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Monday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while securing the proper equipment.

We're almost there, folks: One week from today, we'll be celebrating Opening Day. This last week of spring training is going to be Prediction Week here at BCB. Check back later today for Jordan's recap of our Community Projections, and keep checking back as the week goes along for various predictions and the 2010 Over/Under contest.

Corey Hart finally picked up a hit yesterday, but it was his first good news in days and, even then, the news wasn't that good. Hart went 1-for-3 with two strikeouts yesterday (and was caught stealing), after going 0-for-4 Saturday. Anthony Witrado says he watched Hart's at bats Saturday but didn't learn anything about why he's struggling. He did pass along one tidbit of information, though: Hart has been wearing contacts at the plate. He had previously said contacts weren't an option, so it looks like it's possible he's ditched the goggles.

The Brewers made their final trip to Tucson yesterday, but Alcides Escobar and Rickie Weeks weren't on the bus: instead, they stayed behind in Maryvale to get some extra work holding runners on second base. It was an issue in a Saturday's game, and Ken Macha wanted to make sure it won't be an issue during the season.

While Weeks and Escobar work on holding runners on, Ken Macha has told Carlos Gomez to focus on getting on base and improving his sub-.300 career OBP. Gomez is 10-for-10 stealing bases this spring, so he could run wild if he can consistently get on.

It was also a day to forget for Doug Davis, who allowed six earned runs on 13 baserunners (nine hits and four walks) in five innings. With that said, he did strike out three, and ten of his twelve other outs came via ground ball. The Brewers didn't do much on offense either, leading Ken Macha to say "We didn't show much."

Among those who didn't show much: Carlos Villanueva, who allowed two runs on three hits (including the game's only home run) in two innings yesterday. It's still possible, if not likely, that he'll be optioned to AAA to open up a spot for a seventh starting pitcher, but he told Tom Haudricourt he's trying not to think about it.

It's been widely considered a given for a while now, but an official announcement on Joe Inglett's status as the final member of the Brewer bench has yet to be made. Tom Haudricourt and Anthony Witrado have a look at Inglett's versatility: On top of his infield positions, Inglett can play the outfield and has even offered to catch in an emergency.

I'll admit, I've been a little concerned about Trevor Hoffman's late and somewhat slow start in Brewer camp, so here's some reassuring news: Padres infielder Matt Antonelli had this to say after facing Hoffman on Friday:

In my first at-bat I got to face Trevor Hoffman. It was my first time facing him in my career which was pretty cool, even though he struck me out on his change-up. That pitch is no joke. It really looks like it comes out of his hand like a fastball but stops halfway to the plate.

Elsewhere in camp minutiae:

It's probably nothing, but it's possible the Brewers could look to alleviate their roster issues via trade. Manny Parra was one of several names mentioned in this MLBTR post about the Mariners, who are reportedly looking to add a lefty starter (FanShot). It's hard to tell what the Brewers would want for Parra, but Dave Cameron of USS Mariner has already approved a transaction.

Elsewhere in potentially unsubstantiated rumors: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (rarely a reliable source) is listing Joe Mauer and Mark Teixeira's deals (pictured here) as the type of contract it would take to get a long-term deal done with Prince Fielder. I would be very surprised to see the Brewers make an offer on that scale, and to be honest I'd be disappointed, too. Fielder is a rare talent as a hitter and a marketable draw in Milwaukee, but he's not worth that level of risk.

Admittedly, we're pretty high on Yovani Gallardo around here, but where would you rank him against some of the game's other young talents? If you had to offer one pitcher a six-year deal, Minor League Ball wants to know if you'd take Gallardo, Matt Garza, Johnny Cueto or Jair Jurrjens.

I'm on the record as being completely uninterested in fantasy baseball, but this is a nice honor anyway: James Bailey of Hardball Cooperative lists Braun as baseball's most valuable fantasy outfielder.

In the minors:

  • I haven't seen it mentioned elsewhere, but Brewerfan.net is reporting the Brewers have signed catcher Ben Johnson to a minor league deal. Johnson is 28 years old and split 2009 between AA and AAA in the Angels organization, where he played in 76 games and hit .214/.295/.363. With Carlos Corporan moving on this offseason, Johnson is the likely candidate to fill his spot as Angel Salome's backup in Nashville. Martin Maldonado will likely back up Jonathan Lucroy in Huntsville.
  • Bernie's Crew has some minor league predictions for this season. They're picking Brett Lawrie as organizational player of the year, and Adam Heether as a candidate for biggest disappointment.
  • Baseball Intellect has the second half of their Brewer prospect rankings, covering positions 6-15.

In predictions/projections/rankings:

Around baseball:

Athletics: Signed Chad Gaudin to a major league deal.
Blue Jays: Released outfielder Joey Gathright. 
Cubs: Re-signed pitcher Mike Parisi, who had been their Rule 5 selection from the Cardinals but rejected an outright assignment and became a free agent.
Dodgers: Doug Mientkiewicz has been told he won't make the team and left camp.
Giants: Signed Matt Cain to a contract extension through 2012, buying out his first year of free agency.
Indians: Russell Branyan will open the season on the DL with a herniated disc in his back.
Orioles: Acquired catcher Steven Lerud from the Royals for a PTBNL or cash.
Red Sox: Signed Scott Schoeneweis to a minor league deal (FanShot), and acquired infielder Kevin Frandsen from the Giants for a PTBNL or cash.

Schoeneweis, who was adamant about being unwilling to play in the minors for the Brewers, may end up having to do so for the Red Sox, unless he'd like to retire. His new deal doesn't allow him to opt out until April 15, when the minor league season will have been underway for more than a week.

Elsewhere in Dodger notes, pitcher Ronald Belisario, who had missed most of camp with visa issues, has finally reported to Arizona but will open the season on the restricted list.

"Analyzing stats" is certainly a favorite pastime of the internet baseball fan, but "complaining about other stats" is a close second. Here's Joe Posnanski with far too many words decrying the injustice of the unearned run.

Something else we talk about every spring: Service time manipulation. With top prospect Jason Heyward opening the season as the everyday right fielder for the Braves, Tom Tango has a look at the practice of holding a player down to delay his arbitration eligibility, and the deception attached to it.

Here's a spring training slice of life: The Blue Jays cut infielder Brad Emaus on his birthday...for the second consecutive season.

The Twins are spending a lot of money lately, so it's a good think they're making it too: They've already sold 2.5 million tickets for Target Field in 2010. They sold 2.4 million at the Metrodome all of last season.

I'm honestly surprised this hasn't been mentioned as a possibility at least once during Brewer camp: The Red Sox might use a six man rotation when Daisuke Matsuzaka is healthy enough to pitch again.

Speaking of making money, here's a chance for you to make some: Vegas Watch is giving away $300 to the fan who wins their MLB Over/Under contest. As an added bonus, here's an easy over: The Brewers are projected for 80.5 wins. (h/t Beyond the Box Score)

I'm not even sure I knew he was in camp, but apparently former Brewer Greg Aquino has a chance to make the Cubs.

A couple of notable Brewer historic notes from over the weekend:

  • On Sunday's date in 1977, the Giants traded Mike Caldwell to the Reds. Caldwell would only pitch 14 games as a Red before being traded to the Brewers, where he would go on to pitch 23 complete games in 1978 and win 102 games over eight seasons.
  • On Saturday's date in 1992, the Brewers traded Gary Sheffield to the Padres for Ricky Bones, Matt Mieske and Jose Valentin. Sheffield, who hit .194/.277/.320 in his final season as a Brewer, won the NL batting title while hitting .330/.385/.580 in his first season as a Padre. He lasted just a season and a half in San Diego before becoming Florida's problem.

There's an interesting peppering of two-time Brewers in today's collection of birthdays:

  • 1974-1980 Brewer and former Brewer bullpen and pitching coach Bill Castro turns 58 today.
  • 1997 and 2002 Brewer Alex Ochoa turns 38 today.
  • 2003-04 and 2006 Brewer Dan Kolb turns 35 today.
  • 2009 Brevard County Manatee Brett Whiteside turns 22 today.
  • 2002 Brewer Ryan Christenson turned 36 yesterday.
  • 1989-94 and 2000 Brewer Jaime Navarro turned 43 on Saturday.
  • 2009 Helena Brewer and BCB #7 Community Prospect Jake Odorizzi turned 20 on Saturday.

If there wasn't enough news for you in this morning's Mug, or you missed something over the weekend, scroll down or click here for Noah's Weekend Mug.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to ponder moving to Arizona.

Drink up.

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If the Mariners have interest in a stop gap LH...

…Narveson might also be of interest. Though he hasn’t proven enough to return much value.

Particularly as it relates to Parra, I would have unease at the prospect of making a deal with Z, and getting fleeced.

by infield fly on Mar 29, 2010 7:58 AM CDT reply actions  

Poznanski

I get what he means in his first italicized block, but even the rulebook treats a play like that as two separate decisions: Rule 10.12(a)(1) for the stop and Rule 10.12(a)(5) for the throw. If the fielder makes a fantastic stop, gets up and has time to throw out the runner, and throws the ball away, that’s an error. He had the chance to get the out and didn’t. Just because the ball was “ticketed for a hit” doesn’t mean the fielder has no chance of turning it into an out.

If he doesn’t want to rely on official scorer decisions or the rulebook, he should use run average (RA) rather than ERA and add times reached on error (and fielder’s choice?) to calculate OBP.

He mentioned team unearned runs in passing. Baseball-Reference.com doesn’t keep track of them, if I remember correctly. I believe they come up with team R and ER by summing the team’s pitchers’ stats, which ignores team unearned runs. That’s why their team runs allowed stats are sometimes different than mlb.com’s.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 29, 2010 8:13 AM CDT reply actions  

Lots of times, the result is even worse after a bad throw than if that hit gets by the player in the first place.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Mar 29, 2010 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not surprised

…that Dave Cameron approves of a swap. Those FanGraphs guys are pretty high on Parra for this year.

Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time

http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/

by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 29, 2010 8:21 AM CDT reply actions  

Not surprising that Cameron wants to buy low on Manny Parra

He’s not just a statistical anomaly, he’s a fangraphs favorite.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Mar 29, 2010 8:22 AM CDT reply actions  

I should have suspected this but didn't realize it until researching for my note on SBNation.com/mlb

Carlos Gomez’s ten stolen bases lead all players this spring.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 29, 2010 8:25 AM CDT reply actions  

Mike Caldwell Error....

Mike Caldwell was traded from the Giants to the Cards to the Reds to the Brewers…

Caldwell never played for the Cards though, but he came from the Reds via StL. — Exactly like Rollie Fingers, who the Brewers got from the Cards, shortly after they had acquired him from the Padres.

I always remember this, as one of my big WTF moments as a young child was the 1977 Topps set including Caldwell as a Cardinal, and a couple of dead guys.

Here is the Caldwell, in his snazzy airbrushed hat.

As a side note, Jim Baumer, who preceded Harry Dalton, had a largely unsuccessful tenure, should be remembered for his two great trades, the Caldwell trade and the Cooper trade — which really set the team up well for Dalton.

Bamberger (who was Weaver’s PC in Balt), really did a great job with Caldwell, turning him around for 2 solid seasons. Had Guidry not been insane in 1978, Caldwell may have won a Cy Young.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 29, 2010 9:25 AM CDT reply actions  

By the way...

Putting a 1977 Topps Mike Caldwell, in a screw-down card holder, is not a good use of said holder. Do not do this at home.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 29, 2010 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

Are you kidding?

He’s rocking the perm and the stache. You’ll want to preserve both of them.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Mar 29, 2010 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

That's awesome

If you look really close, you can see a nest of baby robins up there.

I think the lack of mustache is noticeable. It’s like he’s saying “I would have a mustache, but that might make me look ridiculous.”

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Mar 29, 2010 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Another interesting Caldwell note

In 1982 the Phillies offered Ryne Sandberg to the Brewers for Mike Caldwell. The Brewers, of course, turned down the deal.

If they had accepted the trade, they still would have won the division, and probably would have won at least one more pennant during that time.

by backtocali on Mar 29, 2010 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions  

Huh.

Caldwell didn’t age well either — he was awesome in 1978, very good in 1979, and then rather mediocre after that.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 29, 2010 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

I was surpised by the numbers

Looked up WAR values in 82 for Sandberg, Gantner and Caldwell and was quite surprised to see how little impact Caldwell had on the pennant team. If I remember correctly, Sandberg was the only player that year with a WAR above 1, and I think he was in the 2 area. And if you look at his career after that, his output, although maybe not as productive in pitcher friendly County Stadium.

I think it was either 87 or 92 that they would have won the pennant with Sandberg as their 2b. Could you imagine an infield of Cooper, Sandberg, Molitor and Yount?

by backtocali on Mar 29, 2010 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yount was CF by then.

Molitor was hurt a lot in 85-88, the depth would have been very nice.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Mar 29, 2010 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Fielder will be

A Yankee or Red Sox when his contract goes up. Braun is the franchise player. IMO.

Goooooo-mez!

by Drew C on Mar 29, 2010 9:26 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Doubt it

The Sox are rumored to be going after Adrian Gozalez (in fact, SD has it as a foregone conclusion that he will be there) thus solving their 1B issue, and the Yanks already have Teixeira locked up for years.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Mar 29, 2010 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm telling ya

I’d love to see a deal before the deadline with the A’s, Rangers or Rays, depending on which of the 3 want his services the most to make a playoff run.

All 3 of those teams have mouth watering pitching talent to spare in the minor leagues. And they can then turn around and deal him again next offseason.

If that were to happen, I wouldnt be shocked to see a deal from the team that got him first, to the Phillies, and a long term contract signed like they did with Halladay up to age 30 or 32, where Dominic Brown is involved as well as Ryan Howard.

by backtocali on Mar 29, 2010 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

If he were to be dealt

I don’t think 1) it will be this year and 2) that the A’s or Rangers are in the mix. The A’s have Chris Carter coming up and won’t drop that much on a DH. The Rangers have both Chris Davis and Justin Smoak there, and are in “Build from Within” mode where they won’t make a huge deadline deal.

The Rays make sense, but Prince is team controlled 2011 make issues for their budget. I see more of a fit with the White Sox for any team if a trade will go down. Kenny Williams is not afraid to pull the trigger, and they have some assetts that would land Prince

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Mar 29, 2010 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

My bet is an Astro

Berkman’s contract runs out as Prince becomes a FA. And Ed Wade is the type to pull the trigger and give up his best prospects for a move that won’t move his team that much higher.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Mar 29, 2010 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Prospects

Are we talking about Prospects??? And the Astros?

Wouldnt mind having Bud Norris or Jordan Lyles in the system, Jason Castro isnt going anywhere, but they have nothing after that above rookie ball.

by backtocali on Mar 29, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

You are under the assumption that a trade will happen

I am under the assumption that he plays out 2 years here and goes to FA.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Mar 29, 2010 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Opinion

Whats your opinion on this? you too Hyatt…

Opinion on the Fielder situation? Not to beat a dead horse, but as many of you know I think that a trade should happen, to improve the overall situation of the farm system, and thus franchise 2 years down the road going forward.

What do you wish, or think should happen? And if you are of the same opinion that I am, does that mean that your statement comes from a lack of faith in Doug Melvin, or Mark A? to do what is best for the long term fortunes of the organization?

by backtocali on Mar 29, 2010 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

My opinion is that he should be traded, probably next year, but contingent on level of contention this year, of course.

My assumption that he hits free agency is based on there being some evidence, however flimsy, that they’re trying to sign him long term, and that there’s no evidence they’re willing to trade him.

That’ll probably change, but given the information available at this second, I think they’re inclined to resign him. I think that will change, but there’s an infinite number of possible scenarios, I’ll just go with the one that seems likely at this point in time.

Shruggity

by Mykenk on Mar 29, 2010 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

My opinion on this

I think Fielder will either sign a long term deal next off season, or be traded in the middle of next year to a contender who needs help. I don’t think it will happen this year since teams have learned not to give up the farm since the Teixeira deal cleared out the Braves system 3 years ago. The price for Prince will be in that 2-3 High quality prospects and 2 interesting guys. Personally, I think a Gordon Beckham, Dan Hudson, Jordan Danks package gets it done this season, but there’s no way Chicago does that.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Mar 29, 2010 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not that anyone really cares about my opinion...

(See my recommendation to trade Cameron last year and get something back when he left the team, since we weren’t going to risk the $$ to offer him arbitration.)

…but I’m with Hyatt on this one. Unless we’re clearly out of contention this season, the FO will look to either sign Prince long-term next offseason (unlikely) or give him arb $$ and trade him approaching the deadline during 2011.

by Brew Angel on Mar 29, 2010 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

oh please

oh please oh please oh please get rid of Manny Parra

Package him and Corey Hart for someone that will do something with some regularity

by nullacct on Mar 29, 2010 10:12 AM CDT reply actions  

Nope

I read the paragraph about someone wanting Manny Parra and got all excited. Nothing against him personally, I just despise inconsistency.

by nullacct on Mar 29, 2010 10:29 AM CDT reply actions  

Did we ever get a reason why

Parra melted down last season, aside from having issues between his ears?

by nullacct on Mar 29, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why does it have to be mental?

It’s control and command. It’s a skill.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Mar 29, 2010 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's partly why I don't think he will bounce back all that much

I don’t assume he has improved at that skill. Maybe he’ll be less unlucky, but you don’t get a parade for going from an ERA of 6.00-something to 5.00-something. I hope I’m wrong.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Mar 29, 2010 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I hope that you are right

or this country is going to waste a lot of money on parades for mediocre pitchers.

Q: Did you ever scout Corey Hart? What seems to be holding him back from being a good hitter for AVG?

A: The slider away. And that facial hair.

-Keith Law ESPN chat 2/11/10

by molitorfan on Mar 29, 2010 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I was going to post a comment over at Tango's

But in the course of looking up numbers that it is dumb to play service time games when you are close to contending got really depressed all over again.

In 2007 Craig Counsell had a -1.148 WPA and Tony Graffanino had a -0.933 WPA thru May. Cubs won the division by 2 games. /sad trombone

When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved

by Getting Yosted on Mar 29, 2010 11:15 AM CDT reply actions  

I've actually covered this before

Link

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Mar 29, 2010 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

I also covered another part of your post

here

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Mar 29, 2010 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

So a miracle happens

and the team is down 1 in the seventh inning of a Suppan start, Macha fell asleep somewhere around the fourth and is just now waking to realize they need to move a runner over and he doesn’t want to waste a pinch hitter. So they’ve got Suppan’s bunting going for them, which is nice.

But I’m not sure playing for one run in a game where the Brewers have already scored 6 is the best play, even for a groggy manager looking for a cup of coffee.

When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved

by Getting Yosted on Mar 29, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

We can always have him pinch hit, lay down a bunt, and let CarGo run for him.

Oh, wait, you can’t have someone run for the hitter until he gets on base? I saw “Brewers” and assumed we were talking beer-league softball.

by Brew Angel on Mar 29, 2010 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

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