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Wednesday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while making your opinion clear.

Today is the Brewers' only Cactus League off day, and while previous reports had said Manny Parra would work in a minor league game today to stay on schedule, those plans have been scrapped and Parra will pitch in relief of Jeff Suppan tomorrow. Because Suppan and Parra will probably take up most of the innings in tomorrow's game, the Brewers will also play a simulated game to get some work for LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey and Mitch Stetter.

We're at the point in spring training where managers start working to line up their rotation for the start of the regular season. Because of that, the decision to pitch Parra and Suppan on the same day tomorrow is somewhat curious, and could mean that only one of them will end up in the rotation. Or, it could simply be the result of a gap in the schedule.

Either way, Scott Schoeneweis won't be claiming one of the final spots in the pitching staff. Schoeneweis was informed yesterday that he wasn't going to make the team, and decided to leave camp rather than take an assignment to AAA (FanShot). Schoeneweis told Adam McCalvy he wasted a month of his time in Brewer camp and seems to think the Brewers released him because his wife died last season.

Certainly, the way Schoeneweis left camp yesterday and his decision to blame his wife's death instead of his relatively poor performance for the setback paints him in a somewhat negative light. With that said, I'm inclined to cut the guy some slack because he's been through an awful lot: On top of losing his wife last season, Adam McCalvy noted that Schoeneweis is also a testicular cancer survivor and has had Tommy John surgery.

Also before yesterday's game, the Brewers returned Tim Dillard to minor league camp. Dillard has generated a fair amount of positive attention this spring with his willingness to attempt a change in his delivery and the relative ease with which he's done so. After being removed from the 40 man roster before camp opened, Dillard has had a nice bounce-back spring and could be relatively high on the list of pitchers to call up this season.

John Axford allowed a run in the seventh inning yesterday, and it turned out to be his final appearance as a member of big league camp. Axford was optioned to the minors after the game. He seems to have impressed Ken Macha, who compared his stuff to that of longtime Angels closer Troy Percival. Axford will probably also be under consideration for an opportunity if a spot should open up during the season.

The Axford demotion was actually a bit of a letdown: Before the game, Anthony Witrado said the team was expected to make another roster move after the game, and "it could be the kind that upsets a player." That led to a fair amount of speculation in the comments of the Schoeneweis FanShot linked above, but turned out to be a false lead. At least it provided some content for a banner day for @notkenmacha.

Elsewhere in camp minutiae:

  • Tom Haudricourt and View From Bernie's Chalet both have new 25 man roster projections. Haudricourt has the Brewers optioning Carlos Villanueva to keep all four remaining starting candidates, while VFBC has the Brewers releasing Jeff Suppan.
  • Cory Provus likes the fact that the battle for the final spots in the rotation has become a tough decision.
  • The LA Daily News has a look at the Brewers' connections to the San Fernando Valley, with Ryan Braun, Randy Wolf, Gregg Zaun and Jeff Suppan all hailing from the area.
  • Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks has some things you might not know about George Kottaras.

Speaking of Kottaras, his hot spring made him the big mover in our second Brew Crew Ball Tracking Poll. 77% of voters thought Kottaras should be Gregg Zaun's backup this season, up from 27% in our last poll.

At The Hardball Times, Derek Ambrosino has a look at seven players that might have been underrated this spring, including Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart. He concludes that "it also seems increasingly likely that he (Weeks) is just not durable enough to be trusted to play anything approaching a full season," and compares Hart to Nate McLouth.

I don't have any minor notes today, but here's a draft note: Andy Seiler has a new mock draft, and has the Brewers selecting LSU righty Anthony Ranaudo with the 14th pick. Injury questions have dropped Ranaudo's stock a bit: He was projected to go #4 in the last draft.

In previews/projections etc:

When the Brewers signed Matt Treanor to a minor league deal, they included a clause that allowed him to opt out if he wasn't on the major league roster after this week. That clause went with him when he was traded to the Rangers, but Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas says he's not expected to exercise it. (h/t MLBTR) By the way, The Grand National Championships has some analysis on the trade.

Today's slices of life from spring training:

  • Jim Street has a look at "Survivor Island," a row of lockers at the Mariners' spring training complex with an interesting history.
  • On the superstition front, Craig Calcaterra has a look at mylar bracelets that several Phillies are wearing this spring.
  • What do you get when two bored, trash-talking beat reporters, armed with some athletic ability and Twitter, decide to settle a dispute with a race? MLB.com's Anthony Dicomo and Jordan Bastian will square off today in The Dotcom Dash.

The season hasn't even started yet and the Brewers already have one victory over the Cubs: FanGraphs ranked the Cubs #18 in their annual organizational rankings. The Brewers and Cardinals are still on the board.

I know we've got at least a few physics nerds here: Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing is looking for your help with a new series on the science of baseball.

Here's an interesting story working its way around the web today: In the 116 year history of Goshen College, a Mennonite institution in Indiana, the Star Spangled Banner had never been played. But yesterday, in front of a small crowd of onlookers, it was played for the first time before a baseball game.

Happy birthday today to:

And a happy belated birthday to Johnny Logan, who turned 83 yesterday (h/t Lone Star Ball). Logan played shortstop for the Milwaukee Braves from 1953-1961 and was a four time All Star.

Oh, and here's what it might have looked like if Jerry Manuel had managed Michelangelo.

Also, today is also a Woot-off day.

Drink up.

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Competition between good pitching performances

At the beginning of Spring Training, I thought the final rotation spots would come down to a Less Bad Competition. It’s been nice to look at the relative performances and note that Brewers starters have had a pretty great spring. Small sample size aside, no one can complain about Gallardo, Wolf or Davis’ performances.

We’re all aware that Chris Narveson has been on fire, Bush has had solid performances and even Parra seems to be decent and far better than his 2009 campaign. Suppan, well, yeah. Suppan. No one expected him to be good and he hasn’t been good (I personally didn’t think he’d be this horrible).

I’m pleased as punch to see the Brewers choosing between good performances and not necessarily the least harmful choices.

by ecocd on Mar 24, 2010 10:18 AM CDT reply actions  

I'm also pleased with out the pitching staff has played this spring

and I saw this article from Jeff Sackman from a couple years ago (series of links from the Mug yesterday) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-good-is-your-4-starter/. I haven’t had the time yet, but I’d like to put together the numbers for last year and see how our rotation projects this year as well. It’s a real change to see how league average #5 starters actually perform and start thinking of Suppan as quality depth for the rotation.

by dtmeyers on Mar 24, 2010 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

You sunk my battleship

ERA 5.50-6.50 for #5 starters? I’d expect Suppan to be able to manage a 6.25 ERA, but it’s depressing to think that would be about league-average performance for a starting rotation guy.

More to the point of the article, however, is that there will be an injury in the pitching staff which necessarily means your #5 becomes a #4 for part of the season, which puts Suppan as needing to be a sub-5.00 ERA for the brewers to be considered a legitimate contender. I don’t really see that happening.

So putting Suppan in the starting rotation as a #5 (or #4 shudder) guy is, in essence making him a #4/#5 guy and he doesn’t fit the bill. Suppan fits pretty well as an average fill-in #5 guy.

by ecocd on Mar 24, 2010 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

I definitely agree that he is not good enough for the #4

or to start the season in the rotation, but as a swingman (#6 or #7 on the depth chart) its comforting to know that he is more than serviceable.

by dtmeyers on Mar 24, 2010 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

maybe more than serviceable is ambitious

but he would still represent quality depth as long as he didn’t start the year in the rotation

by dtmeyers on Mar 24, 2010 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

He couldn't be worse than the replacements we had last year

could he?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 24, 2010 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

it could be worse

it’s worse.

"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin

by sowingwildoats on Mar 24, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

it’s worse

"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin

by sowingwildoats on Mar 24, 2010 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Although

If you don’t mind a 6+ ERA, the major league bullpen will probably already have three guys with starting experience who can put up similar numbers (Narveson, Villanueva, Vargas)

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Mar 24, 2010 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

League average #5 starter is kind of a misnomer there

In that you’re really describing the average of all 30 teams’ worst 32 starts by each starter’s season ERA. So if the Brewers were lucky enough to get 130 starts from pitchers who put up an ERA better than Suppan’s, say, 5.50-6.00, then that’s great. Unfortunately, chances are they’ll need to bring up some guys and those 32 starts at a 5.50-6.00 ERA will turn out to be the 100-132nd best of the season rather than the 133-162nd. All of which goes to what Fatter than Joey posted the other day about how teams actually need 8-9 starters and another Mug link to a FanGraphs post that talked about 5th starters not really existing due to injuries, suckitude, etc.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 24, 2010 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

2009 breakdown of starters by rotation spot.

32 starts per spot. Dropped worst 1 or 2(Cubs and Pirates only played 161 games) starts by starter(s) with worst ERA.
NL
ERA/Innings per start
3.19/6.3
3.77/6.1
4.24/5.8
4.73/5.7
5.65/5.2

AL
ERA/Innings per start
3.27/6.4
3.98/6.2
4.47/5.9
5.08/5.5
6.47/5.1

MLB
ERA/Innings per start
3.23/6.4
3.87/6.2
4.34/5.9
4.89/5.6
6.03/5.2

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Mar 24, 2010 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

Questions

1. How did you figure out who was in rotation spot for each team? Did you simply look at the order of how the pitched (i.e. Opening Day starter = 1st, second game of the season = 2nd, etc.)? Who did you use as the #1 starter for the Brewers?

2. How did you account for personnel changes?

by sjlee on Mar 24, 2010 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

I put them in descending order by their ERA. I used only the splits for starters. I took 32 starts for each spot and dropped the last 1-2 starts per team. So for the Brewers as an example

player ERA/starts
Narveson 3.38/4
Gallardo 3.73/30
Looper 5.22/34
Suppan 5.29/30
Bush 6.27/21
Parra 6.36/27
Villanueva 6.52/6
Burns 6.86/8
McClung 12.27/2

For the #1 spot 4 starts of Narveson+28 starts of Gallardo
For the #2 spot 2 starts of Gallardo + 30 starts of Looper
For the #3 spot 4 starts of Looper + 28 starts of Suppan
For the #4 spot 2 starts of Suppan+21 starts of Bush+9 starts of Parra
For the #5 spot 18 starts Parra+ of 6 starts of Villavueva +8 starts of Burns
Dropped all of McClungs starts.
I used all of Narveson’s earned runs and all his innings + 28/30 of Gallardo’s runs and innings for the #1 spot. If you want a better explanation I can give one. Otherwise I have the whole thing for both leagues in Excel format.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Mar 24, 2010 8:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's pretty much similar to what Sackmann did in his THT article I believe.

Except I think he used ERA and I don’t think he used SP splits. That was a few years ago. They are readily available on the internet now and may not have been then.

I used 32 to make things simpler.(plus, again, Sackamann did) I really didn’t know where to add in the extra starts. Those are some really bad starts and would drag the #5 even further down. Besides, It is only to give a rough estimate or general idea what teams actually get out of a rotation spot on average.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Mar 24, 2010 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Honestly,

if somebody has a better idea I would love to see the results.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Mar 24, 2010 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know if that makes sense to me

I doubt it would change the results very much, but just because Narveson pitched well doesn’t mean he was the “#1,” that skews the ERA for the #5. Going by position on the starting pitching depth chart would seem to make more sense. For example, I don’t remember the exact situations in which Narveson pitched, but say you have a starting rotation of Gallardo/Looper/Parra/Bush/Suppan. If Bush gets hurt and Narveson has to fill in for him, he simply moves up the depth chart and into the #5 spot (so the depth chart becomes Gallardo/Looper/Parra/Suppan/Narveson).

Even if he does have the lowest ERA on the team, and even if he is pitching on the days the “#4” guy is supposed to start, the 3.38 ERA is still coming out of the fifth pitcher on the depth chart.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Mar 24, 2010 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

That would be really difficult to determine

How is the depth chart set? What if two (or more) pitchers are hurt or the team shuffles the rotation to “hide” the fill-in starter?

There are flaws with the quintiles approach, but it’s far simpler to calculate than guessing at each team’s rotation.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 24, 2010 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think it would be very difficult for a given team

But calculating it for the entire league would be rather time consuming.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Mar 24, 2010 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

It could be

since the depth chart can be difficult to determine and in some cases, the rotation order doesn’t always go from best pitcher to worst pitcher.

For instance, in your example you have the Brewers rotation for last season as:

Gallardo/Looper/Parra/Bush/Suppan

After Gallardo, it’s debatable how the rest of the ranking would go.

by sjlee on Mar 25, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

I see what you did...

Your “spots” indicate ERA ranking… not necessarily order in the rotation.

In other words, Suppan’s ERA is still “better” than the average 5th worst starter on any team in the NL.

by sjlee on Mar 25, 2010 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

I am not trying to defend Suppan as a good pitcher. Just trying to give some sort of perspective on just how bad the worst 32 starts are for each team. Even at a 5.50 ERA he would still be better than most teams get out of their 5th starter.

I think it breaks down that all but 6 teams in the NL got worse than a 5.40 ERA out of their 5th spot(worst 32 starts) One of those 6 was at 5.39 ERA. Look at how bad the AL 5th starters were.

Of course all that points out how over the top statements like “Suppan isn’t even good enough to be a 5th starter” are. That doesn’t necessarily mean he should be our 5th starter. We have to look at the players he is competing against for that spot. Even a pitcher who can only put up a 5.50 ERA has value to some team. He is just way overpaid.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Mar 25, 2010 11:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

No kidding

I think everyone is burnt out from the “excitement” yesterday.

Plus, I think Mykenk said he was going on vacation so that probably explains the lack of back and forth arguments that are entertaining for all.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Mar 24, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

You're wrong

/Mykenk impression

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Mar 24, 2010 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

hate this place. pout

Shruggity

by Mykenk on Mar 24, 2010 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around

Someone trying to emulate someone who’s not supposed to be here but is actually here having a near wordless conversation with his emulator.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 24, 2010 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I'm on vacation, I didn't say I was going anywhere... just not at work today...

Although I’ll be gone tomorrow thru Sunday, in case you want to organize your mockery a little better next time.

Shruggity

by Mykenk on Mar 24, 2010 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

Mockery?

Crap, sorry dude. I wasn’t going for mockery.

by Rubie Q on Mar 24, 2010 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ken Mockery.

Sounds like a Yostish nickname for Macha.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 24, 2010 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Same here, no harm intended — just having fun.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Mar 24, 2010 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hmm.

I wasn’t trying to imply mockery as a bad thing. Apologies for coming off like a 12 year old girl.

Shruggity

by Mykenk on Mar 24, 2010 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Are you going to buy the new Hannah Montana album?

If you’re not, maybe my mom will let me burn it for you.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 24, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Don't use Limewire

I hear they track that stuff.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 24, 2010 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know about those

I used to use Scour.net back in the day.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 24, 2010 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ha

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 24, 2010 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Schoeneweis

He never said the Brewers released him because his wife died—he attributed that to the reason that other teams with an opening for a lefty didn’t come calling. And who knows, he might be right about that. And he’s probably right that the Brewers never did have a major league spot for him. But he’s wrong that he wasted his time. Any time a big league teams gives you playing time in ST, you are potentially auditioning for all teams.

by Azor on Mar 24, 2010 11:10 AM CDT reply actions  

No attention from other teams

The reason he isn’t getting much attention from other teams is because his had a horrible 2009 season. Yes, I’m sure it was largely due to the death of his wife, but the fact remains that his pitching performance was bad. Who is to say that he’s now over it and is capable of being an effective reliever? If his pitching in ST is any indication, he has some work to do.

The fact that he’s continuing to bring up his wife’s death means that he still has some mental/emotional issues to work on before even considering coming back to MLB.

by sjlee on Mar 24, 2010 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I feel bad for the guy...

… and I wish him well elsewhere. But if he would have pitched better in spring training the decision would have been a lot harder to make, I’m sure. In the end, he just didn’t realize that he was competing with both the potential starters and the potential relievers, and when he finally did realize that, it was too late to do anything about it.

Obviously we don’t know what the Brewers told him before he signed, but my guess is that Melvin didn’t consider the possibility that he’d have to find a way to keep Suppan, Narveson, Parra and Bush on the 25 man roster when he made whatever promises he made to Schoeneweiss. There’s a decent argument that Melvin should have seen that as a possibility or even a likelihood (especially if he knew he wouldn’t cut Suppan no matter how bad he pitched in ST), but my gut reaction is that Melvin just didn’t think about anyone other than the likely bullpen candidates when he described the Brewers circumstances to Schoeneweiss before they cut a deal.

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Mar 24, 2010 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not really sure he has a right to be upset about who he was competing with, though.

If he could read any form of the handwriting on the wall, he would have known that he was coming in on a minor league contract, which by definition means he’d need to pass someone on the depth chart to make the team. The only guy ahead of him he could have reasonably passed is Suppan, and there’s a decent chance he won’t make the team either.

i’m guessing there’s at least one guy in every major league camp this spring who was only brought to camp on the off chance an injury or transaction would make room for him. I’m not sure asking him to go to AAA to prove he deserved an opportunity was too much to ask of him.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 24, 2010 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I think it depends on what he was told.

If he was told he was competing against a couple of players for the last bullpen spot, then he may have a right to be annoyed. If he wasn’t told that specifically, then I agree with you.

In the end, though, it sounds like he’s more upset about having to take a minor league deal in the first place.

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Mar 24, 2010 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

I agree.

I think his response would’ve been much different if he took a day to think about it.

by Rubie Q on Mar 24, 2010 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

He's just pissed off.

He thinks he has the stuff to be in the Major Leagues. More power to him, but don’t bash a baseball club because you don’t fit in their plans. . . .

by WarpedCore on Mar 24, 2010 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

openings for lefties

I’m not sure that there were any openings for lefties, or at least not the kind Schoeneweis may have wanted. As I said over in the original Schoeneweis thread, Alan Embree just signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox. Ron Mahay just signed a minor league contract with the Twins today, and he was with them last year. All the other situational LHP I know of who were free agents last year are signed on minor league contracts. Billy Wagner got a major league contract, but he’s not a situational reliever.

I’m kind of surprised that the Diamondbacks didn’t pick him up again after they traded Schlereth, but I guess Zavada’s enough LOOGY for them right now. Heck, Zavada’s their only ML-ready lefty, period. (Tangentially, I’m surprised Arizona didn’t try to get someone else’s discarded minor league LOOGY after Schoeneweis was put on the DL and instead called up Schlereth, simultaneously starting his service time clock and also likely giving his new team a 4th minor league option. That did the kid no favors whatsoever.)

by morineko on Mar 24, 2010 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Schlereth

If he hadn’t been called up and optioned down in 2009, wouldn’t he have run out of 3 options in the same time it will take him to run out of 4?

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 24, 2010 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

I didn't think so

He wasn’t signed to a major-league contract and IIRC he wasn’t on the 40-man before his callup (OK, it’s been a while, so I don’t know if I’m recalling correctly)

by morineko on Mar 24, 2010 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think you're right in that

But he was added and optioned for the first time in 2009. His second and third option years would be 2010 and 2011. 2011 would be his third or fourth pro season, depending on whether his 2008 is considered a full season (I would guess not as he signed too late to be on a pro roster for 90 days), so he’ll get a fourth option, used in 2012.

If he had not been called up in 2009 but was in 2010, his three options would have been used in 2010, 2011, and 2012. If 2008 is not considered a full season, 2012 is only his fourth full season and he would be tagged with a fourth option year (2013). If 2008 is considered a full season, his final option year is 2012 whether he was called up in 2009 or 2010.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 24, 2010 10:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

thanks

The rules make my head hurt. (And so does his pitching. Why do I get attached to pitchers with control issues?)

by morineko on Mar 25, 2010 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

you must be a huge Charlie Sheen fan

and it rubbed off on your interests in pitchers ever since you saw “Major league”

by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 25, 2010 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Schoeneweis and Ranaudo

Schoeneweis did get out every lefty he faced this year in ST, so his numbers were a bit inflated. He probably had a very little chance coming in to make the team, but it sounds like he was told he would at least have a chance. The guy definitely has had a rough time lately, but in the end, his spot on the team wont be a major contributor anyway. Hopefully he can catch on somewhere and earn some money to maintain his livelihood.

And on Ranaudo, I know its very early, but he is a Boras client, no way the Brewers take him. Even if hes injured, hes probably going to want top 5 pick money. Lots of time for draft lists to develop. If all stayed equal right now, Id look for Josh Sale, HS OF from Seattle, best HS hitter in the draft.

by backtocali on Mar 24, 2010 11:10 AM CDT reply actions  

I think he (Sale) was the guy the Brewers selected in the previous mock draft.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 24, 2010 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don’t know if the Brewers would take him (both the fact that he might ask for relatively a lot, and also the fact that the Brewers might be especially wary of injured pitchers these days) but that would potentially be a great pick. Weren’t some people ranking Ranaudo #1 even above Harper, before he got injured?

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Mar 24, 2010 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also

I don’t know much about Sale other than what’s written in that mock draft, but I don’t see the Brewers taking yet another big hitter with a questionable defensive position. I expect they’ll go after pitching early again this year, whoever falls to them.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Mar 24, 2010 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's exactly what I was thinking, too

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 24, 2010 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

I would go pitching as well

Of course depending on what is available, but the lists that I look at right now have Sale ranked where the Brewers pick, as a best available option.

Its sooooooo early to start thinking about pitchers who might be available. I would really prefer a pitcher for this team as well. If one of the HS kids were avaailabe, even if he had a high price tag, I would love to see the Brewers go in that direction.

by backtocali on Mar 24, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'd prefer college pitchiing

I know I always reference it, and I can’t remember where I read it, but there was a stat that said college pitchers have approximately a 6% chance to have a significant impact in the big leagues whereas HS pitchers have only a 3% chance.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 24, 2010 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

I would think those percentages apply to position players as well.

In any case, I think going after HS pitching has more risk, but then you potentially will “beat” the other organizations in getting his rights.

by sjlee on Mar 24, 2010 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

I guess

And I get that you could possibly get that guy to the big leagues at an age that is younger than the college pitcher. It

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 24, 2010 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

It depends on the study

And what time period, rounds, etc that you look at.

Rany Jazayerli had an big look at it a few years ago. I don’t understand math so just skipped to the conclusion:

Let’s sum up the important findings here:


No matter how you slice the data, college hitters come up on top every time, usually by a wide margin;

High-school pitchers are still the riskiest selections in the first round, but the margin is much, much less than it used to be. It is no longer appropriate to make a blanket statement that it is always a mistake to take a high school pitcher in the first round;

With the exception of the first round, high-school pitchers are almost exactly as valuable as high-school hitters.

College pitchers are, generally speaking, not significantly more valuable than high-school players in any round.

If I wanted to sum all five articles into 40 words or less, I could do it like this:

You’re going to get about 50% more value from a college hitter than from any other draft pick. High-school pitchers are somewhat riskier than other picks in the first round.

I’m sure there has been updated studies, but this is the one I remember most. When it comes down to it, I think a lot of it just depends on the individual kid, his skillset, background, etc. All those unknown variables make it hard for me to really have an opinion as to whether I want the Brewers to take a HS or College pitcher.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Mar 24, 2010 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thinking about it logically

college pitchers have gone through one more level of weeding out than high school pitchers. They have had at least a couple more years to mature and avoid injury.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Mar 24, 2010 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Couldnt agree more

But the Brewers have a pick this year that is in the top half of the draft, whee the talent available, especially if in a HS arm, is going to be impact level.

Looking over the past few drafts, in the pick 10-15 range, guys like Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke, Ethan Martin, Madison Bumgarner and Phillippe Aumont were taken in front of college guys like Joe Savery, Andrew Cashner, Joshua Fields, Aaron Crow, Alex White, and Steven Jenkins. I would almost, in ever case take one of the HS guys listed here over the college. Cashner and Crow would be nice, but the HS guys are bigger impact arms, imo.

by backtocali on Mar 24, 2010 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

MLB Daily Dish

Lists the Brewers as a possible suitor for Diamondbacks C Chris Snyder.

Probably not a realistic option, but would definitely be an upgrade over Zaun. But the Zaun money is already spent, why go and acquire another guy who is going to make a hefty sum?

If the Dbacks picked up a lot of the salary, he could probably be had for Lorenzo Cain and any one of Jake Odirizzi, Wily Peralta or Cody Scarpetta.

Upside to this would be more production at the C spot, gives Lucroy another year to develop (lets face it, even as a rookie, if ready next year, probably doesnt put up huge performance). And if Lucroy does not prove to be a upper level catcher, youve got someone ready to go.

All moot because of Zaun though. Interesting thought, would be a nice guy to have on hand for a couple of years.

by backtocali on Mar 24, 2010 11:52 AM CDT reply actions  

Why would we want to give up a good CF prospect and a good pitching prospect

for a catcher who is a career .233 hitter? Sure he’s got more power than Zaun or Kottaras, but those two are still a pretty good upgrade from last year.

by BrewHaHeather on Mar 24, 2010 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

of those 4

I wouldnt really qualify Cain or Scarpetta as “good” prospects. Odirizzi and Peralta have some upside, with Peralta being the most solid of the group.

Again, its a moot point because of Zaun, but giving up a couple of mid range prospects for a solid MLB catcher for 2 to 3 years is not a bad idea.

by backtocali on Mar 24, 2010 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cain isn't a good prospect?

He’s 24, had a disastrous year coming off injuries last year but put up a 793 OPS across two levels(A+ 789, AA 849) as a 22 YO in ’08, had a 635 SLG in the ’08 AFL, has plus speed and it appears he plays at least an average CF and an above average RF.

If he returns to form this year, he is the starting RF from 2011-16 unless he displaces Gomez in CF.

When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved

by Getting Yosted on Mar 24, 2010 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

I dont see it

BA, Sickels and other prospect rating sites arent very high on him either. I would call him an average prospect. He was very good and on the way up after 08, but if he isnt on the opening day roster ’11 he probably gets released.

Lawrie will be the RF once Hart is gone, or Gamel, imo.

by backtocali on Mar 24, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

they'll position shift Lawrie again?

what makes you think he won’t stick at second and replace Weeks when weeks gets too expensive?

by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 24, 2010 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

Have you actually scouted him?

Because I haven’t. But I have read that scouts are actually surprised that his defense at 2nd isn’t bad.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 24, 2010 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ive not seen him extensively

but the reports that I have read are just the opposite.

Stone hands and clumsy.

He definitely has a body that can be worked on though. And if he were to stick at 2B, his bat plays up big.

by backtocali on Mar 24, 2010 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Really?

I think the one thing I saw about him at 2B said the scout was surprised he wasn’t terrible defensively there. Didn’t say he was good or that he could stick there, necessarily, just that they were somewhat surprised.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 24, 2010 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Remember when Snyder got hurt against the Brewers?

I’m sure the guys here do.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 24, 2010 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

oh, THAT injury

I remember now

went on the 15-day disabled list because of the testicular fracture he suffered. Snyder was behind the plate catching when he was struck in the testicles by a foul ball.

fortunately video links seem to be down.

by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 24, 2010 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

There isn't a way I could forget a man fracturing his testicle.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 24, 2010 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

Kyle

When are you going to admit that you are the mastermind behind @notkenmacha?

"Baseball is a funny game, it's a round ball that comes in a square box."

by JD View From Bernies Chalet on Mar 24, 2010 12:20 PM CDT reply actions  

So...

Are we actually going to see Hart wearing the goggles or was it all a show for management to make them believe he was actually wanting to improve?

We’re less than two weeks from Opening Day.

by sjlee on Mar 24, 2010 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's in my top 5

Of things people have said will be different this spring that aren’t actually going to change, right after the alteration to Suppan’s pitching motion that Peterson suggested.

by nullacct on Mar 24, 2010 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sorry to go all Roundabout Nazi on the Schoeneweis thread.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Mar 24, 2010 1:44 PM CDT reply actions  

there's a sentence

that you don’t hear every day.

Q: Did you ever scout Corey Hart? What seems to be holding him back from being a good hitter for AVG?

A: The slider away. And that facial hair.

-Keith Law ESPN chat 2/11/10

by molitorfan on Mar 24, 2010 7:51 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

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