Braun is MLB's Best Baserunner?

by The Rij on Mar 25, 2010 3:12 PM CDT

Alright, everyone knows what a phenomenal hitter Ryan Braun is. However, I thought it was interesting to find that Bill James' Handbook lists Braun (along with Chone Figgins and Chase Utley) as the best baserunner(s) in all of baseball when you remove stolen bases and focus on what players did once they were on base.

Without steals the equation focuses on taking the extra base successfully and things of that nature. Go from first to third on a single, earn a point. Get gunned down trying to stretch, lose a point. So obviously he's rewarding being intelligently aggressive. Using that formula all three players listed above scored a plus-27.

Here's the top five list as seen in an ESPN Insider blog:

Braun, +27
Utley, +27
Figgins, +27
Colby Rasmus, +26
Maicer Izturis, +25

Ironically, the worst baserunner in all of baseball is Milwaukee's old left fielder, El Caballo himself, Carlos Lee with a minus-35 mark. Here's the bottom five:

Lee, -35
Juan Rivera, -35
Yadier Molina, -29
Adrian Gonzalez, -28
Mike Lowell, -27

My favorite item from that blog had to be that both Lee and Rivera were thrown out trying to go from first to third eight times a piece last year! EIGHT! I know the Angels preach an aggressive approach on the basepaths, but c'mon.

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no?

Fielder, Howard, Guerrero, Pujols…I think this stat might be skewed.

by nogoat on Mar 25, 2010 4:05 PM CDT reply actions

I think it’s because those dudes are slow and know they’re slow, so while they don’t gain many positive points they don’t lose many points either.

by warwick5s on Mar 25, 2010 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions

It's a pretty straight forward stat

that basically measures instinct and/or intelligence, not merely speed. As long as a slow guy doesn’t get thrown out, he’s not really hurting the team. He’s not helping that much on the basepaths, I guess, but I’d rather have someone like Pujols who probably knows his limits than someone like Caballo who probably thinks he’s fast (and so do a lot of fans, probably) and makes stupid outs.

Wolf out. Hawk in(s).

by baumann on Mar 25, 2010 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions

Utley

I know SB aren’t counted, but the guy was 23 for 23 in that last year, too.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 25, 2010 5:17 PM CDT reply actions

Yeah, Braun was 20-for-26, so he and Utley are both very savvy on the bases.

If it bleeds, we can kill it...

by The Rij on Mar 25, 2010 5:20 PM CDT reply actions

Rivera is the Braunophile's favorite Angel

(Must be a left fielder thing….) Since breaking his leg in 2007, he isn’t the fleetest of foot, that’s for sure. Though he’s dropped some weight coming into ST this year, and has been looking pretty good so far. Are GIDPs included in the numbers? (Anecdotally that seems to be one of Rivera’s main issues.) The Angels still go 1st-to-3rd better than any other team, which is probably why Figgy and Izturzis are both up there in the top 5.

I’m actually a little surprised to not see Vlad Guerrero on the “worst” list — if you want to see some baserunning gaffes, watch Vlad over the past several years as he’s lost his old 40/40 speed.

by Brew Angel on Mar 25, 2010 5:50 PM CDT reply actions

Gotta remember Vlad only played 100 games last year. You’d have to really work to rack up a minus-35 in such limited time.

Another jewel from that blog was that Mike Lowell was on first base 10 times when a double was hit and never scored. That’s JJ Hardy territory.

As for GIDP, it’s not mentioned so I assume not.

If it bleeds, we can kill it...

by The Rij on Mar 25, 2010 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions

At least Lowell has an excuse

Lowell’s got a bad hip. Hardy just can’t run.

by morineko on Mar 25, 2010 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Braun runs smart.

Ryan Braun runs with his head not just his feet. He just does not make stupid mistakes while on the base path, Aaron had it, Yount had it and Molitor had it. Braun is more than just a big bat in the lineup.

by brewtownsports on Mar 25, 2010 6:16 PM CDT reply actions

Interesting stuff

What’s the scale here? It’s definitely not runs, because 27 runs above average would be absurd.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Mar 25, 2010 6:25 PM CDT reply actions

Here it is...

— If you go 1st to 3rd on a single, it’s +1, if you’re thrown out in the same situation, it’s minus-1. Same goes for trying to go first to home on a double.

— If you take as many bases as the batter got, then it’s nothing.

— For basestealing, it’s +1 for a steal, and minus-2 for getting caught.

For these guys the SB part was removed, so it’s strictly based on what they did while on base.

If it bleeds, we can kill it...

by The Rij on Mar 25, 2010 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions

Straightforward but still pretty useful

I was wondering how they could take into account the fact that a slugger behind the guy on base would make it pretty easy to go from 1st to 3rd when he hits a double. While it might be a little skewed in the sense of Fielder not legging out as many doubles as someone like well, Ryan Braun, it’s probably not a dramatic effect.

I wonder where Corey Hart ranks. He sure takes a lot of extra bases, but he gets caught a fair amount, too.

by ecocd on Mar 25, 2010 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions

yeah...i was wondering about the guy-behind-you-effect

I think if you’re +5 and the guy behind you is -4, you should only get a +1.

by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 25, 2010 8:39 PM CDT up reply actions

um...at least if corrected for the number of times you got on because of the guy behind you

it wasn’t always fielder that advanced braun;)

by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 25, 2010 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions

If you take as many bases as the batter got, then it’s nothing

I don’t think this corrects for much.

It’s suspicious that these guys bat in front of 4 of the biggest bats in MLB.

I think each of Fielder, Howard, Pujols and Guerrero probably have a heck of a lot of singles that drive guys on first to third. Probably a lot of doubles that drive guys on first home as well.

by nogoat on Mar 26, 2010 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, I wouldn’t consider it a foolproof system even though it’s Bill James’ brainchild. As someone else pointed out it doesn’t account for getting picked off, which is a terrible baserunning play.

Also, what you said could be taken further. If the guy batting is slow maybe he only gets a single when someone with more speed takes two. Then it’s easy to go first to third on a single. Not sure how you’d establish that without seeing the hits, though.

Still, interesting points being raised I think.

If it bleeds, we can kill it...

by The Rij on Mar 26, 2010 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Does getting picked off first after you were HBP count against them?

Because I remember Braun doing that several times last season.

by BrewHaHeather on Mar 25, 2010 9:25 PM CDT reply actions

Does BRef count a pickoff as a CS?

’Cause if so, that actually never happened last year, according to their gamelog.

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Mar 26, 2010 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions

Okay, apparently they don't count it as a CS

That happened once last year; April 27, Pirates at Miller Park. Braun was hit by Jeff Karstens to start the 3rd, and then picked off first with Prince up; Prince struck out, Cameron homered, then JJ struck out to end the inning. Brewers ended up winning the game 10-5.

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Mar 26, 2010 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions

It also happened on the infamous Dempster-Braun game

When Ryan Dempster “hit” Braun in the 5th inning (and was immediately picked off), Braun stared him down later, and a whole bunch of hooplah over nothing ensued.

by BrewHaHeather on Mar 26, 2010 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, I was going to say,

I thought that happened a few times. He’s been picked off a whole bunch over the last two years. I think that should be a -2.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Mar 26, 2010 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions

According to the play-by-play there

Braun was caught stealing second, and it shouldn’t be a mislabeled pickoff throw, ’cause it says it went from the catcher to the shortstop

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Mar 26, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions

Hmm, I was at that game

and I could’ve sworn I remember him being picked off after he was hit. Then again, I could just be crazy.

by BrewHaHeather on Mar 26, 2010 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions

I can’t find anything about pickoffs being part of the formula. For what it’s worth, BR says he was picked off four times in 2009, giving him 10 for his career to go along with two cases of getting a caught stealing on a pickoff attempt (where he broke for second and the pitcher went to first).

If it bleeds, we can kill it...

by The Rij on Mar 26, 2010 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions

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