Community Projections: Second Base
by Jordan M on Feb 24, 2010 4:00 PM CST
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PrintToday it's Rickie Weeks and the rest of the second basemen on the projection schedule. Durability is probably the most important part of this projection, because Weeks has yet to go over 475 plate appearances in a season. Last year in 147 PAs he hit .272/.340/.517, which looks very nice but is actually below his career OBP. Weeks has been a very productive hitter in his career so far, being underrated by most fans and many writers. The fourth annual Rickie Weeks breakout season begins now, and it starts with health.
Chone projects .262/.368/.449, ZiPS projects .240/.345/.419. From here on I will link the player's Fangraphs page if any of our participants would like to scout out the past few seasons. That page also has a few other projections systems you might find interesting.
For the first time we're going to throw a backup in the mix as well. I'm going to assume that Craig Counsell will be the primary backup at second base, but we'll project him tomorrow in the shortstop section. Joe Inglett makes an appearance in this particular form. If you don't feel he will make the team it's perfectly fine to leave his boxes blank. Finally, and this requires a bit of math, submit your playing time percentages as usual but make sure they add up to 100. If you think a player that is not Inglett or Counsell will get some time at second base (Casey McGehee maybe), stick that time in the final "other" box.
Inglett's relevant numbers are a .273/.333/.375 ZiPS projection and .278/.341/.386 line from CHONE. Here's his Fangraphs page for further reference.
The form is again after the jump. We had 150 entries yesterday, which is very good work (although I'm going to throw out the 5 or 6 entries with slugging percentages above .800, and the humorous person who entered "3" in playing time and "14" for slugging percentage). And a few people wrote a number of games instead of a percentage of playing time, please make that change as we go on. Thanks for your participation.
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Weeks:
.245/.335/.425 70
Inglett:
.270/.330/.380 20
Counsell PT% 10
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
I'm a little more optimistic on Weeks
I went .260/.350/.450, 70%
We’re about the same on Inglett, though, and agreed on Counsell.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
I'm just fearing the wrist
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 24, 2010 5:22 PM CST up reply actions
.275/.345/.475 @ 75%
No Inglett
Counsell @ 20% with an other @ 5%
by Saberilliterate on Feb 24, 2010 4:27 PM CST reply actions
I'm optimistic on playing time
(or just not willing to project another injury)
Weeks: .255/.355/.480 and 90%
Inglett: .280/.340/.380 and 2%
C.C. at 8%
Weeks is a hard player to project. Between his 2007 season and his shortened 2009 season, his average went up almost 40 points but his on-base percentage dropped almost 35 points, yikes!
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
2% is a really low percentage.
Roughly 15 PAs. In Inglett makes the team at all, he’ll almost certainly play more than that.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
I expect him to play more than that, just not at 2B. If Weeks can start around 146 games (where I’m probably being very optimistic) that leaves 16 starts between Counsell and Inglett. Counsell can probably play most of those with Inglett filling in every three starts or so (3-4 total games started at 2B).
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Weeks: .255/.344/.410 in 60% PT.
Inglett: .274/.339/.381 in 20% PT
Counsell: 15% PT
Other player: 5% PT
If he's healthy for 80 games I'd be shocked!!!
And I’m still waiting for that huge Lopez contract to get inked!
Why do you keep insisting that Lopez would/was ever going to get a huge contract?
And last year was the only year Weeks was below 90 games, so I’m not really sure why >80 would be “shocking.”
Shruggity
I'm saying the "huge Lopez contract" part sarcastically because I kept getting hammered on this...
…site about how much money he was going to make! I hope I am wrong about <80 games, but that injury and the amount of PA’s a leadoff man has = time off on the DL. I did just come across something interesting from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rickie_Weeks:
In early 2009, sabermetrician Bill James wrote in John Dewan’s “The Fielding Bible Volume II,” that Weeks should be moved to a position other than second base. James said Weeks led the majors at his position in a category he calls defensive misplays (which does not include errors), with 44. An average second baseman has 28 defensive misplays a season. Dewan ranked Weeks the worst starting second baseman in the majors.4
Hmmm, I’ll try to dig that James’ article up to make sure. However, I also remember getting hammered on this site about Weeks defense compared to Lopez (although Lopez may have been starting at SS at that time…and he was spotty at best there).
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 7:03 AM CST)
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