Division Rival Analysis - St. Louis Cardinals

by backtocali on Feb 5, 2010 4:20 PM CST Comment 9 comments

I got the idea for this over on the Colorado Rockies board, where they were asked who the felt was more important, Clayton Kershaw to the Dodgers, or Brandon Webb to the Diamondbacks.

If there is a good response, I will try to do one of these for each team in the division.

The Cardinals won the division last year by 8 games. They received an MVP season from Albert Pujols and his 8.4 WAR, and VERY good seasons from Matt Holliday (2.7 WAR in 2.25 of the year), Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter (both 5= WAR) and Joel Piniero 4.8 WAR. They also had solid performances from Yadier Molina 3.4 WAR and Brendan Ryan 3.2 WAR.

Taking into account that players with 5+ WAR are either really good and will probably repeat, or come close to repeating their numbers, or had big outlier types of seasons, the "little" things that get them to the playoffs, or close are the key solid contributions.

For the 2010 Cardinals, what do you think has to be the thing that happens for them to get back to the playoffs, or at least contend?

1) Chris Carpenter's Health

2) Brendan Ryan another 3+ WAR year

3) Yadier Molina another 3+ WAR year

4) Replacing Joel Pineiro

(I wanted to add a poll here, but the stupid web broser on my work computer isnt up to date and every time I tried the function, it crashed my internet).

What do you all think?

0 recs | Comment 9 comments

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For me

Its Brendan Ryan. He needs to put up another solid season offensively and continue his great work with the glove.

Pujols, Holliday and Wainwright all should put up good years. Of course Carpenter has to stay healthy but I dont know if he can put up another 5 win season.

The Kyle Lohse/Brad Penny combo is something for them to worry about too. Piniero had an all star type year last year. They still win the division without him, but they need a pretty solid #3 starter to get them back to the playoffs.

by backtocali on Feb 5, 2010 4:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Healthy Carp, for sure

His health is certainly something that shouldn’t be taken for granted, and when he’s healthy, he’s dominant. When he’s not healthy, they’re down an ace. That’s a huge swing. Even if Yadi or Ryan don’t put up 3+ WAR seasons, they’ll still probably give you 2 or so WAR. The difference between having Carp and not having Carp is much bigger than 1 WAR.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Feb 5, 2010 5:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Healthy Carpenter

But not replacing Piniero will hurt too, but an injured Carpenter will hurt more.

"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC

by BrewHaHeather on Feb 5, 2010 9:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Ditto on all these

I think the last three would be nice for them, but healthy Carp (and Wainwright, for that matter, though there’s much less concern about his health) is as big as the rest of them combined.

I’m curious and too lazy to look it up: Their rotation is what, Carp, Wainwright, Lohse, Penny and Wellemeyer? Who’s their 6th and 7th starting options?

by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 6, 2010 6:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Rich Hill then a prospect

I think that even if Carpenter stays healthy hes not going to be able to repeat his 2009. He’ll be 35 already and he had an outstandin year, not necessarily an outlier, but above and beyond even an above average season.

Ryan does for them kind of what Eckstein did for all of those years. If it werent for the molester mustache, he’d be a fun guy to watch. Cannon arm at SS, the old fashioned stirrups and a grinder. Unfortunately for the grinder types, its pretty hard for them to repeat the things that give them great seasons.

by backtocali on Feb 6, 2010 9:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Cardinal team moustaches were awesome.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Feb 6, 2010 11:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I have to imagine

that a full year of Holliday will help them as well.

"I like Suppan"
- Noah J. on 12/22/09

by molitorfan on Feb 6, 2010 8:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

i'm skeptical

i don’t think holliday is going to replicate his rate of partial season production over the full year. i have no analysis to support this, but i think they’ll regret him sooner than later.

i think carpenter isn’t that much of a question mark (i’d assume about the same number of starts as last year), but i’m not sure i buy wainwright’s new level of productivity and how they filled the gaps in their rotation.

by Capt Science on Feb 6, 2010 2:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Cardinals fan chiming in...

There is no doubt that the key to the Cardinals is Carpenter. Since he signed with the team in 2003 he has had 4 seasons where he made 28 or more starts….2004, 2005, 2006 & 2009. The Cards have won the division all 4 of those years and only in 2006 was it even close. In the years that Carpenter has missed (2003, 2007 & 2008) the Cards have 2 winning records but no playoff appearances. Pujols and his ridiculous production virtually guarantees that the Cards will be in contention every season but it is Carpenter that pushes the Cards over the top.

"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.

by indakind on Feb 23, 2010 9:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs