Prediction Week: Results from our Community NL Central Prediction
by Kyle Lobner on Mar 31, 2010 7:00 PM CDT
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintThanks to everyone that participated in our Brew Crew Ball division predictions. All told, we got 178 predictions. After eliminating five unrealistic predictions (any prediction with a team winning less than 55 or more than 110 was wiped out), we had a sample size of 173 entrants. Here are our predicted NL Central standings:
| Team | Avg W | Avg Finish |
| Cardinals | 89.6 | 1.35 |
| Brewers | 86.1 | 2 |
| Cubs | 80.2 | 3.3 |
| Reds | 77.0 | 4 |
| Astros | 71.0 | 5.1 |
| Pirates | 67.3 | 5.75 |
All told, I'm pretty happy with these results. This is a pretty fair approximation of my expectations for the division this season.
Other questions of note:
Will the NL Wild Card come from the NL Central?
| Response | Vote |
| Yes | 51% |
| No | 49% |
Who will be the Brewers Most Valuable Player in 2010?
| Player | Vote |
| Ryan Braun | 48% |
| Prince Fielder | 31% |
| Rickie Weeks | 9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | 8% |
| Randy Wolf | 2% |
| Other | 1% |
Which Brewer's performance is most critical to the team's success in 2010?
| Player | Vote |
| Rickie Weeks | 28% |
| Randy Wolf | 16% |
| Yovani Gallardo | 15% |
| Manny Parra | 8% |
| Carlos Gomez | 6% |
| Alcides Escobar | 4% |
| Prince Fielder | 4% |
| Corey Hart | 4% |
| Dave Bush | 4% |
| Trevor Hoffman | 3% |
| Doug Davis | 2% |
| Ryan Braun | 2% |
| Gregg Zaun | 1% |
| Casey McGehee | 1% |
| Chris Narveson | 1% |
| Jeff Suppan | 1% |
| Other | 1% |
38 comments
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You elimated projections with win totals of 55 or 110 games
But let submissions with Jeff Suppan being key to the Brewers success stand!?
Had to draw the line somewhere.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
I voted McGehee
based on the projected lineup I could see a lot of teams pitching around Prince if someone isn’t performing well behind him.
Q: Did you ever scout Corey Hart? What seems to be holding him back from being a good hitter for AVG?
A: The slider away. And that facial hair.
-Keith Law ESPN chat 2/11/10
McGehee's a good choice
Though it’s nice to know we have options @ AAA if he’s not doing well. I wish he were having a better spring.
I think it’s Bush. If we can get 200 innings of 4.50 ERA from the #4 guy, I think our chances of reaching the playoffs go way up.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I'm not too concerned about McGehee... at least not yet.
First off, it’s ST. I don’t expect Zaun to hit .450 this season nor do I expect McGehee to hit .172. During the regular season, a slump or hot streak lasting 20-something games isn’t unusual.
depends on your perspective
the suppan one could be valid.
ie, if he magically turns in an awesome season, it would propel us to the playoffs.
Overestimate his value and sit out for the year?
Shruggity
by Mykenk on Apr 1, 2010 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Braun and Fielder
I’m rather shocked that so few people (6%) named either of these two most critical to the team’s success. I think many people are just taking them for granted. In my eyes, the key to the Brewers success is about 30% Braun, 30% Fielder, and 40% everyone else. If either one of those two go down, were sunk. We can somewhat survive losing almost anyone else.
www.inbetweenhops.com
I think
most people took it more as what player most needs to play above what people expect them to do. If you were saying which player would you least want injured during the season, Braun and Fielder would certainly get the most votes, probably with Gallardo getting a good amount as well.
"Probably won't make a decision until after the decision starts"
Right
I think it’s a given that losing Braun or Fielder for an extended period of time would sink us. Most people around these parts get that, I’d imagine.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
My bigger point is...
Although I agree with both of you, I do think that sometimes people tend to overlook the impact of superstars and overstate the impact of mid-level and fringe players on a team’s success – as weird as that sounds. Maybe it’s stating the obvious that Braun and Fielder are the keys to the Brewers success, or maybe it’s taking them for granted – I don’t know. But when I see guys like Doug Davis, Dave Bush, Corey Hart, Carlos Gomez and Manny Parra on a list like this ahead of Ryan Braun, it makes me wonder. All of those guys could have career years and it would all be negated if Braun goes into a bad 2-month long slump.
The Brewers won 80 game with Rickie Weeks out for most of the year. I think they would have won something like 82 had he stayed healthy. If Braun or Fielder had gotten hurt instead of Weeks, I think they would have won 70.
www.inbetweenhops.com
You're looking at it all wrong...
like the others have stated, it’s a given that the team’s success is tied to how well Braun and Fielder do (there’s a reason why they are the top two in voting for MVP).
But the success of other players is going to be key if the Brewers do well. Look at last season… both Braun and Fielder had great seasons, but the team didn’t even have a winning season.
Bottom line… Braun and Fielder will need to continue to play well for the team to win games, but to get over the hump (and into the playoffs), other players are going to need to step up.
lets just say i don't agree with Weeks
it’s doubtful if he’ll turn in the sustained production of lopez for last season, so we’ll likely take a hit there.
I wish him sucess this season though:) I really hope it is his Breakout Year™
I almost put Macha
But thought that probably wasn’t the point of the question.
Failure is just success rounded down.
They do need to trot onto the field from time-to-time.
But you bring up a good point. In the NFL, NHL and NBA, the coaches do not wear the same uniform as the player… usually a coat and tie.
Why does baseball feel the need? Is it a throwback to when there would be player/managers?
Thats probably part of it
and also — Coaches would look ridiculous wearing shorts (NBA) and football/hockey pants.
Connie Mack never wore a uniform…
I think the NFL tries to market clothes through what the coaches wear on the sidelines…
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Apr 1, 2010 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions
At least some managers wear jackets
I think it looks silly when a 60-year-old sphere of a manager lumbers out of the dugout in a jersey with buttons straining. I don’t know what else they’d wear (suit and tie would be weird), but…yeah.
Failure is just success rounded down.
I'm curious about your statement KL
All told, I’m pretty happy with these results. This is a pretty fair approximation of my expectations for the division this season.
It has the Brewers winning 86 games. I don’t think there were many, if any, projections that had wins that high overall. Is there something you saw this spring that makes you believe the Brewers will be 5 games over .500?
Or were you just talking about the order of finish in the division?
I'd start at the two additional competent starters
and the removal of Suppan from the rotation is where the extra 6 wins this year comes from
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
I've got them at roughly 85 wins.
As Hyatt mentioned, I think the pitching staff is pretty notably improved. Consider the fact that Mike Burns, who made eight starts last year, couldn’t even crack the top ten on the SP depth chart this year.
I think one can expect increased production at catcher, and possibly in right field, and likely dropoffs (offensively at least) at third base and in center, but I’m ok with calling that even.
So if the pitching staff is 5-6 wins better (they were worth 3 WAR last season, worst in baseball), then they’re an 85-86 win team.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Forgot about Suppan
I’m still wary in saying the improved starting rotation is going to overcompensate for the offensive drop off by a full 5 games, but I do think it’s a positive direction.
Of course, if Edmonds can keep up his performance advantage over 2009 Hart from last year, we could gain a full win from that.
I went with Escobar as the player the team hinges on
I would have picked Gomez but I feel that we have backup if he fails to hit. If Escobar and Gomez hit their projections we have a good chance of matching our offensive output from last year. McGehee doesn’t have to hit particularly well to match the production we got at 3B last year. Ditto for Escobar and Gomez. We actually got really mediocre production out of CF last year since we had 15 games where Cameron didn’t start in CF and his replacements mustered a whopping 14 hits and 4 walks in 84 PA with 3 doubles and one HR. Weeks is unlikely to match the offense and defense we got at 2B last year. We had the best defense in the majors at 2B last year by UZR and 2nd best offense by wOBA.
C .242/.331/.317/.648
1B .299/.412/.602/1.014
2B .303/.377/.474/.851
3B .267/.33/.439/.769
SS .247/.306/.355/.661
LF .309/.373/.530/.902
CF .241/.329/.432/.761
RF .270/.340/.425/.765
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
one issue
if saying that Cam’s replacements didn’t hit well, removes that fact that if the replacement player (Gomez) doesn’t play well, gets hurt, or has other issues, we have to plug someone else in there who is a backup for a reason. I think your assumption is that all these regular players are going to play every inning of every game, which is likely not the case.
In fact, Gomez will probably have less impact than Cam because he’ll likely be pulled for a pinch hitter late in the game when we’re down, especially on days where Edmonds is on the bench. Whereas Escobar will “never” be pulled mid-game. Our bench options there are Counsell and Inglett – Counsell is marginally better offensively, but we’re better off having him PH for the pitcher or in a situation where a walk is as good as a hit.
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 1, 2010 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
The bench players
will most likely get at bats where they have the platoon advantage. There are many people who think Gerut is the best option in CF and we should put Gomez in AAA. When Gerut played full time he hit pretty well. His career hitting line is .264/.329/.436/.765 which includes his pretty ugly last year with us. That is a pretty fair estimation of what we could expect from him if he played full time in my opinion. That is why I think we have backup if Gomez doesn’t play well and I went with Escobar.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I suppose he is a better replacement
than whoever would replace Fielder.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
and after looking at Cruz’s minor league stats, maybe not.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Indeed
That he is on a 40-man roster is the Miracle of Luis Cruz.
Failure is just success rounded down.
Who is next in line?
Josh Prince?
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Brent Brewer?
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I don't know
I know that’s why Cruz won’t get DFA’d at all this year, they have no one else to play short in AAA.
Failure is just success rounded down.
Kind of depressing
To bad Yohanes Perez was a huge bust. I remember when he was signed it was a huge deal we got a Cuban defector.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 19 | .568 | 0 | Won 6 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Houston
|
21 | 23 | .477 | 4 | Won 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
20 | 24 | .454 | 5 | Lost 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
18 | 26 | .409 | 7 | Won 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 29 | .340 | 10 | Lost 9 |
(updated 5.25.2012 at 3:41 AM CDT)
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