CHONE projections have Brewers at 81 wins, tied for second
Ten games back of the first place Cardinals, tied with the Reds for second and two games up on the fourth place Cubs.
about 2 years ago
Kyle Lobner
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Fourth place Cubs...
I could get used to hearing that.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
There are some surprises in those projections
Pirates and Royals are not last and the Mariners and Giants are last in their respective divisions
I can see that with the Mariners
Their offense is bad. They are likely going to lose many-a-game 3 to 1 or 2 to 0. A team doesn’t need a ton of power to win, but I can’t see zero power plus zero on base skills translating to a very fun year for Jack Z.
Ichiro
Figgins
Lopez
Bradley/Byrnes
Kotchman
Gutierrez
Griffey
Wilson
Johnson
Not real pretty
Plus, beyond Hernandez/Lee, their rotation isn’t all that outstanding. I’d take Davis/Parra/Bush over the Mariners’ 3-5.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Feb 6, 2010 2:44 PM CST up reply actions
I might be biased by Lookout Landing
but I’d take the Mariners to win that division. There’s a lot of fluctuation built into projections like this, which the creator will admit. First, it’s not even a prediction, it’s just a projection. Then there’s the issues of defense (CHONE is going to underrate the Mariners because of that, even though I’m pretty sure he’s using TotalZone to create a defense projection). You also have to look at the playing time allocation, pitching innings, leverage, it’s tough to do that well for every team (impossible, even). I would just treat these as an interesting thing to look at. There’s at least a give or take of 5 wins each way.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I've never really understood...
the “it’s not a prediction, it’s a projection” argument. Yeah, there are loads of intangibles that can occur in the season that can throw things off. But ultimately that’s the same with any prediction in any sport. Ultimately people don’t start calling their predictions “projections” because the athlete they want to win might get spiked, the quarterback might get injured or the opposition might fluke a goal direct from a corner…
Saying that, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mariners won their division.
"I hope your name is Rick"
The projection/prediction thing is covered really well by Dave Cameron here
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/of-projections-and-predictions/
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Cheers
Kinda makes sense now I’ve read the article and thought about it – thanks for the link. I guess the main thing is that projection systems wouldn’t take into account issues such as teams keeping a sizeable chunk of cash to splash out on mid-season if necessary, teams that are losing holding a fire sale etc. However, given all the things they do take into account I think it is reasonable to assume that, for example, the order that they say teams will finish in can be taken as a rough prediction that they can be held to account on, even if, say, the exact number of wins they predict can’t.
"I hope your name is Rick"
Just to clarify...
I’m not suggesting that if they predict that the teams should finish in a certain order and they don’t that their projection/prediction can be taken as totally wrong, just that any difference in how they finish should be possible to explain (e.g. we said that team A would only finish third, but if they hadn’t bought that star pitcher early on then they wouldn’t have done so).
"I hope your name is Rick"
Meh
I don’t think there’s any sport where pre-season projections are more useless than in baseball. It’s one thing to say “This is how a team stacks up” as opposed to “This is how a team is going to finish.” Way too much happens in 6 months for any of this to hold water.
At the same time, anytime someone says we’ll be better than the Cubs, I’ll take it., haha.
Mike Bischoff
Milwaukee, WI
For preseason rankings, these seem pretty believable to me.
Though that doesn’t mean I’m not holding out for a 90+ win season!
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.15.2012 at 1:03 PM CST)
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