Friday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Mar 12, 2010 8:44 AM CST
in News
74 comments
Some things to read while noting the drawbacks of spring.
The Brewers dropped both halves of yesterday's split squad action, but it wasn't Ryan Braun's fault. Braun, who was scratched from the travel roster with hamstring tightness, played in the home game instead and went 1-for-3 with his second home run of the spring. Unfortunately, the remaining Brewers were only able to muster two more runs between the two games.
There were some positives to take away from yesterday's action, though:
- Both starting pitchers pitched very well. Chris Narveson allowed one hit and one walk over three scoreless innings in Goodyear with three strikeouts, and Randy Wolf allowed two hits and two walks in his three scoreless innings, striking out four.
- Mitch Stetter, who struggled in his previous outing, rebounded with a scoreless ninth against the A's, allowing one hit and striking out two.
- In fact, nearly all of the runs allowed by Brewer pitchers yesterday were given up by pitchers who won't make the Opening Day roster: Kameron Loe, Amaury Rivas, Chris Capuano and Mark Rogers accounted for seven of the ten runs. LaTroy Hawkins was responsible for the other three.
- Trent Oeltjen was able to return to action for the first time since being hit on the wrist by a pitch over the weekend. He walked in his only plate appearance in Goodyear.
Chris Narveson's strong start to spring training has given the Brewers a good problem to have. Narveson is out of options, so he's forcing the team to consider what they might be able to do with the lefty.
It probably won't be enough to earn him a spot on the roster, but Lorenzo Cain continued a pretty nice spring yesterday, entering as a pinch runner, stealing his third base of the spring and scoring a run. Tom Haudricourt talked to him about the mental aspect of recovery and rehab from last season's injuries.
Meanwhile, the major league spring training ride is over for Cody Scarpetta, who was optioned to Brevard County yesterday. The Brewers are already high on him, but don't be surprised if they attempt to accelerate his path to the big leagues a bit: Because of a unique contract situation, this is already Scarpetta's second option to the minors. He'll almost certainly qualify for a fourth, but that still means he'll need to be ready to make the team in spring training 2013.
It's possible two more Brewers will be on their way out of camp today. Over at Brewerfan.net, Battlekow is reporting that Hernan Iribarren has been designated for assignment and Rule 5 pick Chuck Lofgren has been offered back to the Indians (FanShot). It hasn't been publicly confirmed yet, so we'll have to wait and see what happens. Hernan Iribarren still appeared in yesterday's game after this report surfaced.
Designating Iribarren this early would be a relatively clear indication that the Brewers don't feel like he has much to contribute at the major league level. If he were kept in major league camp, it's possible an injury or someone else's ineffectiveness would open up a spot for him - by designating him this early, they're effectively saying they'd rather consider other options in that situation.
Removing Lofgren from the mix, however, seems logical. He faced long odds to make the team in the first place, and has probably fallen behind Chris Narveson and John Axford (among others) in the race for the final bullpen spot. And if the Brewers decide to hang onto a sixth starter, then there won't even be a final bullpen spot.
Yesterday I mentioned a note on Carlos Gomez, and efforts to get him to keep the ball out of the air. Brewers Bar wonders if Gomez is becoming a real life Willie Mays Hayes, while Jeff Sackmann (at The Hardball Times) wonders if the change is a good idea.
Elsewhere in camp minutiae:
- Adam McCalvy has assorted notes on Chris Narveson, including Wisconsin ties, some background with Dave Bush, and a recently completed college degree.
- Danny Knobler of CBS Sports has five things to know about the Brewers, covering the usual bases: Alcides Escobar, Carlos Gomez, attendance, Prince Fielder and Chris Capuano.
In the minors: FanGraphs has their top 50 NL prospects, with Alcides Escobar (#8), Brett Lawrie (#29) and Mat Gamel (#47) representing the Brewers.
And on projections: NJIT Professor Bruce Bukiet released his 2010 projections yesterday, and has the Brewers winning 78 games and finishing third in the Central. (h/t MetsBlog)
Around baseball:
Dodgers: Brian Giles announced his retirement yesterday.
Mets: Jose Reyes will need to rest for roughly 2-8 weeks and will likely open the season on the DL with a thyroid issue.
Rockies: Signed Todd Helton to a two year, $9 million extension to keep him under contract through 2012.
I feel like I say this every time Joe Posnanski posts something, but it's true again today: Today's Mug is roughly half an hour late because I stopped to read this post about Bill Self. Like any good Posnanski piece, it's off-topic, 10,000 words long and will eat at least half an hour of your day, but it's well worth it. In fact, if you're a college basketball fan and you skip over it, you're doing yourself a disservice.
Happy birthday today to:
- 1991 and 1993-95 Brewer Mike Ignasiak, who turns 44.
- 2009 Helena Brewer Joel Morales, who turns 21.
Now if you'll excuse me, today is also my wife's birthday, so I have breakfast to make.
Drink up.
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To note the fact that both Narveson and Oeltjen’s performances yesterday were in Goodyear, not Peoria.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Narveson
He has to make the club as the long man doesn’t he? then if an injury or someone like Suppan stinks he gets the first shot?
"Bacon wrapped shrimp. It's my first favorite food wrapped in my third favorite food."
by JD View From Bernies Chalet on Mar 12, 2010 9:45 AM CST reply actions
That depends on what you think is going to happen with the starters.
Like it or not, Narvy’s probably the 7th starter right now, and odds are on the 6th as being the long man (if there even is a long man).
Shruggity
If it were up to me, Suppan would be gone. But I think he is in and that leaves Bush and Narveson. Maybe they just let Bush go and make Narveson the long man.
"Bacon wrapped shrimp. It's my first favorite food wrapped in my third favorite food."
by JD View From Bernies Chalet on Mar 12, 2010 10:10 AM CST up reply actions
I can't know Narveson's salary
But if it’s less than the $3-$3.25 million they’ll owe Bush if they cut him by March 31, I don’t see how the Brewers can keep Bush. I would think barring a blow-up later in ST, Narveson’s the 6th starter.
The thing I’m curious about is why the Brewers would move him to long relief after having spend all of 2008 stretching him out to be a starter. As I learned on BCB last year, starters are substantially more valuable than bullpen guys.
Would there be a possibility of trading Bush or Narveson before the end of March? I don’t know what the Brewers need, but a good starter at AA doesn’t seem out of the question for Bush or Narveson does it?
Bush would be due 1/4 of his salary if he was cut at the end of spring
So only about $1 million. Narveson is probably making around the minimum, maybe $450k. It might be tough to trade either player at this point, since other teams know they could just wait for the Brewers to waive one of them. I don’t think Narveson would be much in demand anyway because he hasn’t shown he can start long-term in the majors and a team acquiring him has to keep him there.
I was thinking about this...
any chance the Brewers will have an opening day roster which is filled with players “protected”, and not who they actually want to play with the rest of the season. Then try to arrange trades with other squads and promote those who “deserved” to be on the opening day squad based on spring training performance?
I don’t know if that was clear, so ask me to rephrase if you can’t figure me out.
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 12, 2010 11:05 AM CST up reply actions
I think I get what you're saying
I don’t know if there’s a rule against those sorts of roster hijinks, but it wouldn’t shock me if the only move you could make to your Opening Day 25 was a DL trip until a day or two into the season. Either way, it sounds too complicated to work for anyone other than possibly Dave Bush. Also, I don’t know all the players you’re thinking this applies to – Bush, Narveson, Kottaras?
How many teams would be that interested in the guys the Brewers keep just to trade a day or two later? Like I said, I doubt there’s much demand for Narveson, as good a spring as he’s having. What could you get for guys like him anyway in exchange for burning an option year or even an outright on guys you really want on the roster?
I think it more likely they are willing to swallow Suppan’s eight-figure salary for nothing after cutting him before the season.
If you wish upon a falling star
I think it more likely they are willing to swallow Suppan’s eight-figure salary for nothing after cutting him before the season.
Oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please
Narveson gets paid WAY less than that.
He’s only making around $400K since he has so little service time.
Makes no sense to me
Narveson has pitched well with the opportunities given. All things being equal, why not use the young, cheap arm that’s only going to improve with use?
Young?
Narveson is 28, wouldn’t exactly call that young. In fact Bush is only two years older than him. I’d rather see both of them as opposed to Suppan, of course.
by kingcharlesxii on Mar 12, 2010 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
I was thinking Suppan specifically
An old wine that is rapidly becoming indistinguishable from vinegar.
Agreed.
They need to look at Suppan’s contract is a sunk cost and try to field the best team possible.
I agree, but disagree
I agree that suppan should be considered a sunk cost. however, you do have to pay whoever you replace him with…that cost isn’t sunk yet.
So, that decision would cost 3-4M more, assuming they bring on bush, so that 3M is cost you throw away if you declare the rest sunk.
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 12, 2010 2:10 PM CST up reply actions
Well...
That’s true only if they were going to keep Suppan OR Bush. If they were planning on keeping Bush anyway, then replacing Suppan with Narveson would only cost the team an additional $400-450K.
I suppose the organization has never said they're cutting Bush
but everyone else seems to think it makes the most sense. Even as much as I like Bush, I’m inclined to agree that budget constraints dictate Bush may regrettably be cut loose.
Let’s just hope they don’t fall into the situation of when they surprisingly released Vargas and then ended up short on starters after a rash of injuries during the season.
From purely a minimizing payroll standpoint
cutting Bush makes the most sense, since most of his contract is not guaranteed (I think only like $1M is).
Plus, if Suppan signs elsewhere, the Brewers don't pay his salary there
So Narveson’s salary could be canceled out by that minimal savings assuming some team is willing to give a Veteran Innings-Eater a shot.
"Going to improve"?
That’s not a given.
Besides, would the Brewers really go with such a lefty-heavy rotation (one righty)?
Narveson improvement
I wonder if too much is being made over his few starts last September and a couple outings this spring. He could be a useful piece, but you could say that about a lot of guys who pitched in AAA in the first half of 2009.
I think so
He’s definitely pulling a McGehee (playing well above his MLEs) in his limited playing time at the MLB level.
I think he’s still worth a roster spot (whether it be in Milwaukee or someplace else), however.
Correct me if I'm wrong
But if they take their time in getting Riske back into game shape, couldn’t they start the season with all seven starters on the roster, with 2 in the bullpen? Obviously from a day to day sense this would handicap the bullpen, but this way you give Suppan 2 starts to prove he deserves a spot and if not get the heck out of dodge man.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Mar 12, 2010 11:34 AM CST up reply actions
To specify
Riske starting the season on the DL at extended spring training would offer the team a little more time to sort out the starting pitching.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Mar 12, 2010 11:44 AM CST up reply actions
No
If Riske starts on the DL, they have eleven pitchers:
Gallardo
Wolf
Davis
Parra
Bush/Suppan/Narveson
Hoffman
Coffey
Hawkins
Vargas
Villanueva
Stetter
Then a twelfth spot to use on a sixth starter or seventh reliever.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Mar 12, 2010 11:48 AM CST up reply actions
Thanks for the correction
I think I forgot to count Hawkins when counting the relievers.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Mar 12, 2010 11:53 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not sure if Hawkins, Villy or Vargas are worth keeping around frankly
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 12, 2010 2:13 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think they have any option but to keep those guys.
All three are on new contracts which are probably guaranteed (maybe not Villy’s).
What’s wrong with Vargas… you don’t think he’s worth $900K?
I don't think h's worth th rostr slot
that bush could hav
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 12, 2010 4:11 PM CST up reply actions
Not worth a roster spot?
Are you looking at it from the perspective that Bush is more valuable than Vargas because of his ability to start?
I think the argument could be made that Vargas is a better relief pitcher than Bush… or at least Vargas has proven that he can be very effective out of the bullpen (Bush has very limited relief appearances).
Assuming that Bush would be kept as a reliever, it seems that Vargas is a better value.
Don’t need to trade or cut anybody.
Gallardo
Wolf
Davis
Parra
Bush
Hoffman
Coffey
Hawkins
Vargas
Suppan
Narveson
Stetter
Villanueva – optioned to AAA
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
He has at least one option year left
Brewerfan.net says he has two, but he was optioned in 2006 and 2007.
Stetter has options as well.
With one of Narveson or Parra likely in the bullpen he could be optioned down as well. That would leave a spot for Schoenweis or somebody else. What I have above is what I would do. There is probably about a 100% chance a starter gets hurt and whoever goes to the pen will get some starts. Likely that in my configuration Suppan and Narveson plus somebody else would get at least some starts.
I hope we have some minor leaguers step up and pitch well in AA or above this year.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Every team used at least 7 starters last year.
Most teams used at least 9. Probably find a team that used fewer than 7 starters if I looked further back than just last year, but this at least gives a rough idea of how many starters get used.
Starters/Teams
7/1
8/1
9/7
10/4
11/5
12/9
14/2
15/1
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I am shocked
anybody made it through a season with only five in the last decade. Thanks for the link/info.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Just finished the Posnanski piece
Dang. That guy might be the best sportswriter in America right now.
I can’t really think of anyone else who is even all that close. He puts up long blog posts almost daily that are all of a similar high quality. Few can write like he does, none are nearly as prolific.
Yup
I think Gary Smith’s stuff is as good as Posnanski’s features (and Smith’s been writing at the level for at least two decades), but he only does four pieces a year for SI. Posnanski does all that long-form stuff and is one of the best bloggers on the web.
by Cheeseandcorn on Mar 12, 2010 12:54 PM CST up reply actions
Narvey's Restaurant
TheJay and I ate there about 15 years ago. It was at the intersection of highways 18 and 151, near the Hardees’s.
I remember reading an ad for the Dodgeville Hardee’s. It stated,“Located one block north of Iowa county’s only stoplight.”
Carlos Gomez tinkering
Jeff makes a good case about leaving Carlos alone and just teaching him to hit the ball solid. But the things that stands out to me is that he bats.418 when bunting.
It reminds me of this freakish Alcides Escobar stat: In the minors, Excobar was 37 of 49 on bunt attempts for a staggering .755 OBP. Granted minors aren’t the majors, but maybe Gomez and Escobar should bunt more.
I think there might be a bit of misinterpretation going on there in the McCalvy article.
I think they’re trying to focus on keeping Gomez’s swing level. I don’t think they’re going to have him taking downercuts and only hitting it on the ground. Jeff alluded to it in his piece. I don’t think they’re trying to discourage him from putting the ball in the air, they just don’t want him hitting fly balls. There’s a big difference between line drives and fly balls… especially with Gomez. You’re right, though. If he’s gonna be solely a groundball hitter, that’s probably not a good thing.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Should definitely be used occasionally.
Probably slightly more than they are doing. I just remember watching Brett Butler growing up, and laughing because the infield knew it was coming and couldn’t stop him…I’d love to experience that again with these guys.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
It's even more funny to watch the 3rd baseman creep in
and watch a dumpy fly ball go over his head or a screamer just right of 3rd base go right past him when he decides to swing instead.
is that bunt OBP
considering sacrifice attempts as well (as in, those are still plate appearances so still “count”)
I’m assuming based on the way you phrase it does, but i just wanted to check.
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 12, 2010 11:28 AM CST up reply actions
The Hurricane
With apologies to Bob Dylan (and Ruben Carter)
Ahem
Here comes the story of the Hurricane
The man the Moustache came to blame
For something that he never done
Put him on waivers but one time he coulda been
The champion of the world.
Hernan could slap a single with just one punch
But he never could play shortstop all that much
It’s my work he’d say and I do it for pay
And when it’s over I’ll go on my way -
Back to AAA
All of Hernan’s cards were marked in advance
Spring training was a pig-circus he never had a chance
The Moustache’s scouts were drunkards from the slums
To Kenny who watched he was a one-trick bum
And DM said he couldn’t do the deed
And the front office jury agreed.
Hernan Iribarren was falsely tried
The crime was lack of versatility — guess who testified
Inglett and Heether and they both baldly lied
And the newspapers they all went along for the ride
That’s the story of the Hurricane
But it won’t be over till he clears his name
And give him back the time he’s done
Put him on waivers but one time he coulda been
The champion of the world.
by infield fly on Mar 12, 2010 11:33 AM CST reply actions 7 recs
You callin' Heether a liar?
Don’t let roguejim see this.
by Cheeseandcorn on Mar 12, 2010 1:00 PM CST up reply actions
Time to drum up some Narveson nicknames.
Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 12, 2010 12:05 PM CST reply actions
A play on Andrew Bernard from the Office...
The Narv-dog.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
by Yar Nivek on Mar 12, 2010 12:07 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
How about Narva? Like Farva?
Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 12, 2010 1:46 PM CST up reply actions
I will stand by son of Narve.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Bill Hall gets national coverage
Just read in ESPN the magazine the Player X article. In it he talks about how Bill Hall was partying the spring training after hi monster year and thet people were saying he was going to have a down year because of it.
I wouldv’e put this in a fanshot but ESPN doesn’t have a link to the new mag up yet.
What about three down years?
He must have been doing a lot of partying, either way. I have a hard time believing that plenty of players don’t go out at least occasionally during spring training.
I can't blame the
guy for living it up. I can imagine what I’d be doing if I was in their shoes.
"I held it like and egg...? I know he scrambled the son of a bitch!"
I would be watching tape and respecting the game!
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Is Lorenzo Cain a RF or CF prospect?
If it’s CF, then the Hardy trade looks even worse if he has a bounce back season.
If RF, this is probably Hart’s last season in Milwaukee. Hart might not make it through the season if Cain has a spectacular April and May.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Mar 12, 2010 12:53 PM CST reply actions
He’s played CF in the minors a bit, but his defense is not spectacular. I think he projects to be a corner outfielder.
Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 12, 2010 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
I dont think it matters either way
Because he is most likely a 4th OF type of player.
I never felt he was CF material, but the organization wanted to try him there. I think a lot of it had to do with the fact that he had some speed but only gap type power, and they didnt want to waste the speed, or sacrifice the power, on a corner OF.
Jeff makes me sad
I sure hope the Brewers are nuanced enough to know how to use the numbers to Gomez’ advantage. I’m skeptical. Maybe they were just trying to get the message across without burying him in “expected run” totals. I’m glad they’re interested in using numbers, but a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
I really hope there's a bit of misinterpretation somewhere.
I’d like to think the Brewers are hoping to see him reduce his fly balls, rather than increase his ground balls.
Career batting average by batted ball type…
Ground Balls – .268 (306 put in play)
Line Drives – .631 (123 put in play)
Fly Balls – .195 (261 put in play)
Bunts – .446 (102 put in play, 10 of which were sacrifices)
Why would the stats guy give those numbers if he didn’t realize how important line drives are?
I will agree with a point Jeff made about Gomez’s extra base hits. They are not as important for him because of his ability to swipe bases. Sure, it increases the chance of him grounding into a double play, but he has proven that he’s incredibly successful at avoiding DPs. Last season, he hit 104 grounders, and had just 1 GIDP. In 2007, he hit 163 grounders with just 7 GIDP.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
quotation failure
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
57 | 46 | .553 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
56 | 46 | .549 | 0.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
48 | 55 | .466 | 9 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
46 | 56 | .450 | 10.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
42 | 59 | .415 | 14 | Won 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
36 | 65 | .356 | 20 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.30.2010 at 4:51 AM CDT)
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