally going to miss some time from a small injury, and grab ~50 HRs and ~120 walks in 145 games or so. The leap of faith is his average, and I think the contract year will provide extra focus. shrug
I think the slugging is making people look twice
No one has slugged that highly since Bonds in 2004. Remember Fielder hit 46 HR last year and barely cracked .600.
Someone did project that he would slug "19" in a playing time of "3"
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Feb 24, 2010 11:24 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I can't wait for the day he's five for four with three homers, two doubles, and a triple.
by TheJay on Feb 24, 2010 1:40 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
That earned me a strange look from my family
They already think I’m a baseball nerd, but laughing at a baseball blog’s comments? Come on!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 24, 2010 3:49 PM CST up reply actions
Aw, you guys
Making fun of me, that’s no fun. .688 is huge, but not impossible. Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, and Todd Helton all did better than that at 26, and Fielder is stronger. I’m gonna stick to pictures from now on, you can keep your numbers.
I wasn't making fun of you
I was making fun of the “19” in “3” entry. I think .688 is very unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility.
Yeah that wasn't directed toward you at all
I had several slugging percentages over .800, plus that 19.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Over .800?
Apparently they think he’ll have an awesome first week, then get injured for the rest of the season?
No, it's really strange
The slash lines are legitimate except for that. Like .280/.420/.860. I don’t know what that’s about.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
maybe people are thinking OPS instead of SLG
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
To get the slugging percentage of "19" wouldn't he have to do that in 1 PA?
19/1. Although we are discussing the impossible.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Yeah.
And its STILL almost 5 times higher than the theoretical maximum.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 24, 2010 8:10 PM CST up reply actions
You underestimate just how good Prince is.
Remember Prince’s in the park homerun in the Metrodome that counted because the beams for the roof were in play? Well, that was just practice. Next time he is in a dome with the supporting beams in play, he will be able to land the ball right on top of one so that it stays up there, allowing him to run the bases 4.75 times before he passes out from oxygen deprivation.
by NoahJ on Feb 24, 2010 10:17 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
haha
I loved watching that. Just utter disbelief by both my wife and I.
And if I’m remembering right, Prince actually has two in the park homeruns.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 24, 2010 10:48 PM CST up reply actions
He does; he's had one two years in a row.
Both at about the same time in the season, if I remember right. But the Metrodome one is the only ITPHR that fits the conspiracy theory.
Yeah.
June 17, 2007 against the Twins (Roof beam) and June 18, 2008. I’m calling it right now. June 19, 2010 at Colorado he is going to hit #3.
The other one got stuck in the wall, correct?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
That sounds right
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 25, 2010 9:41 PM CST up reply actions
1/1/4 100%
What can I say? I am a bit of an optimist.
(Please note: I did not actually enter this)
by BrewCrewBrian on Feb 24, 2010 7:42 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
.293/.381/.591 99
not as optimistic as others, but still a very strong year.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 1:03 PM CST)
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