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Wednesday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while bobbing your head.

It could be an interesting matchup in the desert today, as Doug Davis is scheduled to face off against Aroldis Chapman and the Reds this afternoon. Depending on who plays for the Brewers, their right-handed regulars could pose an interesting challenge for the Cuban lefty, whose fastball has been reported at around 100 mph.

Chuck Lofgren has pitched four scoreless innings this spring, and Brewer fans might get to see him pitch some more after all: the team has agreed to send reliever Omar Aguilar to the Indians in exchange for the right to keep their Rule 5 selection (FanShot). Lofgren was sent to minor league camp yesterday but could still be called over for games if the Brewer bullpen is shorthanded.

However, we've probably seen the last of John Halama. After the veteran lefty allowed ten hits and four earned runs in his first four Cactus League outings, the Brewers released him yesterday.

The outlook is slightly more optimistic for Chris Capuano, but not much. He's been shut down with elbow inflammation, and the team isn't sure when he'll pitch again. He told Adam McCalvy that he'll try throwing again in a few days, though, so all hope is not lost (FanShot).

While Chris Narveson was leading the Brewers to victory yesterday over the Royals, Randy Wolf and Mitch Stetter pitched in minor league camp to get their work in. In an effort to keep all seven rotation candidates on schedule, the team is working on scheduling B games over the coming week. Dave Bush will pitch in one such game against the Rangers on Thursday (at 2:30 in Surprise), and they're hoping to schedule another one for Saturday to allow both Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson to work on the same day again.

Elsewhere in camp minutiae:

At least Jeff Suppan's contract situation is giving you an opportunity to teach your kids something about economics: In-Between Hops uses Jeff Suppan to explain the definition of a sunk cost.

In the comments of yesterday's Mug there was an extended conversation about the role the 2009 Brewer defense might have played in Manny Parra's disastrous season. As a continuation of that conversation I present this: Bernie's Crew makes the case that Brewer pitchers who can keep the ball on the ground (and out of the outfield) will be key to the Brewers' success this season.

If you had to handicap the field right now, George Kottaras might be the favorite to win the backup catcher job, hitting .333/.409/.667 (compared to Matt Treanor's .235/.278/.294) in his first eight Cactus League games. If Kottaras doesn't make the team, though, he could be an interesting candidate for someone else: Royals Review has him on their list of Out of Options Players to Watch.

Around the minors:

  • Larry Stone of the Seattle Times has a look at Brett Lawrie's relationship with his sister Danielle, one of the nation's best softball players.
  • Chad Anderson has an interview with Huntsville manager Mike Guerrero, who will manage the Stars this season for the first time after being Manager of the Year in the Florida State League last season.

Brewer broadcaster Brian Anderson continues to be in high demand: TBS announced yesterday that Anderson will be the play by play voice of several of their national broadcasts this season, although the Brewers say a deal to allow Anderson to leave the team for those games is not yet finalized.

If you're planning on heading out to Miller Park for the opening series against the Rockies but haven't picked up your ticket yet, you might be interested in the Brewers' St. Patrick's Day deal, with select tickets available for $3.17.

In predictions/projections and other leftovers:

  • The FanGraphs community projections give the Brewers an 11% shot at winning the NL Central and a 16% chance at the playoffs.
  • Dueling Couches predicts the Brewers will win 75 games.
  • The Baseball Analysts has a series of charts and graphs showing the Franchise Strength Index history for all 30 teams. Despite the 2008 playoff appearance and 3 million fans in attendance each of the last two seasons, the Brewers are still in roughly the middle of the road.

Around baseball:

Dodgers: Reliever Cory Wade will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his pitching shoulder and will be out for at least a couple of months.
Giants: Returned Rule 5 pick Steve Johnson to the Orioles.
Marlins: Released Derrick Turnbow.
Nationals: Released outfielder Elijah Dukes. (thanks FtJ for the tip)

Today's former Brewer roundup has bad news for several pitchers:

  • Derrick Turnbow left yesterday's Marlins game with pain in his shoulder, ending his comeback bid. It's been reported in other places (FanShot) that Turnbow is retiring, but as of last night he hadn't made it official. The fact that the Marlins released him this morning will make his comeback a little harder, though.
  • The Florence Times Daily caught up with David Weathers, who is enjoying spending more time with his family and says it's possible he'll retire if the right mid-season offer doesn't come along. (h/t John Fay)
  • I recently mentioned that Tomo Ohka was in camp with a Mexican team this spring. He's since been released. (h/t MLBTR)

If you're in Arizona this morning and feel a sudden breeze, it might be a sigh of relief coming from White Sox camp: Jake Peavy avoided serious injury but totaled his car in an accident Monday afternoon.

Also taking a deep breath today: The Washington Nationals. After starting the spring 0-11, the Nationals doubled their odds by playing two split-squad games yesterday, and won them both.

Happy birthday today to likely 2010 Nashville Sound A.J. Murray, who turns 28.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you'd like to go vote for me over at Last Fan Standing. I've submitted a post there but don't see it yet: Hopefully it will appear soon.

Speaking of the tournament, there's still time to sign up for the Brew Crew Ball Bracket pool, if you haven't yet.

Drink up.

0 recs  |  Comment 96 comments |

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Tuesday's Frosty Mug

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Brewers 8, Nationals 3

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Comments

Display:

Dukes

What’d he do now?

Shruggity

by Mykenk on Mar 17, 2010 9:37 AM CDT reply actions  

"Strictly a baseball decision"?

I find that extremely hard to believe.

Shruggity

by Mykenk on Mar 17, 2010 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

He was making ~$400K

He is 25. He wasn’t good last year… but still….

Weird.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 17, 2010 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

and it’s not like he’s terrible, and it’s not like he was out of options and had zero trade value…

very weird.

Shruggity

by Mykenk on Mar 17, 2010 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

He must have had a video game to finish

that is really the only sensible explanation.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 17, 2010 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

Go with the simplest explanation

It’s the Nationals, and they have no idea what they are doing.

The Wizards must be thrilled that they aren’t the worst run professional sports organization in DC any longer.

When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved

by Getting Yosted on Mar 17, 2010 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

I would be alright with the Brewers picking him up.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Mar 17, 2010 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

Couldnt agree more

If he could put it all together, he could easily become the 2nd best outfielder on the team. Could give leverage to trade Hart away if he played decently. Big If though.

by backtocali on Mar 17, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

They are the Nats, though.

They might actually believe they released him for baseball reasons.

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Mar 17, 2010 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

My thought:

They released him for non-baseball reasons, and when the press got ahold of it:

“Um, why’d you release Dukes??”

Management: “durrrrr…. BASEBALL!!… [drools]”

Shruggity

by Mykenk on Mar 17, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

Here's what I heard

It’s a culmination of everything. He was showing up at ST at 9:15 for 9:30 stretching. He has 6 kids by 5 different women in 4 states. After child support and lawyers fees, he would only have 10K to his name after getting his check which is really low apparently.

Story I heard from Mike Bascik on air today (former MLB pitcher and the guy who gave up Bonds’ 756th) was that he would be just fine walking into the parking lot, and his phone would ring, and he would just start screaming explitives left and right into the phone. Bascik also said that he was the only player he ever feared hunting him down and killing him.

Apparently it’s not a good fit with the nats.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Mar 17, 2010 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

6 kids with 5 women in 4 states?

that’s dedication.

"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin

by sowingwildoats on Mar 17, 2010 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

which nation? the continent you mean?

“Larry Stone of the Seattle Times has a look at Brett Lawrie’s relationship with his sister Danielle, one of the nation’s best softball players.”

by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 17, 2010 9:39 AM CDT reply actions  

She plays collegiately for Washington

So yeah, I’m assuming he meant the US.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 17, 2010 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

She goes to college in the US

but plays for the Canadian Olympic team.

by sjlee on Mar 17, 2010 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

every 4 years..

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Mar 17, 2010 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Right.

So, back to Pags post… she could be considered one of the best softball players in the continent.

by sjlee on Mar 17, 2010 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

queen of maple syrup.

brunette > blond

"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin

by sowingwildoats on Mar 17, 2010 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not always, but usually.

Especially in this case. She looks friendly as a Brunette, and I think because of the eyes and smile, looks stoned or stupid in the Blonde pic.

Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.

by Yar Nivek on Mar 17, 2010 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Last Fan Standing

Looks like you can find the article here: http://lastfanstanding2010.com/articles/author/kyle-lobner/

How exactly do they plan on making that a fair vote? The presentation seems tough…

==
Check out Wezen-Ball.com

by lar on Mar 17, 2010 9:46 AM CDT reply actions  

NCAA expansion

Instead of expanding, they should just drop the small conference auto-bids. Then the entire Big East and other premium conferences can fill out the tourney field, as would happen in a 96 team tourney, and no small schools (except for really good ones) would be there to clutter things up. If people still watch (and they’ll still watch), they won’t have to bother with expansion.

Let the would-be auto-bids duke it out in the NIT. It’s not like they’re the ones bringing in money after all.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 17, 2010 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

They don't bring in ticket buyers, perhaps

But they do tend to provide one of the tournament’s most compelling storylines.

If given the choice, I’d fill the extra spots by giving every conference two auto-bids.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 17, 2010 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

I would guess

That if that were the case, a lot of small conferences would hold their reg. season champ out of the tournament, to ensure they get two teams in.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 17, 2010 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't.

If a team wins both the conference and tourney they are bound to get a better seeding. I don’t think a conference would keep their big dog out of the tourney. The school still wants to win their conference tourney for their own recruiting needs.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 17, 2010 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

If it's between storylines and money

Forget the storylines. No one’s going to remember the #12-16 seeds that lose anyway.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 17, 2010 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

But they'll tune in to watch them while they're in play.

TV ratings matter a lot. Probably much more than ticket sales.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 17, 2010 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think the 1-5 seeds bring in a lot of that viewership

As does the whole “it’s the tourney and this is the game that’s on” idea. Unless it’s a close game, no one’s watching to see Robert Morris lose to Villanova because the Colonials got into the tourney in dramatic fashion. And if it’s a close game, does it really matter who the teams are?

I’m sure they’ll expand to 96 teams and every bubble commentator will throw a hissy fit because their job got a lot less compelling, but fans at large will be just as happy tuning in March 15 next year rather than March 17.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 17, 2010 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

People remember Villanova and NC State. Storylines have value.

Hell — People remember the Princeton team that almost beat G-town and Mourning.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 17, 2010 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

What about Winthrop and Bucknell and Vermont?

Does anyone remember them making the tourney or making it to the second round?

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 17, 2010 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

I certainly remember Bucknell, and VT beating Syracuse.

I also remember watching Richmond beat Syracuse and Billy Owens. I remember Santa Clara beating AZ. and also AZ losing to ETSU.

Another great story line was Danny Manning single-handedly winning the NCAA tourney as a 6 seed.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 17, 2010 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

I also remember Purdue almost losing as a 1 seed

and Mich St. getting taken to overtime as a 1.

Honestly I remember the #12-16s that made noise more than the a lot of the Elite Eight- Final Four games…. but that’s just me.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 17, 2010 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

With an expanded tournament

There is a good chance that Bucknell, Richmond, Santa Clara gets knocked off by a mediocre Big Ten/power conference team that only gets in the tournament because they expanded the field and never gets to play that game against Kansas or ’Cuse.

The top seeds would play the teams ranked #80-#96 in the first round, either really bad power conference teams the team that finished second to Bucknell/Richmond etc in their conference tournament.

I think mid major upsets might actually go down with the inclusion of many more big conference teams. You would get more upsets, but it will be stuff like #70 Illinois beating a #3 Pittsburgh team in round one.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Mar 17, 2010 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

My list of memorables:

UWGB beating Jason Kidd and Cal
Coppin St ruining my bracket by beating South Carolina in the first round.
Hampton beating Iowa St (which you can still use to enfuriate any ISU fan)
Harold “The Show” Arceneaux and Weber St.

Also worth noting: these “cinderella” performances can, in the right circumstances, launch a program into the national scene. Gonzaga was a nobody and the WCC was a one-bid league a decade ago. Now it’s one of the nation’s best-known programs.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 17, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

I would put George Mason in that lineup

A notable portion of the audience is those in college or just out of college and “Villanova and NC State” mean very little to them.

by ecocd on Mar 17, 2010 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

But at the time...

When Nova beat G-town and Ewing — people were tuning in to see if Nova could upset them.

Certainly some of the Cinderella teams get their asses handed to them — but it is something the NCAA uses to gain viewership up until that time.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 17, 2010 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

At the end of the day...

I just don’t buy into the idea that expanding to 96 teams is going to “water down” the product at all. I am still going to fill out my brackets, and watch whatever game CBS (or whoever) is showing at the time.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 17, 2010 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

People just love watching the NCAA tourney. More teams mean a bigger bracket to fill out and more games to watch… that’s all.

by sjlee on Mar 17, 2010 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

There's no reason to expand it.

By allowing conference tournament champs to get in, the tournament essentially begins when the conference tourneys start.

Take UWM for example. they could have won a National championship. They would have had to win two more games in the Horizon League tournament, and then 6 at a neutral location.

Essentially, every single team already has a chance, starting in March. They just need to win roughly 10 games.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Mar 17, 2010 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

when i say no reason, i'm ignoring money.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Mar 17, 2010 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

And that's why you'll never get to be President of the NCAA.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 17, 2010 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

I was trying to give a fan's perspective.

I honestly think that from the NCAA’s perspective, you need to use the If it’s not broke, don’t fix it mentality here. Why fudge with one of the most popular sporting events in the world? I don’t think filling out a bracket with another 32 teams will be as fun, and I think the later rounds will seem more dragged out than they already are.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Mar 17, 2010 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

In Lifetime's favor...

They’ve started showing “how i met your mother”.

Then again, it does focus on a hopelessly romantic bachelor looking for love, with a side story of a guy who has spent most of his life trying to have as many one night stands as possible. So maybe it isn’t all that much of a stretch for them.

Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.

by Yar Nivek on Mar 17, 2010 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

No idea

But I think they do plan on paring the field down to 16 by the Sweet 16, by luck of the draw. Each entrant gets a team, and the sixteen entrants with teams that advance stay on.

I drew West Virginia, so I like my chances (but can’t stand my team).

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 17, 2010 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions  

George Kottaras

I was under the impression that it was his spot to lose. Unless he has some major collapse over the next two weeks (certainly possible, I admit), I’d think he’s just about locked up the back-up catcher role.

We all still have the excitement of waiting for resolution on the choice of keeping Dave Bush and his $3.5 million (additional) pricetag over the next two weeks.

by ecocd on Mar 17, 2010 10:22 AM CDT reply actions  

Please, please, please Brewers...

swallow your pride and kick Suppans old useless Ass to the curb

Go Beer, I mean Bucks

by Take Back Our Bucks on Mar 17, 2010 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

what are your thoughts

on Soup?

Q: Did you ever scout Corey Hart? What seems to be holding him back from being a good hitter for AVG?

A: The slider away. And that facial hair.

-Keith Law ESPN chat 2/11/10

by molitorfan on Mar 18, 2010 6:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

My thoughts are...

… he’s not very good, everyone knows that, everyone knows the team would most likely be better off without him, so there’s not really much more to be said… Seeing “let’s dump soup” posts every day just gets a little repetitive. We know everyone’s opinion, so unless you’re gonna provide more or new information, we really don’t need to read the same thing over, and over, and over again…

Those are my thoughts.

Shruggity

by Mykenk on Mar 18, 2010 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

Unless

you want to picture Suppan as the dead horse… I can’t really stop you from doing that…

Shruggity

by Mykenk on Mar 18, 2010 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

Ecocd- that was my assumption as well

Kottaras is younger and has more potential that Treanor. I don’t think the Brewers ever wanted to start Lucroy with the MLB team.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Mar 17, 2010 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Question:

Given the following, why are the Brewers predicted to finish worse than last year?

Cardinals have not changed significantly.
Brewers improved their rotation, and offense/defense should be roughly the same.
Cubs got worse.
Reds didn’t improve much…they’re always the trendy dark horse pick and never make good on that.

Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.

by Yar Nivek on Mar 17, 2010 1:27 PM CDT reply actions  

To be fair, our offense will drop off some

Solely due to the change from Cameron to Gomez. And McGehee probably won’t hit as well as last year.

And the Reds are going to be getting Jay Bruce back for the whole season, which should help.

by NoahJ on Mar 17, 2010 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I think the team declines by about 2 games offensively and improved about 5 pitching. I;m going to have them down for an 83 win year I think. I cant quite figure out if I shold be adding to actual win total or Pythagorean win total, if thats the case, theres your explanation. Using my numbers it makes them a 89 win team. A lot of these projections are labeled true talent, and good and bad luck goes with every team all year long. Brewers were 6 games lucky last year according to pythagoreas, Reds unlucky, Cards lucky by about 3 games, etc.

Actually I am seeing that true talent wise, the Cubs seem lined up with the best talent. Problem is that the division is tightly packed with the top 4. Cubs and Reds have across the board solid pitching rotations while the Brewers have a big drop off after #2, Cards same thing but a higher base. Brewers have the best offense of the bunch.

by backtocali on Mar 17, 2010 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Whoah.
Using my numbers it makes them a 89 win team.

Honestly, I would never have expected those words to ever come off your keyboard.

by NoahJ on Mar 17, 2010 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Actually that was a typo

79 is what it should have been.

If my theory holds, and they are 3 wins better than this year it should be either 3 wins better than actual which would be 83 or 3 wins better than Pythagorean, which would be 79. I was just stating that a lot of the people projecting Brewer wins in the upper 70s could be using this thinking. I am pretty sure I am going to stick with my 83 number.

by backtocali on Mar 17, 2010 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Even if McGehee doesn't hit as well as last year

we should see more production from RF as Corey Hart should at no worse than last year and maybe Edmonds getting AB’s against righties would help. We also also (hopefully) will be getting a full year from Weeks which is an improvement at 2B. And this is before we figure in the upgrade at catcher, all of which I would have to think makes up for downgrades from CF and 3B offensively.

I would also expect the defense to be improved as Gomez is an upgrade in center, McGehee healthy is an upgrade over McGehee hurt, and Escobar is an upgrade over Hardy.

And the pitching is going to be vastly improved. I just don’t understand why the Brewers are projected for so many losses this year.

by dtmeyers on Mar 17, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Changes

I don’t know if we can say that a full season of Weeks will be an improvement than Counsell/Lopez (offensively or defensively). Weeks was having a career season at the plate when he got hurt. Hard to say if he would’ve been able to keep up that pace for a full season. On the defensive side, I think you lose something with Weeks.

Starting pitching will definitely be improved, but “vastly” might be a bit exaggerated. I’m going with the assumption that the rotation is going to be as follows:

Gallardo
Wolf
Davis
Suppan
Parra

Suppan will likely decline even further, which will probably offset any improvement by Parra. Davis is probably good for the same number of wins as Looper, so that’s a wash.

Now if Suppan is replaced by Bush or even Narveson, then I think the term “vastly” starts being applicable.

The bullpen could be interesting. Losing DiFelice is a pretty big blow. Hawkins should be able to pick up most of the slack. I think the biggest concern is Hoffman. He had a great season last year, but at 42, I don’t think some decline would be surprising.

by sjlee on Mar 17, 2010 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Davis being credited with the same number of wins as Looper means hes not a massive upgrade? That doesn’t seem to make sense – Looper had some of the best run support in the NL disguising his inability to pitch like a major leaguer, which is just the beginning as to why pitcher wins are useless as a measurement of how good/productive a pitcher is.

I say vastly improved because Looper isn’t there, Suppan will hopefully only see limited starts or some level of improvement, and Wolf and Davis are substantial upgrades over everyone we had last year not named Yovani.

I also don’t think a decline from Hoffman would be necessarily related to age – he had a career year at 41 last year – but the division getting to see him again. His first season in a new division probably helped him keep his numbers pristine last year and that effect will likely no longer exist. Either way, assuming Gallardo/Davis/Wolf can get deeper into games than our starters last year, the bullpen should be fine.

by dtmeyers on Mar 17, 2010 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not saying that Davis isn't an upgrade over Looper

My post was centered on the following statement:

And the pitching is going to be vastly improved. I just don’t understand why the Brewers are projected for so many losses this year.

I’m saying that you cannot expect Davis to win more games than Looper, which means that the net impact from having Davis instead of Looper will not change the number of wins the team has this season.

Also, unless I see otherwise, if Suppan is in the rotation, we’ll (unfortunately) see him pitch every 5th game.

by sjlee on Mar 17, 2010 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

and I mostly agree with your take on Weeks

but I’m more hopeful he can continue improving defensively and perform up to the (admittedly lofty) expectations offensively

by dtmeyers on Mar 17, 2010 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

I disagree on Weeks.

He is my favorite player but I have a hard time thinking he will match the production we got at 2B last year. .303/.377/.474/.851 was our 2B production. We also got a +14 runs UZR there. I don’t think Weeks will have much over a +5 runs UZR at 2B.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Mar 17, 2010 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's a .371 wOBA

for those scoring at home. 2nd in all of baseball to the Phillies.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Mar 17, 2010 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

in addition to sj's weeks comment

Is Gomez really an upgrade in center, or just a cheaper-option-about-the-same. My impression was Cam was considered elite out there.

by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 17, 2010 8:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Think Cam in a 23 year old's body.

From everything I’ve seen of Gomez, it’s like taking Cameron’s smoothness away and replacing it with explosiveness. I think he’ll be like Cam was for the last two years, but he’ll be able to track down more gap shots.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Mar 17, 2010 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

Right.

Plus, he’ll likely get better with more experience.

by sjlee on Mar 18, 2010 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I was just in the middle of typing that exact same thing.

If nothing else, the Cardinals haven’t gotten worse, which means that they are the favorite to win the division.

I don’t think the Cubs have gotten worse. I look at it as additional through subtraction. They got rid of Milton Bradley and Kevin Gregg, so they won’t have to worry about playing either of them regularly. Soto and Ramirez missed significant playing time last season due to injuries, so having them back 100% only makes them better. Gorzelanny should be good enough to at least cover the 9 wins Harden had.

by sjlee on Mar 17, 2010 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah but what about that contract albatross they picked up in silva?

"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin

by sowingwildoats on Mar 17, 2010 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Silva

I don’t think they expect much out of Silva. Once Lilly is back into the rotation, I don’t think Silva will get many starts. In the meantime, they have other options (e.g. Marshall) for fill that 5th spot.

by sjlee on Mar 17, 2010 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

right, but given what we understand about irrational human nature with sunk costs

if we can make the same argument for suppan, shouldn’t the cubs make the same argument for silva?

"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin

by sowingwildoats on Mar 17, 2010 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly.

Plus, the Cubs are only on the hook for $7.25M of Silva’s salary this year.

by sjlee on Mar 17, 2010 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

I understand that the Cardinals are the favorites to win the division. My point about them being roughly the same is to say that we can’t assume an extra 4-5 losses to them this season because of a vast improvement.

Similarly the Cubs and Reds are not so improved as to unbalance the meetings and lead to additional Brewers losses. Yes, teams outside the division matter, but with an unbalanced schedule, the division is the key to analysis. Baseball is a zero-sum game…for every win there is a loss.

What I don’t understand is why we’re projected to be 5-6 games worse, although the comment about Pythagorean record does help explain that a little. Since I have only seen the links saying “Brewers projected for 75 wins” and not seen the whole list, what teams are expected to improve at our expense?

Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.

by Yar Nivek on Mar 17, 2010 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Cubs have better talent than we do.

The reason we are close to them is they have a lot of injury risk and old players due for decline.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Mar 17, 2010 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

But there will be

Probably some regression from Pujols, Wainwright and Carpenter. And after Carpenter, they have a huge drop off in the pitching staff. Piniero was a 4 WAR pitcher last year. And Molina and Ryan both should have a bit of progression, all while still having good years.

I think I will actually have the Cards finishing 3rd this year at about 83 wins behind the Cubs and or Reds.

by backtocali on Mar 17, 2010 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Holliday is a very good hitter.

But it’s probably unlikely that he’ll hit as well as he did with St. Louis last season. My guess is probably somewhere around a .950 OPS.

Which is obviously still really good.

by NoahJ on Mar 17, 2010 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

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