Community Projections: Shortstops
by Jordan M on Feb 25, 2010 4:00 PM CST
12 comments
First I have the results of our projections on Gregg Zaun. I like our results here, we're slightly higher in slugging but pretty well in line. We project Zaun for 63.6% of the playing time at catcher, so that works out to about 380-400 plate appearances, and that makes a lot of sense to me.
BCB Community Projection: .249/.336/.384
CHONE: .230/.332/.368
ZiPS: .243/.345/.373
And with that, we're on the shortstops. It's Alcides Escobar's first year in the majors, and this represents one of the most variable projections we will have this year. Last year's line of .304/.333/.368 shows the unique situation he's in: the average shows the incredible promise that he has as an offensive player, but the fact that he only managed a .311 wOBA and .700 OPS indicates that his average will have to stay this high to maintain even a below-average level of production. He's young, so it's very likely that his ability to draw walks and hit for power will improve. There's plenty of evidence that a high average could be sustainable for him eventually, but this year could be a struggle for him. There's no doubt Escobar will be a valuable player this year, but how much of that can we attribute to his bat?
Here's Escobar's Fangraphs page and MLS page. CHONE says .291/.334/.389. ZiPS says .279/.321/.378. What do you say?
Meanwhile, there's everybody's favorite deity, Craig Counsell. He's really old. ZiPS projects .252/.337/.353, CHONE projects .234/.324/.323. I'd assume he's the main backup at short but I'll put in an "other" box once again if you'd like to budget some shortstop time for someone else. Here's the Craig Counsell fangraphs page.
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.285/.330/.389
so here’s a question outside of community projections. let’s assume macha does his line-up with the pitcher in the 8 hole; in this hypothetical, either gomez or escobar would be assumed to be in the 7/9 in some fashion. do you think that line-up would stick with someone else in the utility role filling in for escobar?
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
No
That said, I do think it should stick, especially if Counsell is the one filling in, as we would expect; Counsell is a pretty solid on-base guy, which would work well for the whole “second leadoff hitter” thing. That said, my impression is that Macha thinks of it as more of a speedy on-base guy thing, so I don’t think he’d do it with Counsell.
That said, if he normally hit Gomez 7th, the pitcher 8th and Escobar 9th, perhaps he’d put Counsell in the 7 hole and bump Gomez down to the 9th spot on Escobar’s off days.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
I'd just like to say...
It’s really, really exciting to have a top-notch prospect, especially one with defensive skill, especially one who’s being handed a job.
Maybe I’m jaded by all the projecting going on, but I think it’s awesome that we’re going to see Alcides sink or swim in real time. While Counsell could end up getting more p.t., it’s more likely that AE plays 5+ times a week pretty much regardless of what he does at the plate. We’re going to see him make some ridiculous plays, some boneheaded error (and probably flashy ones, too), we’ll see him look way overmatched at the plate, and we’ll see him hit a triple in April off of Zambrano or somebody.
That’s what gets me psyched for a new season.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 25, 2010 7:32 PM CST reply actions 3 recs
I'm excited too
My understanding is that both of our new players (being Escobar and Gomez) are known for ‘hotdogging’ to some extent, and can cause boneheaded plays both on defense and sometimes on the basepaths.
I understand that Escobar’s range is possibly at the top of the list of MLB shortstops. What I’m interested in is whether he will indeed be better than Hardy. Defensive metrics are hard to read—TotalZone vs. UZR for example—but UZR did like Hardy to the tune of 3rd best defender regardless of position over the past 3 seasons cumulative.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 25, 2010 8:23 PM CST up reply actions
Clarification
I’m thinking of next year due to the fact that I think the Brewers could have afforded to hold on to Hardy and possibly get better value in a trade out of him after they had guaranteed another year of service time.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 25, 2010 8:25 PM CST up reply actions
I was just thinking that the other day
How the thing I’m most excited about this season is watching Escobar and Gomez field the middle. It’s gonna be VERY exciting.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
You're Excited?!?
Feel these Nipples!!!
/end of channeling baseketball
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
.275/.325/.370 90% and 90 Ks
Counsell .260/.355/.360 9%
Other 1%
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 55 | .586 | 0 | Won 4 |
|
St. Louis
|
69 | 62 | .526 | 8 | Lost 5 |
|
Houston
|
62 | 71 | .466 | 16 | Won 3 |
|
Milwaukee
|
62 | 71 | .466 | 16 | Lost 3 |
|
Chicago
|
57 | 77 | .425 | 21.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
44 | 89 | .330 | 34 | Lost 1 |
(updated 9.3.2010 at 9:13 AM CDT)
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